Will MLS eventually surpass the NHL in revenue?

[Mike in MN]

Oh really, so the millions of dollars that the NHL has given to Hockey Canada, the CHL, and USA Hockey doesn't count? Plus the Hockey is for Everyone campaign.

I was referring to non-traditional markets engaging in rink construction, sponsoring high school hockey, etc in their markets. Teams in non-traditional markets that have done this (Dallas, San Jose, Nashville the last few years...) seem to fair better then teams in similar markets that ignore this mandate (Atlanta, Phoenix, Nashville before 2007...)

My point was that the league should be working on these issues in all of the non-traditional markets instead of leaving it up to the individual teams.

 

[Aaronxxx]

I was referring to non-traditional markets engaging in rink construction, sponsoring high school hockey, etc in their markets. Teams in non-traditional markets that have done this (Dallas, San Jose, Nashville the last few years...) seem to fair better then teams in similar markets that ignore this mandate (Atlanta, Phoenix, Nashville before 2007...)

My point was that the league should be working on these issues in all of the non-traditional markets instead of leaving it up to the individual teams.

the thrashers organizaton is actually very active in local hockey development

 

[MountainHawk]

I know baseball is still very big at this moment.

Still, if I had to pick one of the Big Four sports that is likely to decline the most over the long-term (say, the next 50 years), it would be baseball. Looking at youth participation (Little League is way down) and the demographics of the average baseball fan (i.e. old), these indicators don't look good for the future.

Seems like baseball is already basically dead in Canada. The Expos left. The Jay get terrible attendance for being in such a large market. All the minor pro teams fled the country in the last 10-15 years, except for one single-A team in Vancouver. All this despite the sport being quite popular there once upon a time.

Anyway, that's my prediction. It makes me sad in a way, because I like baseball, but that's the way I think it's going to play out.

Baseball has had the worst commissioner of the big 4 for a long, long time. When Selig leaves, if the owners are smart, they'll emphasize finding someone that will focus on re-energizing the younger fan base.

 

[KingLB]

Exactly. Which MLS fans complain about sections of the league like the hockey fans do.

MLS boards are almost exactly the same as NHL boards except the teams they wanted moved aren't because they are in "non-traditional markets". Its because of things like horrible stadium situation.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

MLS boards are almost exactly the same as NHL boards except the teams they wanted moved aren't because they are in "non-traditional markets". Its because of things like horrible stadium situation.

OUt of curiousity would those markets be New England, Washington, San Jose and HOuston? I know none of these teams have new stadiums currently. They play in football stadiums.

 

[nwsaboy]

Ain't gonna happen until MLS can match NHL gate revenues.

MLS - 30 Games
NHL - 82 Games

MLS avg attendance - 16,120 (2009)
NHL avg attendance - 17,072 (2010)

MLS has similar attendance - with some upside to grow(*) - but less than 40% of the number of home games.

MLS would have to support an avg ticket price of ~2.5x the NHL average in order to match gate revenues.

(*) Seattle has the highest attendace @ ~30K. The trend in MLS is towards new soccer-only stadiums with 20-30K capacities. Seattle, New England, and DC are the only teams in larger multi-purpose stadiums (Qwest Field, Gillette Stadium, and RFK Stadium).

when vancouver comes into the league they will have a stadium that can potentially house 54,500

 

[kdb209]

when vancouver comes into the league they will have a stadium that can potentially house 54,500

AIUI, the plans are for a 20K seating configuration at BC Place for soccer once the renovations are complete.

Also, there were plans for a 20-30K waterfront soccer only stadium, but as far as I know those plans are still in limbo.

Basically MSL has figured out that a 20-30K soccer only stadium controlled by the club is the sweet spot for revenues.

 

[kdb209]

OUt of curiousity would those markets be New England, Washington, San Jose and HOuston? I know none of these teams have new stadiums currently. They play in football stadiums.

Lew Wolfe (owner of the As and Earthquakes) has been working for the last 3+ years with the city of San Jose to develop a new 15-20K seat soccer stadium next to San Jose Airport.

That development was deferred due to the recession. The original plan was for Wolfe to fund the stadium in return for San Jose rezoning some land he owned from commercial to residential. Later plans revolved around a larger commercial development including the stadium.

Wolff has a purchase option on the site thru 2015 and has already built the Earthquakes training facility on part of the site.

 

[Brodie]

I think I've heard this story before. I can't recall how it ends...



Oh yeah, like that.

Soccer has been "the next big thing in North America" for many, many decades now. I'll believe it when I see it.

Totes, bro. Remember all those years in the 70's where 20 million people in the US watched World Cup matches in the middle of the afternoon on broadcast TV? Oh wait, that never happened before 2010. These constant denials about soccer's growth every time the subject is broached are kind of sad... it's okay, nobody is going to force any of you to watch any matches. But you have to accept the reality of the situation: soccer is here, it's stable and it's growing at an astronomical rate.

As for the immigrant argument, yes they come from soccer-loving countries and yes they love soccer. But what sports do their kids, who are born and raised in North America, play and watch?

Soccer. You might want to scan through this thread: http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=523297 paying particular attention to the most recent update here: http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=21905503&postcount=174. As for what they watch... a few Mexican league games on Univision have drawn upwards of 4 million US viewers, suggesting interest is already close to par with the NHL. You can't honestly believe those numbers are all new immigrants.

The world is changing. Assimilation is no longer the name of the game for most immigrants, especially from Latin America.

As for the question at hand: Yes, probably. It will take another couple of generations, but at this point I think soccer's rise is undeniable. Hockey is at a particular disadvantage here being both 100 times more expensive to play and just as foreign in many parts of the US.

 

[KingLB]

OUt of curiousity would those markets be New England, Washington, San Jose and HOuston? I know none of these teams have new stadiums currently. They play in football stadiums.

Yes, but it is in flux for a few. KDB already covered SJ. Houston is getting their stadium, ground breaking within the month, should be done by next year (though they were never a threat to move as their attendance is quite good). Washington.....depends on what you mean by that, Seattle Washington is the best market in MLS currently.....Washington DC yes. They use to be the model franchise for MLS but they play in a old baseball stadium, control very few of the revenue streams (if any) and pay rent. All this while their attendance is on a decline (as well as play) and an owner with a lack of resources plus little local support has stalled hopes for their own SSS. New England is complicated, because while they play in a over sized stadium, but it is owned by their owner. So they "control the revenue streams"...but the stadium is so large it often kills the fan experience. And finally one you didn't list, Chivas. While they play in a SSS they rent from the Galaxy as well as sharing the market.

 

[Brodie]

every MLS forum on the internet has at least 100 threads about moving Chivas. It's the law.

 

[billycanuck]

MLS attendance

Interesting to note that Kansas City, despite having small numbers, played to 99% capacity. Should see an improvement with their new soccer specific stadium opening this season. Also, Vancouver and Portland are already looking to average at least 16,000 with season ticket holders alone. Those teams will help increase overall attendance figures.

Seattle is just a monster, attendance wise. They are averaging more fans than a lot of European teams.

Dallas has a nice stadium, Pizza Hut Park, however it is located outside of Dallas and I have heard of some fans complaining about how far away the stadium is.

San Jose, New England, DC, and Chivas need new stadiums. I have been to a New England game and it was good soccer, but the stadium was just too big despite the 13,000 fans there. Felt empty!

 

[IU Hawks fan]

Interesting to note that Kansas City, despite having small numbers, played to 99% capacity. Should see an improvement with their new soccer specific stadium opening this season. Also, Vancouver and Portland are already looking to average at least 16,000 with season ticket holders alone. Those teams will help increase overall attendance figures.

Seattle is just a monster, attendance wise. They are averaging more fans than a lot of European teams.

Dallas has a nice stadium, Pizza Hut Park, however it is located outside of Dallas and I have heard of some fans complaining about how far away the stadium is.

San Jose, New England, DC, and Chivas need new stadiums. I have been to a New England game and it was good soccer, but the stadium was just too big despite the 13,000 fans there. Felt empty!

I'm not a Fire fan but I guess I'll add in about their attendance.

They play in Bridgeview, a southwest suburb of Chicago in a pretty hispanic and Arab area. While it isn't far from downtown, only 15 miles, the soccer fans with money aren't from downtown, they are from the rich areas in the north and northwest suburbs. That trip can be at least an hour for those people, so they will never be able to bring a lot of the playing youth in, and have to rely on Hispanic and Polish crowd from that area/in the city.

 

[Brodie]

MLS' average attendance actually puts them in the top 15 for soccer leagues around the world. And they're very likely to move into the top 10 in the next few years with the new teams and stadiums.

 

[Kayak]

Actually, no.

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/blog/pu...ey-Gold-medal-ratings-huge-for?urn=nhl-224998


http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/20...watched-mens-world-cup-game-ever-in-u-s/55461

http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/20...cer-audience-in-history-of-19-4-million/55532

A combined US audience of 19.4 million average viewers for the USA-Ghana World Cup match on Saturday make it the largest US audience for a soccer match in history, topping the 1994 World Cup final match between Brazil and Italy.

 

[Morris Wanchuk]

Interesting to note that Kansas City, despite having small numbers, played to 99% capacity. Should see an improvement with their new soccer specific stadium opening this season. Also, Vancouver and Portland are already looking to average at least 16,000 with season ticket holders alone. Those teams will help increase overall attendance figures.

Seattle is just a monster, attendance wise. They are averaging more fans than a lot of European teams.

Dallas has a nice stadium, Pizza Hut Park, however it is located outside of Dallas and I have heard of some fans complaining about how far away the stadium is.

San Jose, New England, DC, and Chivas need new stadiums. I have been to a New England game and it was good soccer, but the stadium was just too big despite the 13,000 fans there. Felt empty!

Revolution are owned by the Kraft family.

Kraft family owns the Patriots and Gillette stadium.... so yea, new venue is not happening.

Also, Americans will not fork over NHL type ticket prices to see a league that is not the best in the world, and the MLS is far from the best. Teams from Portugal come over and thump them.

 

[krudmonk]

I'm an avid fan of both and I don't foresee it happening for a long time. I think most MLS fans are realistic in that regard. The MLS has done and is doing a ton to grow the league properly, but if there is a significant outside influence in this race, it perhaps has more to do with the European superclub debt than it does the NHL. Notice that star players who leave Madrid and Barcelona go to New York and Los Angeles, not Sevilla or Valencia.

Soccer and hockey don't really go head-to-head in North America as they appeal to similar demographics (not the drooling halfheads that regurgitate quips from Cowherd, Rome, etc.) and the season do not run concurrently.

And who couldn't predict MayDay getting mad about soccer again?

 

[MayDay]

And who couldn't predict MayDay getting mad about soccer again?

Where did I "get mad about soccer," exactly? Unless that you think the prediction that soccer is not going to overtake hockey is being anti-soccer.

Did you see my post at #63?

http://hfboards.com/showpost.php?p=30405973

I conceded that MLS is a growing league, but I don't think it's likely to displace the NHL's position, partly because the NHL is also growing, and partly because they are not really competing with each other or drawing fans from each other. One is an outdoor summer sport and the other is an indoor winter sport.

My prediction is that if soccer displaces any of the Big Four in the long-run (and I'm talking about maybe 50 years), it's most likely to be baseball, which seems to be in a long, gradual decline, with falling ratings, an older fanbase, and decreasing youth participation. I think if soccer is going to be pulling fans away from any of the others it's most likely to be baseball - both outdoor summer sports.

 

[Finnish your Czech]

Revolution are owned by the Kraft family.

Kraft family owns the Patriots and Gillette stadium.... so yea, new venue is not happening.

Also, Americans will not fork over NHL type ticket prices to see a league that is not the best in the world, and the MLS is far from the best. Teams from Portugal come over and thump them.

Oh no, the top teams in a to 6 or 7 league in the world beat teams in the MLS. Might as well just fold

 

[Brodie]

in the grand scheme of things it's important to remember that MLS is 15 years old. That it is where it's at is pretty amazing, predictions of American domination in 1995 notwithstanding. Soccer's growth in this country has always been about gradual change... from being a non-entity in my father's generation to a reasonably popular niche sport in mine and now a legitimate mainstream sport as my niece grows up. Give it 50 or 60 years and I think we'll see a very different MLS.

 

[nyrmetros]

I have no love for Bettman, but we're talking soccer here, the one sport that Canadians and Americans are united on...it's boring....

Which is why every city in Canada is clamoring for a MLS club..........

 

[nyrmetros]

MLS' major problem for the future isn't competing against the NHL, NBA, MLB, and NFL. It is that is is also competing against the Premier League and the other big European leagues that are already at similar level as the NHL. It is a global market and domestic viewership for soccer isn't limited to MLS. So far it seems audiences here have chosen the abroad leagues over MLS. I believe the early morning Premier League games ratings on ESPN2 about double up what ESPN2 gets for primetime MLS games. Obviously tv viewers have chosen to watch the top level abroad leagues over MLS. That puts MLS in a chicken and egg syndrome. They need to pay to attract top players and more importantly keep their top domestic players, but they don't have the revenue because people won't pay for the current product.

So yes the demographics for soccer in NA are improving, but those people are probably more likely to support and spend money on the abroad leagues than MLS. Unless a bunch of people just hate money are come in and are willing to poor in about 40-50 million per team in salaries per year that they won't get back it is going to be hard for MLS to make strides to the NHL level.

Think of it this way MLS is to the European soccer leagues like the European hockey leagues is to the NHL. The only difference is MLS has basically no history and no roots that make it harder for them to make gains.

As an avid NHL and MLS supporter, you are right. MLS years ago thought it was competing against the other American sports leagues. They recently figured out that is not the case. They are directly competing against the pro soccer leagues around the world, with the EPL being a primary. There is plenty of room to love both the NHL and MLS in the USA and Canada......

 

[nyrmetros]

Not sure if you remember the NASL of the 70s and 80s but, there were 24 teams all across the continent, they had Pele and other big stars, they played in CFL and NFL stadiums and...it all died in 1984.

Soccer, although quite popular among some living here, won't touch hockey revenues for decades if at all. For a league to have that kind of revenue generation, you need to have the best players in the world. MLS will never have that, why would the world's best players leave Europe? Even the Beckham experiment fizzled and died after the first season.

FYI........... the Beckham experiment has actually worked out for MLS...... Think about all the DP players who are now in MLS after Beckham came over. Sky Sports News in England actually has MLS updates, something they never had before Becks. The "experiment" has more intangibles than one thinks.......

 

[nyrmetros]

Definitely.

I really don't understand the irrational hate for Bettman.

The NHL lost Winnipeg, Quebec, Hartford, and the NorthStars under his watch.

 

[nyrmetros]

I'm a 2nd generation American, and it's mostly soccer and hockey for me. About 12-15 years ago I used to watch the English premier league a lot (and MLS somewhat). I even adopted Arsenal as my favorite team and was crazy about them for a while. But after few years it all started to seem hallow. I realized I don't have a real connection to the league based in another continent. I don't really care about Highbury, London playing against teams from Liverpool, Leeds etc. or about Dennis Bergkamp and Emanuelle Petit. Those I started to feel more connection with were the likes of Brian McBride, Eric Wynalda, and my hometown New York playing against Washington, DC, Chicago, etc. etc. MLS started to feel more and more like my league, playing right in my backyard. There's nothing like cheering for my local team live, although I still follow European soccer here and there.

Glad you get it. I've noticed quite a lot of people I now have been "getting it" recently. Most of my friends who like soccer used to be diehard EPL fans, but then they came to the same conclusion as you did. "MLS started to feel more and more like my league, playing right in my backyard. There's nothing like cheering for my local team live".... that's what it's all about...