Prospect Info: Winnipeg Jets Prospects 2017-18

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Whileee

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The Sask analytics guy said he had their best Corsi on the team in his draft year.
They were arguably the worst team in the league though, so it'd be like being the best player in Arizona haha.
We also don't know how much of that translates... or do we. *looks suspiciously around*
Thanks.

I've always been impressed with Nogier's skating, but worried about his puck skills and decision making. I've actually been somewhat encouraged by his development prior to his injury. He started to look like a player that might improve enough to make the NHL. I'm interested in how he progresses next season, which should be a good indicator of his potential.
 

Daximus

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Thanks.

I've always been impressed with Nogier's skating, but worried about his puck skills and decision making. I've actually been somewhat encouraged by his development prior to his injury. He started to look like a player that might improve enough to make the NHL. I'm interested in how he progresses next season, which should be a good indicator of his potential.

Never been impressed with him. He's an alright skater and plays physical but I saw him lots in Junior and he struggled to score there. At least Chiarot had a slap shot that can get him a couple of points. Nogier is terrible under pressure and doesn't have a clue what to do with or without the puck. I think he'll be a better skating Mark Stuart at best. It's rare for a kid who struggles to score as a 20 year old in Junior to ever make it in the NHL as anything more than a depth option.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Never been impressed with him. He's an alright skater and plays physical but I saw him lots in Junior and he struggled to score there. At least Chiarot had a slap shot that can get him a couple of points. Nogier is terrible under pressure and doesn't have a clue what to do with or without the puck. I think he'll be a better skating Mark Stuart at best. It's rare for a kid who struggles to score as a 20 year old in Junior to ever make it in the NHL as anything more than a depth option.

I think the thing is that him making it as a depth option would be a good thing.

I always thought some people were overly impressed during his emergency time with the Jets. But I saw him as better better than Mark Stuart even then.
 

Daximus

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I think the thing is that him making it as a depth option would be a good thing.

I always thought some people were overly impressed during his emergency time with the Jets. But I saw him as better better than Mark Stuart even then.

I wasn't impressed in the least in those 10 games. Kid looked completely lost. He was giving the puck up left and right, pinching at bad times. Over skating the puck, panicking at even the slightest bit of pressure. Basically all the same things he was doing in Junior, just against even better players. I'd bet on Green passing him on the RD depth chart in short order.
 

Whileee

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I wasn't impressed in the least in those 10 games. Kid looked completely lost. He was giving the puck up left and right, pinching at bad times. Over skating the puck, panicking at even the slightest bit of pressure. Basically all the same things he was doing in Junior, just against even better players. I'd bet on Green passing him on the RD depth chart in short order.
He wasn't very good, but I think your assessment is a bit harsh.

He had a very strong xGF% in that small sample, and I recall that he played well positionally and started to gain some confidence. He is a long shot, but I don't think he's a lost cause yet.
 

Daximus

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He wasn't very good, but I think your assessment is a bit harsh.

He had a very strong xGF% in that small sample, and I recall that he played well positionally and started to gain some confidence. He is a long shot, but I don't think he's a lost cause yet.

His actual goals for was a big fat zero. He has 2 goals in 73 AHL games. He has 8 goals in a whopping 235 WHL games. This kid is just not a scorer. He's not a passer. He's not really much of anything. If he has a chance of making it then everyone does and I think that is sugar coating things quite a bit. Sometimes we have to see things for what they are and just come to terms with some kids just not being good enough to make the NHL.
 

truck

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His actual goals for was a big fat zero. He has 2 goals in 73 AHL games. He has 8 goals in a whopping 235 WHL games. This kid is just not a scorer. He's not a passer. He's not really much of anything. If he has a chance of making it then everyone does and I think that is sugar coating things quite a bit. Sometimes we have to see things for what they are and just come to terms with some kids just not being good enough to make the NHL.
Aye. I don't see much here, but I'd be happy with a #9 or 10 D man. Teams need those too.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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I wasn't impressed in the least in those 10 games. Kid looked completely lost. He was giving the puck up left and right, pinching at bad times. Over skating the puck, panicking at even the slightest bit of pressure. Basically all the same things he was doing in Junior, just against even better players. I'd bet on Green passing him on the RD depth chart in short order.

I didn't see him as that bad, but not suddenly the great prospect some others saw either. He did fairly well compared to my low expectations.

Agree that Green probably passes him by pretty quickly but I don't expect too much from Green right away either. He'll need some time.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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True but I doubt he'll be with the Jets for much longer. I'd bet after this contract the Jets let him walk.

Missing last year really hurt whatever chance he had. I expect him to be dropped after next year - unless he has a very strong showing. I don't expect any scoring so he will have to be a rock defensively. Not likely but not impossible.
 

Joe Hallenback

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I like Nogier, he is going to have to fight an uphill battle this year to get back into the picture. He will be a solid depth guy for sure.
 

DeepFrickinValue

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Never been impressed with him. He's an alright skater and plays physical but I saw him lots in Junior and he struggled to score there. At least Chiarot had a slap shot that can get him a couple of points. Nogier is terrible under pressure and doesn't have a clue what to do with or without the puck. I think he'll be a better skating Mark Stuart at best. It's rare for a kid who struggles to score as a 20 year old in Junior to ever make it in the NHL as anything more than a depth option.


I think scoring is over rated for prospect defensemen. With Niku and Green there will be lots of offensive so we will need at least one pure defensive dman like Nogier. There is room for one defensive specialist on each team. Just as long as he can make the breakout pass.
 

CorgisPer60

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I think scoring is over rated for prospect defensemen. With Niku and Green there will be lots of offensive so we will need at least one pure defensive dman like Nogier. There is room for one defensive specialist on each team. Just as long as he can make the breakout pass.

He needs to be able to skate well, too. They're putting lots of emphasis on that with their prospects. He doesn't need to be Morrissey, but he can't be a fridge, either.
 

Daximus

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I think scoring is over rated for prospect defensemen. With Niku and Green there will be lots of offensive so we will need at least one pure defensive dman like Nogier. There is room for one defensive specialist on each team. Just as long as he can make the breakout pass.

I like defensive d that can at least chip in on the front end in some way. Morrissey, Kuli and even Chiarot and Poolman can do this. I think pure shut down D are being phased out for better skaters that can shut you down but also make offensive plays when needed.
 

Atoyot

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I think scoring is over rated for prospect defensemen. With Niku and Green there will be lots of offensive so we will need at least one pure defensive dman like Nogier. There is room for one defensive specialist on each team. Just as long as he can make the breakout pass.

Thing is, as has been pointed out in the past by Garret, most of the defensive defensemen in the league still put up numbers in juniors. Vlasic was over a PPG. Even Willie Mitchell put up points in the NCAA.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Thing is, as has been pointed out in the past by Garret, most of the defensive defensemen in the league still put up numbers in juniors. Vlasic was over a PPG. Even Willie Mitchell put up points in the NCAA.

That isn't a requirement though. It is an indicator of the overall skill level the player has and therefore points to future success. But there is nothing prohibiting future success for players who didn't score at some earlier point.

If Nogier can prevent goals against, get the puck, and move it out of the d zone without turning it over, it doesn't matter if he never scores. However, lacking the skill to score at lower levels suggests he won't be able to do those things well enough. But he still might, even without scoring.
 

garret9

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That isn't a requirement though. It is an indicator of the overall skill level the player has and therefore points to future success. But there is nothing prohibiting future success for players who didn't score at some earlier point.

If Nogier can prevent goals against, get the puck, and move it out of the d zone without turning it over, it doesn't matter if he never scores. However, lacking the skill to score at lower levels suggests he won't be able to do those things well enough. But he still might, even without scoring.

It isn't a requirement, in that exceptions always exist... exceptions exist even for rules... that doesn't make it less of a rule.

If you are actually skilled enough to prevent goals, you need things like skating to get to pucks and get it out, puck skills to handle the puck, etc. If you have those things at sufficient level to handle the NHL in an effective manner, than almost always you have enough skills that in junior you will dominate nobodies who will not even play in the ECHL that are 2 years+ younger than you in your later junior years.
 

ps241

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It isn't a requirement, in that exceptions always exist... exceptions exist even for rules... that doesn't make it less of a rule.

If you are actually skilled enough to prevent goals, you need things like skating to get to pucks and get it out, puck skills to handle the puck, etc. If you have those things at sufficient level to handle the NHL in an effective manner, than almost always you have enough skills that in junior you will dominate nobodies who will not even play in the ECHL that are 2 years+ younger than you in your later junior years.

Logan Stanley comes to mind, I am not sure he reached the minimum threshold in this category in his draft year? On a positive note he got to a level in his D+2 season where he was able to gather points against “nobodies who will not even play in the ECHL that are 2+ years younger”. I actually liked how he looked with the puck offensively this season but his foot speed and footwork defensively were horrific to watch at times. Hopefully it’s something that can improve allot in the AHL because the NHL is relentlessly fast now and it is getting faster.

Another example is Josh Morrissey who was a high end point generator in Juniors and known as an offensive defenseman. Josh was able to utilize his skill, amazing skating, and IQ to learn how to become a tremendous defender in the NHL. Watching that transformation drove home the point to me at least about why you draft D men who can generate points in the lower leagues.
 

Mortimer Snerd

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It isn't a requirement, in that exceptions always exist... exceptions exist even for rules... that doesn't make it less of a rule.

If you are actually skilled enough to prevent goals, you need things like skating to get to pucks and get it out, puck skills to handle the puck, etc. If you have those things at sufficient level to handle the NHL in an effective manner, than almost always you have enough skills that in junior you will dominate nobodies who will not even play in the ECHL that are 2 years+ younger than you in your later junior years.

I think that is what I said. It is an indicator. The scoring itself is not what is needed, but players who have the skill can be expected to score at a lower level - and usually will.
 

Whileee

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Agree with Garret above. Nogier would need to defy the odds.

But there are some notable examples where very mobile defensemen had low production, but made a nice transition to the NHL at a later stage. Josh Manson and Orpik come to mind.

Nogier is a long shot, but not a lost cause.
 

Joe Hallenback

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Its the same reason that every player you draft isn't going to be 5'7. The chances they make it to the NHL as an effective player are slim to none
 

Mortimer Snerd

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Agree with Garret above. Nogier would need to defy the odds.

But there are some notable examples where very mobile defensemen had low production, but made a nice transition to the NHL at a later stage. Josh Manson and Orpik come to mind.

Nogier is a long shot, but not a lost cause.

Tanev (the other Tanev) is the poster boy for the defensive Dman. Even he scored a little at lower levels.
 

DJBiffWPG

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I think scoring is over rated for prospect defensemen. With Niku and Green there will be lots of offensive so we will need at least one pure defensive dman like Nogier. There is room for one defensive specialist on each team. Just as long as he can make the breakout pass.

Skilled players play defense better than plugs who can’t do anything but throw hits and block shots.
 
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KingBogo

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Hi guys, what are your practical expectations for petan moving forward?
Not sure you can pick a guy with a wider range of views on his value. I think now that his ELC has expired the Jets give him a qualifying offer and keep him around on the big club. He will get a few opportunities, but to date has only shown well when he has been given optimal usage which won't be often given the amount of young talented wingers ahead of him on the depth chart. If I had to guess I think he spends about 1/2 his time as an injury replacement and the other 1/2 in the PB. If you want to make a trade offer for him feel free.
 
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