Will the Great 8 score 895?

kladorf2005

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Apr 20, 2018
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Does anyone know what the era adjusted numbers would be? Everyone knows Gretzky is the GOAT, but some of his records are inflated by the era he played during.

I'm a Pens fan, and even I would admit that Ovi's career goal total is more impressive than Gretzky's. And if Ovi finishes around 850, is anyone really going to think that isn't better than 895 during the highest scoring era of modern hockey?
 
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Fantomas

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Aug 7, 2012
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Does anyone know what the era adjusted numbers would be? Everyone knows Gretzky is the GOAT, but some of his records are inflated by the era he played during.

I'm a Pens fan, and even I would admit that Ovi's career goal total is more impressive than Gretzky's. And if Ovi finishes around 850, is anyone really going to think that isn't better than 895 during the highest scoring era of modern hockey?

By hockey-reference's method, Ovechkin already has 740 career adjusted goals. Gretzky over his entire career has 758.

But the guy who blows them both away is Howe has has 925 career adjusted goals over 26 seasons, but not including the WHA years. Ovechkin will at least come close when it's all said and done.
 

Ace Card Bedard

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Feb 11, 2012
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Didn't Selanne score something like 100 goals across his age 35 and 36 seasons?

It happens differently for everyone; mother nature will eventually beat him, but he just might get 237 more goals before it does.

Put another way, if he scores at Selanne's mid-30s rate for the next three seasons, he needs around 100 goals between ages 37 and retirement. That's not too crazy.


I see Ovechkin as a modern day Bobby Hull.
Hull scored 50 at the age of 33 and then left for the WHA.
Had he stayed, he'd probably have around 800 NHL goals.

I see the same for Ovechkin. 800-820 without major seasons lost to injury/lockout.
Probably the greatest goal scorer ever considering the era in which he's playing. Only Bossy, Gretzky and Hull would have any argument in my opinion. Bure had he stayed healthy maybe.
 

RageQuit77

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Jan 5, 2016
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This whole thread beyond the OP is is just sad.

OVI is the only one that have both historic career trajectory, accumulated stats, longevity and health, and required skills to make it.

He is the Guy who has a chance, and it doesn't look too remote...

Why people argue against chances the potentially best of all times?
 
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bobc222

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Mar 10, 2017
987
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Pairing together
  • Gretzky scored 92 goals (in 1981-82)
  • Gretzky twice scored in the 70s (71 in 1982-83, 73 in 1984-85)
...opens eyes to see what exactly?
I think someone was confused when you said in the 70's twice thinking the 1970's? Other then that I can't see what they mean either and I agree with you.
Scoring in the 1970's is completely irrelevant given that goalies were virtually non-existent cardboard cutouts. Its basically a different sport at that point. The implication being that yes Gretzky scored 92 goals...but it was in the 1970's, not in today's NHL which is what Ovechkin has done. Look into era adjusting and you'll see that Ovechkin's best season actually adjusts to 93 goals.
 

txpd

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Jan 25, 2003
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This whole thread beyond the OP is is just sad.

OVI is the only one that have both historic career trajectory, accumulated stats, longevity and health, and required skills to make it.

He is the Guy who has a chance, and it doesn't look too remote...

Why people argue against chances the potentially best of all times?

Oh, I think he can do it but to say that its more likely that he doesn't isn't really a wild argument. He needs to get thru this season without showing any significant drop off. If he scores 45+, look out.

2 questions.
1. What does Ov's total look like has he not lost a seasona and a half to work stoppage?
2. What does Gretzky's number look like had he lost 1.5 prime seasons to work stoppage?
 

82Ninety42011

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Jul 2, 2011
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Scoring in the 1970's is completely irrelevant given that goalies were virtually non-existent cardboard cutouts. Its basically a different sport at that point. The implication being that yes Gretzky scored 92 goals...but it was in the 1970's, not in today's NHL which is what Ovechkin has done. Look into era adjusting and you'll see that Ovechkin's best season actually adjusts to 93 goals.
99's rookie year was 79-80 and goal scoring was actually down in the 70's and up in the 80's so not sure what your getting at?
 

bobc222

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Mar 10, 2017
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99's rookie year was 79-80 and goal scoring was actually down in the 70's and up in the 80's so not sure what your getting at?
It doesn't matter though is the point. GPG averages in the 80's were nearly a whole goal higher than today.
 

Nsjohnson

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Jun 22, 2012
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I want to believe

but

he is one injury away from not only having a short season, but then subsequently having an even more uphill battle, and the possibility of a career limiting injury. All it takes is one. Age 34. May not stop his career but it could decrease his effectiveness.

but

I want to believe
 
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Midnight Judges

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Does anyone know what the era adjusted numbers would be? Everyone knows Gretzky is the GOAT, but some of his records are inflated by the era he played during.

I'm a Pens fan, and even I would admit that Ovi's career goal total is more impressive than Gretzky's. And if Ovi finishes around 850, is anyone really going to think that isn't better than 895 during the highest scoring era of modern hockey?

The simple answer is yes. Lots of hockey fans and media personalities just act like every player is inferior these days, and they make no adjustments and add no context.

It's pretty rampant actually. Otherwise we'd all be talking about adjusted stats and adjusted stats records (which are more indicative than raw totals across eras).
 

82Ninety42011

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Jul 2, 2011
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It doesn't matter though is the point. GPG averages in the 80's were nearly a whole goal higher than today.
Yes they were just remember Gretzky once he hurt his back stopped shooting so much in his 20's yet still produced an absurd amount. He also has more then twice the amount of assists as goals remember. Ovie is the epitome of consistency scoring goals I'll agree but that's all he does and he's only once hit 60 (65) something Gretzky did 5 times including 92,71,87 and 73 in a row. All the while breaking 100 assists per year. Ovie is a great player and if he continues to play at current level til 40 has a shot at goal title but I wouldn't bet on it happening. However I wouldn't be shocked either if he did do it. Scoring was higher in 80's though and who knows what Ovie could have done then but he didn't and evryone can speculate but facts are facts. I'm taking 99 anyday but wouldn't complain if Ovie was on my team. Cheers
 

Sam Spade

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May 4, 2009
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My two favorite players of all time Wayne Gretzky, I worshiped him as a child/teenager, and Alex Ovechkin, who my son loves.

How lucky am I?

I really hope they finish one/two all time.
 

Hockey Outsider

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Jan 16, 2005
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Does anyone know what the era adjusted numbers would be? Everyone knows Gretzky is the GOAT, but some of his records are inflated by the era he played during.

I'm a Pens fan, and even I would admit that Ovi's career goal total is more impressive than Gretzky's. And if Ovi finishes around 850, is anyone really going to think that isn't better than 895 during the highest scoring era of modern hockey?

Here's career goals based on the VsX method (used on the History board):

RankPlayerAdj Goals
1Gordie Howe1,181
2Maurice Richard863
3Bobby Hull829
4Jaromir Jagr821
5Wayne Gretzky784
6Phil Esposito775
7Alex Ovechkin739
8Brett Hull733
9Jean Beliveau726
10Teemu Selanne718
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

These are the only 10 adjusted 700+ goal scorers in NHL history (sorry Mike Gartner - you weren't close). Ovechkin is already in 7th place and could conceivably pass Gretzky for 5th place as early as next year.

But nobody is close to Gordie Howe in (adjusted) career goals. Hockey-reference.com's adjusted goals also has Howe in first place, but this method has him out front by an even wider margin. What really hurts Howe when it come to unadjusted statistics is 1) his peak come during a low-scoring era, even lower scoring than today or the so-called Dead Puck Era and 2) the schedule was only 70 games for most of his career, depriving him of the chance to play (and score in) a couple of hundred extra matches.

Link to the methodology - Reference - VsX comprehensive summary (1927 to 2019)
 

JackSlater

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Apr 27, 2010
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I think that he probably will as he has a definite number to chase down and once he is somewhat close there will be a push from media/fans/teammates for him to pursue it. It's hard to see Ovechkin getting to 865 goals and just retiring, for example. A lot could go wrong though.
 
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Soundgarden

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Jul 22, 2008
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I think you gravely underestimate how quickly the drop off can be from their 30s to their 40s no matter how good of a shape they are in.

Ovechkin isn't an average NHLer though, he's one of the best to have played the game. I think with the way the game is played now and is shaping up to be played in the future helps him. We've seen a lot more players play past their late 30's in the last decade plus, I don't see how Ovechkin is any different than some of the greats to play beyond 40. If he's close to reaching what's thought of as an unbreakable record he'll likely stick around.

With a lockout likely and with his body being more susceptible to injury as he ages, Ovechkin will easily miss more games in the future and his gpg will drop.
I just don't see it. Tank or not, mother nature always wins. It happens to everyone.

You act as if a lockout is inevitable, we just don't know that yet. Hell, maybe a lockout would help him.
He may miss more games due to injury than he has in his entire career, but this isn't an Ales Hemsky. we're talking about. Mother nature might slow him down but I think he's going to be closer to hitting 50 goals at 36 than he is to retiring.

Because he is 34 and will have to keep up his current pace up until close to 40 and that's not going happen that's not realistic and I think you know that

He got 51 this year. Just because he's 34 doesn't mean his career is anywhere close to being over. If he played until 40 he'd need to average 40. If he pots another 50 goal season at any point in his career he's only 187 away and would need to average 31 goals if he played to 41. That's a lot more realistic than you are giving him credit for.
 
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Hockey4Lyfe

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Feb 26, 2018
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Yes they were just remember Gretzky once he hurt his back stopped shooting so much in his 20's yet still produced an absurd amount. He also has more then twice the amount of assists as goals remember. Ovie is the epitome of consistency scoring goals I'll agree but that's all he does and he's only once hit 60 (65) something Gretzky did 5 times including 92,71,87 and 73 in a row. All the while breaking 100 assists per year. Ovie is a great player and if he continues to play at current level til 40 has a shot at goal title but I wouldn't bet on it happening. However I wouldn't be shocked either if he did do it. Scoring was higher in 80's though and who knows what Ovie could have done then but he didn't and evryone can speculate but facts are facts. I'm taking 99 anyday but wouldn't complain if Ovie was on my team. Cheers

There’s absolutely no one in this thread that is saying they’d take Ovechkin over Gretzky.

And if they are I missed it and it’s just pure homerism.
 

Midnight Judges

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Ovie is the epitome of consistency scoring goals I'll agree but that's all he does...

Ovechkin is 11th in assists since the lockout and has virtually the same career assists per game as John Taveras, and higher than Patrice Bergeron.

Ovechkin is a great passer. I can post video evidence if you aren't convinced.

Nevermind the physical aspects of his game.
 
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Midnight Judges

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Here's career goals based on the VsX method (used on the History board):

RankPlayerAdj Goals
1Gordie Howe1,181
2Maurice Richard863
3Bobby Hull829
4Jaromir Jagr821
5Wayne Gretzky784
6Phil Esposito775
7Alex Ovechkin739
8Brett Hull733
9Jean Beliveau726
10Teemu Selanne718
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
These are the only 10 adjusted 700+ goal scorers in NHL history (sorry Mike Gartner - you weren't close). Ovechkin is already in 7th place and could conceivably pass Gretzky for 5th place as early as next year.

But nobody is close to Gordie Howe in (adjusted) career goals. Hockey-reference.com's adjusted goals also has Howe in first place, but this method has him out front by an even wider margin. What really hurts Howe when it come to unadjusted statistics is 1) his peak come during a low-scoring era, even lower scoring than today or the so-called Dead Puck Era and 2) the schedule was only 70 games for most of his career, depriving him of the chance to play (and score in) a couple of hundred extra matches.

Link to the methodology - Reference - VsX comprehensive summary (1927 to 2019)

Hockey reference adjusts for the 70 game seasons vs today's 82. They simply multiply Howe's totals by 1.17. They also adjust specifically for the scoring rates of the era, so neither the two factors you mentioned hurt Howe unless there is some other factor they didn't take into account.

Here is their explanation:

Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

Their adjusted goal total for Howe is 925 vs 740 for Ovechkin.

I am thinking maybe you are counting WHA goals - a league where a 45 year old Howe was MVP.
 

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