Will Hockey bounce back?

[Hunter74]

I was wondering if people think the NHL will bounce back to what it was? IF yes how long will it take? If it does bounce back were is it most likely to bounce back first?

I know I am prertty happy its all practically done. But today I feel pretty pissed that I had to go an entire winter without. I am sure there are alot of fans out there that feel the same way but mightof found better things to do with there time.

People talk about how much work they need to do to try and bring upset fans back but this is thw NHL and they dont ever do anything for there faithfull except dump on us. For almost a year the PA has pretty much been saying they dont give a **** what the fans think of them and this lockout. But now its all about sucking up and all that.

I love hockey and I will most likely be back but I am not that sure to what level or when I will really come back. Maybe I will never be a fan to the level I was before. Just wondering how many people would be in the same situation. Seems that the NHL doesn't really think the impact of the lockout is gonna be that severe as they still projected revuneues to be at $1.7 or $1.9billion. Message boards arent a real good indicator of what average fans think as most message board guys/gals are for the most part alittle more hard core.

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[Boltsfan2029]

Looks like we're off to a fairly good start in Tampa...

The Lightning reported nearly $400,000 in season-ticket and mini-plan sales, plus another $100,000 in luxury suite sales on Thursday, the day after the National Hockey League confirmed owners and players had reached a new labor deal.

That article predicts the entire lower bowl & club level will be sold out to season ticket holders.

 

[Tb0ne]

Some places it won't miss a step, the arena's will be filled on opening night. Obviously some markets wont' be in that situation, but I think people will be suprised how dedicated hardcore hockey fans are. Viewership on TV will be less right off the bat if what I'm hearing from pissed off fans is any indication. Many people are trying to tell themselves that they won't watch, but they will cave eventually. People are for the most part, sheep, they can't resist going with the crowd for any length of time.

My guess is 2-3 seasons to rebuild attendence in the non traditional markets, much less in others. 3-4 years to rebuild viewership on TV, possibly less if the on ice product really improves as much as they want it too.

One thing I think could kill any momentum though, is more expansion, especially in the next 5 years. Hockey shouldn't expand until it expands its talent pool to draft from, which as far as I know, they simply are not doing. They need to grow the game of hockey worldwide, because not only will it benefit with more talent in the NHL, it will also go a long ways to making the game more international, instead of a competition between 6 countries (In the Olympics, World Cup, etc).

 

[Winger98]

Personally, I don't think we're going to see much change at all from numbers pre-lockout. Why? Because the NHL doesn't have the "average" fan to turn away. It's not because the sport is any more addicting than any other sport, or any such reason, it just wasn't popular enough to have all that many fair weather fans, imo, except in Canada, but I have a hard time seeing Canadians turn their back on hockey (though americans did with baseball, so who knows?).

I think the markets that were bad before will continue to be bad and the markets that were good will be good again, and the only thing that will really change that is the rise and fall of franchises to and from contention.

 

[PecaFan]

Hey, somebody stole my routine. Winger98, I've been saying that exact thing for a couple of months now. It's going to be pretty much business as usual come September.

 

[Sixty Six]

Hey, somebody stole my routine. Winger98, I've been saying that exact thing for a couple of months now. It's going to be pretty much business as usual come September.

same here, i agree w/ you both

 

[PredsFan77*]

It isn't a question of will it, but rather how high will it bounce. Given the impact of the situation and the fact that the force of gravity is 9.81 m/s^2, I would imagine that the bounce will be somewhere relative to the size of Sidney Crosby's left testie multiplied by the square root of the time in microseconds that it takes for Zoidberg to make a post in this thread.

 

[kasper11]

I think hockey will eventually bounce back, but they will need something big, somebody to have a Gretzky type season. Think baseball when Ripken broke the record, then the homerun record fell. Those types of season-long compelling stories draw fans in.

 

[Hunter74]

Personally, I don't think we're going to see much change at all from numbers pre-lockout. Why? Because the NHL doesn't have the "average" fan to turn away. It's not because the sport is any more addicting than any other sport, or any such reason, it just wasn't popular enough to have all that many fair weather fans, imo, except in Canada, but I have a hard time seeing Canadians turn their back on hockey (though americans did with baseball, so who knows?).

I think the markets that were bad before will continue to be bad and the markets that were good will be good again, and the only thing that will really change that is the rise and fall of franchises to and from contention.

So in a sense b/c the NHL wasn't big in America they havent really pissed anyone off there except maybe die hards. So unlike Baseball were tehy had tons of fans to make mad the NHL didn't have tons of fans to make mad so they are kinda just startign off were they were before teh lockout. Nobody really cared so no one should be upset at tehm.

In Canada it seems like everyoen is expecting Canadian hockey fans to just come back in the numbers they were in and just as enthusiastic. Everyone seems to think that Canadian hockey fans are mad but they love the sport so much they wont not come b/c they cant help it. I know wiht a couple of teams season ticket holders have to renew or they will lose there seats and be placed back in the lineup but what about other teams?

In Canada there are tons of fair wether fans thats show up. Look at the playoffs for an example.

It just seems like everyone is taking the Canadian hockey fans for granted. We can dump on you guys all we want b/c this is hockey and you fans have no chioce but to come to the games b/c its our Canadian past time. It would be nice to see Canadian fans not show up to games for a few weeks or even a couple of months just to scare the crap out of the Owners and Players. Maybe this way the NHL will actually start to promote itself and start treated there die hard fans alittle better.

 

[Tekneek]

We need to see a lot of players getting over 100 points a season again. Drop the dumb instigator rule and drop the automatic game misconduct for 3 fighting majors in one game.

 

[jacketracket*]

For almost a year the PA has pretty much been saying they dont give a **** what the fans think of them and this lockout. But now its all about sucking up and all that.

The owners didn't have a part in this, too?

 

[jacketracket*]

It isn't a question of will it, but rather how high will it bounce. Given the impact of the situation and the fact that the force of gravity is 9.81 m/s^2, I would imagine that the bounce will be somewhere relative to the size of Sidney Crosby's left testie multiplied by the square root of the time in microseconds that it takes for Zoidberg to make a post in this thread.

... you forgot to factor in the coefficient of friction faced by the big markets, as they drag along all of the "unworthy" small markets ...

 

[SPARTAKUS*]

Hey, somebody stole my routine. Winger98, I've been saying that exact thing for a couple of months now. It's going to be pretty much business as usual come September.

I agree too. Futhermore I believe with the new economic system it

will bring the NHL to new heights. Now fans of all 30 markets will

have a reason to believe that their team have a chance to be

successful on and off the ice. And knowing that they team is here to

stay.

 

[Riddarn]

Bounce back? I wasn't aware of that it had bounced back from the 94 lockout..

 

[futurcorerock]

It'll bounce back.

The same people are saying that the NHL will fail also say Major League Baseball has seen the worst of it's troubles, NASCAR is a legitimate sport.

 

[BigE]

I'd like to think so and support for my feeling is echoed by a few in the media who have already pointed out that "back" isn't really much of anything in the first place. A lot of people that followed hockey before the lockout were die-hard fans. There won't be a problem in getting them back, it's the 'casual fan' (becoming such a cliche in the last few weeks) that they need to worry about.

I think a better question is will they be able to grow the sport and the league to the point where revenues and player percentages can increase. That, at this time, seems to be the billion dollar question.

 

[bladoww]

Mark my words, it'll bounce back. Infact, I think before too long we'll see a huge increase in TV deals, advertisements, endoresements, etc. Everyone remembers when the NHL was hot and the NBA was not. It'll happen.

 

[SENSational]

Mark my words, it'll bounce back. Infact, I think before too long we'll see a huge increase in TV deals, advertisements, endoresements, etc. Everyone remembers when the NHL was hot and the NBA was not. It'll happen.

 

[bladeNYR]

Bounce back? I wasn't aware of that it had bounced back from the 94 lockout..

That's because it hasn't.

 

[Scoogs]

It's kind of innaccurate to say that since Americans turned away from MLB when it went on strike, Canadians will do the same with hockey.

The simple fact being is that the Americans had and still have something to turn to. Most markets have an NBA/NFL/NHL franchise close by.

Are people in... Edmonton or Calgary for example, going to turn away to the NBA?

Not likely.

 

[Hunter74]

The owners didn't have a part in this, too?

I disagree the Owners unlike the players made quite an effort on the PR side of the lockout. Bettman was apologizing to the fans and Goodenow was pretty much telling us to go f*** ourselves. How many times did you hear from the PA side that they dont really care what teh fans think? Maybe the owners felt the same way but they kept there mouths shut. There were some players that felt bad for teh fans and other people who's business relied on hockey but for the majority they didn't give a ****.

But it took two to create this lockout so in that sense they are both abounch of jerks.

 

[Hunter74]

It's kind of innaccurate to say that since Americans turned away from MLB when it went on strike, Canadians will do the same with hockey.

The simple fact being is that the Americans had and still have something to turn to. Most markets have an NBA/NFL/NHL franchise close by.

Are people in... Edmonton or Calgary for example, going to turn away to the NBA?

Not likely.

True there arent any other major sports in those cities but there are other things to do wiht your time besides sports. Maybe instead of going out to watch pro sports they spend more time with the family or go out to a movie. Maybe instead of watching the Leafs on TV they watch Basketball or Baseball. Those are legit options for people.

Fact of the matter is Canadian hockey fans are being taken for granted and expected to fill the arena's on opening night despite this stupid lockout.

 

[Tekneek]

Hockey fans may have found out they can enjoy following Major Junior or some other Junior level of hockey. They may have found that they could spend their money, previously spent on the NHL, in some other way that allows them more family entertainment for their dollars. MLB doesn't compete directly with any major team sports, but they still lost their fanbase. They lost it to everything else that competes for the entertainment dollar in every city in North America. It will help the NHL that it is active during a time when people are forced to spend more time inside, but that alone may not get them every dollar they previously did. Part of the backlash against MLB was the lack of a World Series. The NHL did not award Lord Stanley's Cup. Maybe people don't care too much about it, or maybe they do.

This is all speculation. I think the NHL is going to have trouble if they think just coming back is going to be good enough without throwing some bones to even their most devoted fans. Time will tell if I am right or the rest of you are right.

 

[kdb209]

Hockey fans may have found out they can enjoy following Major Junior or some other Junior level of hockey. They may have found that they could spend their money, previously spent on the NHL, in some other way that allows them more family entertainment for their dollars. MLB doesn't compete directly with any major team sports, but they still lost their fanbase. They lost it to everything else that competes for the entertainment dollar in every city in North America. It will help the NHL that it is active during a time when people are forced to spend more time inside, but that alone may not get them every dollar they previously did. Part of the backlash against MLB was the lack of a World Series. The NHL did not award Lord Stanley's Cup. Maybe people don't care too much about it, or maybe they do.

This is all speculation. I think the NHL is going to have trouble if they think just coming back is going to be good enough without throwing some bones to even their most devoted fans. Time will tell if I am right or the rest of you are right.

It is a great myth that the '94 MLB strike and the cancelled World Series had a long term impact on MLB - and that it didn't recover untill the magic Mark and Sammy show of '98. It's a great story, unfortunately it ain't true.

1993 and 1994 were abberations. The addition of the expansion Marlins and especially the Rockies (who played '93 and '94 in the much larger Mile High before moving into Coors Field in '95) provided a non realistic bump in attendance. By '96 MLB was back at it's pre expanion level and by '97 it had significantly exceeded it - all before the Mark and Sammy show. MLB attendance has stayed remarkably steady since then - topping 30K/game last year.

MLB 1990 2,105 54,823,768 26,045
MLB 1991 2,104 56,813,760 27,003
MLB 1992 2,106 55,870,466 26,529
MLB 1993 2,269 70,257,938 30,964
MLB 1994 1,600 50,010,016 31,256
MLB 1995 2,017 50,469,236 25,022
MLB 1996 2,267 60,097,381 26,510
MLB 1997 2,266 63,168,689 27,877
MLB 1998 2,430 70,601,147 29,054
MLB 1999 2,428 70,139,380 28,888

MLB 2000 2,429 71,358,907 29,378
MLB 2001 2,429 72,581,101 29,881
MLB 2002 2,397 67,390,074 28,114
MLB 2003 2,411 67,630,489 28,051
MLB 2004 2,400 72,968,953 30,404

 

[Stephen]

The NHL is going to be the same mediocre product it was before. Nothing will change.