Why the CBA won't be ratified.

Discussion in 'Fugu's Business of Hockey Forum' started by 666, Jul 7, 2005.

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  1. 666

    666 Registered User

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    The rumored deal is 54% of 1.8B or 32.4M per team. Some will be higher some will be lower but lets work with $32.5M.

    $4.5M:star first line C
    $4.0M:star goalie:
    $3.0M:1st dman
    $2.5M:2nd dman
    2.50M:1st line RW
    2.50M:1st line LW

    We've spent $19M and we have one line and a goalie with $13.5M left and 17 guys to sign.

    2.5M:2nd line C
    1.5M:2nd line RW
    1.5M:2nd line LW
    1.5M:2nd d pair
    1.0M:2nd d pair
    1.1M:a goon or mucker

    4.4M:11 Guys at the league minimum of $400k.

    32.5M:total

    Top guy only gets $4.5M so you can't take money from the top guys and give it to the minimum guys.
    Of course this gets a bit better for the top teams. Depending on rumours it can get about $7M better. That's not much considering the top guys might get up to $6M and even up to 20% of $39M=$7.8M. But along with that we have the teams that can't even reach $32M. What about the teams at the floor of $24M?

    The result:

    48% of the players at league minimum.
    70% of all players under $1.5M

    CBA fails player ratification 75:25

    666
     
  2. mooseOAK*

    mooseOAK* Guest

    Next step after turning the deal down, the players are presented with a worse offer. Then they can all find other leagues where they can get a better one.
     
  3. Duff88

    Duff88 Registered User

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    If the deal is not ratified, the league and players will lose all credibility and fans they had left.
     
  4. LPHabsFan

    LPHabsFan Registered User

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    If this doesn't get ratified, say goodbye to the NHL. Plain and simple. There is no other league that in the world that can sustain salaries anywhere near what the NHL can sustain. Yes there are maybe a couple of teams in russia that can afford to pay the type of salaries under the old cba but no league as a whole can. If they would decide not to ratify, they would be doing the dumbest thing anyone has ever done in the history of sports and probably business as well. It's very simple, if it goes longer than this, sponsors drop out, and there goes a substantial chunk of revenue. If they ever want to play hockey in the NHL again, they will ratify it. If not, I can see teams just dropping out of the NHL left and right.
     
  5. SENSible1*

    SENSible1* Guest

    And the players alternative is????
     
  6. Lorenzo1000

    Lorenzo1000 Registered User

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    Players vote 75% no 25% yes= salary of $0.00
     
  7. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    Well if it isn't ratified, I look forward to Tie Domi serving me my morning coffee.
     
  8. ryz

    ryz Registered User

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    Exactly. If the CBA isn't ratified the players will be so villified in the public eye that a good number of them should never show their faces in Canada again. If this isn't ratified the PA will dissolve and owners will be holding open tryouts to fill the rosters........ and a large number of NHLers will be in those camps.
     
  9. Free Edler

    Free Edler Enjoy retirement, boys.

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    Now, let's be fair. I'd pay Todd Bertuzzi, Ed Jovanovski and Dan Cloutier a fair wage to pave my driveway, although $8.50/hr is hardly NHL money.. ;)
     
  10. DaveMatthew

    DaveMatthew Registered User

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    And not every team has a star goalie that'll command 4 million, or a star center that'll command 4.5 million.
     
  11. Jester

    Jester Registered User

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    i'm not all into the labor law... but what is the deal if a deal negotiated by union representation is then shot down by the rank and file? my guess is that the union would simply cease to exist at that point...
     
  12. You live in Surrey...do you even have a driveway?
    :biglaugh:
     
  13. SuperUnknown

    SuperUnknown Registered User

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    The funniest thing is that if all teams spend to the cap ($37M), then the players will have to pay back with the escrow account 13% of their salaries to the owners, which would make the effective cap $32.5M.
     
  14. jb**

    jb** Guest

    Pretty good points made, what options do they have however? Not that many. Star players will always make their share. This will probably mean that players will be playing for teams that they really may not want to. Assuming that they rejected this deal, would the league fold? Would they start from sratch? would the owners of the big market clubs try to start another league with say 12-15 teams?
     
  15. zeke

    zeke #freeVladdy

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    Yes, there will be many more players at or near the league minimum under a cap than there was otherwise.

    Of course, if they kept the old minimum of $185k, then there wouldn't be a problem...because then players making $400k and $500k would be making significantly more than the minimium, even though it's the same amount of money.

    It's just a semantics issue.

    It doesn't matter that it's "the league minimum" or whatever, it's the dollars and cents that matter.

    The same amount of guys that were making about $500k under the old agreement will be making it under the new agreement, it's just now the league minimum is higher, allowing some people to describe these salaries in a negative way.
     
  16. SPARTAKUS*

    SPARTAKUS* Guest

    Firts of all the cap will be at 37 millions not 32.5 and the players will vote in favor of this deal no doubt in my mind. The players have nothing to gain by turning it down. This the deal
     
  17. Mr Sakich

    Mr Sakich Registered User

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    nope, the union still exists but the bargaining committee is replaced. Then you start all over.
     
  18. Macman

    Macman Registered User

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    I can't see it not being ratified, but the scenario you laid out in terms of team structure is probably pretty accurate. Teams will eat up half their cap on a handful of players and fill in the rest. You're either going to see very proud guys humbled completely and playing for a fraction of what they did before, or more minor leaguers in the NHL than at any time since the birth of the WHA. I'm guessing it'll be a bit of both.

    Caps might work in football, where guys making the minimum can stand on the sideline all year and not see action, or in basketball where a handful of stars play most of the game, but in hockey everybody plays.

    The sad reality is none of this would have been necessary if lame-brained owners had only realized it wasn't necessary to sign anyone to huge contracts before unrestricted free agency at 31. And now we, the fans, will probably end up paying the price with a diluted product in the short term, at least.
     
  19. Jackets16

    Jackets16 Registered User

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    thats why players are gonna have to suck it up and take cuts. and guess what, thats what they should do. and if they do their job and make this league good, make this league make money, they will raise the cap and they can make more money and so on. its what the nba does and it works.
     
  20. Lorenzo1000

    Lorenzo1000 Registered User

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    Or the lamebrained players who followed Goodenow into the abyss like a pack of mind controlled lemmings. :biglaugh:
     
  21. Bruinaholic

    Bruinaholic Registered User

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    One thing that i think should be instituited is a "Franchise Tag" which allows the star player to not be counted against the teams salary cap.
    I also dont think that 1 players salary should exceed 6-7$ either.
    But looking at 666 model (which was nice work) i find it hard to believe an NHL team will be able to land 11 players at 400k per year.
     
  22. zeke

    zeke #freeVladdy

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    Your analysis, of course, ignores the fact that a team like Ottawa will get their #1 centre for maybe $1 million, and a team like Florida will get their #1 goalie for much less than $4 million, not to mention their #1 defenseman for less than $1 mil.

    In other words, that most teams will fill some of those pricey needs with cheaper but just as talented younger players. Some teams will be able to fill many of their needs that way.

    So your number overstimates significantly the number of minimum salary players..

    http://asp.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/nhl/salaries/teamdetail.aspx?year=2003-04&team=11

    By my count, 452 players in 03/04 made a salary that would now be worth less than $1.0 million with the 24% rollback.

    That's every player who made $1.3 or less last season.

    So that's about 60% of the players that already know, with the rollback the NHLPA offered in December, that they'd be making less than $1.0 million this coming season.
     
  23. Nich

    Nich Registered User

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    first line centers will not 4.5 mil...those who are all stars will
     
  24. barnburner

    barnburner Registered User

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    What part of " This is as good as it is going to get" will the players not understand??

    If they turn this down - they better brush up on their language skills..
     
  25. Sam I Am

    Sam I Am Registered User

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    666, you are too generous. Here's my take on the average roster two or three years into the new CBA:

    $3.5M:star first line C
    $3.0M:star goalie:
    $2.5M:1st dman
    $2.0M:2nd dman
    $2.0M:1st line RW
    $2.0M:1st line LW

    Now, we've spent only $15M for the starting lineup. Next:

    $2.00M:2nd line C
    $1.25M:2nd line RW
    $1.25M:2nd line LW
    $1.25M:2nd d pair
    $1.25M:2nd d pair

    Highest paid 11 guys comprise a $22M, or approx. 2/3 of team's total payroll.

    Six guys in the $800K to $1M range--let's say $5M for the bunch--bringing our running total to $27M for top 17 guys.

    Finally, 5-7 utility players and/or young 'uns at an average of $.5M per.

    Final payroll: $29.5M - $30.5M depending on how much flotsam you carry.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    This is how life will be for a mid-range team in the new NHL.
     
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