Why the Avs will regress next year

DoubleDouble*

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I see them finishing around 15th overall. They were overacheiving this year.
 

11111111111

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Dec 6, 2011
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So by the same token wouldn't good goaltending invalidate a bad Corsi?:huh:

Sorry, that should have read 'bad goaltending can still sink good possession teams'. Just as good goaltending can hold up poor possession teams. It does not invalidate a statistic (or set of statistics, as no 'advanced stat' ought to be taken on its own without context) that has proven to be the perhaps best predictor of long-term success. It simply means that good possession does not always equal wins, which is of no surprise to anyone and has never been argued.

That goes back to the rest of my post. Controlling what you can control, leaving as little up to luck as possible. Sure, Crawford might break down. Miller might have an off half-year with the Blues. It doesn't mean those aren't good teams, and a huge part of that is possession.
 

Freudian

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Jul 3, 2003
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Teams wouldn't do that. In general, teams attempt to outscore their opponents, and the way to do that is to outpossess and outchance their opponent.

It's similar to a goaltender's goal - is the goaltender's goal to win games or to stop pucks directed at him? Clearly, it's to win games. How does he best accomplish that? By stopping pucks directed at him.

If use of corsi spreads and coaches reward players who have good corsi and teams go after players who have good corsi, I could easily see players start manufacturing more corsi events. Ie, start taking more bad shots. Especially if the team communicates their use of corsi and it's importance to the players. If players can start using more dump and chase despite it being completely ineffective just because that's what the coach want, they can certainly produce more shot attempts if that is what the coach wants.

Now I don't think most teams work that way. They're probably tracking things that are more relevant when it comes to winning hockey (clean zone entries, scoring chances) rather than missed shots. But there might be that odd organization that's gone overboard with the popular advanced stats.
 

jsalz16

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Feb 21, 2010
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There is a 100% chance of the Avs regressing - they will not hit 112 points next season. I'd expect them to land right around 95-100 points next season, comfortably in the playoffs but not competing for the top record in the West like they did this year. They were extraordinarily lucky by almost any advanced metric. It finally caught up the Toronto late in the year, it will probably bite Colorado next season.

Worse luck, better advanced stats, regression from this past season. And if they have to play Chicago or STL in round 1 then they probably will be knocked out in round 1.
I agree that they will likely not repeat this season in wins/pts, but as to the rest of your post, you are assuming they make no roster moves in the off season and their core does not improve.
Most posters predicting a big regression are also making these assumptions.
 

tucker3434

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A lot of guys had career years last season. It's very likely some underwhelm next season. Maybe MacKinnon has a sophomore slump. While I think varly is a great goalie, smart money is on him not being a vezina finalist next year.

All that said, it's unlikely all of it goes wrong. The Avs likely make a roster move or two this off season to shore up the blue line, and while some guys will play under expectations, others will probably play a little above.

Add it all up, they're likely a playoff team, just not winning a division. Some people are A-OK accepting the 12-13 Avs as a true representation of the team and are wanting to dismiss the 13-14 campaign as a fluke. The truth is somewhere in the middle.
 

tigervixxxen

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:laugh::laugh::laugh:

Tell that to Luongo-Schneider or Hiller-Andersen/Fasth/Gibson

Ward-Khudobin, Crawford- Raanta..etc etc

Did I say the split would be 50-50? A tandem doesn't have to be.

And just because they pay him more, that doesn't give him absolute job security. If Varlymov slumps the job is Berra's to take.

IF Varlymov posts average numbers instead of his Vezina numbers that 5.9 cap hit is going to look terrible.

Massive goalie deals always look bad in the end.

We all know the Luongo saga and Hiller is a UFA. Varly was given the extension 4 months ago. If they were not absolutely behind him they would have chosen a much better challenger as a backup than Berra. Varly playing average is probably better than what they can replace him with. And if Berra actually plays well enough to challenge Varly, Avs fans will dance naked in the street.
 

BF3

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I agree that they will likely not repeat this season in wins/pts, but as to the rest of your post, you are assuming they make no roster moves in the off season and their core does not improve.
Most posters predicting a big regression are also making these assumptions.

Wild ended up with 98 points, 4th place in the division. That sounds about right for the Avs next season, and that means a date with Chicago or STL in round 1 (most likely).

That doesn't sound great for the Avs unless their goaltending remains near current levels, their young core makes a rather large jump and none of them regress or level off at all, AND they improve their backline. That's a lot of ifs.

Colorado will probably be a better team (and have better advanced metrics), just a lot less lucky. Avs also have the misfortune of playing in the best division in hockey as it relates to early round playoff matchups.
 

member 96824

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"Next week!" "Okay, not next week, next month!" "Okay nevermind, but the second half definitely!" "Okay, they'll cool off after the olympic break!" etc. etc.

Next year now? Okay, I'll wait until the next post "Why the avs will come down to earth in 2020"
 

Gigantor The Goalie

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How lucky does a team have to be in order to end above Chicago and St. Louis in the standings? This isn't a team that got worse towards the end of the season. This isn't the 2009 Avalanche that got off to a hot start and then squeaked into 8th spot in the conference. This wasn't a bunch of young players playing over their heads, it was young players starting to mature. Duchene, ROR, Johnson, Varly and Barrie all took those steps necessary to become prominent NHL players. Why can't this be a team that is going to take a step forward? When Pittsburgh and Chicago were knocked out in the first round of playoffs with their current core, why didn't they end up as a lottery team the next season?
 

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:laugh::laugh::laugh:

Tell that to Luongo-Schneider or Hiller-Andersen/Fasth/Gibson

Ward-Khudobin, Crawford- Raanta..etc etc

Did I say the split would be 50-50? A tandem doesn't have to be.

And just because they pay him more, that doesn't give him absolute job security. If Varlymov slumps the job is Berra's to take.

IF Varlymov posts average numbers instead of his Vezina numbers that 5.9 cap hit is going to look terrible.

Massive goalie deals always look bad in the end.

Henrik Lundqvist $59.5 over seven years. Good luck with that!
 

Aceonfire*

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Henrik Lundqvist $59.5 over seven years. Good luck with that!

You literally quoted me saying that massive goalie deals always look bad in the end. There are maybe 2-3 goalies in the NHL that I would be ok with paying 6+mil a year for a long term deal.
 

ozzie

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Their core is going to get better, but they wont be taking anyone by surprise any more. I think they will regress slightly, but make the playoffs comfortably.
 

AW8

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eh - lottery pick a best. Then win lottery, get McDavid, then trade Staz for a top 4 LhD whilst Barrie emerges as a 60pt player with solid D...
 

The Kingslayer

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There is a 100% chance of the Avs regressing - they will not hit 112 points next season. I'd expect them to land right around 95-100 points next season, comfortably in the playoffs but not competing for the top record in the West like they did this year. They were extraordinarily lucky by almost any advanced metric. It finally caught up the Toronto late in the year, it will probably bite Colorado next season.

Worse luck, better advanced stats, regression from this past season. And if they have to play Chicago or STL in round 1 then they probably will be knocked out in round 1.

How can you say 100%? What happens if they get 113 points next season? Will you leave HF?
 

Avs For Life

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Jul 4, 2012
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I think it is important to get the context of regress here.

If the Avs miss the playoffs, yes they regressed.

If they end up 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in their division, I personally dont think its regressing. We are competing with the Blues and Blackhawks here...Either of those teams could have finished 1st in the division this year.

If the Avs are a wildcard team but make it to the WCF in the playoffs is that regressing?

The regular season can have so many outcomes and as long as we make the playoffs that is all that matters.
 

not a troll

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I hope we finish in last place and get to draft McDavid so he can finally have a chicken macnugget eat off with MacKinnon. If McDavid wins MacKinnon has to change his last name to McKinnon and if MacKinnon wins then McDavid has to change his last name to MacDavid. Cody McLeod officiates.
 

JLo217

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Jul 22, 2009
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Love this theory.

After first winning streak: they're lucky, they'll fall back to earth
Mid-Season: still riding the luck train...
Down the stretch: Well they're winning, but corsi fenwick corsi
After winning the division: They were lucky, stats prove it
After a competitive playoff series: Well they're ok, but they'll regress next year

Other fan bases will stick to this until they win a cup.
 
Jul 30, 2005
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I mean, what is location, really
It's not uncommon for first year coaches to capture the lightning in a bottle and go on and run.

but it IS uncommon for them to keep it. The players never buy in like they did that first year, and opponents never really got a chance to pick you apart. It gets harder every year after that. I'm sure Colorado fans will take it as a slight against their team or some individual players, but it's more a reality of coaching than anything.
 

JLo217

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It's not uncommon for first year coaches to capture the lightning in a bottle and go on and run.

but it IS uncommon for them to keep it. The players never buy in like they did that first year, and opponents never really got a chance to pick you apart. It gets harder every year after that.

Players buy in for sure, but being a smart coach plays a even bigger role. Roy has an extremely talented offense who would still score under most coaches, but a below average defense who performed above average because of the forwards helping out. This isn't just a buy into what he's preaching, its the coach having a good system that plays to their advantage.

Sure they were riding high at times, but this excuse has also been used 100 times all season.

Yes they'll likely not win the division, but Chi, Min, STL and DAL are all great teams. Roy has been well liked by players at all levels, not just year 1.
 

Hasbro

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It's not uncommon for first year coaches to capture the lightning in a bottle and go on and run.

but it IS uncommon for them to keep it. The players never buy in like they did that first year, and opponents never really got a chance to pick you apart. It gets harder every year after that. I'm sure Colorado fans will take it as a slight against their team or some individual players, but it's more a reality of coaching than anything.
However he is following Sacco and a rudderless front office. Look at what the Hawks did after Wirtz died.
 

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