Will a d-man win the Art Ross again anytime soon?

[super6646]

Bit more sane than my goalie winning the Art Ross thread lmao. Now it hasn’t happened since Bobby Orr in the 70s, though Erik karlsson did come somewhat close in 2015-16 with a top 5 finish. That being said, do you guys think a dman could win the art Ross any time soon? I don’t want to say ever because it’s likely someone will come around, but say for this scenario within the next 10-15 years. If so, which dman do you guys think has the best shot at it rn?

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[Byron Bitz]

Probably not

 

[Regal]

Karlsson was close on the leaderboard but was also 24 points behind. I just can't see it happening unless it's a crazy big year while also a very down year for forwards. If Karlsson had his season the year before, he would have only been 5 points behind Benn. A bit more puck luck and it could have been possible. With current league scoring I can't see any defenseman getting 110+ points, but maybe someone like Makar could get 100 in a huge year where all the usual suspects get hurt.

 

[nowhereman]

It would be very, very difficult. If anyone was to do it, it would be one of Hughes, Makar or maybe Dahlin but I don't see any of them ever putting up a 110+ point season. Absolutely everything would have to go right.

 

[DropTheGloves]

I think it’s safe to say the player capable of that is not in the league right now. However, since “soon” is defined as 10-15 years, I guess there’s a chance some 8-12 year old exists with Orr-like potential... but with the way young phenoms are found so early these days, that window is probably closing pretty fast. Aron Kiviharju maybe has a shot at being generational but who knows.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Tough to see, extremely tough. There are so many super talented forwards in the league right now. To imagine a D-man outscoring all of them in 1 season is really tough.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

no, never. A d-man will never score 100 points again either

 

[jetsforever]

Benn won the Ross with 87 points, it's possible for a dman to exceed that but unlikely it would coincide with a down year for forwards
It shouldn't happen any time soon.
(could be likelier this season with a smaller number of games though)

 

[ricky0034]

pretty unlikely

it would probably take a perfect storm of something like a peak Karlsson+a bit more help around them while still being the centerpiece of it all+a weak Art Ross year for it to happen

obviously the odds of all of those things happening in tandem aren't very good in any given year,it'll probably happen at some point but I wouldn't go so far as to say "soon"

 

[BB06]

Hughes next year. Bet the house!

 

[super6646]

Btw I'm voting yes because I want to believe it. Also with how dynamic Hughes and Makar and Dahlin and others look I think it could happen even if it's super unlikely.

 

[Satoru Gojo]

Btw I'm voting yes because I want to believe it. Also with how dynamic Hughes and Makar and Dahlin and others look I think it could happen even if it's super unlikely.

If those guys played from 2012-2016 when scoring was down then maybe? With the forward talent now though and higher scoring not a chance

 

[TeddyBare]

Cale Makar could get 100 points
but he won't win the art ross

just sky-rocket his totals on a deadly power play with Mackinnon, Rantanen and co.

Something similar to Brian Leetch who was the last guy to do it
55 pp
45 EV

 

[CanadianSniper]

Not a chance. If Makar has 100 points, it's because MacKinnon has 130+.

 

[AB13]

Dahlin and Hughes probably have PPG offensive ceilings, but maybe not enough to win the Art Ross.

 

[Skolman]

Cale Makar could get 100 points
but he won't win the art ross

just sky-rocket his totals on a deadly power play with Mackinnon, Rantanen and co.

Something similar to Brian Leetch who was the last guy to do it
55 pp
45 EV

I'd be very surprised if Makar ever hits 90 points, let alone 100.

 

[bobholly39]

The problem is when kids get into hockey and they're super talented - you don't put them at defense, you put them at offense to go score. Most of the generational guys like Crosby/Ovi/McDavid are always forwards - and often centers.

As good as Makar/Hughes etc are (and they look extremely good) - none of them are in the mold of Crosby/McDavid/Ovi. And it would take at least such a talent to win a ross - combined with a weaker year for forwards.

Put a McDavid level defenseman in the league - maybe he wins a Ross in an off year (and none of the last 3 years were off years for forwards, so it's rare).

Karlsson is great - he's not Orr - but he's probably in the very short list of guys right behimd him for offensive peak. And - he had the good fortune of peaking in 1-2 seasons where the offensive stars performances were a bit weak. Despite that - he never even came close to winning a ross.

 

[MardyBum]

Nah, the only young offensive dmen capable of it currently play on teams with better F's that score more points.

 

[SouthWest]

Only plausible scenario I could see it happening is if, lets say Makar, was having a career year with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen at the same time, but both of the forwards miss 20 games at different points in the season as well as the other top scorers missing at least some time throughout the year.

you could maybe end up with something like this:


GP-P
Makar 82-92
Mcdavid 70-91
MacKinnon 60-90
Draisaitl 72-88
Rantanen 60-87
Panarin 75-86

 

[tarheelhockey]

Devil's advocate:

While it's pretty obvious that there's nobody poised to do this, and that the only guy who has done it before was a once-in-a-lifetime talent, it's conceivable that it could happen again in the next decade.

The reason being, we are seeing the theory of hockey move away from rigid definitions of each position. More and more, coaches are emphasizing that players are simply acting within roles and spaces. And there's also a huge shift toward shot creation rather than shot suppression, particularly for talented contending teams.

Soooo... it's conceivable that pretty soon we could see a Karlsson/Coffey type defenseman come into the league and land on a team that allows him to activate as more of a rover who simply plays higher in the zone than the forwards. While technically labeled a defenseman, his main role would be closer to that of a trailing center, and that means a lot of touches. A skilled player with strong teammates would rack up a lot of points in that dynamic, which is why Coffey was routinely top-5 in assists. Now imagine if that player is also a very good shooter.

It would take the right player landing in the right place at the right time, but I do think it could happen in the foreseeable future with the direction the game is going.

 

[cowboy82nd]

Not unless he lead the league in points. I think that is all some voters look at.

 

[JoVel]

Not unless he lead the league in points. I think that is all some voters look at.

You're saying a d-man won't win an Art Ross unless he leads the league in points...? Talk about a hot take.

 

[Video Nasty]

I voted no, but that's for the near future (10-20 years).

Anything can happen with a perfect storm of the right talent, top forwards missing significant time, and rule changes/efforts to increase scoring ala the NFL and NBA.

 

[GreeningOil]

I'd be very surprised if Makar ever hits 90 points, let alone 100.

I would be surprised at 80+
Let’s remember who has done that in the last few years...

 

[Regal]

I would be surprised at 80+
Let’s remember who has done that in the last few years...

Scoring has gone up quite a bit though. Karlsson's 82 point season is roughly equivalent to a 100 point season based on league scoring the past 2 years