i want to believe
That's just the lazy argument people throw at OV nowadays since he has perfected the One-T on the PP. They can't stop it, so he continues to do it. Unfortunately, it is such a big deal because that is the best weapon on the WSH PP, the primary one, so it is analyzed and critiqued to no end. Since people can't stop it, they use it against OV with no context whatsoever
Who, exactly, are you referring to as "they" here?
My brain says he will come up short but my heart wants him to crack 900 before he is done.
It's a good question, but I won't get to it tonight. Yes, I can run the same model for 6, 7, and 8 years, but we're talking about years 40, 41, 42, and I'd like to code some sort of a sensible drop off. I can do a piecewise linear fit (higher order polynomial doesn't work, already tried) but I have to rewrite the code a little bit.
Bonus fact for you: I ran this model for 1 million trials (they're quite cheap to compute) and Ovechkin never breaks the single season goal scoring record. Closest he came is 89 lol.
There's multiple players in NHL history that have scored 237 goals in NHL after they turned 34. So it won't require anything that special for Ovechkin to get to 895 career goals. The real question is will he break 1000 goals?
Nope. Probably another lockout looming and I just don't think he will have the gas in the tank to get there. Gretzky didn't play physical like Ovi, so his body is much more likely to break down. On top of that the way he scores his goals, Gretz never put torque on his shot like Ovechkin does either.
If anyone could do it, it's Ovechkin. He was born to score goals, and he's driven to be the best at it. If he averages even 40 for the next five seasons, he'll be close enough to not stop playing until he gets it. Even if he doesn't, considering the era in which he's played, no one can deny he's the greatest goal scorer ever.
Here is a list of best goal totals after being 34:
299 - Gordie Howe
275 - John Bucyk
232 - Teemu Selanne (while missing 1.5 seasons due to lockouts)
216 - Mark Messier
196 - Jean Ratelle
187 - Brett Hull (achieved in dead puck era)
182 - Daniel Alfredsson
175 - Jaromir Jagr (while missing 3 seasons in KHL)
I say he does it. I’ve been saying for a while he’s got a shot. The guy is a tank, he’s virtually indestructible. I say if he wants the record, and I think he does, he will get it.
If he wants to, yes.
A big reason is I think if hes within 50 he will find a way to linger around on PPs for 2-3 more seasons until he gets it.
Ovie can play into his 40s if he wants to.
I think he will. He loves hockey and is built like a brick house.
Thanks for the list.
I'd say his chances are better than a lot of folks seem to think. He's a guy who can play past 40 and if that's the case and he's close he'll play until he gets it.
He'll need to average 47 goals if he retires in five years, 40 in six and 34 in seven. In six seasons he'll be forty, he's definitely has a realistic shot at making it.
Yes. He will.
You're a year off. It's 47.4 if he retires after 5 more seasons.
Depends on what happens with the league, officiating and equipment but sure it's possible.
You're right. Edited my post above.
Unless he's injured, he's not going to retire at age 38 with 850 goals.
Yeah, that would be the ''on pace for'' solution to the problem. He can absolutely get there scoring 48 per season for the next 5 seasons.
Am I the only one who did not realize what kind of incredible durability that Ovechkin has demonstrated throughout his career? He has missed 30 games in his entire career. 7 of them were due to suspension.
And a few more were to go to his grandfather's funeral. Another one was because he overslept the morning skate and Barry benched him.
He has been injured though, it's just that he plays through it.
No. Hoping he gets to 802 for real.
Yep. That was my first thought. Now that you have it set up, just show us the third plot for six, seven, and eight years. Alternatively, don't give us the plot, and just tell us the probabilities.
Separate names with a comma.