Will the Leafs Limit Andersen’s Starts Next Season?

Hockey Crazy

Registered User
Dec 30, 2008
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I think we’re seeing more and more the effects that a long NHL season can have on a goaltender.

From March onwards, it seems that goalies who seemed to be unbeatable in Dec-Feb look much more average...

Vasilevsky
Rinne
Rask
Andersen
Jones

This may have to do with the number of games that these goalies are forced to start. Fleury meanwhile, looks to be in prime form following his midseason injury. IMO, we should give Sparks a chance to start 25-30 and limit Andersen to 55 games or so. Hopefully our sport science team can advise the coaching staff and take advantage of this trend...
 

ACC1224

Super Elite, Passing ALL Tests since 2002
Aug 19, 2002
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Workload will depend on the schedule.
 

Gary Nylund

Registered User
Oct 10, 2013
29,787
21,963
I think we’re seeing more and more the effects that a long NHL season can have on a goaltender.

From March onwards, it seems that goalies who seemed to be unbeatable in Dec-Feb look much more average...

Vasilevsky
Rinne
Rask
Andersen
Jones

This may have to do with the number of games that these goalies are forced to start. Fleury meanwhile, looks to be in prime form following his midseason injury. IMO, we should give Sparks a chance to start 25-30 and limit Andersen to 55 games or so. Hopefully our sport science team can advise the coaching staff and take advantage of this trend...

Yup, really hope they do this next year. Maybe it has nothing to do with it but maybe it does and why take the chance. Really don't understand why this wasn't done this season as 3rd place was pretty much a lock anyway so ...

Next year, they should really do this. Even if it costs us 1st place or whatever it's still worth it if it means better goaltending in the playoffs.
 

IPS

Registered User
Sep 28, 2017
15,462
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We had a very capable backup with a .934 SV% sitting on the bench while all of this happened too.

I didn't understand.
 
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Martin Skoula

Registered User
Oct 18, 2017
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Now that we know we're a contender and not a bubble team like last year, I wouldn't "limit" Andersen's starts, but I'd change the distribution of them. Let him take 2/3 or 3/4 starts in the early going and then ramp up after the deadline to get him into his rhythm going into the playoffs. Use the start of the season for rookie auditions and then start trimming the fat and adding pieces at the deadline if necessary.
 

Buds17

Registered User
Nov 29, 2015
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They'd have to have the confidence in the backup to assume that kind of workload. Scheduling is also definitely a factor, as Babcock tends to only go to the backup in back-to-back situations.
 

Jimmy Firecracker

Fire Sheldon.
Mar 30, 2010
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Mississauga
Depends on the standings next year. We had a unique situation this year by being so entrenched in third with virtually no chance of catching the second place team or falling to fourth. There were literally no benefits or consequences by playing/not playing Andersen, yet we rode him right to the end. For what? The team record?

Next year we might be in a tight spot for home ice advantage and we won’t be able to afford to rest Andersen. Had a golden opportunity to rest him (and others, specifically Hainsey) and we didn’t go for it.
 
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IBeL34f

Lilly-grin
Jun 3, 2010
8,226
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Don't we have a sports sciences department that should have lots of useful information required for making a decision like this?

I would say there are too many factors (schedule, apparent effectiveness/comfort, injuries, knowledge) that fans don't have enough access to for anyone to have a meaningful opinion about this in May, 2018. For all we know, now that Andersen has 2 full seasons under his belt with a starter's load, he'll thrive on extended use moving forward.

One could certainly argue that Andersen was overplayed this year, but what that means going forward is really anybody's guess - Personally, I'll have to wait until I see how he looks next season first.

If McElhinney or Sparks, or whoever is backing him up next year, look as good as McElhinney did this year, then I think it's safe to say we could certainly afford to limit Andersen's starts next year, but I remain undecided as to whether or not that means we should.
 

Morbo

The Annihilator
Jan 14, 2003
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Toronto
yeah I'd shave 10 starts off Andersen. He's not good enough that it makes sense to play him 65 times.
 

Hotel Mario

Registered User
Feb 4, 2013
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Thunder Bay
Instead of giving an inferior backup more starts, it makes more sense to reduce the workload of Andersen by not allowing 40+ shots on a routine basis.
 

The CyNick

Freedom of Speech!
Sep 17, 2009
11,364
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A starting goalie should be able to handle 2-3 starts per week in the regular season.

You talk to most goalies and they will indicate they prefer to stay in a rhythm over getting tons of rest.
 

Hockey Crazy

Registered User
Dec 30, 2008
2,942
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What the goalie wa
A starting goalie should be able to handle 2-3 starts per week in the regular season.

You talk to most goalies and they will indicate they prefer to stay in a rhythm over getting tons of rest.
What the goalie wants and what makes sense might be two different things. You’ll never see a player say they want to play less or admit they’re tired. I agree with the previous poster that said our spot sciences team should be all over it. If they don’t have enough of a voice, that’s something that I hope Dubas could fix.
 

Brolaf

Registered User
Apr 4, 2013
66
37
Woodbridge, ON
Intuitively more rest in the regular season should improve playoff performance (or at the very least reduce the risk of imjury) but it would be interesting to see if there's any evidence from a sports science perspective to back it up.

A few numbers for discussion:

Stanley Cup winning goalies since 2005, Average # of games started during regular season: 46.4, Median games started in regular season: 51
Stanley Cup finals goalies since 2005, Average # of games started during regular season: 49.7, Median games started in regular season: 54

Historically in the cap era the vast majority of Stanley Cup winners and finalists have had starting goaltenders start less than 60 games during the regular season.

Doesn't necessarily mean correlation = causation but its something to think about.
 
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MikeBabchuk

Mike Bobcat
May 24, 2013
1,359
12
Toronto
I think we’re seeing more and more the effects that a long NHL season can have on a goaltender.

From March onwards, it seems that goalies who seemed to be unbeatable in Dec-Feb look much more average...

Vasilevsky
Rinne
Rask
Andersen
Jones

This may have to do with the number of games that these goalies are forced to start. Fleury meanwhile, looks to be in prime form following his midseason injury. IMO, we should give Sparks a chance to start 25-30 and limit Andersen to 55 games or so. Hopefully our sport science team can advise the coaching staff and take advantage of this trend...

I do think that this is the approach that should be taken for next season. Then again, Andersen seems to play better when he plays a lot and gets on a roll. He definitely played more than needed down the stretch though, but he struggled, and maybe Babcock was trying to make sure he had his game together for the playoffs.

Keep in mind that McElhinney has another year on his contract, so presumably it will be him needing to play around 30 games unless he struggles.
 

HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
Jan 4, 2012
20,124
10,634
if garret sparks can play in the nhl like he can in the ahl yes the leafs should play andersen less

Your if was too small.
Love Sparks. The idea that he is in the same league as Andersen is unclear.
(note: he currently plays in a different league).
upload_2018-5-2_16-43-35.png


Only 24 though.

Is Sparks the likely backup next year ?

McElhinney, Curtis
upload_2018-5-2_16-45-36.png

Toronto Maple Leafs - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I guess Sparks will have to wait another year ?
McBackup did well for us this year.
 

HamiltonNHL

Parity era hockey is just puck luck + draft luck
Jan 4, 2012
20,124
10,634
Anyone know why there are 2 entries for Sparks above 2017-2018 ?
One for the playoffs ?
The other years dont seem to have playoffs in a separate line ?
 

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