Will the MLS become one of the biggest leagues in the world in our lifetime?

Deleted member 93465

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Meh, I don't know about that. They've gotten themselves pretty well established after some turbulence at the beginning, the kind of turbulence that kills most leagues in their infancy.

MLS might not look a lot like it does now, but I'm confident it will be around.

People that say that they're not sure if MLS will survive clearly don't follow soccer in any capacity.

Seven, eight years ago, you might have still had a case for wondering where the league was going. Today, there's absolutely no doubt.

You're right, it won't look anything like it does now. It'll look a lot bigger. The improvement between 2006 and 2016 is stark. Between 2016 and 2036, it probably won't be recognizable.
 

Deleted member 93465

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Whatever you say, Grandpa. Baseball seems to do ok.

So, I can confess I'm not actually 2 years old (just act like it sometimes) but I see it in my kids. They and their friends are all into soccer (albeit mostly European), and these are not just immigrant kids. When my daughters school had a 'fan jersey day' she said after hockey, most kids wore soccer jerseys, and there there was a smattering of football,baseball and basketball. To them, football (as in CFL or NFL) is very boring because there's so much time with nothing happening, baseball is a bit better. I see soccer as pretty mainstream, they play it and they watch it. It's may not be in the next 10 years, but give it time and I totally see MLS reaching NHL status. The sports landscape in North America has been constantly changing over the last 150 years, so I don't see how anyone can believe it will suddenly remain status quo.

For MLS, though, those first two sentences are key. As long as people gravitate towards the best, MLS will have a hard time convincing them to support their league too.
 

Anton13

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Sep 3, 2012
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It is very hard for any North American sports league to compete with European soccer leagues on the global stage because of the time zone where they are. For example weekend EPL games usually start between 1pm and 5pm UK time which is morning in America and evening in Asia. You can easily watch those games live almost everywhere on this planet.
 

Big McLargehuge

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May 9, 2002
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I sincerely hope that you are 2 years old.

I do not see it happening. Soccer is just too boring to attract NA masses over the long haul. I think it's already reached its peak.

What an odd thing to say.

a.) I love baseball, but baseball is significantly more boring...and the sheer amount of downtime in American football leads to it being seen as boring by many younger people too.
b.) What is there possibly to suggest that soccer popularity in this country has reached its peak? It's been growing exponentially for two decades and each new team, even in the low levels, is attracting fans at an impressive level. FC Cincinnati, an expansion third division team in a city that nobody could have seen as a soccer hotbed, keeps topping 20,000 in attendance in what is effectively a minor league.

It is very hard for any North American sports league to compete with European soccer leagues on the global stage because of the time zone where they are. For example weekend EPL games usually start between 1pm and 5pm UK time which is morning in America and evening in Asia. You can easily watch those games live almost everywhere on this planet.

I do think part of the reason the MLS is at its most popular is on the west coast is because those daytime European games come on in the middle of the night on the west coast.



FWIW I think suggesting that the MLS won't even exist 20-30 years down the road is nothing short of asinine. The financial rules in it that are presently keeping it from taking off are the rules that have allowed it to grow roots and steadily grow in popularity. They've done everything that the NASL didn't do in the name of long-term health and the growth of the game so that it wouldn't just be teams based in New York and LA that have any hope of attracting talent. The NASL was a failure for a multitude of reasons, but the biggest was clearly that a couple teams were so dominant that the non-huge markets couldn't hope to compete, when you can't hope to compete you're going to have trouble building a fan base from scratch, and when you can't attract fans you either move or fold. You can make the joke that the MLS is expanding too fast if you want, but they've been careful about it. All-in-all there have been 3 failed teams in 2 decades of the MLS, two of which didn't really survive infancy in Florida and another that failed because of a racist ownership group that is being replaced by an expansion team in a couple years (Chivas USA -> LAFC). Compare 23 franchises in 20 years, 20 of which are still active, to the NASL which started out with 17 teams, sunk to 5 after a single season, eventually grew back to 24 despite numerous franchises folding and moving along the way, before falling to 9 teams just 5 years later before the league eventually died...and all of this happened within 17 seasons.

It is also worth noting that despite generally playing in massive NFL or college football stadiums, the NASL's best average attendance was 14,440 per game...which is lower than every single team in the MLS last year despite most teams playing in stadiums that only hold ~20k. The lowly Colorado Rapids had the worst attendance last season while playing in front of 87% capacity crowds.

MLS attendance is 8th in the world and is only about 800 fans per game away from being 5th.
 
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varsaku

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TV Report: EPL outdraws NHL in 2015-16

For the third consecutive year, NBC Sports Group set a record for its average viewership of the English Premier League. Across all networks, NBC Sports Group averaged 514,000 viewers per match window -- up 7 percent from 2014-15. The EPL outdrew the NHL, which averaged 503,000 viewers for 105 NHL regular-season games on NBC and NBCSN in 2015-16.

This is not MLS, but it is still interesting to see that a foreign soccer league is able to get more viewers at odd hours than NHL games. Considering the start times for most EPL games, these numbers are quiet impressive. If MLS can manage to convert some of these soccer fans into MLS fans, the league could really take off. But that is easier said than done.
 

Hoek

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May 12, 2003
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I'd say a number of those fans watching EPL go to live MLS games, but it's hard to get them to watch other MLS teams which is why their own TV ratings aren't too impressive.
 

Voight

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Feb 8, 2012
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Whatever you say, Grandpa. Baseball seems to do ok.

So, I can confess I'm not actually 2 years old (just act like it sometimes) but I see it in my kids. They and their friends are all into soccer (albeit mostly European), and these are not just immigrant kids. When my daughters school had a 'fan jersey day' she said after hockey, most kids wore soccer jerseys, and there there was a smattering of football,baseball and basketball. To them, football (as in CFL or NFL) is very boring because there's so much time with nothing happening, baseball is a bit better. I see soccer as pretty mainstream, they play it and they watch it. It's may not be in the next 10 years, but give it time and I totally see MLS reaching NHL status. The sports landscape in North America has been constantly changing over the last 150 years, so I don't see how anyone can believe it will suddenly remain status quo.

Yes but I'm willing to get most were of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd, Bayern Munich, Chelsea etc. People wear tons of soccer jerseys here too but 99% is of Foreign teams. Which just goes to show that while they like soccer, they prefer UEFA & Asia to MLS.

I sincerely hope that you are 2 years old.

I do not see it happening. Soccer is just too boring to attract NA masses over the long haul. I think it's already reached its peak.

It also doesn't have the grass-roots like baseball and football do. Sure its been around way longer, but its always been Europe's sport whereas America is synonymous with Football, baseball and basketball. Kids grow up dreaming to play for the Yankees or Cowboys, not the Rapids or Galaxy.
 

joelef

Registered User
Nov 22, 2011
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Yes but I'm willing to get most were of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd, Bayern Munich, Chelsea etc. People wear tons of soccer jerseys here too but 99% is of Foreign teams. Which just goes to show that while they like soccer, they prefer UEFA & Asia to MLS.



It also doesn't have the grass-roots like baseball and football do. Sure its been around way longer, but its always been Europe's sport whereas America is synonymous with Football, baseball and basketball. Kids grow up dreaming to play for the Yankees or Cowboys, not the Rapids or Galaxy.

Is that why there American kids in European academies?
 

Inkling

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Nov 27, 2006
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Yes but I'm willing to get most were of Real Madrid, Barcelona, Man Utd, Bayern Munich, Chelsea etc. People wear tons of soccer jerseys here too but 99% is of Foreign teams. Which just goes to show that while they like soccer, they prefer UEFA & Asia to MLS.

They absolutely were (my daughter was one of them) but when stars from Europe come over to MLS (or NASL) they get people interested in the local brand too if they weren't already. Look at Drogba in Montreal, probably only behind Price and Subban in popularity. As long as the league is smart in bringing over the stars (i.e. not like NASL v1.0) they can leverage it over time to get people interested in the local game.

We're talking long term here (why the question mentioned 'lifetime'). I've been into soccer my whole life and it's incredible how much it has grown since the 80's.
 

top_gun36

Hometown hero
Apr 5, 2004
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It'll be interesting to see how the Copa America plays here next month. Not that this necessarily measures club tournament potential, just that I think TV ratings will tell an interesting story one way or another (sales suck because tickets are too expensive). Even then, people here would rather see Inter Milan in a meaningless game than Saprissa (or probably even Fluminese or River Plate) in a qualifier.

It will be interesting with TV ratings with Copa America2016 happening the same time as EURO 2016
 

Finlandia WOAT

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May 23, 2010
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MLS has to consider going to a 'winter schedule' similar to the leagues in Europe.

I can see MLS passing the NHL in the US in the next 10 years and that saddens me but unless the NHL makes some rule changes to make the game more entertaining that will happen.

Here are ways for a Sports League to increase revenue:

I) Ticket/Gate Revenue (includes ticket price, concessions, parking, etc.)
II) Advertising Revenue (including TV deal, sponsorhips, at game advertising, etc.)
III) Lowering overhead/player costs

The problem is that the MLS as it is right now has essentially capped at I and II because of the quality of the product being offered. They can't increase # of games, they can't drastically raise ticket prices without killing the casual market outside of the "die hard" markets, I'm guessing food/concessions are already stupidly priced adequately enough. Same for advertising revenue.

The problem is, I and II are capped until MLS can drastically increase the quality of their product. If they can start fielding a high quality League, they can increase ticket prices, they can increase advertising across the board. But they can't do that without massively raising player costs.

And just looking at the numbers...the NHL has a revenue of 4 billion...the MLS 400 million. To surpass the NHL, the MLS would have to increase their revenue ten fold, and I see no way they can do this, barring a complete simultaneous collapse of the Premier League, La Liga and the German Elite League.

To answer the OP, no. The MLS will probably not become one of the largest leagues in the world.
 

Carolinas Identity*

I'm a bad troll...
Jun 18, 2011
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MLS popularity is skyrocketing imo. I wish//hope for Calgary to get a team, I'd buy season tickets in a heartbeat. I'm a Sounders FC fan, but I would buy Calgary tickets in a second.

If it stays on this track, give it 20 more years, and a few more clubs, I could see it being near the top.

Look at the viewing parties the USMNT drew during the last WC. I firmly believe that if the US somehow got one of either the Russian, or Qatari WC's if they do move, it would be the biggest sporting even in North American history.
 

Hoek

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Qatar getting 2022 is the most shortsighted blunder by a sports organization in history. USA 1994 was already the highest attended WC of all time and that was with hardly anyone here giving a crap beforehand. Imagine now. FIFA basically spurned a crapload of long term moolah for a little bribe for one year.
 

LOFIN

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Sep 16, 2011
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The MLS will never get on par with top European leagues, nor they should. They don't even need to. What they need to do, and what they in fact can do, is improve soccers popularity in the NA. I'm not a NA person, but I somehow have a feel that soccer has improved it's popularity in the recent years. If not elsewhere, but with the USMNT. I hate it how some people here post things like "they will never get the best players, and thus won't be the most popular". Outside NA, people seem to enjoy many sports even though they don't have the greatest players. The MLS already has great attendancies, eventhough their league is not on par with the top European ones.
 

Confucius

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I sincerely hope that you are 2 years old.

I do not see it happening. Soccer is just too boring to attract NA masses over the long haul. I think it's already reached its peak.

Soccer is boring but America's national sport is not? If North Americans can sit through 3 to 4 hr baseball games. A sub 2 hr soccer match has to be viewed as nonstop action
 

Hoek

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Knowing that a soccer game will take exactly 2 hours is definitely one of its advantages with the younger crowd.
 

kabidjan18

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Qatar getting 2022 is the most shortsighted blunder by a sports organization in history. USA 1994 was already the highest attended WC of all time and that was with hardly anyone here giving a crap beforehand. Imagine now. FIFA basically spurned a crapload of long term moolah for a little bribe for one year.
Qatar 2022 was a big big mistake. It was at least a missed chance to grow the game in America.

What most people don't understand about the immigrant population is that yeah some of them love soccer, most of them do, but more and more they're starting to like Football and Basketball too. Among a lot of the young generation of second generation immigrants to America it's hip to play basketball or football and not soccer. Someone also said that people are gravitating away from football due to it being boring, and someone is incredibly wrong.

Second, the myth of soccer expansion in the states. There is a myth that after this recent 2014 World Cup the US has gone soccer crazy and soccer is growing faster than after any previous World Cup and as a result the US will soon be a soccer country. This unprecedented growth will catapult the status of US Soccer and the MLS to beyond that status of other US sports. USA Soccer of course has embraced this idea and tried to market the fact that the US is suddenly soccer crazy. The reality is that soccer is growing, in part due to the recent World Cup and in part due to the concussion fiasco (which has turned on soccer itself). Soccer is not growing abnormally fast, it's merely growing. Moving to a winter schedule would be suicide because it would be attempting to compete with the NFL and NBA which would ensure that multi-sport fans would lose interest in the MLS. It's also been beaten over the head that the top MLS players are...to put it this way Kevin Doyle was meh in the Championship league before he accepted the most lucrative deal of his time in the MLS. The MLS will grow larger at a reasonably rate, but it's growth will be capped until the USMNT is a team of domestic based players kicking Germany and France butt regularly in the large and meaningful (World Cup) tournaments. For those who don't know, the US is struggling to qualify for the 2018 Moscow World Cup, not a good sign.

Ironically I googled "North America World Cup" and the next words suggested were "of hockey".
 

Zegras Zebra

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May 7, 2016
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Qatar 2022 was a big big mistake. It was at least a missed chance to grow the game in America.

What most people don't understand about the immigrant population is that yeah some of them love soccer, most of them do, but more and more they're starting to like Football and Basketball too. Among a lot of the young generation of second generation immigrants to America it's hip to play basketball or football and not soccer. Someone also said that people are gravitating away from football due to it being boring, and someone is incredibly wrong.

Second, the myth of soccer expansion in the states. There is a myth that after this recent 2014 World Cup the US has gone soccer crazy and soccer is growing faster than after any previous World Cup and as a result the US will soon be a soccer country. This unprecedented growth will catapult the status of US Soccer and the MLS to beyond that status of other US sports. USA Soccer of course has embraced this idea and tried to market the fact that the US is suddenly soccer crazy. The reality is that soccer is growing, in part due to the recent World Cup and in part due to the concussion fiasco (which has turned on soccer itself). Soccer is not growing abnormally fast, it's merely growing. Moving to a winter schedule would be suicide because it would be attempting to compete with the NFL and NBA which would ensure that multi-sport fans would lose interest in the MLS. It's also been beaten over the head that the top MLS players are...to put it this way Kevin Doyle was meh in the Championship league before he accepted the most lucrative deal of his time in the MLS. The MLS will grow larger at a reasonably rate, but it's growth will be capped until the USMNT is a team of domestic based players kicking Germany and France butt regularly in the large and meaningful (World Cup) tournaments. For those who don't know, the US is struggling to qualify for the 2018 Moscow World Cup, not a good sign.

Ironically I googled "North America World Cup" and the next words suggested were "of hockey".

I think you are on to something by mentioning the increased attention to concussions in football and hockey. It is beginning to get to the point where lots of parents think playing these sports is too dangerous for their children and it may eventually lead to a weaker talent pool in these sports, reducing the quality of play in future generations. As a result more of the kids who would have played these high contact sports will play soccer instead which will increase its talent pool for the MLS in future generations. Better American and Canadian national teams will only increase the popularity of soccer further in North American society.
 

Hoek

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Soccer has its own concussion issues though, and there's increased scrutiny about heading the ball as a repetitive injury, particularly for kids.
 

varsaku

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Feb 14, 2014
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I think you are on to something by mentioning the increased attention to concussions in football and hockey. It is beginning to get to the point where lots of parents think playing these sports is too dangerous for their children and it may eventually lead to a weaker talent pool in these sports, reducing the quality of play in future generations. As a result more of the kids who would have played these high contact sports will play soccer instead which will increase its talent pool for the MLS in future generations. Better American and Canadian national teams will only increase the popularity of soccer further in North American society.

One of my colleagues at work just had a kid and it was a boy. This guy is a huge football fan. I asked him if he will make his son play football and he said, "hello no." He like many parents today see the effects of repeated concussions and are afraid to put their kids in high contact sports. For a sport like football that can't survive without tackling, that talent pool is going to shift to other sports. Soccer being another cheap sport to get into and with the rising popularity, more will go into soccer.

Soccer has its own concussion issues though, and there's increased scrutiny about heading the ball as a repetitive injury, particularly for kids.

IIRC, I heard that some youth leagues have banded headers.
 

DoyleG

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It'll be interesting to see how the Copa America plays here next month. Not that this necessarily measures club tournament potential, just that I think TV ratings will tell an interesting story one way or another (sales suck because tickets are too expensive). Even then, people here would rather see Inter Milan in a meaningless game than Saprissa (or probably even Fluminese or River Plate) in a qualifier.

You would likely see more fans for Fluminese or River Plate in a Libertadores match given that those names do have a pull in knowledgeable soccer circles. Its harder to do that in the CONCACAF CL with, except for some Liga MX teams, aren't that well known.

Thing is, first, MLS has to get a team to win CONCACAF Champions League. This hasn't happened since the format changed, and only one team (2011 Real Salt Lake) was close.

Oh, not giving the Impact any credit?;)

Soccer has its own concussion issues though, and there's increased scrutiny about heading the ball as a repetitive injury, particularly for kids.

Add the mid-air collisions, clashes between players and goalies, etc...
 

kabidjan18

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One of my colleagues at work just had a kid and it was a boy. This guy is a huge football fan. I asked him if he will make his son play football and he said, "hello no." He like many parents today see the effects of repeated concussions and are afraid to put their kids in high contact sports. For a sport like football that can't survive without tackling, that talent pool is going to shift to other sports. Soccer being another cheap sport to get into and with the rising popularity, more will go into soccer.
I think this is slightly overblown for a couple reasons though. More than ever, football is becoming a sport that only the athletic elite can participate in. The athletic elite generally come from one community, and that community has shown no desire to move from football to soccer. Also, Football is by far the most marketable sport due the the high amount of commercial time. The NFL, NCAA and the companies that support them have an absurd amount of money which they are using to re-educate the public about the safety of football as a sport. Because of the toughness associated with football minorities are increasingly participating in it as well. Inevitably some of the richer echelons of society will withdraw from participation but most of the public can be educated to the other end. Evidence of that is the heavily marketed movie Concussion in 2015. The domestic box office was 34 million (less than box office busts like Pan and Hot Pursuit), off a 35 million+ dollar budget (much of which was marketing), evidence that the NFL can shut down interest in a topic. The initial impact is what helped soccer grow. People switching at about the time the news broke out, 2013-2014, but with some re-education people will forget, and the most athletic portion of the population devote themselves almost exclusively to football and basketball, football for the shorter ones and basketball for the tall freaks. Soccer being a cheap sport won't truly help growth in one of the richer countries in the world. Every slum has a football field and a football team (basketball court too), and if they are poor enough they won't have the money for a soccer pitch and program anyways. Some of football's talent will drain into basketball, but I don't see much trickling back to soccer because popularity in that demographic has really risen the least.

Soccer then had its own problems in 2014-2015 with the Qatar slavery allegations (that wording alone will raise hairs in America) on top of the Qatar World Cup decision, concussion problems and allegations, it's complicated. If anything I see the NBA benefiting long run, but in the short run at the time the concussion fiasco combined with the World Cup was the perfect interest spark to help grow soccer dramatically in america for a short while.
 

Ogopogo*

Guest
I hope for your sake you are referring to import players, and not immigrants themselves.

??????

When you bring in millions of soccer fans, you build the soccer fan base. Most born and raised Americans have other sports they prefer. Pretty simple.
 

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