Windsor Spitfires 2019 Offseason Thread (Part 3)

[OHLTG]

That's kind of my point, though. We should be better than last season. The kinds of streaks we saw, such as D'Amico's odd up-and-down ones, are rare. On paper, this is a pretty solid team that should win a round. Is hockey easy to predict? No. Can anything happen? Of course. But, right now, there's room for optimism (along with some questions).

 

[RayzorIsDull]

But you don’t know if others will match last years point totals. This past year we had guys who did better then year before and we weren’t better then year before. You have no clue if the team will be better or not. Should they be? Yes. But this is hockey and anything can happen.

Agreed and for better or worse there's a lot of skepticism about this group. Some of it being the roster, some of it being ownership, and much more to do with the coaching. At this point if there's confidence it could be called blind faith at this point.

 

[Oldbarn Newhay]

Agreed with everything here. Obviously if the team starts out well that would be great for everyone involved. What happens if the team struggles out of the gate? Bowler brings up the St Louis Blues. He failed to mention them firing their coach and Binnington coming in to help save the season. Saginaw last season was turned around after they fired Smith. If the team struggles what's Bowler going to do? Shake up the group he said so many good things about a few months ago? Go to Cypher and ask if he can fire Letowski?? Nobody knows the type of GM Bowler will be. Looking at all the statements though I think we can guess Bowler will be dealing with some constraints that might inhibit his ability to follow through on his plan.

While Bowler may not have said the Blues resurgence was in large part due to the coaching change, everyone is aware that it was. I believe Bowler's quote is subtly directed at Letowski.

 

[aresknights]

I liked the Campbell move; he was what we needed at the time. Garagan I'm neutral on; he was a body.

You have liked every move Windsor has ever made for a player (at the time it was made) And posted as much, unless I missed one over the 3/4 years you weren't "excited about" or claimed any said player was needed, good move ect........

Its ok to not pump tires on every addition made.

 

[OHLTG]

Is it cool if I like some aspects of a deal, but not all? Or is this an "either you like the trade or you hate it" situation? I ask because the Maggio deal was one where I like his potential and youth, but I wasn't a fan of giving up two 2nds.

I know I didn't like giving up Sirman; thought he was valuable in some capacity. Same with Cole Carter, was a big fan of his.

Robertson didn't do much for me, esp. for a 3rd.

 

[windsor7]

You have liked every move Windsor has ever made for a player (at the time it was made) And posted as much, unless I missed one over the 3/4 years you weren't "excited about" or claimed any said player was needed, good move ect........

Its ok to not pump tires on every addition made.

Agreed

 

[OHL4Life]

Is it cool if I like some aspects of a deal, but not all? Or is this an "either you like the trade or you hate it" situation? I ask because the Maggio deal was one where I like his potential and youth, but I wasn't a fan of giving up two 2nds.

I know I didn't like giving up Sirman; thought he was valuable in some capacity. Same with Cole Carter, was a big fan of his.

Robertson didn't do much for me, esp. for a 3rd.

i think the issue becomes when you like every move they make, defend it and suggest they are better for it, but the team doesnt improve, then there's a diconnect somewhere.

either the trades are not as good as you promote, the team didnt develop them or you have a history of blind faith with the spits.

i mean no disrespect but you've done this 'they improved this offseason, look' dance for 8/9 years now and for 8/9 years they dont win in the playoffs and outside of one year, dont finish top 4 in the conference, then perhaps the 'the improved this offseason, look' posts dont have a ton of merrit?

i get that you like to look at the positive and thats fine, but like when you kept pushing rychel was staying for some reason, i think your need to look at the positive clouds things.

i do agree with you that they will improve this year, but i also get why some may not think your the most unbiased eye based on past posts. it becoems a 'boy who cried wolf' situation after the 4/5th 'everything is great' post.

 

[member 71782]

Even you can't deny that if you take away Garagan, Campbell, and an empty hole in the lineup, and insert Johnston, Afanasyev, and Zito... you're automatically better. I realize the approach has always been "they're good on paper, but.....", however those three moves alone make this club better and there's no reason that won't translate onto the ice. Heck, Afanasyev alone will dominate more than Garagan/Campbell/empty hole did.

Campbell and Garagan were warm bodies and nothing more. Comparing the effects of inserting a couple of 16 year olds will have on a team may be fair.

Afanasyev has to be compared to who he replaces, even at a different position. DiPietro gave the team a chance to win more often then not, can Afanasyev provide the same effect up front? He's not a goaltender but he's not just a warm body so comparing him to Campbell/Garagan and the expectations placed on them really isn't a good comparison. He has to be evaluated based on the difference he is expected to make not on how many points he gets compared to the other two. He can put up 100 points and carry the team or he could put up 30 and be better than Campbell/Garagan but does 30 points make the team much better because he's here and they're not?

If Afanasyev lives up to his potential, McDonald is healthy, used better and gets back on track and Zito and Johnston can show solid development then yes, they help the team towards being better and an improvement over Campbell, Garagan, empty hole and the loss of DiPietro who should be part of the argument if you are including Afanasyev in it. Maggio becomes part of the equation if he can push Purboo and Boka down the roster as well.

 

[Teflon]

The ifs are great and that’s what fans do, speculate to the positive. I do agree most of the new assets and frankly most of the returnees should be better. BUT, there’s is the chance their not better, or some aren’t better, or this staff continues to be horrible. Hell maybe this team doesn’t jell. Lots of unknowns. I see Bowlers comments as a dis to WR. To me he’s saying the things he wants to focus on weren’t being taken care of by WR. I’m still disgusted the coaches have jobs!! That today is the teams biggest issue. We’re not dummies Savage! Spend the money and fix it!! Will be a very defining year, there is significant talent here now, a step forward is a must!!

 

[member 71782]

The ifs are great and that’s what fans do, speculate to the positive. I do agree most of the new assets and frankly most of the returnees should be better. BUT, there’s is the chance their not better, or some aren’t better, or this staff continues to be horrible. Hell maybe this team doesn’t jell. Lots of unknowns. I see Bowlers comments as a dis to WR. To me he’s saying the things he wants to focus on weren’t being taken care of by WR. I’m still disgusted the coaches have jobs!! That today is the teams biggest issue. We’re not dummies Savage! Spend the money and fix it!! Will be a very defining year, there is significant talent here now, a step forward is a must!!

I agree with so much of this.

The talent is here and while there will always be a lot of variables that can affect things the biggest issues at this point in time is the coaching. If they have not been willing to do anything about this then Letowski and company have to believe they have a free ride for the moment. That's what scares me, a coaching staff that isn't likely to be held accountable, at least up to this point isn't likely to change what they're doing.

As has been said, it's all platitudes at the moment, trying to entice the fans without substance but it's time to put up.

 

[windsor7]

The ifs are great and that’s what fans do, speculate to the positive. I do agree most of the new assets and frankly most of the returnees should be better. BUT, there’s is the chance their not better, or some aren’t better, or this staff continues to be horrible. Hell maybe this team doesn’t jell. Lots of unknowns. I see Bowlers comments as a dis to WR. To me he’s saying the things he wants to focus on weren’t being taken care of by WR. I’m still disgusted the coaches have jobs!! That today is the teams biggest issue. We’re not dummies Savage! Spend the money and fix it!! Will be a very defining year, there is significant talent here now, a step forward is a must!!

A must.
Coaching sux

 

[OHL4Life]

I agree with so much of this.

The talent is here and while there will always be a lot of variables that can affect things the biggest issues at this point in time is the coaching. If they have not been willing to do anything about this then Letowski and company have to believe they have a free ride for the moment. That's what scares me, a coaching staff that isn't likely to be held accountable, at least up to this point isn't likely to change what they're doing.

As has been said, it's all platitudes at the moment, trying to entice the fans without substance but it's time to put up.

this is the first time since they traded for logan brown that i actually believed they had the start of the core of a team that could do damage. id like to see the goalie again and start from scratch (less hype this year from rychel, plus most teams have questions in net), youth drives this team, we just need a coach to not care about birth years and focus on abilities.

i do wish we had a more seasoned manager who could make the smart moves to improve the organization. not much faith in bowler but maybe hell surprise me, i just wish he earned his promotion, not handed it.

 

[tomschman]

I do believe that the team will be better offensively. I like the additions of Afanasyev, Johnston and Zito. I look for Foudy, Cuylle and McDonald to improve since they now have a full saeson (half for McDonald) under their belt. I expect (hope) D'Amico returns to what he did in the first half and have a complete season.

I also expect the D to mature and improve.

My concern is in goal. We have and 18 import that played far below expectations, especially considering that he is one of the top 2 goalies in Finland for his age. I say that because he was on both their U18 and U17 teams over the past 2 years. We also have a 17 year old that does not have any OHL experience. The third goaltender is an overager that has been a career backup. I don'y believe that he has the talent to be an overage starter.

If the goal situation works it self out, i.e. one or more of the goaltenders stepping up, the Spits should be 4 or 5 in the Conference. If the goaltending is like last year, after DiPierto's departure, thay will be battling for the final playoff spots again.

 

[OHL4Life]

I do believe that the team will be better offensively. I like the additions of Afanasyev, Johnston and Zito. I look for Foudy, Cuylle and McDonald to improve since they now have a full saeson (half for McDonald) under their belt. I expect (hope) D'Amico returns to what he did in the first half and have a complete season.

I also expect the D to mature and improve.

My concern is in goal. We have and 18 import that played far below expectations, especially considering that he is one of the top 2 goalies in Finland for his age. I say that because he was on both their U18 and U17 teams over the past 2 years. We also have a 17 year old that does not have any OHL experience. The third goaltender is an overager that has been a career backup. I don'y believe that he has the talent to be an overage starter.

If the goal situation works it self out, i.e. one or more of the goaltenders stepping up, the Spits should be 4 or 5 in the Conference. If the goaltending is like last year, after DiPierto's departure, thay will be battling for the final playoff spots again.

the fall from dipietro to piiroinen is significant and needs to be considered when projecting this year vs last year.

a bit of a silver lining is outside of a handful of teams, there are goalie questions throughout the ohl. they could get a richardson in a pinch if they need, this isnt a 'go for it' year so if the import struggles you an carry an oa as a goalie and its no big deal. if piiroinen steps up then problem solved. ill give him the benefit of the doubt but first blush wasnt great.

 

[OHLTG]

Afanasyev has to be compared to who he replaces, even at a different position. DiPietro gave the team a chance to win more often then not, can Afanasyev provide the same effect up front? He's not a goaltender but he's not just a warm body so comparing him to Campbell/Garagan and the expectations placed on them really isn't a good comparison. He has to be evaluated based on the difference he is expected to make not on how many points he gets compared to the other two. He can put up 100 points and carry the team or he could put up 30 and be better than Campbell/Garagan but does 30 points make the team much better because he's here and they're not?

If you take Campbell/Garagan out of the lineup and put Johnston/Afanasyev in, you're automatically better on paper. That's the point. Right now, 30 points does make this club a whole lot better; that's a whole lot more offence than they had last season.

That said, I agree that coaching is still a huge question mark. The team needs to figure it out. While I know Bowler et al. want TL to be the man, that doesn't mean he should be.

 

[TheGremlin]

If you take Campbell/Garagan out of the lineup and put Johnston/Afanasyev in, you're automatically better on paper. That's the point. Right now, 30 points does make this club a whole lot better; that's a whole lot more offence than they had last season.

That said, I agree that coaching is still a huge question mark. The team needs to figure it out. While I know Bowler et al. want TL to be the man, that doesn't mean he should be.

Just curious but are you going to keep posting the comparison of out going players to incoming players once a page? Just curious cause its kinda getting to be a little old and very repetitive

 

[OHLTG]

Just curious but are you going to keep posting the comparison of out going players to incoming players once a page? Just curious cause its kinda getting to be a little old and very repetitive

The irony of that last sentence makes me laugh. You think I WANT to debate stupid stuff? Nope.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Just curious but are you going to keep posting the comparison of out going players to incoming players once a page? Just curious cause its kinda getting to be a little old and very repetitive

Exactly we heard it the first 7-8 times. In general that's flawed thinking because you can say in generalities that Egor is replacing Campbell or Garagan. If Egor is that good he's not replacing one of them he's replacing one of the top 6 forwards that will be demoted either from top line to 2nd line or 2nd line to 3rd line. If that player demoted doesn't adjust well to say the 3rd line then it's quite possible that player will take a step back.

 

[OHL4Life]

The irony of that last sentence makes me laugh. You think I WANT to debate stupid stuff? Nope.

so don’t

if you dont like what posters have to say, you’re free to ignore

cfaub made the point about dipietro/Egor, that’s what he was posting about. you ignored it and went back to your original post

the roster is without a doubt better this year with the exception of beteeen the pipes, where we go from having one of the best in recent ohl history for 2/3 of the year to nothing but a question. I believe that this year will be better, but that question is legit and has yet to be factored into any of your projections, which was cfaub’s main point

 

[OHLTG]

There's zero denial that Piiroinen isn't DiPietro, but I also think that's one of the issues with this team in terms of fan reaction. We were spoiled with DiPietro. Flat out. Going from a carousel of goaltenders to the best in team history... it was exceptionally tough for any young goaltender to follow that. Piiroinen is going to be fine, given the proper training/development. He's not going to be DiPietro, but nobody should expect that. Back-to-back "best in team history" is far from realistic. The team, as a whole, should be taking the next step, and I believe that Piiroinen will do the same.

 

[member 71782]

so don’t

if you dont like what posters have to say, you’re free to ignore

cfaub made the point about dipietro/Egor, that’s what he was posting about. you ignored it and went back to your original post

the roster is without a doubt better this year with the exception of beteeen the pipes, where we go from having one of the best in recent ohl history for 2/3 of the year to nothing but a question. I believe that this year will be better, but that question is legit and has yet to be factored into any of your projections, which was cfaub’s main point

That nails it.

If you take Campbell/Garagan out of the lineup and put Johnston/Afanasyev in, you're automatically better on paper. That's the point. Right now, 30 points does make this club a whole lot better; that's a whole lot more offence than they had last season.

That said, I agree that coaching is still a huge question mark. The team needs to figure it out. While I know Bowler et al. want TL to be the man, that doesn't mean he should be.

One player picking up 30 points does not make the club better, sure they increase the offensive production if everyone else remains static but increased offensive production, if that's all it is does not guarantee more wins. The impact needs to be a bigger threat in their overall game. Points are a part of it but also how they implement systems, maintain puck control, improve defensively both in their own zone and through increased offensive zone control. Getting 30 more points won't help if they give up 40 more against.

When you're comparing players you have to look beyond the obvious, number of points or whatever. You need to look at the projected impact players coming in are going to have compared to the players they are replacing or outgoing players.

Afanasyev isn't replacing Garagan/Campbell or an empty roster spot. A projected top six player is filling a top six role, not a fourth line role, there is no comparison there.

Jonston/Zito as first year players will be filling fourth line roles most likely, they will be expected to play similar minutes/roles to Campbell/Garagan. There is a comparison there.

McDonald is filling the empty roster spot he filled before he was injured. He's not replacing anyone because management never filled the spot. He's simply picking up where he left off. There is nothing to compare except McDonald's progression compared to what he did last year.

Trade player A for player B who both have similar expectations in the effect they will bring to the roster then you have something to compare but this is not the case here.

Afanasyev will be a big part of this team's season. If he can reach close to what's expected of him he will push a better player down a line and so on until you have a better player on the fourth line replacing Campbell/Garagan. Compare exp0ected roles and impact instead of simply points to see if they have really improved the roster.

 

[Fischhaber]

That's kind of my point, though. We should be better than last season. The kinds of streaks we saw, such as D'Amico's odd up-and-down ones, are rare. On paper, this is a pretty solid team that should win a round. Is hockey easy to predict? No. Can anything happen? Of course. But, right now, there's room for optimism (along with some questions).

I'm curious as to how you see the division shaking out. I expect the Spits and Firebirds to make some pretty substantial improvements while Sarnia should see some more modest gains. The Soo looks very likely to be the same or a touch better and Saginaw might take a small step back.

It's definitely shaping up to be the most competitive division of the four. From an outsiders perspective I think the Spits look like a good bet for second in the division and probably a home playoff spot.

 

[member 71782]

There's zero denial that Piiroinen isn't DiPietro, but I also think that's one of the issues with this team in terms of fan reaction. We were spoiled with DiPietro. Flat out. Going from a carousel of goaltenders to the best in team history... it was exceptionally tough for any young goaltender to follow that. Piiroinen is going to be fine, given the proper training/development. He's not going to be DiPietro, but nobody should expect that. Back-to-back "best in team history" is far from realistic. The team, as a whole, should be taking the next step, and I believe that Piiroinen will do the same.

I believe much, not all of Piiroinen's troubles were the way he was handled and the team in front of him.

I gave Letowski credit at the start of the year, he was getting one out of every 3 or 4 starts until he had a bad game. Letowski then went straight to relying on DiPietro while Piiroinen sat for a few weeks. When he did get the odd start the team on the ice in front of him gave him very little support and while he needed to be better they all needed to be better. After that it was all downhill from there. I am expecting a much better season from him since he will be back and I think him and Medina battling it out should be good for both of them. That being said I really was surprised they brought him back because again, while he had obvious confidence issues that grew as the season went on the lack of support from the team on the ice also showed they had confidence issues in him.

I liked what I saw from him to start the year but once again, after a decent start Letowski and company screwed up the handling of the goaltenders just like they did the year before.

DiPietro is no longer a factor for him or the team this year and instead of him having things thrust upon him in a less than ideal situation he has a fresh start with solid competition. It's all up to him to be the goaltender he initially looked like he could be.

As for fans thinking he has to be DiPietro? That's a lack of knowledge on their part. Fans expecting him to better? That should be expected by them and he has to be able to accept that kind of pressure otherwise it will be time to move on. It's up to him now but the coaching/management has to realize that who they are putting in front of him hasn't been the best situation for him or any other goaltender.

Until the team is better he can only do so much. Improve the team and he has no excuses. Then it's all on him.

 

[OHLTG]

One player picking up 30 points does not make the club better, sure they increase the offensive production if everyone else remains static but increased offensive production, if that's all it is does not guarantee more wins. The impact needs to be a bigger threat in their overall game. Points are a part of it but also how they implement systems, maintain puck control, improve defensively both in their own zone and through increased offensive zone control. Getting 30 more points won't help if they give up 40 more against.

I'd rather have another 30 points than not, though. If you add a guy who should score 20 goals, and it's a vast improvement over what we had, you're bettering the club. Are there other factors? Sure. Would I still take the increased offensive production? Certainly.

When you're comparing players you have to look beyond the obvious, number of points or whatever. You need to look at the projected impact players coming in are going to have compared to the players they are replacing or outgoing players.

No disagreements. Campbell's biggest strength was his PK and, hopefully, Boka is put into that role instead of being a top six guy. But, now you're adding more offence with the players coming in so we still remain better on paper than we were in April.

Afanasyev isn't replacing Garagan/Campbell or an empty roster spot. A projected top six player is filling a top six role, not a fourth line role, there is no comparison there.

...and Johnston/Zito? They're both likely to be better than Garagan and Campbell and both should be bottom six for the time being. Even if you say Afanasyev is replacing someone on the top line, that shifts everyone down a line, and whoever fills that empty hole is still better than said hole. No matter how it slices out, we're better off now than we were in April, which is a good thing.

I'm curious as to how you see the division shaking out. I expect the Spits and Firebirds to make some pretty substantial improvements while Sarnia should see some more modest gains. The Soo looks very likely to be the same or a touch better and Saginaw might take a small step back.

I really like Flint; they're going to be much better than last season. If they can build on their confidence, I see them making noise. How does the rest of the division shape up? It's too early but, like you said, I see Saginaw falling a bit.

As for Piiroinen - he's young and in a new culture. When you take that, plus thrown to the wolves, it's not easy. This season is his big one; make or break, if you will. Medina's going to push him hard, which is what both need.

 

[member 71782]

Huh?

From where I sit, Windsor is in the top 4 of the league for draft equity (London, Flint, Kitchener, Windsor). +4 2nds, +1 3rd, +1 4th. Granted some of those are conditionals, and I don't know what the conditions are, so that might be subject to change. But to say that Saginaw has more draft equity? They are +1 2nd, -3 3rds, -1 4th. That seems absurd to claim.

This is what I have for Windsor picks and conditions on them as best as I can find. There are some question marks surrounding some of them but this includes all trades up to the end of June. I can't say for sure if some of these conditions have been resolved officially yet an example being the Flint pick in 2020 should be going to Peterborough and Windsor would retain the Kitchener pick in 2024 that was a conditional in the Cuylle trade.

Won't guarantee it's 100% but as close as I've been able to get it from the draft pick database and trying to chase down some of the info.

Up to 2024

5 x 2nds (2020,21,22,23,24 or 21,22,23,24 x 2)
3 x 3rds (2022, 23 x 2, 23)
4 x 4ths (2020, 21, 22, 24)

Not horrible but considering the roster still has some question marks it's not enough to make the type of improvements they would need to make a serious run. They need to make a few moves like Oshawa did last year, a couple of players who will return solid pick value while not completely depleting the roster so they have a shot at 2nd/3rd in the division or 4th/5th in the conference. While attainable they are relying heavily on youth to do this so expectations should be tempered.

The reality is if Windsor can get a couple of kids to report who haven't yet they should be able to get younger from within without sacrificing much in terms of talent. An 01/02 coming in who can have a similar impact as Purboo who will bring a decent, not great return. He should be sliding down the roster only to make room for the youth which allows for a younger kid from within to fill his role on a lower line while accumulating assets.

Draft Picks (Only picks from 2020 through 2024 can be traded)
2020 – 1st, FLT 2nd, KIT 4th, OSH 4th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, GUE 12th, 13th, OTT 14th, WSR 15th
2021 – 1st, LDN 2nd, 4th, ERI 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, BAR 15th, OTT 15th (COND)
2022 – 1st, OTT 2nd, 3rd, ERI 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th
2023 – 1st, OTT 2nd, KIT 3rd, KNG 3rd, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th, NIA 15th (COND)
2024 – 1st, KGN 2nd, BAR 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
2025 – 1st, KGN 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
2026 – 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
2027 – 1st, 2nd, KGN 2nd (COND), 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th
2028 – 1st, 2nd, KGN 2nd (COND), 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 15th

Conditions
- OTT 15 2021 tied to unspecified conditions in WIlliam Sirman trade
- WSR 15th 2022 tied to unspecified conditions in Ben Garagan trade
- WSR 4th 2023 will go to Ottawa if Hunter Carrick plays one game with Windsor (per Windsor Star)
- NIA 15th 2023 becomes a 6th in 2022 if Christian Stevens plays one game for NIA (per Windsor Star)
- KIT 2nd 2024 will become an earlier 2nd if Windsor acquires a 2nd in 2020 or 2021 (per Windsor Star). Cuylle trade. Flint 2nd in 2020 should go to Peterborough and Windsor retains Kitchener 2nd in 2024?
- KGN 2nd 2027 & 2028 will go to Windsor if Gabriel Vilardi returns for the 2018-19 season (per Windsor Star)