Will the Buffalo Sabres score more then 201 goals?

Will the Sabres score more then 201 goals?


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    72

La Cosa Nostra

Caporegime
Jun 25, 2009
14,073
2,335
There is a lot of excitement around the 2018-2019 Buffalo Sabres, along with some pessimism. Some are excited that are new additions will drastically improve our league worst offense while others think the removal of our all-around 2 way 60 point C will lead to catastrophe. The last 3 seasons, which is the entirety of Eichel and RoRs career here, the Sabres literally scored nearly identical amount of goals all 3 seasons. The most they had scored was 201 goals (twice) and 199 goals (this previous season)

17-18- 199 GF 31/31
16-17 201 GF 26/30
15-16 201 GF 26/30

I won't even mention the previous 2 years, where the team barely could score 2 goals a game. So brass tacks, the Buffalo Sabres have had a bottom 5 offense each of the last 3 seasons. They consistently averaged around ~2.44 GPG. That is simply not good enough. Yes, a poor defense and lack of defensive awareness among forwards is also a reason for a low goal total, it's hard to score when you are hemmed in most of the game. But let's also be real, the talent up front was atrocious. The last 3 years they have played non NHL players or lower tier ones in roles they were not suited for, or deserve simply due to lack of options.

That is not a problem this year. We actually have a log jam at forward where training camp will actually be fun and have a lot of competition for the first time in about 6 years. In prior campaigns, the lineup and roster was virtually set before September arrived. Now, there are so many options that are actually intriguing and skilled that no one has any idea who the 13 forwards will be up here. And not only that, no matter what we are going to have a top young player (or two) starting the season in Rochester when it comes to Nylander, Olofsson, TT, Guhle etc.

So to the question at hand, yes or no is the Sabres offense better? Are they going to score more then 201 goals and if they do how many will they score?

My prediction is Yes, they will score more then 201 goals and this is the best offense we have had since the Lindy Ruff days. I predict 225 goals, give or take 10. I could even see them pushing 3 GPG if everything clicks...Mittelstadt excels at 2C and scores 50+ points, Okposo rebounds, Dahlin and Risto each put up 40+. It really doesn't take anything outrageous to happen for them to average 3 goals a game. With the talent we have all throughout the lineup as long as all of the players play up to their talent and skill set then it is a very possible achievement. I am just happy that we have a team that has the ability to score 3+ goals 4-5 games in a row and also be able to win a game even if we don't score first. The last 6 years the Sabres have been so bad offensively that allowing the first goal was a death knell and pretty much an automatic loss. Now with the forwards we have up front I actually have faith in this team to be able to score 2-3 goals in a row when down a goal.
 

Sabre the Win

Joke of a Franchise
Jun 27, 2013
12,245
4,920
I just want to say while I get posters want more defense from their players, a good offense that can keep their opponents hemmed in their own zone for most of the game is just as good.

We are desperate for goal scoring. I want to see a Sabre player reach a PPG season again.

I think and hope we go over 201 goals. I am really excited about this season and Botts half won me over with Skinner. Still have a sour taste for ROR as I think using him to get another top 4 D would have been better but it is what it is.

Are we playoff bound? No but if we can be wild card battling after the all star break this will be an amazing season.
 

Club

Moderator
Mar 2, 2015
6,208
2,520
Calgary
I really like this thread. Went with yes. Emergence of Reinhart having a great second half last year. Possibly playing 1st line with Eichel and Skinner can do a lot of damage.

Sheary could bounce back and has the potential to hit 20-25. Hopefully he gels with the right guys. Mittelstadt looked well in his "cup of coffee" last year and I think could be a threat as 3C with 2nd line potential.

I just hope Okposo can flirt with 20. I'm very optimistic about next year. But still have some slight worry about our back end and goaltending. But we could be a bubble team in the Atlantic battling for 4th with the likes of Boston and Especially Florida.
 

jc17

Registered User
Jun 14, 2013
11,015
7,733
I hope so. We lost 73 goals with Kane, O'Reilly, Pominville, Pouliot

I see: Eichel-30, Skinner-30, Reinhart-25, Sheary-23, Okposo- 17, Mittelstadt-17, Erod-15, Berglund-15, Girgensons-10, Wilson-10, Larsson-6, Bailey/olofsson/baptiste/smith?-12

Scandella-5, Risto-10, Dahlin-7, Mccabe-6, Guhle-4, x-4

This gets us to 245, although this involves half these guys having career years, but not by much. It's also assuming 82 games. So even though it factors in Eichel scoring more than he has before, it doesn't include the random goals that will be scored by guys who get called up for a handful of games.
 

Jim Bob

RIP RJ
Feb 27, 2002
55,644
34,465
Rochester, NY
If they don't....

:help:

The bigger question to me is how many goals will they give up and what is the goal differential.

They gave up 280 goals and had a -81 GD.

Those two numbers will be more interesting to watch, IMO.
 
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Reddawg

We're all mad here
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Mar 22, 2007
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I think Eichel, Skinner and Reinhart will all top 30 goals this year, that gets us almost halfway there by itself. Hopeful that Okposo bounces back with 25 or so, and Sheary chips in 20+. That would be outstanding top six production for my money. It would be awesome if Mitts is in the hunt for the Calder with a big season as well. It's an exciting time to be a Sabres fan, that's for sure. Very much looking forward to the season...we've all suffered long enough with boring Buffalo hockey.
 
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jc17

Registered User
Jun 14, 2013
11,015
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If they don't....

:help:

The bigger question to me is how many goals will they give up and what is the goal differential.

They gave up 280 goals and had a -81 GD.

Those two numbers will be more interesting to watch, IMO.

I know its not this simple, but 7/10 of our worst players in terms of scoring chance% from last year are (hopefully) off the team this year. It's not all these players' faults but it should help if the players taking their spots can at least be serviceable.

Edit: And I know Hutton is still not a "sure thing" but until I looked at the numbers I didn't realize how much goaltending killed us last year.

Scoring chances against: 6th fewest allowed
Scoring chance goals against: 7th most allowed
High Danger chances: 11th fewest allowed
High danger goals against: 2nd most allowed
 
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Djp

Registered User
Jul 28, 2012
23,825
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Alexandria, VA
If the PP wasn't so bad to start the season last year they may have gotten to 230.

If the PP is top 5 I see them being 240+ next year
 

Jame

Registered User
Sep 4, 2002
52,673
9,037
Florida
Can they outscore their defensive deficiencies? That's the real question.

Best case scenario?

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart = 100 goals
Sheary-Mitts-Okposo = 60 goals
Berglund-Erod-Poms = 30 goals
Wilson/Sobotka-Larsson-Girgs = 15 goals
Depth/Call ups: 10 goals

= 215 Forward Goals

Scandella-Risto = 10 goals
Dahlin-Bogo = 10 goals
Guhle-McCabe = 5 goals
Depth/Call ups: 5 goals
= 30 D goals

245 goals
 
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Genny Screamer

Registered User
Jul 11, 2017
501
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Buffalo, NY
If the PP wasn't so bad to start the season last year they may have gotten to 230.

If the PP is top 5 I see them being 240+ next year

I agree. Our even strength production should increase which can lead to more power play opportunities.

Last year at the end of the season our power play lines were...

Line 1:
Okposo Eichel Reinhart
O'Reilly Ristolainen

Line 2:
Rodrigues Mittelstadt Pominville
Baptiste Scandella

Now we can add much more talent to the mix like Skinner, Dahlin...
 

Sabretooth

Registered User
May 14, 2013
3,098
635
Ohio
Looked at the 14 forwards and 7 dmen listed by capfriendly and added up each players best goal scoring season within the past 3 years (made a few minor adjustments here and there and guesses for rookies and new sabres) and ended up with 240 goals. So I voted yes.
 

Dingo44

We already won the trade
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Jul 21, 2015
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If they don't....

:help:

The bigger question to me is how many goals will they give up and what is the goal differential.

They gave up 280 goals and had a -81 GD.

Those two numbers will be more interesting to watch, IMO.

You have to figure with the bad goaltending and inferior D we put out last year, we have to give up a lot less this year.

Can we get to 250?

That would put us maybe at 245 for and 250 against. -5 is a big difference from -81. Maybe a bit too hopeful, but I think it's realistic.

That's not a playoff spot probably but it's within striking distance. And we'd be in a LOT more games. I think I would be happy with that.
 

Vito_81

Registered User
Jul 23, 2006
9,952
1,219
Toronto
Can they outscore their defensive deficiencies? That's the real question.

Best case scenario?

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart = 100 goals
Sheary-Mitts-Okposo = 60 goals
Berglund-Erod-Poms = 30 goals
Wilson/Sobotka-Larsson-Girgs = 15 goals
Depth/Call ups: 10 goals

= 215 Forward Goals

Scandella-Risto = 10 goals
Dahlin-Bogo = 10 goals
Guhle-McCabe = 5 goals
Depth/Call ups: 5 goals
= 30 D goals

245 goals

10 goals as a rookie ain’t too bad for Dahlin.
 

valet

obviously adhd
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Jan 26, 2017
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pretty handily I think. I'd be curious to see what would happen if the over/under was set to like 225 tho
 

sabrebuild

Registered User
Apr 21, 2014
10,517
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Pittsburgh
You have to figure with the bad goaltending and inferior D we put out last year, we have to give up a lot less this year.

Can we get to 250?

That would put us maybe at 245 for and 250 against. -5 is a big difference from -81. Maybe a bit too hopeful, but I think it's realistic.

That's not a playoff spot probably but it's within striking distance. And we'd be in a LOT more games. I think I would be happy with that.

What Dahlin, Guhle and Pilut/healthy Bogo bring to the table is such a question mark. It has to be a better unit overall, but super difficult to know what your going to get it.
 

brian_griffin

"Eric Cartman?"
May 10, 2007
16,620
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In the Panderverse
Can they outscore their defensive deficiencies? That's the real question.

Best case scenario?

Skinner-Eichel-Reinhart = 100 goals /80
Sheary-Mitts-Okposo = 60 goals /48
Berglund-Erod-Poms = 30 goals /24
Wilson/Sobotka-Larsson-Girgs = 15 goals /12
Depth/Call ups: 10 goals /8

= 215 Forward Goals

Scandella-Risto = 10 goals /8
Dahlin-Bogo = 10 goals /8
Guhle-McCabe = 5 goals /4
Depth/Call ups: 5 goals /4
= 30 D goals

245 goals
/80% values above = 196 total because:
1) Injuries (net loss from best case above, plus line juggling to compensate).
2) Housley.
3) It's still a pretty bad possession-game lineup / collection of talent.

I grant that if they are in more games / close games, their numbers likely go up.

I hope I am magnificently wrong, though!!!!
 

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