Will Ovechkin beat Gretzky in all-time goals?

[Troubadour]

I think he has a Cup ring, a new baby, and a contract that expires the season before the CBA does. I could see him signing a one year deal and then just leaving and playing in Russia if there is a prolonged work stoppage.

A lockout might ruin it for him. But imagine he's around 800 in 2022. I bet he would come back even after a year spent overseas and take his shot at immortality (that's what it is).

 

[Fitzy]

Just be "glad" that Gretzky had a fast and early drop-off and didn't age like Selänne. Those career numbers would be even more ridiculous and even the total goals record would be literally impossible (and not just the points, assists and single season records). At least he left the coming generations with something to dream about.

I think Gretz had a pretty standard drop off. It's guys like Selanne who are the unusual ones.

For Ovi, my prediction is still #2 all time. There's a lot of space between 802 and 894. That's potentially three hockey seasons once he's an aging PP guy.

 

[BallardEra]

I didnt see the stats, thought somebody said he was half way there.

I think you are confusing the topic I recently resurrected from the dead. One guy claimed he wouldn't even hit 600.

It got locked but good for some laughs:

Ovechkin is now halfway to Gretzky!

 

[ovythegiraffe]

just out of curiosity has he ever expressed any interest in going to the KHL for a couple years in the twilight of his career? I know Datsyuk used to talk about it for example

anyways if he can sticks around till he's around 40 and can stay healthy he can probably do it,far from a sure thing to stay healthy for another 7 years but even having a realistic shot at being tops in raw total is pretty crazy considering era scoring differences

I don't remember him talking about playing in khl, but he has been very vocal about wanting to go to the olympics which it think might be a deciding factor.

Next Olympics are february 2022 and his contract ends 2021 so if nhl won't let players go to the olympics, then imo there's a big chance he'll play that year in khl and then probably just stays there for the rest of his career. He now has the cup and pretty much the only thing left for him to win is the olympics and that will be his last chance most likely. I don't think olympics without nhl players is anything worth winning, but I don't know if he sees it that way.

Also, even though he seems to enjoy it in Wahington, some factors could be that he wants his son to grow up in russia and be near his family who he's very close with.

 

[BallardEra]

Something I've noticed about Ovechkin this year and wanted to throw it out there. I haven't watched all of his games so perhaps those that have can chime in.

He sits 8th in shots on goal this season. Usually he is far and away the leader in this category. Why are his shots down this season?

Just feel that if this trend continues that it might point to him obviously scoring less and less every season.

He is at 3.86 SOG/game this season.

He was at 4.33 last season (49 goal season) 3.82 the year before that (his 33 goal season) and 5.04 the year before that one. (50 goal season)

What are the main reasons for his shots reduction?

 

[BackToTheBasics]

Something I've noticed about Ovechkin this year and wanted to throw it out there. I haven't watched all of his games so perhaps those that have can chime in.

He sits 8th in shots on goal this season. Usually he is far and away the leader in this category. Why are his shots down this season?

Just feel that if this trend continues that it might point to him obviously scoring less and less every season.

He is at 3.86 SOG/game this season.

He was at 4.33 last season (49 goal season) 3.82 the year before that (his 33 goal season) and 5.04 the year before that one. (50 goal season)

What are the main reasons for his shots reduction?

He's a bit more selective with his shots then he has been in the past. Rather than shooting from everywhere and anywhere, he's passing when he doesn't have a good look. He's had quite a few tremendous primary assists in the last few games alone.

That's also reflecting in his ES assists/game. It's at its highest since 2011. It's also still early and he's riding an insanely high PDO and on ice sh%. I would expect him to ramp up the shots towards the end of the season if the rocket race is tight.

 

[cowboy82nd]

Didnt he just recently get half way there?? He would need to beast through the rest of his 30s. Hope he does though. Would be amazing!

No. Ovi already has more than 620 goals. Gretkzy has scored 894. Ovi is more than half way there.

 

[Dr John Carlson]

What are the main reasons for his shots reduction?

Can't verify this with stats at the moment so I could be wrong, but I feel as though his shot totals have increased to close to normal totals since being reunited with Backstrom. Kuznetsov has really floated at even strength this year with the exception of his first 4 or 5 games. At this point in his career, Ovechkin relies on his centre to distribute the puck so when the centre (which was Kuznetsov until about game 15) is playing poorly, his stats suffer as a result.

 

[BackToTheBasics]

Can't verify this with stats at the moment so I could be wrong, but I feel as though his shot totals have increased to close to normal totals since being reunited with Backstrom. Kuznetsov has really floated at even strength this year with the exception of his first 4 or 5 games. At this point in his career, Ovechkin relies on his centre to distribute the puck so when the centre (which was Kuznetsov until about game 15) is playing poorly, his stats suffer as a result.

Kuznetsov has been pretty bad at ES this season. The PP also hasn't been clicking for the past 10 games or so. Ovechkin's averaged 4 shots/game without Kuznetsov since his injury so he hasn't really affected his shot totals. He's definitely looked more active and effective at ES with Backstrom since they've been re-united.

 

[Dondini]

Put it this way he’s 70.4% of the way to Gretzky.

 

[SwaggySpungo]

I think Gretz had a pretty standard drop off. It's guys like Selanne who are the unusual ones.

Gretzky’s drop off after the 1991 back injury was pretty significant. He won the Art Ross once after that injury, but never had another Gretzky-like year again. He wasn’t ever the same after that Canada Cup.

His production dropped by 40 points between the ‘91 season and the ‘92 season.

 

[DFC]

I think Gretz had a pretty standard drop off. It's guys like Selanne who are the unusual ones.

For Ovi, my prediction is still #2 all time. There's a lot of space between 802 and 894. That's potentially three hockey seasons once he's an aging PP guy.

That's probably accurate. I think he has 200 left in him for sure, assuming his health holds up. Even as a PP specialist who just stands and fires, he could put up 20 per year, someday in the distant future. Given his love of the game, I could easily seem him playing into his 40s, and remaining effective. I guess we just don't know if he'll play in NA that whole time.

I do think he's the best goal-scorer of all-time though. Or, at least, I think he's made it a real argument. And that's insane.

 

[Hippasus]

Yeah if your debating on pure shooting skill I agree, he wasn't the best from that stand point, I think Lemieux and Bossy were better shooters, but you also can't be a slouch if you hit nearly 900 goals in less than 1500 GP. Gretzky was also dealing with a back issue in the later part of his career, which is why he stopped shooting as much and scoring less. That and I think he just loved passing the puck to others.

Gretzky started focusing on playmaking a few seasons before his back injury.

 

[The Panther]

Gretzky’s drop off after the 1991 back injury was pretty significant. He won the Art Ross once after that injury, but never had another Gretzky-like year again. He wasn’t ever the same after that Canada Cup.

His production dropped by 40 points between the ‘91 season and the ‘92 season.

That's right. Two things happened to him at once in autumn 1991 -- one was his father's aneurysm (Oct. 13, 1991), which was nearly fatal and pulled Gretzky away from the game for a week or two, and probably left him less focused on hockey the early part of that season. The other of course was the Suter hit, which -- so I think -- exacerbated the first back-injury he'd had over a year earlier, in April 1990 (playoffs game three), when Steve Smith nailed him hard into the boards from behind (Gretzky left that game and missed the Kings' last game of that season).

Gretzky still ended up 2nd in PPG in 1991-92 (to Mario), but he was not himself anymore. The first three years in L.A. his ES + Shorthanded points were:
115 - 1989 (78 games)
102 - 1990 (73 games)
104 - 1991 (78 games)
and then in 1992:
67 - 1992 (74 games)

It was also the first season in his career he posted a minus rating (despite having played on a losing team three times previously).

Then, in 1992-93, he played only the second half of the season, and at that he was rushed back prematurely because the Kings had entered a slump. They got hot near the end of the season, and had that surprising run to the Finals... but the team was falling apart.

In 1993-94, Gretzky was superb in the first 24 games of the season (12 goals, 37 assists, 49 points, 'even' plus/minus rating), but the Kings were already heading into the crapper by then. Then, the last 57 games (26 goals, 55 assists, 81 points, -25 rating) he was rather poor by his standard. I think once he broke the Howe goals record in March (?) 1994, he pretty much mailed in the last 10 games or so of that season (still won the scoring title, though).

So, in a sense 1991-92 and 1992-93 are "lost" seasons, and 1993-94 was the end-point of his Kings' era. But all those are his 'post-prime' seasons.

Ovechkin is sitting in a great situation now that he's a veteran but his team is strong and stable. He doesn't have off-ice distractions that I'm aware of, and his team/management seem competent. The trend of the League now towards softer play and higher scoring might benefit his final numbers.

Still, 265-or-whatever-it-is goals is A LOT for someone at his age. I mean, Peter Forsberg didn't score that many goals his entire career.

 

[Fitzy]

That's probably accurate. I think he has 200 left in him for sure, assuming his health holds up. Even as a PP specialist who just stands and fires, he could put up 20 per year, someday in the distant future. Given his love of the game, I could easily seem him playing into his 40s, and remaining effective. I guess we just don't know if he'll play in NA that whole time.

I do think he's the best goal-scorer of all-time though. Or, at least, I think he's made it a real argument. And that's insane.

For sure, if we're taking era into consideration, and look at times leading the league in goals, you have

Ovechkin (7 times)
Bobby Hull (7 times)
Phil Esposito (6 times)

And then a bunch of people at 5.

 

[Sam Spade]

That's right. Two things happened to him at once in autumn 1991 -- one was his father's aneurysm (Oct. 13, 1991), which was nearly fatal and pulled Gretzky away from the game for a week or two, and probably left him less focused on hockey the early part of that season. The other of course was the Suter hit, which -- so I think -- exacerbated the first back-injury he'd had over a year earlier, in April 1990 (playoffs game three), when Steve Smith nailed him hard into the boards from behind (Gretzky left that game and missed the Kings' last game of that season).

Gretzky still ended up 2nd in PPG in 1991-92 (to Mario), but he was not himself anymore. The first three years in L.A. his ES + Shorthanded points were:
115 - 1989 (78 games)
102 - 1990 (73 games)
104 - 1991 (78 games)
and then in 1992:
67 - 1992 (74 games)

It was also the first season in his career he posted a minus rating (despite having played on a losing team three times previously).

Then, in 1992-93, he played only the second half of the season, and at that he was rushed back prematurely because the Kings had entered a slump. They got hot near the end of the season, and had that surprising run to the Finals... but the team was falling apart.

In 1993-94, Gretzky was superb in the first 24 games of the season (12 goals, 37 assists, 49 points, 'even' plus/minus rating), but the Kings were already heading into the crapper by then. Then, the last 57 games (26 goals, 55 assists, 81 points, -25 rating) he was rather poor by his standard. I think once he broke the Howe goals record in March (?) 1994, he pretty much mailed in the last 10 games or so of that season (still won the scoring title, though).

So, in a sense 1991-92 and 1992-93 are "lost" seasons, and 1993-94 was the end-point of his Kings' era. But all those are his 'post-prime' seasons.

Ovechkin is sitting in a great situation now that he's a veteran but his team is strong and stable. He doesn't have off-ice distractions that I'm aware of, and his team/management seem competent. The trend of the League now towards softer play and higher scoring might benefit his final numbers.

Still, 265-or-whatever-it-is goals is A LOT for someone at his age. I mean, Peter Forsberg didn't score that many goals his entire career.

Good stuff in that post.

Just wanted to note that even if his last years were a struggle for a player of his stature, he sure went out with a bang in his last playoff appearance in 1997 at age 36.

10 goals (two hat tricks), 10 assists in 15 games. 5 points and 3 goals behind the eventual playoff leaders.

 

[DFC]

That's right. Two things happened to him at once in autumn 1991 -- one was his father's aneurysm (Oct. 13, 1991), which was nearly fatal and pulled Gretzky away from the game for a week or two, and probably left him less focused on hockey the early part of that season. The other of course was the Suter hit, which -- so I think -- exacerbated the first back-injury he'd had over a year earlier, in April 1990 (playoffs game three), when Steve Smith nailed him hard into the boards from behind (Gretzky left that game and missed the Kings' last game of that season).

Gretzky still ended up 2nd in PPG in 1991-92 (to Mario), but he was not himself anymore. The first three years in L.A. his ES + Shorthanded points were:
115 - 1989 (78 games)
102 - 1990 (73 games)
104 - 1991 (78 games)
and then in 1992:
67 - 1992 (74 games)

It was also the first season in his career he posted a minus rating (despite having played on a losing team three times previously).

Then, in 1992-93, he played only the second half of the season, and at that he was rushed back prematurely because the Kings had entered a slump. They got hot near the end of the season, and had that surprising run to the Finals... but the team was falling apart.

In 1993-94, Gretzky was superb in the first 24 games of the season (12 goals, 37 assists, 49 points, 'even' plus/minus rating), but the Kings were already heading into the crapper by then. Then, the last 57 games (26 goals, 55 assists, 81 points, -25 rating) he was rather poor by his standard. I think once he broke the Howe goals record in March (?) 1994, he pretty much mailed in the last 10 games or so of that season (still won the scoring title, though).

So, in a sense 1991-92 and 1992-93 are "lost" seasons, and 1993-94 was the end-point of his Kings' era. But all those are his 'post-prime' seasons.

Ovechkin is sitting in a great situation now that he's a veteran but his team is strong and stable. He doesn't have off-ice distractions that I'm aware of, and his team/management seem competent. The trend of the League now towards softer play and higher scoring might benefit his final numbers.

Still, 265-or-whatever-it-is goals is A LOT for someone at his age. I mean, Peter Forsberg didn't score that many goals his entire career.

Great post. As for the end, while 265 goals is definitely a lot, Ovy only needs 3-4 more Ovy-like seasons to make it realistic. He might not have 3-4 in him, certainly. But this current season sure looks like a typical Ovy season, and it's intriguing that it's even plausible for him to hit that number.

 

[The Panther]

And then a bunch of people at 5.

Not really "a bunch" of people -- there are exactly four (Charlie Conacher, Rocket Richard, Howe, Gretzky).

Whether or not Ovechkin is the greatest goal-scorer is another question, though. I guess the issue is: Will he reach 895?

 

[Sam Spade]

Gretzky seems like a dream but there are still some really nice records Ovechkin could match or surpass.

17 thirty goal seasons by Gartner, Ovechkin has 13.
12 forty goal seasons by Gretzky, Ovechkin has 9.
9 fifty goal seasons will be harder (damn you Devils for not pulling the goalie last season ), Ovechkin has 7.
15 consecutive 30 goal seasons by Gartner and Jagr.

So even if he doesn't get the ultimate "goal" he could still add some NHL records to his resume.

 

[CascadiaPuck]

I would love to see it happen, but I think the odds are slim.

If he hadn't missed time due to multiple lockouts, this would be a much more interesting topic.

I think he can catch Howe. That's what I have my eye on.

As others have noted though: having the most Rocket trophies and accounting for era, even if he falls short of Gretzky's total, he has an argument for best-ever goal scorer.

 

[The Panther]

I was wondering how the NHL goals-leaders might shift a bit if we look at regular season + playoffs combined? (I couldn't find it online.) This is how the top-15 shakes down *I think* (Ovechkin is currently 15th in RS goals):

1. 1016 - Gretzky
2. 869 - Howe
3. 844 - Brett Hull
4. 844 - Jagr
5. 803 - Messier
6. 778 - Esposito
7. 766 - Lemieux
8. 762 - Yzerman
9. 752 - Dionne
10. 751 - Gartner
11. 728 - Selanne
12. 726 - Robitaille
13. 716 - Shanahan
14. 709 - Sakic
15. 707 - Kurri

16. 690 - Ovechkin

Correct me if I've missed anyone, but that's what I've got. Jari Kurri actually still has more career NHL goals than Ovechkin, due to his stud-like playoff goal scoring (and being on a Dynasty). Sakic also jumps up into the top-15 because he was a playoff beast.

If the Caps have one more deep playoff run, maybe this or next year, and if Ovechkin can manage this and next year to get 40+ goals, you have to think that's at least 100+ more on this career list, which would also put him up in the top 5 or 6 all-time.

 

[BallardEra]

I think the coolest thing if this ever does happen would be Wayne following Ovie around game to game. Then him honouring Ovie at the game where he breaks his record with #895.

Hopefully all parties involved and us as well are around to see this if it ever happens.

 

[gtrower]

Something I've noticed about Ovechkin this year and wanted to throw it out there. I haven't watched all of his games so perhaps those that have can chime in.

He sits 8th in shots on goal this season. Usually he is far and away the leader in this category. Why are his shots down this season?

Just feel that if this trend continues that it might point to him obviously scoring less and less every season.

He is at 3.86 SOG/game this season.

He was at 4.33 last season (49 goal season) 3.82 the year before that (his 33 goal season) and 5.04 the year before that one. (50 goal season)

What are the main reasons for his shots reduction?

Without researching, I'd venture a guess that his ES shots/game is closer to his norm, but his PP shots/game is lower than usual. Caps PP has struggled the last 10/15 games with the rotating door of 1PP time (Oshie/Kuzy missing significant time and then Wilson getting hurt right when he was dominating).

That's the crazy thing. He's leading the league in goals with a floundering PP. He's the best PP player in the world, and once it gets back on track his numbers are only going to go up. He's already Top 10 in points. I see him running away with the Rocket. Again.

 

[Bertuzzzi44]

Era adjusted all time goals leaders:

1. Howe - 925
2. Jagr - 841
3. Gretzky - 758
4. Ovechkin - 750
5. Selanne - 741
6. Brett Hull - 738

Ovechkin at Gretzky’s level already. The Great 8 is the greatest goal scorer of all time. 99 was a benefactor of playing in the highest scoring era (80’s). What OV’s been able to do in this era; where defences, goaltending, coaching & competition are world class, is simply remarkable.

 

[stepdad gaary]

in fairness, he has showed plenty of signs of slowing down, he usually just corrects them and continues. in 2012, we all thought he was declining.