Will the Great 8 score 895?

[Nate070]

I hope not

 

[abo9]

I just want him to do it so there's gonna be absolutely no debate about him being the best goal scorer of all times.

 

[BM14]

I think his body will fail him.

 

[SML2]

Meh. Bure was better. If there was no two line pass rule and the rules were called like today, that guy could have scored 100 in a season without a doubt.

 

[CapsJunkie]

we are watching history. he will retire with over 1000 goals

 

[Varan]

Who, exactly, are you referring to as "they" here?

people who try to diminish his greatness either by insults, or by giving sly, backhanded compliments. here the poster was saying how OV could still reach the mark, but used the "he only stands in one spot" card

 

[alphabetical]

I hope not

Why do you hope not?

 

[Bear of Bad News]

people who try to diminish his greatness either by insults, or by giving sly, backhanded compliments. here the poster was saying how OV could still reach the mark, but used the "he only stands in one spot" card

Yes, but you also said it's because "they" can't stop it. Are you saying that these are players making these comments?

 

[member 300185]

Nope. Every year, especially based on his line mates also, he gets older. The body really starts to show a hockey players age at 35. Just 2 30 goal seasons back to back, you have to factor in that is 2 more years added to his age.

He's been looking chunkier as the years go by. And, now he is coming to camp out of shape. Then he gets to game shape after a few months and starts lighting it up.

And to be fair, Gretzky did it in 1487 games. Ovechkin would need to score 237 in 403 games and each year that ticks by ages OVI.
But Gretzky really slowed down in his last 4 seasons only scoring 65 total.

Gretzky also scored in 92 and also scored 87 once and twice scored in the 70's. If you want to be considered better than Gretzky, then you have to score 93 in a season. No one will ever do that again.

Also, goaltending plays a huge part and there were many teams in the East upgrade their goaltending and many teams upgraded their defence. For his prime years he had terrible teams in Toronto, New Jersey, Buffalo, Carolina and a few others to pick apart.

I don't think he will even beat Howe. I think Ovi will finish with about 780 goals. Still pretty good, but closer to Hull than Gretzky.

If anyone could have beat Gretzky it would have been Hull. Hull scored 741 in only 1269 games. Had he played another 220 games, he likely would have scored another 140 goals leaving him with 881. Had that happened you can bet Hull would have played long enough to beat the record.

But that's only regular season goals. Gretzky also scored 122 to Ovi's 65.

Nope, sorry Ovi lovers, but I think he will be the 3rd or 4th best goal scorer of all time. And even though Howe had more goals than Hull, Hull shooting percentage was off the charts. Ovi Certainly not the best and not better than Hull, but possibly better than Howe.

Only time will tell.

 

[Gurglesons]

Nope. Every year, especially based on his line mates also, he gets older. The body really starts to show a hockey players age at 35. Just 2 30 goal seasons back to back, you have to factor in that is 2 more years added to his age.

He's been looking chunkier as the years go by. And, now he is coming to camp out of shape. Then he gets to game shape after a few months and starts lighting it up.

And to be fair, Gretzky did it in 1487 games. Ovechkin would need to score 237 in 403 games and each year that ticks by ages OVI.
But Gretzky really slowed down in his last 4 seasons only scoring 65 total.

Gretzky also scored in 92 and also scored 87 once and twice scored in the 70's. If you want to be considered better than Gretzky, then you have to score 93 in a season. No one will ever do that again.

Also, goaltending plays a huge part and there were many teams in the East upgrade their goaltending and many teams upgraded their defence. For his prime years he had terrible teams in Toronto, New Jersey, Buffalo, Carolina and a few others to pick apart.

I don't think he will even beat Howe. I think Ovi will finish with about 780 goals. Still pretty good, but closer to Hull than Gretzky.

If anyone could have beat Gretzky it would have been Hull. Hull scored 741 in only 1269 games. Had he played another 220 games, he likely would have scored another 140 goals leaving him with 881. Had that happened you can bet Hull would have played long enough to beat the record.

But that's only regular season goals. Gretzky also scored 122 to Ovi's 65.

Nope, sorry Ovi lovers, but I think he will be the 3rd or 4th best goal scorer of all time. And even though Howe had more goals than Hull, Hull shooting percentage was off the charts. Ovi Certainly not the best and not better than Hull, but possibly better than Howe.

Only time will tell.

Hum. People like you really make me dislike hockey fans.

 

[Iapyi]

Depends on how long he wants to keep playing.

On one hand, he could pull a Jagr and go to the KHL.

On the other, he could pull a Jagr and play until he's 45. Even if he's useless everywhere else, he can still slap in PP goals from his office.

So essentially if he continues to play exactly as he has his entire career.

 

[Varan]

Yes, but you also said it's because "they" can't stop it. Are you saying that these are players making these comments?

oh you were referring to that as well? there I meant the league collectively hasn't found a way to legitimately stop that one-timer, because of that, OV continues to shoot from there. players aren't making these comments. it's because no one in the league can stop it, it allows OV to continue, and because he scores a lot from there, it paints the fake picture that all he does is stand in one spot

 

[tenken00]

Damn. I cant believe that even at this point of his career, people really really really dislike Ovechkin.

 

[ottawa]

I don't agree with the 4% but I can respect the effort you put in OP.

I'd give him closer to 17-21% chances

 

[Sensinitis]

Nope. Every year, especially based on his line mates also, he gets older. The body really starts to show a hockey players age at 35. Just 2 30 goal seasons back to back, you have to factor in that is 2 more years added to his age.

He's been looking chunkier as the years go by. And, now he is coming to camp out of shape. Then he gets to game shape after a few months and starts lighting it up.

And to be fair, Gretzky did it in 1487 games. Ovechkin would need to score 237 in 403 games and each year that ticks by ages OVI.
But Gretzky really slowed down in his last 4 seasons only scoring 65 total.

Gretzky also scored in 92 and also scored 87 once and twice scored in the 70's. If you want to be considered better than Gretzky, then you have to score 93 in a season. No one will ever do that again.

Also, goaltending plays a huge part and there were many teams in the East upgrade their goaltending and many teams upgraded their defence. For his prime years he had terrible teams in Toronto, New Jersey, Buffalo, Carolina and a few others to pick apart.

I don't think he will even beat Howe. I think Ovi will finish with about 780 goals. Still pretty good, but closer to Hull than Gretzky.

If anyone could have beat Gretzky it would have been Hull. Hull scored 741 in only 1269 games. Had he played another 220 games, he likely would have scored another 140 goals leaving him with 881. Had that happened you can bet Hull would have played long enough to beat the record.

But that's only regular season goals. Gretzky also scored 122 to Ovi's 65.

Nope, sorry Ovi lovers, but I think he will be the 3rd or 4th best goal scorer of all time. And even though Howe had more goals than Hull, Hull shooting percentage was off the charts. Ovi Certainly not the best and not better than Hull, but possibly better than Howe.

Only time will tell.

There is so much wrong with this post, I dont know where to begin...

Probably with “Ovie has to score 93 goals to be a better goal-scorer than Gretzky”. Yeah, that’s probably it.

 

[Devil Dancer]

If Backstrom and Carlson remain a threat and healthy yes. Most of Ovie's goals come on the powerplay because those 2 are such a threat which allows Ovie to float into his office pretty much scot free. Rarely does Ovie drive the offense and score on his own like his early days. He can either be a 30 goal scorer or a 50 goal scorer, really depends on who is on the ice with him.

I'm late to this thread, but this post is total bullshit. About 30% of Ovie's goals come from his office. He scores goals in a variety of ways from a variety of spots. Someone did an analysis last year and that's what he/she came up with.

 

[Viggo Mortensen]

The closer he gets, the longer he'll stay in the NHL to try and beat it. It may not be with the Caps if they absolutely refuse to give him a contract, but if that's his goal, he'll sign 1-y deals year after year at league minimum until he gets it. I know I would.

 

[RageQuit77]

I don't agree with the 4% but I can respect the effort you put in OP.

I'd give him closer to 17-21% chances

If following assumptions of OP then such 15-17% probability is absolutely too high, but if taking Ovi's expected career still left for him, I think 17-21% chance to make it is at lower limits of the probability. He is Ovechkin, his core arsenal and ways of scoring are such they doesn't likely take hit by ageing in same pace than league average for ageing goal scorers.

Barring injuries, lockouts, and loss of general desire to play hockey, I take it very probable he will just continue score goals and make it. It is not anyway impossible to think that 43-44 yo Ovi will still score 25-35 goals per season when playing 2nd/3rd line minutes and PP2 TOI.

Then, when Ovi comes close for breaking Gretzky's record, he will get probably a lot more scoring chances... and not necessarily only by his own team mates.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

No that's ridiculous

 

[MarkusNaslund19]

I think he falls just short. He's 34 this year and needs 237 goals to get 895. I think he plays until he's 38 and will get 170-200 goals moe.

I can't see OV retiring 65 or less goals from the record

 

[eco's bones]

I think there's the possibility but whether he does it as a Cap is another question. If he continues more or less at the same pace two years from now I could see him for instance asking for an 8 year deal for say $10 mil per and that's a rabbit hole that maybe the Caps won't want to go down. Just because he's older doesn't mean he'll take less years or less money.

 

[Beville]

He’s 34 at the start of the season, on the basis he carries on until he’s 40 (6 seasons) he “only” needs 40 per year;

I wouldn’t say it’s impossible at all... slim chance he makes it I reckon.

 

[member 300185]

Hum. People like you really make me dislike hockey fans.

People like you make me realize that there are fans out there that don't have a clue about hockey...like you.

 

[Sam Spade]

Ovechkin even strength goals:
2019 - 3rd
2018 - 2nd
2016 - 1st
2015 - 5th
2014 - 5th
2013 - 9th
2012 - 8th
2011 - 11th
2010 - 1st
2009 - 1st
2008 - 1st
2007 - 2nd
2006 - 4th

Let me do some quick math here, so 14 year career and has finished lower than 5th in even strength goals exactly FOUR times.

Confirmed PP specialist.

 

[JasonRoseEh]

You mean the playoffs against a lower seeded team with 2 career back up goalies that some how looked elite against the great 8, Mr. 895. Why yes, I did watch that.

Imagine being this much of a hater? Carolina played their absolute best and they did go to the conference finals. He had 9 points in 7 games, was physically dominant and was the ONLY player on his team that was dangerous at all times. The bias in your posts is just oozing and it's laughably incorrect.