Windsor Spitfires 2019 Offseason Thread (Part 3)

[member 71782]

I'd rather have another 30 points than not, though. If you add a guy who should score 20 goals, and it's a vast improvement over what we had, you're bettering the club. Are there other factors? Sure. Would I still take the increased offensive production? Certainly.



No disagreements. Campbell's biggest strength was his PK and, hopefully, Boka is put into that role instead of being a top six guy. But, now you're adding more offence with the players coming in so we still remain better on paper than we were in April.



...and Johnston/Zito? They're both likely to be better than Garagan and Campbell and both should be bottom six for the time being. Even if you say Afanasyev is replacing someone on the top line, that shifts everyone down a line, and whoever fills that empty hole is still better than said hole. No matter how it slices out, we're better off now than we were in April, which is a good thing.



I really like Flint; they're going to be much better than last season. If they can build on their confidence, I see them making noise. How does the rest of the division shape up? It's too early but, like you said, I see Saginaw falling a bit.

As for Piiroinen - he's young and in a new culture. When you take that, plus thrown to the wolves, it's not easy. This season is his big one; make or break, if you will. Medina's going to push him hard, which is what both need.

Windsor 2018/19 GF - 216 GA - 257

If Zito and Johnston replace Garagan/Campbell points wise that's a wash. Does not improve or regress the roster.

If Afanasyev adds 20 goals and he doesn't have a major impact anywhere else the team is still short 18 goals using last years GF/GA.

Has it improved their totals? Yes, no question.

Has it improved the team? No. They are still running a negative in GF/GA which is why I say it's not just about getting a few more points into the line up and assuming everyone is going to improve or other variables won't come into play. The projected impact beyond the added goals/points is what will improve the team.

Yes, you're right, 100% they will be a better offensive team f they add 20 more goals or 1 more goal but if they continue to play the same way and don't impact other areas of their game in a positive way with an increase in offensive production they won't be a better team.

Garagan/Campbell played limited roles, they had very little impact on the game regardless of points they added to the team's totals.

Most goals in a game wins the game. Most wins in a season wins the season. Most goals in a year wins nothing if it doesn't translate into wins so regardless of how much their offensive production "increases" if there is no change in the rest of their game to support that offensive production then they still won't win more then they lose.

If your only concern or point is they will be a team that has improved offensive numbers then great, you are 100% right.

If you're trying to show that improved offensive numbers automatically translates to more wins the n you're not even close.

Their offensive numbers can drop and they can increase their wins if they can impact the game in other ways. Individual points/increased team point totals doesn't mean more wins. They can be a worse overall team with higher point totals then last year.

You seem to be assuming more offense from individuals will automatically equate to more wins and you're doing this by comparing players in different roles that have a completely different impact on the overall game. If Afanasyev putting up points doesn't affect the goals given up we still have a team that loses more then it wins, unless he is setting records all year long.

 

[OHLTG]

There are no questions that other factors are involved, but I'd still take the increased production anytime we can. Will it translate to more wins? When you add in everything, it should. Is it a guarantee? Of course not. We can always revisit this next Spring.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Agreed Faub. I saw a team last year that was never really comfortable with any type of style. With DiPietro they played timid overall, pack it in defensively and have DiPietro try and steal them a game. With Piroinen the team seemed to vacate a lot of defensive responsibilities and in the process giving up top tier chances. Likely there is a middle ground where they become more responsible defensively but become better on counter opportunities. Of course that means the D has to make better decisions, forwards need to make better passes as well. Last year was probably one of the poorest passing teams I have ever seen. Sometimes the opposition wouldn't even provide resistance and Spitfire players couldn't complete 15 foot passes. Often passes would be behind the player, between the skates of the player. Also if the PP is poor again they will be hard pressed to contend.

 

[ohloutsider]

I'm curious as to how you see the division shaking out. I expect the Spits and Firebirds to make some pretty substantial improvements while Sarnia should see some more modest gains. The Soo looks very likely to be the same or a touch better and Saginaw might take a small step back.

It's definitely shaping up to be the most competitive division of the four. From an outsiders perspective I think the Spits look like a good bet for second in the division and probably a home playoff spot.

I'm not seeing it quite like you do but it is far too early to tell who returns for each team to have a clear picture.
I see the Soo taking a step back this year - your assuming that all of your younger players will leap forward and replace the talent that has left, I'm not seeing the talent for that leap.
Early prediction from me would be Saginaw winning the division but it will be close - same as last year Saginaw will buy at the deadline and move into first. The rest of the division will be close Soo, Flint and Windsor are similar squads in talent level so it really comes down to who puts it together. Flint being a bit older might have the edge here. Sarnia is a wild card but I see them selling for the future at the deadline and will likely fall back. And as usual we all know what predictions are worth so we will see and looking forward to a fun year.

 

[ohloutsider]

There are no questions that other factors are involved, but I'd still take the increased production anytime we can. Will it translate to more wins? When you add in everything, it should. Is it a guarantee? Of course not. We can always revisit this next Spring.

Production does not tell much to weigh team success. It is goals against that are the real tell tale sign of a good team and usually leads to improvement in the win column. You can lose a game 8-2 and then improve your goal production but still losing 8-6 - 4 goals better but still nothing in the win column. Team defense is the key to any win. That falls to all 6 players on the ice.

Having said this I see the Spits improving at this from last year. Goalies will be fine, D will be a little older and wiser and the younger group last year will be ready to play more D in their own end - the coaches have to focus on this and I'm sure they know that. The talent is there it just needs to work as a unit at both ends of the ice.

 

[Fischhaber]

I'm not seeing it quite like you do but it is far too early to tell who returns for each team to have a clear picture.
I see the Soo taking a step back this year - your assuming that all of your younger players will leap forward and replace the talent that has left, I'm not seeing the talent for that leap.
Early prediction from me would be Saginaw winning the division but it will be close - same as last year Saginaw will buy at the deadline and move into first. The rest of the division will be close Soo, Flint and Windsor are similar squads in talent level so it really comes down to who puts it together. Flint being a bit older might have the edge here. Sarnia is a wild card but I see them selling for the future at the deadline and will likely fall back. And as usual we all know what predictions are worth so we will see and looking forward to a fun year.

Believe it or not, the Greyhounds lost far more talent before the 2018/19 season and a similar amount before the 2017/18 season.

This happens every year and they just keep rolling along. I think I justifiably put a lot of faith in their ability to develop players. I don't quite have that faith in Flint and Windsor at this point in time but things can change quickly in the OHL.

Saginaw's defense gives me a lot of pause, especially if Wilde doesn't come back. They'll be looking at a couple of solid second pairing guys in Webb and Millman to go with basically 4 rookies. Prosvetov will certainly be leaned on if he returns.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Believe it or not, the Greyhounds lost far more talent before the 2018/19 season and a similar amount before the 2017/18 season.

This happens every year and they just keep rolling along. I think I justifiably put a lot of faith in their ability to develop players. I don't quite have that faith in Flint and Windsor at this point in time but things can change quickly in the OHL.

Saginaw's defense gives me a lot of pause, especially if Wilde doesn't come back. They'll be looking at a couple of solid second pairing guys in Webb and Millman to go with basically 4 rookies. Prosvetov will certainly be leaned on if he returns.

I think the Soo will be ok not at a level of 90-100 points but I can see them settling between 75-80 which is a solid year considering what they're losing. A lot of people fail to account for the experience younger players can get in the playoffs. A 68 game season is nice but schedules aren't always balanced, road trips, 3 in 3 etc... In the playoffs that's big boy hockey. I think this is where Windsor falls short in that department. This group really hasn't learned what it means to play meaningful games with the stakes are very high or how to elevate their play when the opposition pushes back. Probably the biggest reason why I can't see them making any type of run.