Will the Great 8 score 895?

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  1. kladorf2005

    kladorf2005 Registered User

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    Does anyone know what the era adjusted numbers would be? Everyone knows Gretzky is the GOAT, but some of his records are inflated by the era he played during.

    I'm a Pens fan, and even I would admit that Ovi's career goal total is more impressive than Gretzky's. And if Ovi finishes around 850, is anyone really going to think that isn't better than 895 during the highest scoring era of modern hockey?
     
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  2. Fantomas

    Fantomas Registered User

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    By hockey-reference's method, Ovechkin already has 740 career adjusted goals. Gretzky over his entire career has 758.

    But the guy who blows them both away is Howe has has 925 career adjusted goals over 26 seasons, but not including the WHA years. Ovechkin will at least come close when it's all said and done.
     
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  3. Penosity

    Penosity Back in Black, Red, and White

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    I see Ovechkin as a modern day Bobby Hull.
    Hull scored 50 at the age of 33 and then left for the WHA.
    Had he stayed, he'd probably have around 800 NHL goals.

    I see the same for Ovechkin. 800-820 without major seasons lost to injury/lockout.
    Probably the greatest goal scorer ever considering the era in which he's playing. Only Bossy, Gretzky and Hull would have any argument in my opinion. Bure had he stayed healthy maybe.
     
  4. Se829ne

    Se829ne Registered User

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    This whole thread beyond the OP is is just sad.

    OVI is the only one that have both historic career trajectory, accumulated stats, longevity and health, and required skills to make it.

    He is the Guy who has a chance, and it doesn't look too remote...

    Why people argue against chances the potentially best of all times?
     
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  5. bobconbatman

    bobconbatman Registered User

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    Scoring in the 1970's is completely irrelevant given that goalies were virtually non-existent cardboard cutouts. Its basically a different sport at that point. The implication being that yes Gretzky scored 92 goals...but it was in the 1970's, not in today's NHL which is what Ovechkin has done. Look into era adjusting and you'll see that Ovechkin's best season actually adjusts to 93 goals.
     
  6. txpd

    txpd Registered User

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    Oh, I think he can do it but to say that its more likely that he doesn't isn't really a wild argument. He needs to get thru this season without showing any significant drop off. If he scores 45+, look out.

    2 questions.
    1. What does Ov's total look like has he not lost a seasona and a half to work stoppage?
    2. What does Gretzky's number look like had he lost 1.5 prime seasons to work stoppage?
     
  7. SedintoHorvat

    SedintoHorvat Registered User

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    99's rookie year was 79-80 and goal scoring was actually down in the 70's and up in the 80's so not sure what your getting at?
     
  8. bobconbatman

    bobconbatman Registered User

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    It doesn't matter though is the point. GPG averages in the 80's were nearly a whole goal higher than today.
     
  9. Nsjohnson

    Nsjohnson Registered User

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    I want to believe

    but

    he is one injury away from not only having a short season, but then subsequently having an even more uphill battle, and the possibility of a career limiting injury. All it takes is one. Age 34. May not stop his career but it could decrease his effectiveness.

    but

    I want to believe
     
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  10. Midnight Judges

    Midnight Judges Registered User Sponsor

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    The simple answer is yes. Lots of hockey fans and media personalities just act like every player is inferior these days, and they make no adjustments and add no context.

    It's pretty rampant actually. Otherwise we'd all be talking about adjusted stats and adjusted stats records (which are more indicative than raw totals across eras).
     
  11. Dialamo

    Dialamo Nu Joyzee Dovals

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    Ovie will get to 891 goals, then will score an Ovechtrick to break Gretzky's record and get to 900 goals in the same game. You heard it here first.
     
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  12. SedintoHorvat

    SedintoHorvat Registered User

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    Yes they were just remember Gretzky once he hurt his back stopped shooting so much in his 20's yet still produced an absurd amount. He also has more then twice the amount of assists as goals remember. Ovie is the epitome of consistency scoring goals I'll agree but that's all he does and he's only once hit 60 (65) something Gretzky did 5 times including 92,71,87 and 73 in a row. All the while breaking 100 assists per year. Ovie is a great player and if he continues to play at current level til 40 has a shot at goal title but I wouldn't bet on it happening. However I wouldn't be shocked either if he did do it. Scoring was higher in 80's though and who knows what Ovie could have done then but he didn't and evryone can speculate but facts are facts. I'm taking 99 anyday but wouldn't complain if Ovie was on my team. Cheers
     
  13. Sam Spade

    Sam Spade Moderator

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    My two favorite players of all time Wayne Gretzky, I worshiped him as a child/teenager, and Alex Ovechkin, who my son loves.

    How lucky am I?

    I really hope they finish one/two all time.
     
  14. Hockey Outsider

    Hockey Outsider Registered User

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    Here's career goals based on the VsX method (used on the History board):

    RankPlayerAdj Goals
    1Gordie Howe1,181
    2Maurice Richard863
    3Bobby Hull829
    4Jaromir Jagr821
    5Wayne Gretzky784
    6Phil Esposito775
    7Alex Ovechkin739
    8Brett Hull733
    9Jean Beliveau726
    10Teemu Selanne718

    These are the only 10 adjusted 700+ goal scorers in NHL history (sorry Mike Gartner - you weren't close). Ovechkin is already in 7th place and could conceivably pass Gretzky for 5th place as early as next year.

    But nobody is close to Gordie Howe in (adjusted) career goals. Hockey-reference.com's adjusted goals also has Howe in first place, but this method has him out front by an even wider margin. What really hurts Howe when it come to unadjusted statistics is 1) his peak come during a low-scoring era, even lower scoring than today or the so-called Dead Puck Era and 2) the schedule was only 70 games for most of his career, depriving him of the chance to play (and score in) a couple of hundred extra matches.

    Link to the methodology - Reference - VsX comprehensive summary (1927 to 2019)
     
  15. Iapyi

    Iapyi Registered User

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    Shouldn't be a surprise to find people on a hockey forum that actually know hockey.
     
  16. JackSlater

    JackSlater Registered User

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    I think that he probably will as he has a definite number to chase down and once he is somewhat close there will be a push from media/fans/teammates for him to pursue it. It's hard to see Ovechkin getting to 865 goals and just retiring, for example. A lot could go wrong though.
     
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  17. ZeroPucksGiven

    ZeroPucksGiven Registered User

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    Ovi has 46 Empty Net goals, which obviously don't count as much as regular goals so you have to adjust for those

    /s
     
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  18. Soundgarden

    Soundgarden Registered User

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    Ovechkin isn't an average NHLer though, he's one of the best to have played the game. I think with the way the game is played now and is shaping up to be played in the future helps him. We've seen a lot more players play past their late 30's in the last decade plus, I don't see how Ovechkin is any different than some of the greats to play beyond 40. If he's close to reaching what's thought of as an unbreakable record he'll likely stick around.

    You act as if a lockout is inevitable, we just don't know that yet. Hell, maybe a lockout would help him.
    He may miss more games due to injury than he has in his entire career, but this isn't an Ales Hemsky. we're talking about. Mother nature might slow him down but I think he's going to be closer to hitting 50 goals at 36 than he is to retiring.

    He got 51 this year. Just because he's 34 doesn't mean his career is anywhere close to being over. If he played until 40 he'd need to average 40. If he pots another 50 goal season at any point in his career he's only 187 away and would need to average 31 goals if he played to 41. That's a lot more realistic than you are giving him credit for.
     
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  19. SovietWings

    SovietWings Registered User

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    Yeah,good for Ovexhkin..but how many years would it take him to break Gretzky's assist record?:naughty:
     
  20. alphabetical

    alphabetical Registered User

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    gretzky has more, so adjust in ovechkins favor?
     
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  21. Master P

    Master P Infraction Level 99

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    No, especially if there is another lock out.
     
  22. Hockey4Lyfe

    Hockey4Lyfe Registered User

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    There’s absolutely no one in this thread that is saying they’d take Ovechkin over Gretzky.

    And if they are I missed it and it’s just pure homerism.
     
  23. SedintoHorvat

    SedintoHorvat Registered User

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    Maybe I misunderstood something sorry my bad.
     
  24. Midnight Judges

    Midnight Judges Registered User Sponsor

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    Ovechkin is 11th in assists since the lockout and has virtually the same career assists per game as John Taveras, and higher than Patrice Bergeron.

    Ovechkin is a great passer. I can post video evidence if you aren't convinced.

    Nevermind the physical aspects of his game.
     
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2019
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  25. Midnight Judges

    Midnight Judges Registered User Sponsor

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    Hockey reference adjusts for the 70 game seasons vs today's 82. They simply multiply Howe's totals by 1.17. They also adjust specifically for the scoring rates of the era, so neither the two factors you mentioned hurt Howe unless there is some other factor they didn't take into account.

    Here is their explanation:

    Adjusted Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

    Their adjusted goal total for Howe is 925 vs 740 for Ovechkin.

    I am thinking maybe you are counting WHA goals - a league where a 45 year old Howe was MVP.
     

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