Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Whileee]

I've heard Brian Burke talk about +/- on Sportsnet, Paul Maurice talk about it. It's not the primary stat to measure a player, but this shot based statistical approach hasn't been proven in any way. In fact a team like the Islanders destroyed that model in the playins. So there's something more to analyze. I'd like to see real analysis beyond shots, shots, shots. One on one battles, defensive stops, passing efficiency, which was something that the Liiga tracked, zone possession. Because inevitably with any team sport, you are never getting the whole picture, in a team full of variables, and opposing variables, identifying a player by a single stat. And analytics are still raw data, like Covid statistics, for instance. Which is not to slight G-man in any way because he provides a lot of useful information.

I agree that there are limitations to shot-based metrics, and I endorse the idea of using other ways of assessing performance, including additional parameters to improve estimation of expected goals. But the raw plus minus is highly flawed for a number of statistical and logical reasons. I doubt that Maurice puts too much value in it, and his remark was related to an extreme value. But I usually ignore it, and I think there are good reasons to ignore it. There are also readily available goal-based metrics that are superior and readily available, making the traditional plus minus metric irrelevant.

 

[JetsFan815]

I just think of it this way, Jets waiving Beaulieu or putting him in the pressbox and never letting him on the ice helps their on ice product by similar amount.

Keeping him on the roster though does help:
* expansion draft
* guy that some teammates like
* veteran presence bs

Beaulieu isn't even a guy who has had a long term reputation of being a "good locker room" presence. When he was on the Habs there was off-ice stuff about him. He might have changed since then as it was a few years ago but one probably can't defend his role solely on the "good in the room psychological impact" as one could with a guy like Hendricks.

 

[JetsUK]

Jets and other NHL teams would be smart to connect with universities / colleges to plug into analytic talent there ( could probably get it cheap). Problem might be nondisclosure expectations, since academics tend to want open sharing of methods and peer review. At the very least, NHL teams would probably benefit from having neutral external reviews of their data / analytic operations to assess methods and processes. Otherwise, you can have wacky charlatans take over and steer a franchise into bad proprietary methods.

Without giving anything away, I have direct experience with a Uni-affiliated data lab that made such an approach a while back -- they build integrated systems for big data modelling, management and output and are class-leading, not just locally but internationally.

There are a few problems with PPPs in this sphere. First is the labyrinthine nature of IP licensing at a uni, which involves a seemingly endless queue of lawyers, documentation and back-and-forth which can take years and seem longer. Then there are the expectations that come with the external grants which make much of this research possible but add complications when it comes to IP and especially the sharing of realized tech. Then there are the interpersonal minefields to manage. It can be done, and there are easily the horses here to do it, but I can't see many corporate interests wanting to submit any of it willingly, especially something like a peer review (that's a lot of hours and egos) and you'v always got a uni admin banging on the windows and screwing stuff up.

It's a great idea, and this is as good a place as any given the growing talent pool here. Maybe it happens on a smaller scale with local stats or data startups, but I think it's likely a hard sell, despite the possible payoffs and kudos. IMO.

 

[garret9]

Without giving anything away, I have direct experience with a Uni-affiliated data lab that made such an approach a while back -- they build integrated systems for big data modelling, management and output and are class-leading, not just locally but internationally.

There are a few problems with PPPs in this sphere. First is the labyrinthine nature of IP licensing at a uni, which involves a seemingly endless queue of lawyers, documentation and back-and-forth which can take years and seem longer. Then there are the expectations that come with the external grants which make much of this research possible but add complications when it comes to IP and especially the sharing of realized tech. Then there are the interpersonal minefields to manage. It can be done, and there are easily the horses here to do it, but I can't see many corporate interests wanting to submit any of it willingly, especially something like a peer review (that's a lot of hours and egos) and you'v always got a uni admin banging on the windows and screwing stuff up.

It's a great idea, and this is as good a place as any given the growing talent pool here. Maybe it happens on a smaller scale with local stats or data startups, but I think it's likely a hard sell, despite the possible payoffs and kudos. IMO.

Generally how it's worked for us is we've given old data to universities to do a project on, and there's some stipulations on what is and isn't gone public and what is our IP vs the universities.

It's very complex.

 

[garret9]

I'm going to suggest something that is a bit of a hot take...

Samberg-Pionk
Heinola-DeMelo
Stanley-Poolman

 

[DRW204]

I'm going to suggest something that is a bit of a hot take...

Samberg-Pionk
Heinola-DeMelo
Stanley-Poolman

3 rookie dmen? maurice would never.

 

[Whileee]

Generally how it's worked for us is we've given old data to universities to do a project on, and there's some stipulations on what is and isn't gone public and what is our IP vs the universities.

It's very complex.

It can be complex, but it doesn't need to be complex. I think the partnership model between a university and a local NHL team could be configured differently than one between a private data / analytics firm and a university.

 

[Whileee]

I'm going to suggest something that is a bit of a hot take...

Samberg-Pionk
Heinola-DeMelo
Stanley-Poolman

Wicked.

Morrissey-Samberg
Heinola-Pionk
Stanley-DeMelo

 

[Hunter368]

I'm going to suggest something that is a bit of a hot take...

Samberg-Pionk
Heinola-DeMelo
Stanley-Poolman

Oh sure......stir the pot why don't you, thanks Garret. Haha

Where is Josh?

While I agree Samberg & Heinola are surely upgrades over multi guys were using now.......I absolutely have no issues with management wanting to over rippen prospects in the A with the intent or best interests of their long term development & career.

 

[razorsedge]

Defense needs a complete rebuild. Go heavy on pics for defenseman this draft. Doubt we'll obtain a number 1 D-man any time soon in a trade or FA.

 

[Huffer]

Wicked.

Morrissey-Samberg
Heinola-Pionk
Stanley-DeMelo

Would like to see this with Poolman rotating in as well.

 

[garret9]

Wicked.

Morrissey-Samberg
Heinola-Pionk
Stanley-DeMelo

Oh sure......stir the pot why don't you, thanks Garret. Haha

Where is Josh?

While I agree Samberg & Heinola are surely upgrades over multi guys were using now.......I absolutely have no issues with management wanting to over rippen prospects in the A with the intent or best interests of their long term development & career.

The hot take is the no Josh
If I was more realistic I'd put Josh in instead of Poolman or Stanley

 

[Hunter368]

The hot take is the no Josh
If I was more realistic I'd put Josh in instead of Poolman or Stanley

I like Whileee lines.......

Josh Samberg
Heinola Pionk
Stanley DeMelo

I think DeMelo & Samberg could switch depending how both were playing.

 

[voyageur]

I like Whileee lines.......

Josh Samberg
Heinola Pionk
Stanley DeMelo

I think DeMelo & Samberg could switch depending how both were playing.

For me not only would I have Forbort in the lineup, but I'd give him an extension. He's the reason Beaulieu is relegated to PK2 to start the year, and the results are pretty good. Makes it easier to integrate only one player into our PK. He's also pretty tight playing with Pionk and I think that's the only pair that Maurice won't mess with this year.

I'd like to get Stanley into that bottom pairing by the time Montreal comes to town. But somebody's going to have to get injured, or stay injured, because it's still another 2 weeks until we can waive Forsberg and free up a roster spot, while Comrie quarantines, unless the Jets want to call Berdin up.

 

[Jet]

No love for Derek Forbort

I just don't get it

 

[truck]

No love for Derek Forbort

I just don't get it

He's been better than most, but the unit has been terrible on the whole.

He shouldn't be untouchable.

This is all pie in the sky anyways. Mo isn't moving any of the kids into the line-up without an injury.

 

[snowkiddin]

Can anyone provide some insights into our D prospects past our two studs Samberg and Ville? Samberg and Ville I see as top 4 defenders (Samberg in the Pesce mould and Ville as a Heiskanen-lite). Also, I see Stanley as a full time NHLer soon. But what do the others project as?

Here’s my take:

Declan Chisholm: I’ve been very impressed with him so far and it looks like his success is translating to pro. He’ll probably need at least two full seasons in the AHL past this season, but I see the NHL in his future. Verdict: Potential 5-6, NHL by 2023-24.

Leon Gawanke: His offense has impressed me no doubt, but his defence still sketches me out. Probably nothing more than a PP specialist, similar to say Paul Postma. Needs more seasoning in the A. Verdict: 7-8 guy, PP specialist. NHL by 2022-23.

Johnathan Kovacevic: Honestly I think he’s near NHL-ready. He’s a bit older too, so he should be further in his development. Looking really steady, expect him to get in to some games next season. I think the idea is he’ll ideally be a Poolman replacement. Verdict: 7-8, NHL by 2021-22.

Luke Green: I don’t think he’ll make it past the AHL. He just can’t stay healthy. Verdict: Europe when his contract ends.

Simon Lundmark: I don’t know much about him. I heard he’s doing well in Europe this year. Hopefully we can get him on to the Moose next year. Verdict: Not sure of his potential, can’t see him making his NHL debut until 2023-24 at the earliest.

Jacob Cederholm: I heard somewhere that we still have his rights. That might not even be true. He won’t make it past the ECHL here. Verdict: He’ll be lucky if he can play pro in Sweden again.

Anton Johannesson: Too early to tell. Seems to be a Hail Mary type pick. Potentially another Enstrom-type guy (in a perfect world), but it’s looking like he’ll have durability issues. Verdict: Too early to tell, he’s at least four-to-five years away.

Tyrel Bauer: Who knows. People were grilling this kid on draft day, but I like his mean streak and he’s worth a flyer late in the draft. The rest of his junior career will determine whether he makes the AHL or not, and then we’ll go from there. Verdict: Project.

Croix Evingson: Believe he’s in his senior year of college hockey. Hope the degree he’s studying is good because he has no future in hockey other than the beer leagues past this season. Cool name, though. Verdict: He’ll be able to tell his grandkids he was taken in the same draft as Cale Makar and Miro Heiskanen.

How off-base am I?

 

[mazmin]

I'm going to suggest something that is a bit of a hot take...

Samberg-Pionk
Heinola-DeMelo
Stanley-Poolman

It starts looking like something reasonable once Morrissey is flipped (with an add on) for a top #1 RD. But alas only on HFBoards are the right players available in trade...

 

[Teemusalami204]

No love for Derek Forbort

I just don't get it

Has it not occurred to anyone that he helped doughty play amazing and now he is helping pionk elevate his game. Forbort is the type of player that makes his partner better. You don’t have to be a superstar to be this way.

 

[Romang67]

Has it not occurred to anyone that he helped doughty play amazing and now he is helping pionk elevate his game. Forbort is the type of player that makes his partner better. You don’t have to be a superstar to be this way.

I mean, Doughty won the Norris trophy the year before Forbort became a full time NHL D-man, and had that point been one of the best D-men in the NHL for some 6-7 years. And Pionk was really good last year too, partnered with Sbisa who is spending this season in the press box because he hasn't been able to wrestle a spot from such talent as Matt Benning and Mark Borowiecki. Pionk and Forbort is a better pairing that Pionk and Sbisa. Whether that is because Pionk has improved, Forbort is better than Sbisa, or a mix is up in the air. I lean toward a mix personally.

Forbort is fine. He's a perfectly acceptable bottom pairing D-man, who apparently can play pretty well when partnered with one of the best players in the league. Partnered with Pionk, they're a decent 2nd pairing. If we had a first pairing that could shoulder the load, I'd rather like a second pairing of Pionk and Forbort, though I'm unsure whether it's necessarily better than a pairing of Pionk and Samberg would be. Either way, we don't have a first pairing, so IMO that isn't good enough.

 

[voyageur]

Can anyone provide some insights into our D prospects past our two studs Samberg and Ville? Samberg and Ville I see as top 4 defenders (Samberg in the Pesce mould and Ville as a Heiskanen-lite). Also, I see Stanley as a full time NHLer soon. But what do the others project as?

Here’s my take:

Declan Chisholm: I’ve been very impressed with him so far and it looks like his success is translating to pro. He’ll probably need at least two full seasons in the AHL past this season, but I see the NHL in his future. Verdict: Potential 5-6, NHL by 2023-24.

Leon Gawanke: His offense has impressed me no doubt, but his defence still sketches me out. Probably nothing more than a PP specialist, similar to say Paul Postma. Needs more seasoning in the A. Verdict: 7-8 guy, PP specialist. NHL by 2022-23.

Johnathan Kovacevic: Honestly I think he’s near NHL-ready. He’s a bit older too, so he should be further in his development. Looking really steady, expect him to get in to some games next season. I think the idea is he’ll ideally be a Poolman replacement. Verdict: 7-8, NHL by 2021-22.

Luke Green: I don’t think he’ll make it past the AHL. He just can’t stay healthy. Verdict: Europe when his contract ends.

Simon Lundmark: I don’t know much about him. I heard he’s doing well in Europe this year. Hopefully we can get him on to the Moose next year. Verdict: Not sure of his potential, can’t see him making his NHL debut until 2023-24 at the earliest.

Jacob Cederholm: I heard somewhere that we still have his rights. That might not even be true. He won’t make it past the ECHL here. Verdict: He’ll be lucky if he can play pro in Sweden again.

Anton Johannesson: Too early to tell. Seems to be a Hail Mary type pick. Potentially another Enstrom-type guy (in a perfect world), but it’s looking like he’ll have durability issues. Verdict: Too early to tell, he’s at least four-to-five years away.

Tyrel Bauer: Who knows. People were grilling this kid on draft day, but I like his mean streak and he’s worth a flyer late in the draft. The rest of his junior career will determine whether he makes the AHL or not, and then we’ll go from there. Verdict: Project.

Croix Evingson: Believe he’s in his senior year of college hockey. Hope the degree he’s studying is good because he has no future in hockey other than the beer leagues past this season. Cool name, though. Verdict: He’ll be able to tell his grandkids he was taken in the same draft as Cale Makar and Miro Heiskanen.

How off-base am I?

I like the assessment. As a rule most picks aren't mature enough until 22/23 to be in consideration for the NHL. Heinola is the exception. I think Kovacevic is in that mold. And a big enough guy to offset that smaller guys like Morrissey and Pionk are our two stars on the backend, so someone ideal for the bottom of the lineup.

I'm not sure Gawanke will make the NHL with the Jets. Much like Niku had a strong rookie season, that was bolstered by being a QB on the PP. It's the defensive side, like Niku, where he'll have to progress. Has many of the tools so next year will be a crucial year for him. As the defensive caroussel goes, Johannesson should be ready to join the Moose when Gawanke's ELC is up. And take over a points producing role at the AHL level. You don't expect every 5th round pick to be an NHLer, but the Jets have done pretty well at assessing talent in this round. Development is very much up to the player, and what they can improve on to become pros.

Lundmark is one that is quietly sneaking up. I am hoping he and Arvid Holm make the jump to the AHL next year. After his first year in North America will be easier to assess. I think the Jets might have earmarked him as an internal De Melo replacement. He also might mature faster given his experience playing in a pro league for awhile.

I haven't seen Chisholm play other than preseason, but around that 22 year old age is when I expect we'll see Chisholm progress to the next level. Important for him to get the reps he'll need to be a contributing factor, which are probably more on the defensive side than the game he played in junior.

I like the Bauer pick too. We're going to need some toughness and PKers down the road. Work hard enough and maybe the opportunity will come.

 

[PaulPooley]

I'm going to suggest something that is a bit of a hot take...

Samberg-Pionk
Heinola-DeMelo
Stanley-Poolman

Ballsy to bench JoMo...

 

[garret9]

Ballsy to bench JoMo...

I know. That's the hot take.
Honestly I think there's a realistic chance that Morrissey isn't in the top 4* by next year for those 7 defenders, but not likely outside of the top 6 haha.
In actual impact, not usage, because we all know he's going to be played, a lot.

 

[Teemusalami204]

I know. That's the hot take.
Honestly I think there's a realistic chance that Morrissey isn't in the top 4* by next year for those 7 defenders, but not likely outside of the top 6 haha.
In actual impact, not usage, because we all know he's going to be played, a lot.

I agree 100 percent.

 

[Bob E]

Any word on Poolman’s injury?