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Wings Select Lucas Raymond 4th Overall

nbwingsfan

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Dec 13, 2009
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Ezekial said:
82 games his rookie year
62 games his sophomore year
68 games his 3rd year
80 points in 70 games (90+ point pace over 70 games) his 4th year

Technically you're right.
Technically Anthony Mantha isn't a 50 point scorer.
But Henkka would be the first one to make an argument that Mantha is better than that in a giant post with tons of different stats and rates to make his argument (as usual)

I agree you shouldn't set wild expectations for him, but to say expectations are 65+ point prime player are pretty low for our best prospect in decades.
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Just because hes our beat prospect doesn't mean he should be a PPG+ player.

Look at players picked 4th-6th overall (forwards) since 2016:
Puljujarvi/Tkachuk
Marner/Zacha
Bennett/Dal Colle/ Virtanen
Lindholm/Monahan
2012 had no one really good in the top 10
Strome/ Zibanejad
Johansen/Neiderreiter/Connolly
Schenn/Kadri

So going all the way back to 2009 the other "consistent" 90pt player is Marner. The most likely outcome is somewhere around 70pts, which was my original projection

90+ is highly unlikely once youre out of the top 3.
 

nbwingsfan

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Dec 13, 2009
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OgeeOgelthorpe said:
Because how they play hockey is very similar. Raymond is projected more as a playmaking winger than a goalscorer. Alfredsson was more of a playmaking winger than a goalscorer. How they skate the puck up ice, how they carry it in the offensive zone, how they drop when they shoot, and how they both play a 200 foot game. They are very similar in these regards.

I can't think of comparing Raymond to a similar winger from another country because when I think of 2-way right-shoooting playmaking wingers with gamebreaking ability the very first thought I have is Alfredsson.
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Ive seen a lot of Panarin comparisons and in my limited viewings of Raymond that seems pretty good for playing style. Strongly doubt he gets that good overall
 

Hen Kolland

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Feb 22, 2018
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nbwingsfan said:
Just because hes our beat prospect doesn't mean he should be a PPG+ player.

Look at players picked 4th-6th overall (forwards) since 2016:
Puljujarvi/Tkachuk
Marner/Zacha
Bennett/Dal Colle/ Virtanen
Lindholm/Monahan
2012 had no one really good in the top 10
Strome/ Zibanejad
Johansen/Neiderreiter/Connolly
Schenn/Kadri

So going all the way back to 2009 the other "consistent" 90pt player is Marner. The most likely outcome is somewhere around 70pts, which was my original projection

90+ is highly unlikely once youre out of the top 3.
Click to expand...

But there are a ton of players who also don’t share a lick in common in terms of types of skill sets as Raymond. The one he closely resembles to my eye is Marner.

You are drafting Raymond for home run potential. Should you expect 90? No. Can you hope for 90? Sure. It comes down to projection, I don’t think 90 is impossible for Raymond IF he hits the high end of his development arc. But until something changes, he’s a 0 point NHL forward.

Time to kick our feet up and over react to every glimmer of success he gives us in Sweden, but also prepare for the inevitable crash of the love affair the fan base has when he’s not an all star by the end of 2021-22.
 
Ezekial

Ezekial

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nbwingsfan said:
Just because hes our beat prospect doesn't mean he should be a PPG+ player.

Look at players picked 4th-6th overall (forwards) since 2016:
Puljujarvi/Tkachuk
Marner/Zacha
Bennett/Dal Colle/ Virtanen
Lindholm/Monahan
2012 had no one really good in the top 10
Strome/ Zibanejad
Johansen/Neiderreiter/Connolly
Schenn/Kadri

So going all the way back to 2009 the other "consistent" 90pt player is Marner. The most likely outcome is somewhere around 70pts, which was my original projection

90+ is highly unlikely once youre out of the top 3.
Click to expand...
90 is as lofty as 65 would be disappointing. Both aren't numbers I put out.
 

nbwingsfan

Registered User
Dec 13, 2009
21,243
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Hen Kolland said:
But there are a ton of players who also don’t share a lick in common in terms of types of skill sets as Raymond. The one he closely resembles to my eye is Marner.

You are drafting Raymond for home run potential. Should you expect 90? No. Can you hope for 90? Sure. It comes down to projection, I don’t think 90 is impossible for Raymond IF he hits the high end of his development arc. But until something changes, he’s a 0 point NHL forward.

Time to kick our feet up and over react to every glimmer of success he gives us in Sweden, but also prepare for the inevitable crash of the love affair the fan base has when he’s not an all star by the end of 2021-22.
Click to expand...
Once again, ive never once said he won't hit 90. He has the potential to do so.

I was responding to the poster saying he expects 90+ and anything less is a disappointment. Expecting a 4th overall pick to be a top 10 offensive player is setting him up for failure because according to history that is VERY unlikely.
 
Henkka

Henkka

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nbwingsfan said:
65+ is actually right on line with the expected output of someone drafted around his position
Click to expand...

2020 drafted players should have higher bar, because this was a strong offensive draft.

Every draft year is not equal. We have a right to expect more from this class.

Think next year's best forward can't beat any of this 2020 Top5.

And those 2022 guys could be stronger than ever.
 

nbwingsfan

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Dec 13, 2009
21,243
15,036
Henkka said:
2020 drafted players should have higher bar, because this was a strong offensive draft.

Every draft year is not equal. We have a right to expect more from this class.

Think next year's best forward can't beat any of this 2020 Top5.

And those 2022 guys could be stronger than ever.
Click to expand...
This gets said almost every year and never turns out this way. We have 3 players who were unanimously viewed as having a higher offensive ceiling than Raymond in this draft, so youre saying you expect 4 of the top 10 scorers to all come from the 2020 draft? Not happening
 
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Henkka

Henkka

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nbwingsfan said:
This gets said almost every year and never turns out this way. We have 3 players who were unanimously viewed as having a higher offensive ceiling than Raymond in this draft, so youre saying you expect 4 of the top 10 scorers to all come from the 2020 draft? Not happening
Click to expand...

I don't say the same every year. Other can say. Not me.

I say that next year is weak in top forwards. And this 2020 is strong. 2022 is strong again on top forwards.

I've done relative calculations year-by-year from DY-1 + DY-2 data to compare classes, including WHL, OHL, QMJHL, USHL and some European Leagues. And done this comparison since the McDavid draft. 2013 data as earliest.

Have you done the same and have got different results?
 

nbwingsfan

Registered User
Dec 13, 2009
21,243
15,036
Henkka said:
I don't say the same every year. Other can say. Not me.

I say that next year is weak in top forwards. And this 2020 is strong. 2022 is strong again on top forwards.

I've done relative calculations year-by-year from DY-1 + DY-2 data to compare classes, including WHL, OHL, QMJHL, USHL and some European Leagues.

Have you done the same and have got different results?
Click to expand...
Trying to judge this year on their scoring totals is purely wrong because scoring, especially in the OHL was WAYYY up from usual.
 
izlez

izlez

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While expecting 90 points is unrealistic... points across the league are trending way up the last 2-3 years. Looking at historical numbers of amount of guys that hit 90 points is a bit misleading

...Bryan Rust had >PPG last year
 
TheOtherOne

TheOtherOne

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Jan 2, 2010
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OgeeOgelthorpe said:
Because how they play hockey is very similar. Raymond is projected more as a playmaking winger than a goalscorer. Alfredsson was more of a playmaking winger than a goalscorer. How they skate the puck up ice, how they carry it in the offensive zone, how they drop when they shoot, and how they both play a 200 foot game. They are very similar in these regards.

I can't think of comparing Raymond to a similar winger from another country because when I think of 2-way right-shoooting playmaking wingers with gamebreaking ability the very first thought I have is Alfredsson.
Click to expand...
That may be true in this specific instance and if so I may have used a bad example. But what I'm getting that is this is overwhelmingly often the case. Prospect X's "comparable" is some obscure player Y who just happens to be from the same country.

It's mildly irritating.

(very mildly)
 
OgeeOgelthorpe

OgeeOgelthorpe

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Feb 29, 2020
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TheOtherOne said:
That may be true in this specific instance and if so I may have used a bad example. But what I'm getting that is this is overwhelmingly often the case. Prospect X's "comparable" is some obscure player Y who just happens to be from the same country.

It's mildly irritating.

(very mildly)
Click to expand...

I get you, fam. This isn't a problem specific to HFBoards, though. A lot of it starts with lazy writing from people who haven't really watched the players. The Zadina = Hossa label made me cringe since day one. (I know one is Czech and one is Slovak, but the comparison being made on regional closeness is what bothers me)
 
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