Will we Know By Game 20 If Sidney Crosby Really Is "The Next One"?

[Spungo*]

Crosby isn't being hyped as a solid NHL player. He's not being hyped as a good player. Hell, he's not even being hyped as a great player. He is being hyped as "The Next One". A Gretzky or a Lemieux. By those standards, shouldn't we know very early on if this kid really has what the all-time greats had?

Both Gretzky and Lemieux tore it up their first seasons. From the first times they stepped on NHL ice, you could tell that both were special. Gretzky tied for #1 in the scoring race his rookie year and Lemiuex finished top 10. If Crosby doesn't reach those standards, should we relegate him to future star or future superstar instead of "Next One" status?

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[Seachd]

I think calling him "The Next One" or anything other than "Sidney Crosby" is completely unfair. I also think it'll take a lot more than 20 games before anyone should be bumping up or knocking down their expectations.

 

[SedinFan*]

2 seasons and then you'll know, with production levels increasing.

 

[octopi]

Certainly not. Ever heard of Joe Thorton? He was supposed to be "The next one" back when, but his first year he had all kinds of adjustment problems,up and down into the minors. Now, of course, he's one of the better players in the NHL, but it was touch and go for awhile there.

 

[Vincent_TheGreat]

Crosby isn't being hyped as a solid NHL player. He's not being hyped as a good player. Hell, he's not even being hyped as a great player. He is being hyped as "The Next One". A Gretzky or a Lemieux. By those standards, shouldn't we know very early on if this kid really has what the all-time greats had?

Both Gretzky and Lemieux tore it up their first seasons. From the first times they stepped on NHL ice, you could tell that both were special. Gretzky tied for #1 in the scoring race his rookie year and Lemiuex finished top 10. If Crosby doesn't reach those standards, should we relegate him to future star or future superstar instead of "Next One" status?

I'm not basing anything on a rookie season unless he is spectacular and scores 80 points!

 

[Spungo*]

Certainly not. Ever heard of Joe Thorton? He was supposed to be "The next one" back when, but his first year he had all kinds of adjustment problems,up and down into the minors. Now, of course, he's one of the better players in the NHL, but it was touch and go for awhile there.

Joe Thornton isn't in the same stratosphere as Wayne Gretzky. At this point in each players career, Gretzky had won 6 scoring races, 6 Hart Trophies as league MVP and won 2 Stanley Cups... on his way to 2 more.

So you proved my point. We found out that Joe Thronton was not The Next One. He is mearly a great NHL player. On Wayne Gretzky's worst day in Edmonton, he was twice as good as Thornton on his best day.

If you are going to compare Crosby to Gretzky, Sidney needs to be held to Gretzky-like standards.

 

[Spungo*]

I think calling him "The Next One" or anything other than "Sidney Crosby" is completely unfair. I also think it'll take a lot more than 20 games before anyone should be bumping up or knocking down their expectations.

But why is that? Gretzky and Lemiuex both showed they had the "it factor" from game 1 in the NHL. You either have it or you don't. It's not something you develop. If they were comparing Crosby to Messier or to Sakic, that would be different. I would say he has 3 years to develop into that kind of player.

But people are comparing him to Gretzly and Lemiuex. You can't "develop" into that kind of mega-star. You either are or you aren't. If people are expecting him to be "The Next One", that isn't the expectation that he will be good or great, but he will be a mega-star. I think we will know very early on if he's that breed of player. I'm not saying it's Sudney's fault, but this kind of hype has to be backep up.

 

[temporary pencil]

I can`t wait for the day when people will compare Crosby to... Crosby!

 

[God Bless Canada]

Anyone who tries to evaluate Crosby by game 20 has no clue about how to evaluate young talent. The kid doesn't turn 18 until next month. You can't evaluate him for several years.

 

[Unholy Diver]

I would say by game 27, by then he should be closing in on 80pts

 

[tomerez]

Regardless of whether or not Crosby does well in his first 20 games, or even in his first 82 games, we will not have enough evidence to make a sound judgement on whether or not he is "The Next One". If he does incredible his first year, there will always be critics saying his stats were inflated by Super Mario. Furthermore, a career isn't assessed on one year, there weren't people proclaiming Gretzky as the best player to ever play the game after one season. It took Gretzky a full career to establish his reputation and we won't be able to properly judge Crosby as a player until he's a veteran in the league.

After all, Alexandre Daigle and Eric Lindros started their careers off fairly well. While many would have jumped the gun expecting them to eventually be mentioned in the same breath as Gretzky and Lemieux, the two would now have trouble cracking an NHL lineup.

 

[Hedberg]

I can`t wait for the day when people will compare Crosby to... Crosby!

That wouldn't really be a comparison then. Unless were comparing Sidney Crosby and another Crosby. What about comparing Sidney Crosby to Bill Cosby?

 

[temporary pencil]

That wouldn't really be a comparison then. Unless were comparing Sidney Crosby and another Crosby. What about comparing Sidney Crosby to Bill Cosby?

I meant it as comparing Crosby to what he had done himself during past seasons. Like, if he scores 100 points one year, the following year everyone's comparing his pace game by game to the previous season to see if he can repeat.

 

[jmelm]

Joe Thornton isn't in the same stratosphere as Wayne Gretzky. At this point in each players career, Gretzky had won 6 scoring races, 6 Hart Trophies as league MVP and won 2 Stanley Cups... on his way to 2 more.

So you proved my point. We found out that Joe Thronton was not The Next One. He is mearly a great NHL player. On Wayne Gretzky's worst day in Edmonton, he was twice as good as Thornton on his best day.

If you are going to compare Crosby to Gretzky, Sidney needs to be held to Gretzky-like standards.

But why is that? Gretzky and Lemiuex both showed they had the "it factor" from game 1 in the NHL. You either have it or you don't. It's not something you develop. If they were comparing Crosby to Messier or to Sakic, that would be different. I would say he has 3 years to develop into that kind of player.

But people are comparing him to Gretzly and Lemiuex. You can't "develop" into that kind of mega-star. You either are or you aren't. If people are expecting him to be "The Next One", that isn't the expectation that he will be good or great, but he will be a mega-star. I think we will know very early on if he's that breed of player. I'm not saying it's Sudney's fault, but this kind of hype has to be backep up.

Two of the more intelligent posts I've seen here in quite a while.

 

[Spungo*]

Anyone who tries to evaluate Crosby by game 20 has no clue about how to evaluate young talent. The kid doesn't turn 18 until next month. You can't evaluate him for several years.

Did you not notice Gretzky tied for 1st in the scoring race his rookie year? Did you not notice Lemieux finished with over a 100 points and was top 10 in scoring his rookie year? If Crosby is that breed of player (remember, we are not talking about the Sakic, Messier, Forsberg level, we are talking about the elite of the elite... the household name, the guy even non-hockey fans talk about) why should Crosby be held to a different standard?

The fact is that Gretzky and Lemiuex tore up the league as 18 year olds. If a players is deemed "The Next One", why shouldn't he have the stuff to do the same? If he doesn't have the stuff, he ain't "The Next One". He is mearly a good to great NHL prospect. Don't sell me gold and tell me its platinum.

Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Michael Jordan... what do these athletes have in common? They all had massive breakout rookie years. As 18 year olds, they had the stuff to dominate full grown men. They were superstars from the day they stepped on the ice or the court.

Labron James was declared "The Next One" in basketball and he backed it up. He was an 18 year old kid who dominated full grown men, just as Gretzky, Jordan and Lemieux had done before him. If Crosby is "The Next One" he will have to do the same. There is no way you can get around that.

I don't mean this in a bad way, but I really don't think you are comprehending what "The Next One" actually means. It doesn't mean "he might be a solid #1 centre 5 years from now. It doesn't mean he will be an NHL all-star 3 years from now. All-stars are a dime a dozen. It means he is the next Gretzky or Lemieux. Plain and simple.

To be "The Next One" you need to put up Gretzky-like performances or Lemieux-like performances. You need to be a dominant NHL'er from the get go. Not a guy who takes 4 years to develop into a 1st line centre, or even develops into an all-star. Being an All-star won't cut it and it doesn't make you "The Next One".

A guy who takes 4 years to develop is a Joe Sakic or a Mark Messier... NOT a Wayne Gretzky or a Mario Lemieux. Both those players dominated at every level of hockey their entire lives. There was no "development time" given to these players. They were expected to dominate, and they did. You can't develop the stuff Gretzky and Lemiuex had. You have it from pee-wee hockey all the way to the NHL level. We will know very early on if Crosby has that stuff. I'm hoping he does.

 

[HeyOhFernando]

if he doesnt break the teemu selane rookie scoring record.. its a failure. he should just quit

 

[BrettNYR]

I think calling him "The Next One" or anything other than "Sidney Crosby" is completely unfair. I also think it'll take a lot more than 20 games before anyone should be bumping up or knocking down their expectations.

No, it's fair. When you're that filthy rich at that age, nothing's unfair. Do I agree with it? No.

 

[FLYLine27*]

I would say by game 27, by then he should be closing in on 80pts

You forgot the sarcasm smiley. I'd say around 65 points by game 27.

 

[I Hate You All*]

 

[Yayo]

I would say by game 27, by then he should be closing in on 80pts

He has a decent shot at hitting the elusive 60/30 mark as well.

 

[KOVALEV10*]

Did you not notice Gretzky tied for 1st in the scoring race his rookie year? Did you not notice Lemieux finished with over a 100 points and was top 10 in scoring his rookie year? If Crosby is that breed of player (remember, we are not talking about the Sakic, Messier, Forsberg level, we are talking about the elite of the elite... the household name, the guy even non-hockey fans talk about) why should Crosby be held to a different standard?

The fact is that Gretzky and Lemiuex tore up the league as 18 year olds. If a players is deemed "The Next One", why shouldn't he have the stuff to do the same? If he doesn't have the stuff, he ain't "The Next One". He is mearly a good to great NHL prospect. Don't sell me gold and tell me its platinum.

Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Michael Jordan... what do these athletes have in common? They all had massive breakout rookie years. As 18 year olds, they had the stuff to dominate full grown men. They were superstars from the day they stepped on the ice or the court.

Labron James was declared "The Next One" in basketball and he backed it up. He was an 18 year old kid who dominated full grown men, just as Gretzky, Jordan and Lemieux had done before him. If Crosby is "The Next One" he will have to do the same. There is no way you can get around that.

I don't mean this in a bad way, but I really don't think you are comprehending what "The Next One" actually means. It doesn't mean "he might be a solid #1 centre 5 years from now. It doesn't mean he will be an NHL all-star 3 years from now. All-stars are a dime a dozen. It means he is the next Gretzky or Lemieux. Plain and simple.

To be "The Next One" you need to put up Gretzky-like performances or Lemieux-like performances. You need to be a dominant NHL'er from the get go. Not a guy who takes 4 years to develop into a 1st line centre, or even develops into an all-star. Being an All-star won't cut it and it doesn't make you "The Next One".

A guy who takes 4 years to develop is a Joe Sakic or a Mark Messier... NOT a Wayne Gretzky or a Mario Lemieux. Both those players dominated at every level of hockey their entire lives. There was no "development time" given to these players. They were expected to dominate, and they did. You can't develop the stuff Gretzky and Lemiuex had. You have it from pee-wee hockey all the way to the NHL level. We will know very early on if Crosby has that stuff. I'm hoping he does.

While I think your post is rather intelligent and I get your point I dont seem to agree with it completely. Let's say Crosby scores 60 points in his rookie year. Doesnt mean he still couldn't be one of the all time greats. Remember Howe in his first few years? Or Beliveau? Or Lafleur? They all took time to develop into players that are etched in the fans minds and are considered top 10 all time.

 

[Poe22222]

Despite what you might believe, Lafleur is not a good example of a Gretzky or a Lemieux. I believe that we will have a pretty good idea of whether Sidney can be "the next one" by the end of his rookie year (I don't know about 20 games). The reason why I think most are disagreeing with this is because most people aren't differentiating between Gretzky and a Guy Lafleur type. Gretzky absolutely shattered every record imaginable, and Lemieux displayed the same type of talent. We are talking a class of, in my opinion, three men: Orr, Lemieux, and Gretzky. Of course if Crosby gets 60 points he might turn into a Lafleur or a Forsberg or whatever, but I really doubt he will turn into a Gretzky or a Lemieux if he doesn't perform quite well this year. The NHL didn't even challenge guys like Orr and Lemieux. Orr kept the puck on his stick for like two minutes at a time. Lemieux would hall two defensemen on his back en route to a goal. This is a totally different level from the "everyday superstar" (sort of an oxymoron, but the point stands). We will know if Crosby can achieve the ultimate in hockey greatness fairly quickly in my opinion.

 

[Poe22222]

Oh one thing I forgot to mention, I think Gretzky started slower his rookie year and picked it up at the end, closed strong, and finished to tie Dionne in scoring. Therefore, twenty games might not have been enough time to judge Gretzky, which would strongly imply that it is not even time to judge anyone since Gretzky dominated the league more than anyone else ever has essentially from the very beginning.

 

[Chaos Giraffe]

We also have to keep in mind about Sidney showing flashes of dominance as well. Potential. Just because Sidney only gathers up 60 points in his rookie season, doesn't mean he's just "merely" another #1 center. It takes time to adjust to the NHL game. LeBron was simply GOOD in his rookie season, but it was only in his 2nd season that he proved why he was hyped as the next Jordan.

With only 20 games to judge Crosby, according to your expectations, it doesn't really prove anything. Look at Tuomo Ruutu's 1st half of his rookie season. His offensive production was probably comparable to Donald Brashear being blindfolded and hands tied behind his back. During the 2nd half of the season, his offensive production simply EXPLODED.

Regardless of what people call players, be it "the next one" or "best prospect in the last 20 years", 20 games isn't enough. Give him 2-3 seasons before you make any final decisions whether he is indeed "The next Gretzky" or not.

 

[tom_servo]

In my opinion, putting up 60+ points as an 18-year-old (...by the way, Lemieux was actually 19 during his rookie season) in this era is actually making a pretty good case for yourself as The Next One.