Speculation: Will Derek Stepan be a Frank J. Selke Trophy winner in his career?

[SlapshotTheMovie]

Offensively he isn't putting up the numbers he did last year. However Every game I am finding myself super impressed on a lot of his takeaways and key defensive plays like stick lifts and tipping passes. He isn't their yet but he is also in his early 20's. In 3-5 seasons I imagine he will be in the running or be getting that honor.

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[Let Blaine Die]

Offensively he isn't putting up the numbers he did last year. However Every game I am finding myself super impressed on a lot of his takeaways and key defensive plays like stick lifts and tipping passes. He isn't their yet but he is also in his early 20's. In 3-5 seasons I imagine he will be in the running or be getting that honor.

Needs to improve his faceoff skills big time.

 

[SlapshotTheMovie]

Needs to improve his faceoff skills big time.

agreed... but it took Mess a long time to be great at face offs. I am sure next year you will see much better faceoff numbers fro Step and again the next year until it levels out.

 

[ecemleafs]

hes got the ability. last year he was among the best defensive forwards in the league and put up the points necessary to win it these days. its a reputation award so he will need a few years of consistently being considered among the top defensive forwards to have a chance at winning it. he definitely needs to get his FO percentage above 50 percent though.

 

[Raspewtin]

Him being bad at faceoffs really hurts him.

That and he's not a big name yet. There is a bias towards bigger name players. Last year Callahan finished 8h in voting IIRC. Pascal Dupuis finished 7th. Stepan finished 9th. Stepan was one of the top defensive players in the league last year. Definitely better than Dupuis, at the very least.

 

[mrhockey193195]

I see Step being top three at some point in his career, with a chance at taking a Selke home. I know he struggled a lot this season, but the defensive play I saw from him last year was absolutely sensational. He has it in him.

But I do agree with everyone else, he will definitely need to improve FOs first.

 

[Bullseyes]

As others have said, he needs to improve at face offs. He's also going to have to produce at a higher level than he is right now.

He played at that level last season though. He does need to become a bigger "name" if he wants to get it because it's a reputation award. That's why Callahan finished ahead of him despite Stepan easily being better defensively (and offensively seeing how they give out the award) than him last season.

 

[Greg02]

Him being bad at faceoffs really hurts him.

That and he's not a big name yet. There is a bias towards bigger name players. Last year Callahan finished 8h in voting IIRC. Pascal Dupuis finished 7th. Stepan finished 9th. Stepan was one of the top defensive players in the league last year. Definitely better than Dupuis, at the very least.

It's funny how Pascal Dupuis, who seemed like a career third liner, was traded by us for Alex Bouret, and plays in small market Pittsburgh, is a bigger name than Derek Stepan, the top line center for the biggest team in America's largest city.

Crosby effect.

 

[The Perfect Paradox]

For reference, the Selke winners since the '05 lockout:

Year Name Age Team G A Pts
2012-13 NHL Jonathan Toews 24 CHI C 23 25 48
2011-12 NHL Patrice Bergeron 26 BOS C 22 42 64
2010-11 NHL Ryan Kesler 26 VAN C 41 32 73
2009-10 NHL Pavel Datsyuk 31 DET C 27 43 70
2008-09 NHL Pavel Datsyuk 30 DET C 32 65 97
2007-08 NHL Pavel Datsyuk 29 DET C 31 66 97
2006-07 NHL Rod Brind'Amour 36 CAR C 26 56 82
2005-06 NHL Rod Brind'Amour 35 CAR C 31 39 70

We know from last season and from brief moments this season that Stepan definitely has the defensive game for the trophy. IMO last season Stepan's defensive game was elite. He has been too inconsistent this season to indicate whether or not he can sustain that level of high play. I'm beginning to question if his lack of consistency is in part due to the new defensive system deployed by Vigneault.

His offensive game is going to be the biggest hurdle. He would probably need to score more than 60 points to get serious consideration. He's still young and put up over 50 two seasons ago. We saw last season that he was capable of putting up more (even though the sample size is a little too small for my liking). Just like his defensive game, it is all going to come down to consistency. He's not superbly skilled in any facet of his offensive games and relies on his "smarts". Players of his type often start out inconsistent, and either stay in this mindset or eventually develop the mental fortitude to deliver results continually.

As others have mentioned, he will need to become a "big name player" which will only come with time. Toews has been the youngest player to win since the '05 lockout and he was only 24. However, someone with his kind of accomplishments in the playoffs most certainly garners attention more quickly than a player with Stepan who has not been as far in the playoffs and is on a mediocre roster.

With all of that said, a Selke is definitely a realistic possibility within the next four or five years. The sooner he finds some consistency the sooner he will become a serious contender for the award.