Speculation: Willy Nilly XX

[PromisedLand]

Dubas and Gross met again today? Well that’s something. I don’t know what, but at least it is something and something is better than nothing.

depends whether that "something" is a net positive or net negative; sometimes nothing is better than a negative something

 

[PromisedLand]

Theoretically, this can still last another 6 weeks.

As you were...

If willy signs on or near Dec. 1st that will have cap savings starting next season

 

[PromisedLand]

I'm getting my hopes up!!

Haven't listened to the interview on TSN but title says "Nylander was on the ice for over 2 hours this morning"

He's really trying to get into game shape.

Man please link me the article

EDIT: Nevermind found it. THank you Google

https://www.tsn.ca/radio/toronto-10...e-ice-for-over-2-hours-this-morning-1.1195988

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

What if we sign Nylander, make him 3rd line center, and trade Kadri for a defender?

I like Kadri, but I like Nylander more.

I agree that Nylander is a more valuable asset, but it doesn't sit right with me to ship out a home grown player on a steal of a contract in order to meet Nylander's greedy demands. Plus we don't really know if Nylander can be as effective at center while saddled with two inept wingers

 

[Notsince67]

regarding his comment: “I don’t think the thought of trading William Nylander, at this point in time, has even crossed the mind of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Kyle Dubas”.

Not trying to start an argument but how is it that you are now ok with "speculation"? Not that I'm not buying it but you were pretty vocal on the "speculation" regarding Nylander's demands.
Sigh...I can't wait until this is over and all the information comes out.

 

[Notsince67]

The problem is the leafs might not be the team who can give Nylander big bucks after his bridge.

I dont see how the leafs can afford to resign Nylander after a bridge. There would have to be a serious increase in the cap or he would have to severely underperform as I think he is a lock for 70 points at least once in the next couple years and so will get paid a lot.

Have to consider a Rielly resign not far after any bridge deal so ya I really dont want a bridge option unless he is being traded.

It is pretty simple. When the time comes, the most valuable player/contract combination will either stay or go if there is a crunch. From a team perspective this isn't about Nylander vs Marner. It is about value/$$. Anybody could be moved.
From his perspective, I just don't know.

 

[Notsince67]

I agree that Nylander is a more valuable asset, but it doesn't sit right with me to ship out a home grown player on a steal of a contract in order to meet Nylander's greedy demands. Plus we don't really know if Nylander can be as effective at center while saddled with two inept wingers

In a cap world it is all about value/$$. Without a cap, I'm sure the leafs would sign all kinds of great players

 

[MyBudJT]

Doesn’t make a difference. The escaltor doesn’t change growth rates over multiple year periods. If the PA had used 0% every year since Kane/Toews or 5% every year the total cap growth over that period would be almost identical.

But the NHLPA doesn't use the same % every year.... some years they use quite a bit, some years they use none... right??

Maybe I don't have a full grasp on it, but doesn't the escaltor allow for an increased cap if the NHL doesn't increase their profits from a season...? Doesn't the escalator give the NHLPA flexibility to increase the cap IF they wanted to? I'm pretty sure thats what has been done over the 3 or 4 of the last 5 years...

 

[Notsince67]

True enough. The mere thought of some idiot asking Kadri that makes me a little bit ill.

The media can be a pain but it is way better than it used to be.

 

[Cor]

What if we sign Nylander, make him 3rd line center, and trade Kadri for a defender?

I like Kadri, but I like Nylander more.

Who would handle the defensive situations and matchups?

Nylander theoretically could be effective, especially with his ability to exit our zone and move the puck, but I’m not sure Babcock would trust him.

So it’d be either Tavares or Matthews and shouldn’t we want them to take as many of the offensive minutes as we can? But then it could be argued that they should be able to take the defensive situations and turn them into offensive situations.

Hmmmm

 

[lovemyleafs]

Not sure if this has been mentioned but Dubas is at the Philly/Avs game.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Agree completely, but having a contract dispute or sitting out.... is a bit different bc players might not mind in the beginning....but after a while it takes such a negative effect since some reporters ie Simmons might ask Kadri, do you think it is fair for Willie to sit out while you took a discount to stay with the team?

To be honest, at the time, it wasn't a discount. Nobody thought he would become the player he is today. For real, did you think he would score 30+ goals twice while being a matchup centre? If he thought he would be that, he would have signed for more. There is no discount.

 

[Cleetus]

To be honest, at the time, it wasn't a discount. Nobody thought he would become the player he is today. For real, did you think he would score 30+ goals twice while being a matchup centre? If he thought he would be that, he would have signed for more. There is no discount.

this, no way he signs that deal with that amount of production, he would prob have wanted 6+, I don't buy this hometown discount BS.

 

[Menzinger]

regarding his comment: “I don’t think the thought of trading William Nylander, at this point in time, has even crossed the mind of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Kyle Dubas”.

Not trying to start an argument but how is it that you are now ok with "speculation"? Not that I'm not buying it but you were pretty vocal on the "speculation" regarding Nylander's demands.
Sigh...I can't wait until this is over and all the information comes out.

Because if some folks are going to give some speculation credit I’d rather they have access to the full range of perspectives rather than the ones that fit their narrow biases.

And McKenzie in particular I’d say is wildly considered to be one of the worlds top hockey journalists (if not THE top one) so his interpretation of events has value to the discussion

 

[mouser]

But the NHLPA doesn't use the same % every year.... some years they use quite a bit, some years they use none... right??

Maybe I don't have a full grasp on it, but doesn't the escaltor allow for an increased cap if the NHL doesn't increase their profits from a season...? Doesn't the escalator give the NHLPA flexibility to increase the cap IF they wanted to? I'm pretty sure thats what has been done over the 3 or 4 of the last 5 years...

The PA has been using 5% almost every year up until the past few The NHL has increased their revenue every season.

Where the confusion comes from is when you see reports “the cap will decrease if the PA doesn’t use the escaltor”. What that means is year over year NHL revenue growth was less then 5% (or whatever the prior years escaltor was). Simple example**:

Year 1:
- NHL revenue is $2B

Year 2:
- The NHL sets the default cap at $50m based on the previous season revenue of $2B
- The PA has the option to use the escaltor.
— 0% means a cap of $50m
— 5% means a cap of $52.5m
- at the end of Year 2 they determine revenue grew by 4% to $2.08B

Year 3:
- The NHL sets the default cap at $52m based on the previous season revenue of $2.08B
- The PA has the option to use the escaltor
— 0% means the cap is $52m (a “drop” from the prior year’s $52.5m if the PA had used the 5% escaltor)
— 5% means the cap is $54.6m

Note revenue actually grew from year 1 to year 2. The perceived reason for a drop is due to the escaltor itself being used the prior year to inflate that year’s cap.


**This example is not using the exact cap formulas. It’s a highly simplified version to illustrate how the escaltor works.

 

[Liminality]

Not sure if this has been mentioned but Dubas is at the Philly/Avs game.

Looks like we're trading for Gritty.

 

[MyBudJT]

The PA has been using 5% almost every year up until the past few The NHL has increased their revenue every season.

Where the confusion comes from is when you see reports “the cap will decrease if the PA doesn’t use the escaltor”. What that means is year over year NHL revenue growth was less then 5% (or whatever the prior years escaltor was). Simple example**:

Year 1:
- NHL revenue is $2B

Year 2:
- The NHL sets the default cap at $50m based on the previous season revenue of $2B
- The PA has the option to use the escaltor.
— 0% means a cap of $50m
— 5% means a cap of $52.5m
- at the end of Year 2 they determine revenue grew by 4% to $2.08B

Year 3:
- The NHL sets the default cap at $52m based on the previous season revenue of $2.08B
- The PA has the option to use the escaltor
— 0% means the cap is $52m (a “drop” from the prior year’s $52.5m if the PA had used the 5% escaltor)
— 5% means the cap is $54.6m

Note revenue actually grew from year 1 to year 2. The perceived reason for a drop is due to the escaltor itself being used the prior year to inflate that year’s cap.


**This example is not using the exact cap formulas. It’s a highly simplified version to illustrate how the escaltor works.

Thanks for the articulate post... that’s how I thought it works, I probably just articulated it poorly.

 

[Antropovsky]

Damn, why isn’t there a Seth Jones type prospect available when you need him to be. Columbus was sure in the right place at the right time for that deal.

 

[MyBudJT]

Not sure if this has been mentioned but Dubas is at the Philly/Avs game.

Cue the “Dubas having marital problems” or “Dubas doesn’t want to be around his infant child” posts!

 

[socko]

I don't doubt Willy hasn't been actively shopped, because once that happens it will leak. But they haven't thought about it? Yes, they have.

My offer still isn't a dime more than my last offer before the season started. Any savings to the cap from the holdout, goes to the Leafs.

 

[HolyCrap]

The PA has been using 5% almost every year up until the past few The NHL has increased their revenue every season.

Where the confusion comes from is when you see reports “the cap will decrease if the PA doesn’t use the escaltor”. What that means is year over year NHL revenue growth was less then 5% (or whatever the prior years escaltor was). Simple example**:

Year 1:
- NHL revenue is $2B

Year 2:
- The NHL sets the default cap at $50m based on the previous season revenue of $2B
- The PA has the option to use the escaltor.
— 0% means a cap of $50m
— 5% means a cap of $52.5m
- at the end of Year 2 they determine revenue grew by 4% to $2.08B

Year 3:
- The NHL sets the default cap at $52m based on the previous season revenue of $2.08B
- The PA has the option to use the escaltor
— 0% means the cap is $52m (a “drop” from the prior year’s $52.5m if the PA had used the 5% escaltor)
— 5% means the cap is $54.6m

Note revenue actually grew from year 1 to year 2. The perceived reason for a drop is due to the escaltor itself being used the prior year to inflate that year’s cap.


**This example is not using the exact cap formulas. It’s a highly simplified version to illustrate how the escaltor works.

It blows my mind away how well educated you are on the business of hockey. You know the CBA inside and out.

 

[Hclass47]

Leafs 2022-2023
Hyman 3.5mill x 5
Marner 8mill x 8
Kapanen 5mill x4 (high estimate)
Matthews 11millx8
Grundstrom 2 millx3
Nylander 8millx8 (signed after a bridge)
Johnsson 2millx4
XXXX 4millx4
4th line + sub XXXX 1 mill each
Dermott (3millx3)
Ozhiganov (2.5millx4)
Andersen (7millx5)
Sparks (2millx4)

Hyman (3.5) - Tavares (11) - Marner (8)
Kapanen (5) - Matthews (11) - Nylander (8)
Johnsson(2) - XXXX(4mill) - Grundstrom (2)
XXXX (1) - XXXX (1) - XXXX (1)
XXXX (1)
Forwards: 58 mill

Rielly (9) - Liljegren (1)
Dermott (3) - Zaitsev (4.5)
Sandin (1) - Ozhiganov (2.5)
XXXX (1)
Defence: 22 mill

Andersen (7)
Sparks (2)
Goaltenders: 9mill

Total:89 mill

4 seasons from now with a reasonable increase of about 2 mill a year in cap ceiling would give us this. Now, obviously its tight, but doable. The biggest thing is no upgrades have been made via trade or FA between now and then, but this is a roster that includes guys like AJ, Kapanen, etc. who could have been traded for upgrades and therefore their money doesnt count against the books.

Overall budget looks decent. Some guys will be +- what you have suggested. Lily may be on his second deal by then and pending if he’s on a bridge or long term he could be another problematic signing. The accounting will get messy when you do look at upgrades via trade or FA. There literally is 0 budget to add to the team other than internally.

 

[PromisedLand]