Will we Know By Game 20 If Sidney Crosby Really Is "The Next One"?

Status
Not open for further replies.

Yayo

Guest
Lynn Belvedere said:
A guy who takes 4 years to develop is a Joe Sakic or a Mark Messier...

Hey, Sakic scored 102 points and finished tenth in league scoring in his second year...

Just sayin'. Not really adding anything important.
 

Spungo*

Guest
Brule said:
Regardless of what people call players, be it "the next one" or "best prospect in the last 20 years", 20 games isn't enough. Give him 2-3 seasons before you make any final decisions whether he is indeed "The next Gretzky" or not.

20 games might be short but, like you said, we better see some flashes of brilliance in those first 20 games if he's supposed to be the next Gretzky.

2-3 years is way too long IMO. If you are that "once every 20 years" type phenom, you should be able to rack up big numbers right from the get go. Waiting 2-3 years on a great prospect is perfectly fine, and maybe that's all that Crosby is... a great prospect.

But that's not what he's been sold as. Crosby developing into just another Peter Forsberg isn't going to "save the NHL". Hell, that's not enough to save the Penguins. Gretzky absolutely dominated. Nobody was even close to him when he was scoring 200+ points. He had more assists than any other player had points. Now that is domination.

You simply can't start as a ho-hum player and reach those levels. It would be nice if you could, but you can't. You have to start right at the top or very near the top, so that when you enter your prime, you are completely dominant.
 

RockLobster

King in the North
Jul 5, 2003
27,092
7,234
Kansas
Lynn Belvedere said:
20 games might be short but, like you said, we better see some flashes of brilliance in those first 20 games if he's supposed to be the next Gretzky.

2-3 years is way too long IMO. If you are that "once every 20 years" type phenom, you should be able to rack up big numbers right from the get go. Waiting 2-3 years on a great prospect is perfectly fine, and maybe that's all that Crosby is... a great prospect.

But that's not what he's been sold as. Crosby developing into just another Peter Forsberg isn't going to "save the NHL". Hell, that's not enough to save the Penguins. Gretzky absolutely dominated. Nobody was even close to him when he was scoring 200+ points. He had more assists than any other player had points. Now that is domination.

You simply can't start as a ho-hum player and reach those levels. It would be nice if you could, but you can't. You have to start right at the top or very near the top, so that when you enter your prime, you are completely dominant.

However, are we all supposed to expect him to break that 215 points-a-season record held by Gretzky? Or score 92 goals in a season? Or have well over 2000 points by the end of his career (can't remember the real stat on that one).

While I think Crosby will be the "Next One" so to speak, I think it will be different than Wayne Gretzky. First of all, the NHL itself is different than it was when Gretz broke in, or Mario. I don't think that the new rule changes will make THAT much of an offensive difference.

I think in time (a season or 2) we'll see Sid produce numbers that will have us calling him the "Gretzky of this hockey generation". I don't see him netting 215 points a season, or getting 92 goals in a season. The goalies are too good now, and the defensemen are too physical (I am NOT taking ANYTHING away from the goalies/defensemen of the past, that was a different time, a different era).

Just my two cents.
 

Luigi Lemieux

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
21,440
9,062
i think after watching a full season of him we will be able to tell if he has that type of elite talent or not. it is indeed true that both gretzky and lemieux were one of the best players in the nhl the minute they stepped onto the ice.

even so, the fact that people are projecting him to be gretzky or lemieux is ludicrous. sure it's possible, but not probable. i'll be very very happy if he has a lafleur or jagr(minus the whining) or forsberg(minus the injuries) type career. (who can complain about 5 years as best player in the world?)
 

Luigi Lemieux

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
21,440
9,062
KSGuy2325 said:
However, are we all supposed to expect him to break that 215 points-a-season record held by Gretzky? Or score 92 goals in a season? Or have well over 2000 points by the end of his career (can't remember the real stat on that one).

While I think Crosby will be the "Next One" so to speak, I think it will be different than Wayne Gretzky. First of all, the NHL itself is different than it was when Gretz broke in, or Mario. I don't think that the new rule changes will make THAT much of an offensive difference.

I think in time (a season or 2) we'll see Sid produce numbers that will have us calling him the "Gretzky of this hockey generation". I don't see him netting 215 points a season, or getting 92 goals in a season. The goalies are too good now, and the defensemen are too physical (I am NOT taking ANYTHING away from the goalies/defensemen of the past, that was a different time, a different era).

Just my two cents.
you're missing the point though. NOBODY expects those types of numbers, even those who say he's the next gretzky. what people mean is they expect similar relative domination. if the second place scorer has 100 pts, sid would have to score 150 pts and we would consider that gretz/mario level. no one should expect that he will do it, but that's what people mean. i don't even think stockwizard believes he'll score 90 goals and 200 pts.
 

GnomE

Registered User
Mar 17, 2005
281
1
KSGuy, so what type of numbers do you expect him to produce if he fulfils the promise of being "the next one"? If the scoring increases but not by much. If it would be back to the way it was in the early 90s?
 

Chootoi

Registered User
Jan 7, 2005
3,744
143
i see him having no problem scoring a 1PPG average in his rookie year while centering lemieux/recchi, PP time, etc... rico fata could hit a point per game with those linemates. as for his career, i think he'll be a consistent 100 point player. probably hit 50 goals 4-5 times, but the assists is where he'll rack up the points, as he did in junior. he's got awesome vision and anticipation to set guys up, as did his "mentors". regardless, he'll have his fair share of hardware. unless the game gets changed even more drastically though (way beyond the current changes) i think no one is touching gretzky's 92 goals, or 215 points.
 

Trottier

Very Random
Feb 27, 2002
29,232
14
San Diego
Visit site
Lynn Belvedere said:
Crosby isn't being hyped as a solid NHL player. He's not being hyped as a good player. Hell, he's not even being hyped as a great player. He is being hyped as "The Next One". A Gretzky or a Lemieux. By those standards, shouldn't we know very early on if this kid really has what the all-time greats had?

Both Gretzky and Lemieux tore it up their first seasons. From the first times they stepped on NHL ice, you could tell that both were special. Gretzky tied for #1 in the scoring race his rookie year and Lemiuex finished top 10. If Crosby doesn't reach those standards, should we relegate him to future star or future superstar instead of "Next One" status?

Why wait that long?

We should know by the end of his first shift. C'mon! It shouldn't take a guy 20 games to measure up to two immortals who together have produced nearly 40 years of greatness.

Let's get back to reality...PLEASE. :rolleyes:
 

GameFace247SON

@NHLonICE
Jun 11, 2005
446
0
Philadelphia
www.thenhlonice.com
In response to the topic introduced by the thread, I would say that by Game 20 you could know that he is "The Next Next One," but if he underperforms to that point, you can't determine his future. He is a Penguin, after all, and his best years will more than likely not be in that jersey. ;) Just sayin.
 

Luigi Lemieux

Registered User
Sep 26, 2003
21,440
9,062
GameFace247SON said:
In response to the topic introduced by the thread, I would say that by Game 20 you could know that he is "The Next Next One," but if he underperforms to that point, you can't determine his future. He is a Penguin, after all, and his best years will more than likely not be in that jersey. ;) Just sayin.
true, just like lemieux's, jagr's, francis's, and kovalev's best years weren't. ;)
 

pei fan

Registered User
Jan 3, 2004
2,536
0
Lynn Belvedere said:
The fact is that Gretzky and Lemiuex tore up the league as 18 year olds. If a players is deemed "The Next One", why shouldn't he have the stuff to do the same? If he doesn't have the stuff, he ain't "The Next One". He is mearly a good to great NHL prospect. Don't sell me gold and tell me its platinum.
Actually Lemieux was 19 his first year in the NHL(almost a full year older than
Sidney will be) and Wayne played as a 18/19 year old (was closer to Sidney
as a 19 year old than at 18).

I do agree with your premise that he should do great things right away,
however with some consideration for age and alot of consideration for
how the game has changed.When Mario and Wayne started they were allowed
to go and do their thing but now players are required to stick to strict
team systems.As one pundit put it the game has been coached to death,
and a perfect example of this is how Sidney was over coached and
under utilized at both WJC's.

I definetly believe he will contend for the scoring race if he's given the chance,
but listening to Craig Patrick I'm not 100% sure he will be.
 

DTD With a Knee

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
1,854
0
State of Denial
Visit site
Lynn Belvedere said:
Did you not notice Gretzky tied for 1st in the scoring race his rookie year? Did you not notice Lemieux finished with over a 100 points and was top 10 in scoring his rookie year? If Crosby is that breed of player (remember, we are not talking about the Sakic, Messier, Forsberg level, we are talking about the elite of the elite... the household name, the guy even non-hockey fans talk about) why should Crosby be held to a different standard?

To be fair, Lemieux was just outside the top 10 in scoring his rookie year, with 100 pts on the dot. Last season, the #10 scorer had 79 pts. If Crosby is around that or exceeds it, we can at least say that he started out comparable to Mario on paper. A Gretzky comparison though would be impossible. Even if you consider his rookie year as 78-79 in the WHA, he finished 3rd in scoring with 110.

But Mario justifies the argument that the legends are great in year one, and legends in year 2. Not saying Crosby definitely will be a legend, but we may know 20 games into his 2nd year. If he shows some of the flashes of brilliance in year 1 that Lemieux did (like scoring on his first shift), that would at least warrant the hype continuing.
 

Vlad The Impaler

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
12,315
644
Montreal
Lynn Belvedere said:
Did you not notice Gretzky tied for 1st in the scoring race his rookie year? Did you not notice Lemieux finished with over a 100 points and was top 10 in scoring his rookie year? If Crosby is that breed of player (remember, we are not talking about the Sakic, Messier, Forsberg level, we are talking about the elite of the elite... the household name, the guy even non-hockey fans talk about) why should Crosby be held to a different standard?

The fact is that Gretzky and Lemiuex tore up the league as 18 year olds. If a players is deemed "The Next One", why shouldn't he have the stuff to do the same? If he doesn't have the stuff, he ain't "The Next One". He is mearly a good to great NHL prospect. Don't sell me gold and tell me its platinum.


Hello Lynn.

Forgetting for a minute that the "next one" talk is pure bull**** IMO, I'll play.

The reason it is improbable (not impossible) another 18 year old will ever have that kind of impact is because the league has changed a great deal.

It's a coach-heavy league, where players are expected to be complete and well-rounded. This is why on average, we are seeing less dominant elite 18 years old in general, regardless if they are Gretz-level or Yzerman-level or whatever.

It's unlikely (again, not impossible) a prospect similar to Roenick would give an impressive early output, JR-style. And so on.

This doesn't change the great accomplishments of past players. It's just a different league. The junior coaches are knocking on CHL players sometimes more heavily than the NHL did back in the days as far as discipline, defense, etc.

It's also a physically more demanding game with bigger, faster player. Your physical immaturity usually shows once you jump.

Finally, the gap in contribution between stars and role players has lesened. Which means even the "next Gretzky" (whatever that means) might look less spectacular today. It's a four-line game. Checkers still give you a Bob Gainey output (40 points) but your first liners give you less. Your shifts are short, your mistakes are glaring and opposing coaches capitalize on them. The hits are heavy and the players big and fast.

Now, much of this written with the modern NHL in mind. There is talk they want a new NHL but I don't know how successful this will be. This could change some of what I have written over time.

The bottom line is, you are comparing two vastly different eras of hockey. The 18 years old of today are not facing the same game conditions.
 

ZombieMatt

Registered User
May 20, 2002
5,242
1
Sidney Crosby will never be the "Next One" simply because of the nature of such a lofty title. Expectations have been set so high for this kid that nobody could conceivably ever reach them. Everybody expects this kid to come in and be the best player in the league in his first year, and then go on to challenge all sorts of records set in an entirely different era of the sport.

Sidney Crosby could score 50 goals this year and there will still be people saying he didn't live up to expectations. No matter what he does he's going to be criticized.
 

Form and Substance

Registered User
Jun 11, 2004
5,670
0
20 games is nothing, Crosby had 74 pts in the first 35 games last year and people started jumping off the bandwagon, needless to say he then scored 94 pts in the remaining 27 games and led a decent Oceanics lineup to the memorial cup finals. So basing his potential over a twenty game sample is an insanely inane thing to do. It's how he plays down the stretch that'll determine his true worth. I mean what if he piles up 30 pts in his first 20 games and goes through a slump for the remainder of the year?
 

Gumby

Registered User
Nov 14, 2003
2,822
0
By the beach!! FL
Visit site
Crosby shouldn't be expected to live up to anything other than his potential just because a bunch of clueless sportswriters and overzealous fans have tagged him with this ridiculous Gretz/Lemeuix label and everyone has run with it. Now this poor kid has basically had an entire league put on his back, through no fault of his own, because some writer starts this hype and now everywhere you look you see "saviour of the nhl" put on an 18 year old kid....thats pressure enough to crush anyone, especially a kid.

Given the huge change in size in the players since Gretzky's days and his lack thereof, along with, as others have said, the emphasis on team play now I think it's gonna be a tough adjustment on him, and thats fine. I still think he's gonna be a great player, but the pressure put on this kid because of this out of control hype-mania could really easily crush him under these unrealistic expectations.

I'm just really glad being a Caps fan that AO is Russian instead of Canadian so he doesn't have this on him.....actually with all the Crosby-mania he's got very little pressure on him...heh, he's only gotta save a franchise instead of a whole league.
 

RockLobster

King in the North
Jul 5, 2003
27,092
7,234
Kansas
GnomE said:
KSGuy, so what type of numbers do you expect him to produce if he fulfils the promise of being "the next one"? If the scoring increases but not by much. If it would be back to the way it was in the early 90s?


I think that if he can manage 150-160 point seasons in today's NHL then I would certainly call him the "Gretzky of our Hockey Generation".
 

kruezer

Registered User
Apr 21, 2002
6,718
274
North Bay
Matt MacInnis said:
Sidney Crosby will never be the "Next One" simply because of the nature of such a lofty title. Expectations have been set so high for this kid that nobody could conceivably ever reach them. Everybody expects this kid to come in and be the best player in the league in his first year, and then go on to challenge all sorts of records set in an entirely different era of the sport.

Sidney Crosby could score 50 goals this year and there will still be people saying he didn't live up to expectations. No matter what he does he's going to be criticized.
I concur, I'd rather the players were judged more in relation to their peers and less to records from different era's, hell, Gretzky never broke Joe Malone's GPG record, is he just another scrub?

That said, I do believe we'll be able to tell fairly quickly just how dominant Crosby will be, Lynn's point stands in that regard, but I think it should be more in relation to how he actually dominates the games we are watching, not scoring records.

For interests sake, these are Ilya Kovalchuk's (the best young player in the N, depending on Heatley, IMO) stats from his first three seasons, on a team with less help than Pitt should be giving Sid.

2003-04 Atlanta NHL 81 41 46 87 -10 63 341 12.02
2002-03 Atlanta NHL 81 38 29 67 -24 57 257 14.79
2001-02 Atlanta NHL 65 29 22 51 -19 28 184 15.76

If Sidney gets 60 points in his first year, that puts him on par with Ilya or Heater I think.

I think he'll be better than them, but I'm prepared to eat some crow on that one.

I thought I'd add as an aside, that I fully expect Kovalchuk to have 50 goals and 100 points this year, improved scoring or not.
 

Baron Von Shark

Registered User
Feb 21, 2003
3,274
0
CA
Visit site
DarkMetamorphisis made a very good point: regardless of how much the league has changed, we are talking about relative domination. Thus, if the #1-10 top scorers in the league range from 80-110 points, Crosby would be expected to fall in that range as well (for those that feel he is truly the "next one").
 

Vlad The Impaler

Registered User
Feb 27, 2002
12,315
644
Montreal
Baron Von Shark said:
DarkMetamorphisis made a very good point: regardless of how much the league has changed, we are talking about relative domination. Thus, if the #1-10 top scorers in the league range from 80-110 points, Crosby would be expected to fall in that range as well (for those that feel he is truly the "next one").

Would he? As I said, I just don't think this league treats 18 years old the same way it used to.

I understand the point of relative scoring, but IMO, this age factor has to be considered. Collective and defensive play, discipline and physicality are now different from what they used to be.

It is belief that at equal talent/potential, it is more difficult today for an 18 years old to compete.
 

UvBnDatsyuked

Registered User
Apr 30, 2005
2,186
1
Vlad The Impaler said:
Hello Lynn.

Forgetting for a minute that the "next one" talk is pure bull**** IMO, I'll play.

The reason it is improbable (not impossible) another 18 year old will ever have that kind of impact is because the league has changed a great deal.

It's a coach-heavy league, where players are expected to be complete and well-rounded. This is why on average, we are seeing less dominant elite 18 years old in general, regardless if they are Gretz-level or Yzerman-level or whatever.

It's unlikely (again, not impossible) a prospect similar to Roenick would give an impressive early output, JR-style. And so on.

This doesn't change the great accomplishments of past players. It's just a different league. The junior coaches are knocking on CHL players sometimes more heavily than the NHL did back in the days as far as discipline, defense, etc.

It's also a physically more demanding game with bigger, faster player. Your physical immaturity usually shows once you jump.

Finally, the gap in contribution between stars and role players has lesened. Which means even the "next Gretzky" (whatever that means) might look less spectacular today. It's a four-line game. Checkers still give you a Bob Gainey output (40 points) but your first liners give you less. Your shifts are short, your mistakes are glaring and opposing coaches capitalize on them. The hits are heavy and the players big and fast.

Now, much of this written with the modern NHL in mind. There is talk they want a new NHL but I don't know how successful this will be. This could change some of what I have written over time.

The bottom line is, you are comparing two vastly different eras of hockey. The 18 years old of today are not facing the same game conditions.

Couldn't agree more.

I look at it like this, if we could magically put Crosby into 1985 How would he do? I would say awesome. Points galore.

But that's not comparing apples to apples because it was a totally different game back then. Todays game is a game that Rod Langway probably would be a career AHLer instead of a captain and Stanley Cup winner
 

joe_shannon_1983*

Guest
Lynn Belvedere?

I am agreeing with a lot of what you are saying in your posts.

But why did you even start the thread if you are already sure that you know the answer?

You asked if we will know by game 20 if Crosby is "The Next One" or not. It seems as though you already have your mind made up about that though (that we will know by game 20 if he is "The Next One" or not). So why did you ask?
 

colonel_korn

Luuuuuuuuuu....lay?
Nov 30, 2002
7,360
1
St John's, NL
Visit site
Lynn Belvedere said:
Will we Know By Game 20 If Sidney Crosby Really Is "The Next One"?

Definitely.

I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that if Crosby has 30 points or more by the 20th game of the season, he can indeed be annointed "The Next One" and will likely break Gretzky's scoring records at some point in his career.

29 points or fewer and I have no doubt that he'll be remembered along with Alexander Daigle as one of the greatest busts in NHL draft history. :teach:
 

Timmy

Registered User
Feb 2, 2005
10,691
26
colonel_korn said:
Definitely.

I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that if Crosby has 30 points or more by the 20th game of the season, he can indeed be annointed "The Next One" and will likely break Gretzky's scoring records at some point in his career.

29 points or fewer and I have no doubt that he'll be remembered along with Alexander Daigle as one of the greatest busts in NHL draft history. :teach:


:biglaugh:

Classic, Korny.

Just classic...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Ad

Upcoming events

Ad

Ad

-->