Wings off to a good start

[TheOtherOne]

Question: if the Wings are bad enough to luck into the #1 pick, would anyone be willing to trade it for an established first-pair defenseman? Essentially trading LaFreniere for a top-pair D?

What if Veleno/Rasmussen/Zadina/Svechnikov all take the right steps and it looks like we are decently set at F?

Yea I do that deal.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

In another thread I said they may finish ~20th overall. Best case scenario (all the stars in the universe align) they're a bubble team either just in or out of a WC spot. Most likely they finish ~23rd-25th overall (injuries, cold streaks, lack of depth etc.) Mantha's unsustainable SH% & only 4 scoring F's + mediocre at best Dcore + the aforementioned reasons are why this will happen. Some of our possession metrics/advanced stats are awful. Look at 2019-20 Detroit Red Wings Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

This is why I feel Veleno is our most important prospect, a solid 2-way 2C & all of a sudden we have 2 legit scoring lines (not perfect & not elite, but good/very good). We have a surplus of decent 3rd & 4th liners so the roster will have balance. Seider is probably just as important, but our D seems to be getting the job done for now.

 

[ShelbyZ]

The team looks better than last season. And when mostly healthy, (IIRC) last seasons team crept into a wild card spot for a hot second in early December despite starting the season 1-7-2. Then injuries on D piled up again through December and January and they were basically done.

I think this team could surprise, but probably ends up somewhere between the bottom 5 and right outside the WC race.

I think some factors are likely to catch up with them:

-Health, especially at C or D. They're basically doomed if Larkin misses any significant time obviously. Losing Mantha or Bertuzzi might hurt too, but not as much. As for D, when both DeKeyser and Green weren't in the line-up last season, the team went 3-11-3, with only 1 of those wins being in regulation. I don't Hronek played in any of those games (if any), so adding him to the mix certainly helps, but if they lose more than one top 4 D at the same time, they likely have similar results.

-The "middle six" at forward. For now the Wings seem set at 1st and 4th line, while they have a ton of question marks in between. In comparison to last season, this is where not having or effectively "replacing" Nyquist will probably hurt. Teams are eventually going to figure out or neutralize the top line, so the Wings are going to need some secondary scoring. I doubt Filppula or Nielsen are going to find a fountain of youth to become legitimate or highly productive #2/3C's, so it'll need to come from the wing. I'm not worried about AA, but whether it's Hirose or another guy, someone's going to need to find chemistry with him. They also need someone to step up and produce from the 3rd line. Basically somebody like Erne, Ehn or a call up that sticks is going to need to take a huge step. I have doubts that's going to happen though.

-How teams eventually neutralize the BLM line. Eventually teams are going to start lining up their best players against them, or sending out their more physical/agitating guys to wear them down or get under their skin. We've already seen Bertuzzi get suspended twice for retaliatory stuff and Mantha has no problem risking his hands to stick up for his teammates. I'm not advocating the Red Wings bring in another Witkowsk or call up someone like McIlrath to play 5 minutes a night, but they really don't have anyone to really help deter some of that stuff.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

#1 pick would not be a shut down goalie anyhow. So what difference does it make what pick we have?

LMGTFY

 

[raymond23]

We are picking 6 or later and some team like the Pens will jump into the top three because... well because the lottery is a load of bullshit.

 

[ThankGord]

I can see teams begin to play their 1st line against out 2nd-4th lines to get a matchup advantage. Our team hasn't had to really fight from behind this year (besides Dallas), so we will have to monitor and see how they do in that situation.

I think We will look solid for the rest of October, but then begin to fizzle downward from there. Howard has been playing solid for us, but I doubt his play will be sustainable. I'm curious to see what the coaching staff does when vets become healthy again. I am hoping they just become healthy scratches, but we will see.

Yeah I agree, teams will start to figure us out soon or later.

 

[lilidk]

Team is getting better , but .........

 

[FMichael]

The team is definitely trying to win and make the playoffs out there. I think Howard gets hurt or the first line cools off (it will at some point, question is how much). The defense will ensure we're not a great team. Also, playing Bernier every other game helps the tank as well.

Agreed.

I believe the team ‘wants’ to do well - however we simply don’t have the talent at this time to guarantee a spot for the playoffs.

The notion of tanking just for the sake of trying to acquire a better spot for the draft can be counterproductive, and sending a bad message.

For now we’ll have to sit back, and see what unfolds...It’s been interesting thus far.

 

[Retire91]

We are picking 6 or later and some team like the Pens will jump into the top three because... well because the lottery is a load of bull****.

I agree I like anti-tank rules but its overboard. Philly shouldn't have had that 2nd overall pick that is ridiculous. I just hope the BS comes around to benefit us and we get a top 5 pick when we don't deserve it.

 

[ShelbyZ]

lol - that would be fitting.

And yeah - I recall Quebec was in need for a Francophone star, and wanted Daigle so badly...Wonder how things would've ended up had they, or Montreal gone thru with the trade, and handing over all those assets?

IIRC, the potential trade package was steep, but nowhere near as huge as what Lindros went for. It would've been something like Hextall, a bunch of picks, (still an unsigned draft pick but rising in stock) 19YO Forsberg along with an established top forward like Sakic or Nolan.

Quebec is probably OK, although they still end up in Denver, maybe even sooner lol. They probably still have enough assets left over to be able to recover and still eventually become a contender. IIRC, for Quebec the Francophone thing was just kind of a bonus. They were also after a top pick because the draft was in their building and they had the assets to throw around. They tried to get #2OA from the Sharks too, but that pick ended up going to the Whalers, who used it on Pronger...

Given that they could spend their way out of the mistake, Montreal probably would've been fine. Although slightly dismantling a Cup winning team to bring in a notable bust would've been just as infamous as Daigle's flop in Ottawa, maybe even more so...

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Wel finish low enough to have a bad season while also screwing ourselves on the draft lotto although the last few years have showed it’s a crapshoot anyways

 

[Hugh Mongusbig]

This team is one Larkin or Mantha injury away from going on a 10 game losing streak, and it will be all season.

 

[FMichael]

Wel finish low enough to have a bad season while also screwing ourselves on the draft lotto although the last few years have showed it’s a crapshoot anyways

Indeed - there’s no ‘reward’ for finishing last, and as we already know - we’re likely to drop back a few spots no matter where we end up.

I just assume the boys play hard competitive hockey on a nightly basis, and go from there.

 

[Flowah]

Am I surprised the top line picked up where they left off and we are winning games just like the end of last season?
No.

This isn't sustainable, though, at best fringe playoff team.

Even if the top line was sustainable, you can't go far with just 1 line. It *might* take you into the playoffs but you won't win a round.

This team is one Larkin or Mantha injury away from going on a 10 game losing streak, and it will be all season.

If, (when) Howard goes down we're going to feel some pain too. Bernier cannot be our starter for any significant length of time if we expect wins.

 

[Ezekial]

Even if the top line was sustainable, you can't go far with just 1 line. It *might* take you into the playoffs but you won't win a round.

By fringe I meant just on the outside. I don't expect this team to finish out of the bottom 10 at best still a like 2% chance lottery team.