Wins Above Replacement

Discussion in 'By The Numbers' started by NHL WAR, Sep 29, 2018.

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  1. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    I have created a Wins Above Replacement stat for the NHL. Here is a link to a video I made going over the basics. Further results of the stat will be uploaded in the days and weeks to come.

     
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  2. Doctor No

    Doctor No Registered User

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    I'd prefer to not watch a video. What makes this more useful than the other WAR calculations out there?
     
  3. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    A) There was a R2 value of 0.703 between team WAR and team wins last season, showing the components of W.A.R do translate to wins
    B) It incorporates a players even strength, power play and penalty kill contributions; nothing is left out
    C) It credits players for what they have done while also accounting for the role of luck ( ex: William Karlsson did not get the same Shooting Goals AA value as a 43 goal scorer with a shooting % of 12 would have.)
    D) It is still W.A.R 1.0. I am very much open to constructive criticism for potential adjustments to make this stat as good as it can be.
     
  4. Doctor No

    Doctor No Registered User

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    I'm familiar with WAR. What makes your WAR estimate better than the others?
     
  5. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    What others are you referring to? I am aware of the GAR model and know that corsica hockey has tinkered with WAR before and of the previous existence of the website war on ice. Do you mean one of these? I have not seen any other public WAR models and even those I mentioned before don't seem to have leaderboards or anything of that sort.
     
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  6. Doctor No

    Doctor No Registered User

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    Corsica has a model published, yes, as does Dawson Springs (DTM About Heart). Andrew Thomas and Sam Ventura developed a model a few years back.

    Those are the ones I'm aware of, and I'd consider GAR models to be essentially WAR models (since one can convert goals to wins in a straightforward fashion for a given season).

    Anyhow, looking forward to seeing some results so that people can see how they smell. Thanks for posting.
     
  7. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    I would agree with you that GAR and WAR are interchangeable. In the video I showed the 2017-18 leaders in each component of W.A.R: Ovi for shooting, Barzal for passing, Bozak for shootouts, O'Reilly for faceoffs, Gaudreau for penalty differential, Giordano for defensive goals saved and Kopitar for replacement goals.

    Further results will be posted in a couple days, here and on YouTube.

    Cheers to the start of a new season and good luck to your favourite team (unless it is the Bruins.)
     
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  8. Doctor No

    Doctor No Registered User

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    It's the Avalanche, unfortunately. Good luck to you and yours as well!
     
  9. Trilliann

    Trilliann Tier 2 fan

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    Corsica | WAR

    Evolving-Hockey

    And yes you can look at the leaders of each component if you want.
    DTM About Heart's model is no longer public.
     
  10. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Nice, I'll check those out sometime, see how they compare.
     
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  11. Hivemind

    Hivemind We're Touched

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    What makes this more accurate that GVT ?
     
  12. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    The advantages of this stat to GVT is that it gives more credit for primary assists than secondary and adds in faceoffs and penalty differential. It also incorporates Corsi numbers rather than plus/minus. As well, if I understand it correctly, the threshold used in GVT is often a specific team, which doesn't make as neutral a baseline as league average or replacement.
     
  13. Mike Farkas

    Mike Farkas Grace Personified

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    From a coaching perspective, I disagree with secondary assists not being viewed as valuable...and contrary to popular belief, roughly one-third of faceoffs don't matter. In-zone draws are important - a lost defensive zone draw is a big no-no. A NZ draw is not nearly as important...

    Corsi is, to put it lightly, not en vogue...
     
  14. Canadiens1958

    Canadiens1958 Registered User

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    Secondary assists probably more important as the importance of "first pass" defencemen increases.

    NZ draws, ES true, PP/PK disagree.

    In-zone. Should distinguish between change and no-change(post icing defensive team)
     
  15. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Assists value is calculated by the percentage of goals that include that type of assists ( there are more goals that require A1 than require A1 and A2.) Good point on NZ faceoffs.
    Corsi is by no means perfect, but it has been heavily adjusted for WAR and is without a doubt better than plus minus.
     
  16. Mike Farkas

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    Secondary assists need work. Ideally, adjusted for style of both team and player. Center-carry vs. defense-carry teams, etc.

    Good point re: special teams faceoffs and no-change situations. Become more important if future rule change comes about where power play team can pick which side the faceoff is on. I see that being toyed with at lower levels already.

    Corsi is biased towards shoot-from-anywhere wingers and defensemen. Biased against strong defensive centers.

    Plus/minus has warts as well, but just because you have more data points with corsi doesn't make it more reliable. Again, ought to be adjusted for style of play and team tactics if at all possible. Otherwise, depending on its weight, I'd scrap all together...you don't want heroes like Tyler Kennedy and Cody Franson getting to the top of the heap because they have tunnel vision.

    I doubt there's enough public data to make a terribly reliable stat. Then again, I didn't view the formula because it's in video form and I can't process that...
     
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  17. Canadiens1958

    Canadiens1958 Registered User

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    True if game film analysis is not part of the process. Otherwise you slide down the slope of rewarding failure. A1 being a rebound assist after a transition pass A2 gives more value to failure - not scoring initially than to the important transition pass.

    Plus/minus has withstood the test of time. Corsi is your basic flavour of the era stat like SV%.
     
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  18. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    I will post best and worst players in all Corsi based components. That way everyone can draw their own conclusions on whether it is the right man for the job.
     
  19. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Here are the best and worst players by each Corsi based component. This is not raw corsi, it is based off how much they outperformed the Corsi totals that would be expected based off of quality of teammates, competition and zone starts.

    Shooting:
    Top 10 in iCF above expected “goals”:
    Ovechkin ,Alex
    Tarasenko ,Vladimir
    Gallagher ,Brendan
    Skinner ,Jeff
    MacKinnon ,Nathan
    Burns, Brent
    Toffoli ,Tyler
    Arvidsson ,Viktor
    Kane ,Evander
    Kane ,Patrick

    Bottom 10:

    Schmaltz ,Nick
    Tierney ,Chris
    Kerfoot ,Alexander
    Larsson ,Johan
    Johansen ,Ryan
    Desharnais ,David
    Stephenson ,Chandler
    Wennberg ,Alexander
    Filppula ,Valtteri
    Sedin ,Henrik

    Passing:
    Top 10 in CF-iCF above expected “goals”:

    Stastny ,Paul
    Ekholm, Mattias
    Johansen ,Ryan
    Toews ,Jonathan
    Wennberg ,Alexander
    Couturier ,Sean
    Barzal ,Mathew
    Giroux ,Claude
    Doughty, Drew
    Giordano, Mark

    Bottom 10:

    Kane ,Patrick
    Laine ,Patrik
    Cullen ,Matt
    Boychuk, Johnny
    Burns, Brent
    Braun, Justin
    Tarasenko ,Vladimir
    Barrie, Tyson
    Ceci, Cody
    Ovechkin ,Alex

    Defense:
    Top 10 in CA below expected “goals”:

    Hamilton, Dougie
    Giordano, Mark
    Couturier ,Sean
    Ekholm, Mattias
    Slavin, Jaccob
    Letang, Kris
    Backlund ,Mikael
    Tkachuk ,Matthew
    Miller, Colin
    Giroux ,Claude

    Bottom 10:

    Skjei, Brady
    Barrie, Tyson
    Martinez, Alec
    Kempe ,Adrian
    Filppula ,Valtteri
    Pyatt ,Tom
    Cullen ,Matt
    Orpik, Brooks
    Phaneuf, Dion
    Ceci, Cody

    Top 10 in shooting,passing,defense combined:

    Giordano, Mark
    Hamilton, Dougie
    Ekholm, Mattias
    Tkachuk ,Matthew
    Couturier ,Sean
    Panarin ,Artemi
    Toews ,Jonathan
    Backlund ,Mikael
    Giroux ,Claude
    Slavin, Jaccob

    Bottom 10:

    Desharnais ,David
    Barrie, Tyson
    Pyatt ,Tom
    Braun, Justin
    Beagle ,Jay
    Orpik, Brooks
    Filppula ,Valtteri
    Cullen ,Matt
    Phaneuf, Dion
    Ceci, Cody

    Discuss
     
  20. Mike Farkas

    Mike Farkas Grace Personified

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    Quick notes at a scan...

    First category (best):
    As I suspected, all wingers (except converted winger Burns, former winger MacKinnon).

    Next category (worst):
    Defensive minded centers: Tierney, Larsson, Stephenson, Filppula...Schmaltz and Wennberg young centers that had to serve as defensive conscience to some degree because of wing deployment...no wingers on the list at all, except young Kerfoot gets used at LW some/most times.

    Defense (best):
    Hamilton, Letang, Tkachuk, Miller all questionable defensive players. Letang was horrific last season, the worst of his pro career.
    Giordano, Slavin, Backlund all very good defensively. Giroux had to the biggest reduction in his defensive responsibility in his career...moved to LW, Couturier covered for him. Skating limitations allowed him to thrive at wing offensively.

    Defense (worst):
    Cullen and Orpik ought not to belong. Orpik was much improved from the previous year. The rest of the list isn't bad. Skjei, Barrie, Phaneuf and, surprisingly, Ceci had been poor defensively.
     
  21. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    U have a point with the center/ winger responsibility difference. On the one hand, those centers who are punished in shooting grade far better than the wingers in the passing category, which balances it out. On the other, anyone will tell you a center has more responsibility than a winger and all else being equal they would take a center. I have wondered whether a positional adjustment would fix this...either via comparing centers to centers and wingers to wingers or by adding positional "goals" to the WAR formula ( adding a couple "goals" for centers, taking away a couple from wingers.)
     
  22. Mike Farkas

    Mike Farkas Grace Personified

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    Team tactics matter, so do player styles.

    Instances of wingers taking F1 defensive responsibilities (typically center responsibilities) are not terribly uncommon: Jari Kurri taking F1 responsibilities for Gretzky to allow Gretzky to man the pointmen and better facilitate transition chances...sometimes Pascal Dupuis would do the same for Sidney Crosby...now Crosby plays with two young'ins in Conor Sheary (since departed) and Jake Guentzel who are disreputable defensive players. This year expected to see time with rookie Daniel Sprong, known for his lack of defensive conscience. As a coach, certain players can be trusted bolster and shelter young players (Crosby) and some players can't (Malkin almost never gets young players...he gets Kunitz, Kessel, Neal, etc.; Ovechkin in Washington is another example of this, always someone to support him, not the other way around). Then defensive deployment applies as well...

    Naturally, you're not going to come up with every variation that will ever happen. That's why the eye test is the gold standard. But there's a lot of stats that have tried to be a one-stop-shop that fall way short because there's only a loose connection to the game itself. Target audience shouldn't be fan polls, it should be coaches/scouts. Come from a place of authority with good input, don't try to placate mass appeal - which seems to be what a lot of these types of catch-all stats attempt to do...
     
  23. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    I agree. The defensive aspect is so much harder to capture than the offensive. While the current formula for defense doesnt capture everything ( every coach having different roles and strategies for their players makes this impossible) I think it serves it's purpose. Good points and advice.
     
  24. Canadiens1958

    Canadiens1958 Registered User

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    Center/winger issue.

    Compare Claude Giroux, Corsi numbers at each position. Perhaps Jonathan Drouin.
     
  25. NHL WAR

    NHL WAR Registered User

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    Claude Giroux's Corsi For % each season since 2010-11 (excluding lockout shortened season) has ranged from 53.2% to 54.4%. Jonathan Drouin experienced a slight drop going from winger to center, but one that can be explained easily when you factor him leaving Tampa for Montreal. These examples agree with my thinking that position doesn't tilt Corsi ratings one way or the other. On the plus side, wingers aren't getting extra credit...the question remains should centers?
     

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