Will Stastny Stay?

[Tommigun]

Giveaways, blind passes in our zone, blowing the zone without the puck, back checking etc. I thought Wheeler was horrible defensively. I thought Laine surpassed him by the playoffs. I'm willing to be wrong, but that's what I saw.

I also think Laine was really strong defensively towards the end of the season.

 

[Whileee]

Not sure how one can come to THAT conclusion.

Expected goals against per 60 minutes (5v5)...

Wheeler 2.38
Laine 2.35

To be honest, I don't think either of them are terrific defensively.

Armia 1.93
Lowry 1.56

 

[Duke749]

Expected goals against per 60 minutes (5v5)...

Wheeler 2.38
Laine 2.35

To be honest, I don't think either of them are terrific defensively.

Armia 1.93
Lowry 1.56

Too much playoffs in my memory right now. Guess that explains it.

 

[Halberdier]

Expected goals against per 60 minutes (5v5)...

Wheeler 2.38
Laine 2.35

To be honest, I don't think either of them are terrific defensively.

Armia 1.93
Lowry 1.56

Expected goals are just virtual ones. xGF/xGA are of course hugely better than plain Corsi which is almost useless, but still players like Laine seems to be breaking the xGF/xGA model.

Real GA/60 5-on-5 (complete season 2017-2018):

Wheeler 2.29
Armia 2.26
Lowry 2.23
Laine 2.19

I am not calling Laine to be the best Jets winger defensively, but he is certainly not bad. His defensive positioning and IQ are superb. If he only had Armia-like forecheck and stickwork and a lot more grit, he would probably be the best. Those "ifs" and "onlys" are HUGE though...

Goals are not random when the sample size is high enough, and 99 games for Laine is pretty large sample size. His numbers were significantly worse on his previous season, though I guess that's true for pretty much all the Jets due to systematic defensive and goaltending problems.

 

[DRW204]

Colorado is 6M under the cap floor with one roster spot to fill and imo need a new 2nd line. They can easily outbid any team for Stastny.

 

[puck stoppa]

Colorado is 6M under the cap floor with one roster spot to fill and imo need a new 2nd line. They can easily outbid any team for Stastny.

They can. But for a guy like this he may realize that this is his best chance at winning the cup and signs here for one or two years. When guys make over 50 million in their career their next goal is best chance at cup, that is here not COL.

 

[DRW204]

They can. But for a guy like this he may realize that this is his best chance at winning the cup and signs here for one or two years. When guys make over 50 million in their career their next goal is best chance at cup, that is here not COL.

Depends how he weights winning, money and lifestyle/family situations.

COL went from absolute shit to a good up and coming team in a year and played NSH pretty tough this POs. I can see them taking another step next year along with offering Stastny a multi year 20M+ contract. They have enough cap room to make some significant moves this offseason + plenty of trade currency.

 

[puck stoppa]

Depends how he weights winning, money and lifestyle/family situations.

COL went from absolute **** to a good up and coming team in a year and played NSH pretty tough this POs. I can see them taking another step next year along with offering Stastny a multi year 20M+ contract. They have enough cap room to make some significant moves this offseason + plenty of trade currency.

But they won't be legitimate contenders, not even close. I think the Jets are. He may leave for a long term deal no doubt, but I think the only thing preventing him from staying is our cap situation and the fact that we may not be able to afford him. If Chevy wants him he makes it happen and he moves Myers and Perreault and Poolman and Roslo take their spots full time.

 

[DRW204]

But they won't be legitimate contenders, not even close. I think the Jets are. He may leave for a long term deal no doubt, but I think the only thing preventing him from staying is our cap situation and the fact that we may not be able to afford him. If Chevy wants him he makes it happen and he moves Myers and Perreault and Poolman and Roslo take their spots full time.

Agreed. like I said it depends how he weights his criteria. I just can't think of many examples of top players still under 35 so excluding situations like Chara, Thornton and Campbell, signing 1 year deals with teams when they have other lucrative ones on the table. Hossa obviously comes to mind but he signed with the team that previously beat him to win the cup lol.

 

[voyageur]

I think Stastny had a lot of fun here, but we can't sign him long term.

And as much as the Jets were contenders, things went right.

Maurice cost the team a chance at the Finals by failing to adapt to the Vegas style of play, with his personnel.

Honestly I can see him signing in Chicago long term. If the Hawks dump Hossa's salary on somebody (AZ, Florida, Vegas?). And dump Anisimov. Team that knows how to win. Coach who knows how to win.

St. Louis has a lot of good pieces, prospects in the pipeline, and is home for him and his family. They were hampered by goaltending this year, and we were bolstered by it.

It's hard to see him staying, I'd be apprehensive about building the team around Wheeler and him beyond a 3 year limit. But I hope he does. Great hockey sense, and competiveness. The kind of leader any team wants.

 

[Whileee]

Colorado is 6M under the cap floor with one roster spot to fill and imo need a new 2nd line. They can easily outbid any team for Stastny.

But after next season they are going to need cap room for Rantanen, Zadorov, Jost, Landeskog, etc. If they go high and long on Stastny, I don't think it's a good decision in the medium to longer term.

 

[DRW204]

But after next season they are going to need cap room for Rantanen, Zadorov, Jost, Landeskog, etc. If they go high and long on Stastny, I don't think it's a good decision in the medium to longer term.

Plenty of room

 

[Weezeric]

I'm a big stastny fan but I don't understand why little gets blasted for the lack of production of Ehlers and Laine when ELL was together but stastny gets a pass when Laine and Ehlers combined for 2 EV goals in 17 playoff games.....

 

[Whileee]

I'm a big stastny fan but I don't understand why little gets blasted for the lack of production of Ehlers and Laine when ELL was together but stastny gets a pass when Laine and Ehlers combined for 2 EV goals in 17 playoff games.....

Solid point. I thought that line lacked zip. When the pace really picked up I thought Laine and Stastny had trouble finding space because neither are super quick. Ehlers is fast but not an aggressive forechecker, so that line didn't retrieve many pucks to create more chances. I think Stastny would have done well with more speed and aggressiveness on the wing (maybe Perreault or Roslovic). Same for Laine. He might have done better with Scheifele and/or Connor.

 

[Ippenator]

I'm a big stastny fan but I don't understand why little gets blasted for the lack of production of Ehlers and Laine when ELL was together but stastny gets a pass when Laine and Ehlers combined for 2 EV goals in 17 playoff games.....

They were at least having clearly more chances in the playoffs playing with Stastny than playing with Little in the regular season. Stastny is simply a better playmaker than Little, which makes him a lot better fit with Laine and Ehlers. Stastny is also not perfect for them, as he is not able to hang on to the puck that much better than Little. But Stastny is clearly better with his vision and his passing, if he gets enough of time to hold on to the puck. He is ok with keeping the puck control, but not definitely great with it.

But another thing is that the line with Laine and Ehlers playing together, is not going to be anyway optimal, as those two are not a good match together. Them playing together in ELL was definitely part of the problem, although I do see Little being the center there being still the bigger problem.

Simply put, Laine and Ehlers should be separated and playing with different good playmaking capable centers, and grinders with some skill as their third linemates. If this is not done Laine and Ehlers are going to be terribly misused.

 

[Jeti]

Agreed. like I said it depends how he weights his criteria. I just can't think of many examples of top players still under 35 so excluding situations like Chara, Thornton and Campbell, signing 1 year deals with teams when they have other lucrative ones on the table. Hossa obviously comes to mind but he signed with the team that previously beat him to win the cup lol.

So Stastny is going to sign with Vegas? Shit. What's their cap situation like anyway? They could probably make room for him.

 

[Whileee]

They were at least having clearly more chances in the playoffs playing with Stastny than playing with Little in the regular season. Stastny is simply a better playmaker than Little, which makes him a lot better fit with Laine and Ehlers. Stastny is also not perfect for them, as he is not able to hang on to the puck that much better than Little. But Stastny is clearly better with his vision and his passing, if he gets enough of time to hold on to the puck. He is ok with keeping the puck control, but not definitely great with.

But another thing is that the line with Laine and Ehlers playing together, is not going to be anyway optimal, as those two are not a good match together. Them playing together in ELL was definitely part of the problem, although I do see Little being the center there being still the bigger problem.

Simply put, Laine and Ehlers should be separated and playing with different good playmaking capable centers, and grinders with some skill as their third linemates. If this is not done Laine and Ehlers are going to be terribly misused.

I agree. Ehlers and Laine both need to play with fast and aggressive linemates that can forecheck aggressively and create more space. Ehlers would be better with Scheifele and / or Roslovic or Wheeler. Laine would be better with Scheifele and / or Connor.

If the Jets find a way to keep Stastny, I'd consider...

Connor-Scheifele-Laine
Ehlers-Stastny-Wheeler
Perreault-Little-Roslovic

 

[LowLefty]

They were at least having clearly more chances in the playoffs playing with Stastny than playing with Little in the regular season. Stastny is simply a better playmaker than Little, which makes him a lot better fit with Laine and Ehlers. Stastny is also not perfect for them, as he is not able to hang on to the puck that much better than Little. But Stastny is clearly better with his vision and his passing, if he gets enough of time to hold on to the puck. He is ok with keeping the puck control, but not definitely great with.

But another thing is that the line with Laine and Ehlers playing together, is not going to be anyway optimal, as those two are not a good match together. Them playing together in ELL was definitely part of the problem, although I do see Little being the center there being still the bigger problem.

Simply put, Laine and Ehlers should be separated and playing with different good playmaking capable centers, and grinders with some skill as their third linemates. If this is not done Laine and Ehlers are going to be terribly misused.

So you separate Laine and Ehlers because neither is much good when it comes to work (or grind, whatever).
Why not try to develop both players so that they are better all around players rather than trying to find centers and wingers that will do all the work?
The problem you get with this approach is trying to find wingers and centers that want to play with either of them - especially when they are high end. Do you think Stas and Scheif want to play along side anyone that is unwilling to put in the same effort (call it grind) that they do?

I agree with you - I see this as being a real issue going forward if something isn't done - but we may disagree on the solution.

 

[Whileee]

So you separate Laine and Ehlers because neither is much good when it comes to work (or grind, whatever).
Why not try to develop both players so that they are better all around players rather than trying to find centers and wingers that will do all the work?
The problem you get with this approach is trying to find wingers and centers that want to play with either of them - especially when they are high end. Do you think Stas and Scheif want to play along side anyone that is unwilling to put in the same effort (call it grind) that they do?

I agree with you - I see this as being a real issue going forward if something isn't done - but we may disagree on the solution.

Good points. Connor is a good example of a player that really improved his tenacity... Ehlers needs more of that approach. I think Laine mainly lacks some quickness, which I hope he improves on this offseason.

 

[DRW204]

So Stastny is going to sign with Vegas? ****. What's their cap situation like anyway? They could probably make room for him.

Apparently enough for Tavares, Karlsson and Ryan

 

[surixon]

Good points. Connor is a good example of a player that really improved his tenacity... Ehlers needs more of that approach. I think Laine mainly lacks some quickness, which I hope he improves on this offseason.

Laine doesn't have much issue going to the wall to fight for pucks but at 19 he hasn't gotten to the point where he is strong enough to win most of the battles. I am not too worried, Chef was much the same way when he was younger. As you mentioned adding some quickness to his game will further help him forecheck.

Ehelers specializes in gaining the zone with control, I don't think it is as crucial for him to become a demon on the forecheck. Like Laine I think he just needs to improve his strength a bit to win more battles.

 

[Ippenator]

So you separate Laine and Ehlers because neither is much good when it comes to work (or grind, whatever).
Why not try to develop both players so that they are better all around players rather than trying to find centers and wingers that will do all the work?
The problem you get with this approach is trying to find wingers and centers that want to play with either of them - especially when they are high end. Do you think Stas and Scheif want to play along side anyone that is unwilling to put in the same effort (call it grind) that they do?

I agree with you - I see this as being a real issue going forward if something isn't done - but we may disagree on the solution.

We definitely see the situation after all quite differently. I see no problem with the effort that either Laine or Ehlers are having. Not being a great grinder or especially good in board battles does not definitely automatically mean that a player lacks the will to work. Sometimes it can be even about that, but in Laine’s and Ehlers’s case it is definitely about them not being physically developed enough to be very strong in battle situations. In Laine’s case he needs to also clearly develop his stamina much more.

But still either of them is not as bad in battles and defensive play, as some people are constantly trying to claim here. The 5 on 5 goal difference that the Jets have when they are on the ice should prove it, if some people don’t realize just by watching them play.

But neither Laine nor Ehlers have board play or grinding as their biggest strength and in my opinion it’s practically crazy to expect them to ever be players that are going to seriously excel in those areas. Sure they can get stronger and learn to become better with them. But it’s not like either of them is hopeless even now, as if they were, it would be impossible for the Jets to have such good 5 on 5 goal difference even when they are both playing on the same line.

But there is still no reason to not try to have optimal lines in the way where players have different kind of roles, and their strengths are used to exactly support their linemates with some areas that are not their biggest strengths. Much better to have one great grinder playing with a great playmaker and a great goalscorer than have three great playmakers playing together, or three great goalscorers playing together, or three great grinders playing together. Just simply because strengths combine better with supporting the possible weaknesses in the lines. Three players with similar strengths and similar weaknesses make for most probably a weaker line.

In my opion the Jets have exactly enough of all kinds of players to mix them in the right combinations to have at least two very good scoring lines that are not really weak in any particular way. In my opion it’s really strange talk to say that good playmakers like Scheifele or Stastny wouldn’t want to play with good goalscorers like Laine or Ehlers. But it’s in my opinion also strange to think that they wouldn’t also want then the other winger in their line to be then more of a real puckbattle winning pest that can still play with at least ok skill. I mean Scheifele and Stastny would be practically morons to not want to play with a scoring winger like Laine, but I’m pretty sure that they would be happier to have a player like Wheeler of Perreault on their other wing, if their other winger is either Laine or Ehlers, than to have both Laine and Ehlers as their wingers.

And honestly Laine’s and Ehlers’s biggest problem is in fact not their defensive play when they play together, but it is in fact that they don’t connect very well in the offence. To me it looks very clearly like they just don’t think about playing offence too much in the same way. Well, both are for sure more shooters than passers, but they think still differently about how to play passing plays and where to find open space in the offensive zone.

They can be both already excellent players if they are supported with the right kind of players. And they can be much more effective for the Jets with those kind of linemates. They can for sure still learn to be better in battles and more physical situations, but they don’t need to be put in to the situations where they can’t use their strengths optimally to help the team, while learning to become better with the areas that are not their strength. They are not stupid kids, so I think it’s wrong to think that if they have one great grinder helping them get better the puck will make them somehow not do work themselves. I believe they would in fact learn better in the way that they would be constantly playing with players whom have strengths that exactly cover for their weaker areas.

No special talent in hockey has been a real allaround elite player. Every player has their stronger areas and weaker areas and no one can ever make all players as good as some others in all areas. That is why you need the right roles and combinations to have optimal lines and a very well working team. The Jets have mostly the right players for doing it, but unfortunately they don’t have the coach whom knows how to do the optimizing.

 

[Adam da bomb]

We definitely see the situation after all quite differently. I see no problem with the effort that either Laine or Ehlers are having. Not being a great grinder or especially good in board battles does not definitely automatically mean that a player lacks the will to work. Sometimes it can be even about that, but in Laine’s and Ehlers’s case it is definitely about them not being physically developed enough to be very strong in battle situations. In Laine’s case he needs to also clearly develop his stamina much more.

But still either of them is not as bad in battles and defensive play, as some people are constantly trying to claim here. The 5 on 5 goal difference that the Jets have when they are on the ice should prove it, if some people don’t realize just by watching them play.

But neither Laine nor Ehlers have board play or grinding as their biggest strength and in my opinion it’s practically crazy to expect them to ever be players that are going to seriously excel in those areas. Sure they can get stronger and learn to become better with them. But it’s not like either of them is hopeless even now, as if they were, it would be impossible for the Jets to have such good 5 on 5 goal difference even when they are both playing on the same line.

But there is still no reason to not try to have optimal lines in the way where players have different kind of roles, and their strengths are used to exactly support their linemates with some areas that are not their biggest strengths. Much better to have one great grinder playing with a great playmaker and a great goalscorer than have three great playmakers playing together, or three great goalscorers playing together, or three great grinders playing together. Just simply because strengths combine better with supporting the possible weaknesses in the lines. Three players with similar strengths and similar weaknesses make for most probably a weaker line.

In my opion the Jets have exactly enough of all kinds of players to mix them in the right combinations to have at least two very good scoring lines that are not really weak in any particular way. In my opion it’s really strange talk to say that good playmakers like Scheifele od Stastny wouldn’t want to play with good goalscorers like Laine or Ehlers. But it’s in my opinion also strange to think that they wouldn’t also want then the other winger in their line to be then more of a real puckbattle winning pest that can still play with at least ok skill. I mean Scheifele and Stastny would be practically morons to not want to play with a scoring winger like Laine, but I’m pretty sure that they would be happier to have a player like Wheeler of Perreault on their other wing, if their other winger is either Laine or Ehlers, than to have both Laine and Ehlers as their wingers.

And honestly Laine’s and Ehlers’s biggest problem is in fact not their defensive play when they play together, but it is in fact that they don’t connect very well in the offence. To me it looks very clearly like they just don’t think about playing offence too much in the same way. Well, both are for sure more shooters than passers, but they think still differently about how to play passing plays and where to find open space in the offensive zone.

They can be both already excellent players if they are supported with the right kind of players. And they can be much more effective for the Jets with those kind of linemates. They can for sure still learn to be better in battles and more physical situations, but they don’t need to be put in to the situations where they can’t use their strengths optimally to help the team, while learning to become better with the areas that are not their strength. They are not stupid kids, so I think it’s wrong to think that if they have one great grinder helping them get better the puck will make them somehow not do work themselves. I believe they would in fact learn better in the way that they would be constantly playing with players whom have strengths that exactly cover for their weaker areas.

No special talent in hockey has been a real allaround elite player. Every player has their stronger areas and weaker areas and no one can ever make all players as good as some others in all areas. That is why you need the right roles and combinations to have optimal lines and a very well working team. The Jets have mostly the right players for doing it, but unfortunately they don’t have the coach whom knows how to do the optimizing.

McDavid is pretty elite at getting the puck back, scoring and playmaking. He has no glaring shortcomings, neither does Chef to a much lesser degree. Two elite players who are elite all around.

 

[Ippenator]

McDavid is pretty elite at getting the puck back, scoring and playmaking. He has no glaring shortcomings, neither does Chef to a much lesser degree. Two elite players who are elite all around.

But McDavid or Scheifele neither of them are really elite in their defensive positional play. No matter how good they are in those things that you just mentioned, they still are not elite in their defensive positional play or they are not elite with their pure strength. They are not elite in everything although they have more of elite strengths than most of the other players. I wouldn’t also call either of them as elite shooters, although they both can shoot pretty darn well and score definitely a lot of goals. But they still score most of their goals with the help of their real elite strengths that are their skating, puck controlling skills and excellent hockey IQ.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

It feels worth mentioning here that the Jets were prepared to have Brassard on the books next year at $5 million. Not saying Stastny would take that but the Jets were prepared to take that on. Having that term on a rental is probably why Brassard was Chevy's first choice.

You would have to think that internally discussions about who goes next year if Brassard was acquired had taken place. If Stastny and the Jets do not make a deal happen we could still take some of that money and put it into another center even if he isn't a clear cut 2C (slim pickings in the free agent pool this year).

Unless we get some team friendly deals this offseason somebody has to go. Unless they pivot away from signing Stastny and use that money to keep Myers and Perreault for another year. The stars would need to align (literally) for that to happen though.

First of all you don't know that Chevy was prepared to have Brassard next year at 5 mil. Maybe the plan was to flip him before the draft. Secondly, next year isn't the big problem. It is the years after.