NHL WAR
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2018
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I have created a Wins Above Replacement stat for the NHL. Here is a link to a video I made going over the basics. Further results of the stat will be uploaded in the days and weeks to come.
What others are you referring to? I am aware of the GAR model and know that corsica hockey has tinkered with WAR before and of the previous existence of the website war on ice. Do you mean one of these? I have not seen any other public WAR models and even those I mentioned before don't seem to have leaderboards or anything of that sort.
Corsica | WAR
Evolving-Hockey
And yes you can look at the leaders of each component if you want.
DTM About Heart's model is no longer public.
What makes this more accurate that GVT ?
From a coaching perspective, I disagree with secondary assists not being viewed as valuable...and contrary to popular belief, roughly one-third of faceoffs don't matter. In-zone draws are important - a lost defensive zone draw is a big no-no. A NZ draw is not nearly as important...
Corsi is, to put it lightly, not en vogue...
From a coaching perspective, I disagree with secondary assists not being viewed as valuable...and contrary to popular belief, roughly one-third of faceoffs don't matter. In-zone draws are important - a lost defensive zone draw is a big no-no. A NZ draw is not nearly as important...
Corsi is, to put it lightly, not en vogue...
Assists value is calculated by the percentage of goals that include that type of assists ( there are more goals that require A1 than require A1 and A2.) Good point on NZ faceoffs.
Corsi is by no means perfect, but it has been heavily adjusted for WAR and is without a doubt better than plus minus.
Ovechkin ,Alex |
Tarasenko ,Vladimir |
Gallagher ,Brendan |
Skinner ,Jeff |
MacKinnon ,Nathan |
Burns, Brent |
Toffoli ,Tyler |
Arvidsson ,Viktor |
Kane ,Evander |
Kane ,Patrick |
Schmaltz ,Nick |
Tierney ,Chris |
Kerfoot ,Alexander |
Larsson ,Johan |
Johansen ,Ryan |
Desharnais ,David |
Stephenson ,Chandler |
Wennberg ,Alexander |
Filppula ,Valtteri |
Sedin ,Henrik |
Stastny ,Paul |
Ekholm, Mattias |
Johansen ,Ryan |
Toews ,Jonathan |
Wennberg ,Alexander |
Couturier ,Sean |
Barzal ,Mathew |
Giroux ,Claude |
Doughty, Drew |
Giordano, Mark |
Kane ,Patrick |
Laine ,Patrik |
Cullen ,Matt |
Boychuk, Johnny |
Burns, Brent |
Braun, Justin |
Tarasenko ,Vladimir |
Barrie, Tyson |
Ceci, Cody |
Ovechkin ,Alex |
Hamilton, Dougie |
Giordano, Mark |
Couturier ,Sean |
Ekholm, Mattias |
Slavin, Jaccob |
Letang, Kris |
Backlund ,Mikael |
Tkachuk ,Matthew |
Miller, Colin |
Giroux ,Claude |
Skjei, Brady |
Barrie, Tyson |
Martinez, Alec |
Kempe ,Adrian |
Filppula ,Valtteri |
Pyatt ,Tom |
Cullen ,Matt |
Orpik, Brooks |
Phaneuf, Dion |
Ceci, Cody |
Giordano, Mark |
Hamilton, Dougie |
Ekholm, Mattias |
Tkachuk ,Matthew |
Couturier ,Sean |
Panarin ,Artemi |
Toews ,Jonathan |
Backlund ,Mikael |
Giroux ,Claude |
Slavin, Jaccob |
Desharnais ,David |
Barrie, Tyson |
Pyatt ,Tom |
Braun, Justin |
Beagle ,Jay |
Orpik, Brooks |
Filppula ,Valtteri |
Cullen ,Matt |
Phaneuf, Dion |
Ceci, Cody |
Quick notes at a scan...
First category (best):
As I suspected, all wingers (except converted winger Burns, former winger MacKinnon).
Next category (worst):
Defensive minded centers: Tierney, Larsson, Stephenson, Filppula...Schmaltz and Wennberg young centers that had to serve as defensive conscience to some degree because of wing deployment...no wingers on the list at all, except young Kerfoot gets used at LW some/most times.
Defense (best):
Hamilton, Letang, Tkachuk, Miller all questionable defensive players. Letang was horrific last season, the worst of his pro career.
Giordano, Slavin, Backlund all very good defensively. Giroux had to the biggest reduction in his defensive responsibility in his career...moved to LW, Couturier covered for him. Skating limitations allowed him to thrive at wing offensively.
Defense (worst):
Cullen and Orpik ought not to belong. Orpik was much improved from the previous year. The rest of the list isn't bad. Skjei, Barrie, Phaneuf and, surprisingly, Ceci had been poor defensively.
Team tactics matter, so do player styles.
Instances of wingers taking F1 defensive responsibilities (typically center responsibilities) are not terribly uncommon: Jari Kurri taking F1 responsibilities for Gretzky to allow Gretzky to man the pointmen and better facilitate transition chances...sometimes Pascal Dupuis would do the same for Sidney Crosby...now Crosby plays with two young'ins in Conor Sheary (since departed) and Jake Guentzel who are disreputable defensive players. This year expected to see time with rookie Daniel Sprong, known for his lack of defensive conscience. As a coach, certain players can be trusted bolster and shelter young players (Crosby) and some players can't (Malkin almost never gets young players...he gets Kunitz, Kessel, Neal, etc.; Ovechkin in Washington is another example of this, always someone to support him, not the other way around). Then defensive deployment applies as well...
Naturally, you're not going to come up with every variation that will ever happen. That's why the eye test is the gold standard. But there's a lot of stats that have tried to be a one-stop-shop that fall way short because there's only a loose connection to the game itself. Target audience shouldn't be fan polls, it should be coaches/scouts. Come from a place of authority with good input, don't try to placate mass appeal - which seems to be what a lot of these types of catch-all stats attempt to do...
Center/winger issue.
Compare Claude Giroux, Corsi numbers at each position. Perhaps Jonathan Drouin.