Prospect Info: Will Borgen (2015, 92nd) – '17-18: Signed ELC, Reporting To Rochester
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TheMistyStranger
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- May 21, 2005
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Ok, so how about since Linus Ullmark has a career save percentage of 9.11, for every 100 shots Borgen blocks you count that as 9 goals.
jc17
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There have been a number of NHL d-men that have produced at a similar level to borgen, but I'd say the vast majority of them are bottom pairing guys, 7th D types. So Borgen's production or lack thereof doesnt mean he wont be an NHL defenseman that can contribute, but I think there is some truth in the statement that most guys who excel in the NHL can produce a little more in the AHL just due to being slightly more skilled.
Old Navy Goat
Registered User
Typically he would have more points due to PP production on an average AHL team but the Amerks loaded up on offensive dmen. Hard to produce a ton of points when you PK and draw the hardest defensive assignments.
How many legit D are there in the league (that are actual assets to their teams... not liabilities) that played in the AHL at 23 and had numbers as low as Borgen?
Old Navy Goat
Registered User
Define a liability. Is a 5/6D that gives you 15+min a night, and PKs a liability? Is that high scoring AHL D that you can only give o-zone starts and PP time a liability?
If you go through the rosters you'll find quite a few college trained dmen that play significant roles and never produced many points in the AHL. Of course they don't produce many points in the NHL but are trusted to help their goalies avoid sunburn from the goal light.
I've gone through about 8 NHL teams so far and the only rostered player I can find that produced anywhere close to Borgen's level in the AHL is Scott Mayfield from the Islanders. He still outproduced Borgen though, but it's somewhat close. I have no idea about the guy though on whether he's any good.
I also went back through Sabres history and looked at our shutdown / defense first guys over the years and they're all way ahead of Borgen. The closest is Pysyk who got 17pts in 54 games at that age.
There are legions upon legions of AHL defensemen that scored at his Borgen's rate and never got past the A. Based on what I've seen so far, I'm putting it as less than 5% that Borgen could ever play effectively in the NHL.
I also went back through Sabres history and looked at our shutdown / defense first guys over the years and they're all way ahead of Borgen. The closest is Pysyk who got 17pts in 54 games at that age.
There are legions upon legions of AHL defensemen that scored at his Borgen's rate and never got past the A. Based on what I've seen so far, I'm putting it as less than 5% that Borgen could ever play effectively in the NHL.
Zman5778
Moderator
If Borgen becomes Scott Mayfield, we are freaking golden.
Mayfield is pretty much the definition of a stay-at-home 2nd/3rd pair guy. He'll eat about 20 min per night and is a primary PKer. Plus/minus isn't always the greatest stat, but he was tied for the lead among Islanders Dmen at +8 (tied with Pulock). He'll never be an offensive juggernaut, but he's a solid, steady guy.
AustonsNostrils
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I have always liked Borgen and couldn't care less if he scores a goal in the NHL, he is a good skater, he is strong and defends well, and most importantly he plays with some grit. He will fight and he can handle himself in a fight.
Stick him with Dahlin in pre-season, let Dahlin do his thing and Borgen stay at home and occasionally beat up guys who take liberties with Dahlin.
Stick him with Dahlin in pre-season, let Dahlin do his thing and Borgen stay at home and occasionally beat up guys who take liberties with Dahlin.
The point is the likelihood is extremely low. Mayfield was the closest player to Borgen and still outproduced him. If 7 other teams had no player even close to as low as Borgen, the writing is on the wall.
That's a pretty good comparable, actually. Hjalmarsson is another guy who never really scored at any level but is an extremely valuable defenseman. He scored more than Borgen in the A, but not by much ( approximately 0.3 ppg vs. 0.19 ppg).
As you pointed out, these guys are extremely rare, and in general, such a pronounced lack of production is a red flag for any prospect. Having said that, I can buy an argument that his usage kept his numbers lower than these comparables, since Rochester was stacked with really good (in some cases, NHL-calibre) D.
At this point, in terms of his value as a prospect, the new GM does not have the luxury of trying to "figure out" if he can do it with another year in the AHL. He is just on the cusp of going from "having potential" to "career AHL player," so if he's not going to make the NHL roster, he needs to be traded to a team that will overvalue the eye-test things he does well (traditionally, the Buffalo Sabres have been that organization - but, maybe they're moving away from that now). We can only hope that the new management team has the numbers and knows what they mean, so that they can make the right decision now. I could definitely see another organization out there valuing him as an add-in to a larger trade, so if the new GM wants to try to acquire a 2C, Borgen is one of the guys who might end up part of that.
Personally, I like Borgen more than any of the fail-D drafted by the Botterill regime, and I would first be trying to divest my organization of guys like Samuelsson and Johnson before we get the inevitable visual and statistical confirmation that they're bad. But, I guess we'll see!
Who cares. A strong skating defensive dman is exactly what this team needs on the 3rd pairing. I don’t care how many points he gets. Every dman these days is hailed as a puck moving wizard yet most of them don’t live up to the billing. Give me a big, physical, defensive aware dman that stays in his lane and allays a simple game.
TheMistyStranger
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CrazyPsycho
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Just because he doesnt score alot of points doesnt necessarily mean hes good at defense. Our system is so thin we think Borgen is a good prospect. At the very best outcome hes a 6/7 imo.
Buffaloed
webmaster
There's the usual spiel from the Sabres talking up his offensive potential but I think this summarizes him best:
Sabres prospect Will Borgen enjoys being 'hard guy to play against'
One scout who has watched Borgen regularly throughout his pro career called him a “big, strong, physical, stay-at-home defenseman.”
He "is a good skater and is hard to play against but does not bring a lot of offense or creativity from the back end,” the scout said. “He will keep other teams’ players honest and on their toes.”
Considering Borgen rarely displays much flash, other Sabres defense prospects and even an Amerks veteran often overshadow him.
This is why he has an excellent chance to make the Sabres:
What GM Jason Botterill's firing could mean for Sabres coach Ralph Krueger
Jakob Kolliker, an assistant coach under Krueger from 1997-2010, told The Buffalo News that Krueger selected his roster based on specific roles rather than taking the country's most talented players.
"He takes hard positions," Kolliker said. "He doesn’t take the best players, he takes the players he knows they’ll do the job he wants. He doesn’t take the best scorers. Ralph likes the good character guys in the team and the hard workers for the team. Not necessarily the best players but the best working, hard-working players. That’s Ralph. He’s good to reach these people."
Krueger also takes pride in his ability to sense when a player is not accepting a role and won't accept anyone deviating from his vision. He was quick to bench Sabres this season, including Colin Miller, Zach Bogosian and Evan Rodrigues.
Sabres prospect Will Borgen enjoys being 'hard guy to play against'
One scout who has watched Borgen regularly throughout his pro career called him a “big, strong, physical, stay-at-home defenseman.”
He "is a good skater and is hard to play against but does not bring a lot of offense or creativity from the back end,” the scout said. “He will keep other teams’ players honest and on their toes.”
Considering Borgen rarely displays much flash, other Sabres defense prospects and even an Amerks veteran often overshadow him.
This is why he has an excellent chance to make the Sabres:
What GM Jason Botterill's firing could mean for Sabres coach Ralph Krueger
Jakob Kolliker, an assistant coach under Krueger from 1997-2010, told The Buffalo News that Krueger selected his roster based on specific roles rather than taking the country's most talented players.
"He takes hard positions," Kolliker said. "He doesn’t take the best players, he takes the players he knows they’ll do the job he wants. He doesn’t take the best scorers. Ralph likes the good character guys in the team and the hard workers for the team. Not necessarily the best players but the best working, hard-working players. That’s Ralph. He’s good to reach these people."
Krueger also takes pride in his ability to sense when a player is not accepting a role and won't accept anyone deviating from his vision. He was quick to bench Sabres this season, including Colin Miller, Zach Bogosian and Evan Rodrigues.
CrazyPsycho
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Fjordy
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Not in defense of Krueger, but you remember our roster this season, there was no one to choose from.
Buffaloed
webmaster
They probably make the playoffs if Sobotka hadn't been injured.
