Why Rebuild Now???

[IlTerrifico]

With ScrooEuge apparently keen to clean out the few high salaries we even have on the books in the pending free agents, the question is: how would the Sens stack up even 2 years from now against a perennial Cup contender roster comparable like Tampa Bay, if they simply retain the current free agents and go with the existing prospects:

This comparison chart does that, with green players being youngsters who are slated about where their pedigree suggests and will require some development, and yellow roster spots are areas where without significant development from existing players in the system or an acquisition is made, a significant disparity between the Ottawa player.

While I do give the Lightning a bit of an edge at center (unless White or Brown really surprise), the wingers are overall very comparable, if Formenton and Batherson prove to be above average.

The big gap is on defense, but the highest ranking uneven comparison is Ceci vs McDonough, and McDonough and JT Miller were just acquired by Tampa for some OK talent + a first. Assuming Ottawa could do a similar deal maybe next year, and also assume our albatross contract, Ryan, and theirs for Callahan are similar talents, the disparities become very small, and could be remedied by moving a few spare parts (one of Tierney/Brown/Pageau, the least preferred, and finding a lost soul GM to pay quality for Ceci) and other picks/prospects, for solid lower tier defensemen. And there are some young players now that may develop in the next 24 months too.

Yes I realize it is a bit of a hope that Gustaffson becomes a top level goalie in this time, and that the others develop as expected. But a real owner would hopefully have resources to adjust on the fly as needed. And, best of all, with 5 or 6 young players at entry level pay, there should be options to make the mix optimal through trade or free agency with an owner who puts a priority on winning. We also have the GM competence factor...

Failure to retain Stone and/or Duchene this offseason, and the line up match at RW or Center is gone until they are replaced, and we may not have a top 10 in the league at either position for 5 or more years. In other words, we can reasonably expect to need a lot of luck to do anything for 5 years or more. So why pile 5 or more years of little hope on top of this year and last year, when if things go reasonably well there should be excitement not too far down the road?

Click to read more...

 

[DJB]

Melnyk doesn't really care how we do. He probably looks at everything financially day by day, month by month.

Hes all about his bottom line and dollor regardless of how the team performs.

No way is he thinking about two years from now with guys we may or may not have extended.

He simply doesn't care and until hes gone this vicious cycle of being perpetually cheap is here to stay.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Does the question really need to be asked again...

 

[GCK]

Melnyk doesn't really care how we do. He probably looks at everything financially day by day, month by month.

Hes all about his bottom line and dollor regardless of how the team performs.

No way is he thinking about two years from now with guys we may or may not have extended.

He simply doesn't care and until hes gone this vicious cycle of being perpetually cheap is here to stay.

I have zero doubt that Melnyk wants to win badly, I really do believe he cares, but clearly not enough to put any additional funds into the team.

 

[BondraTime]

Missing Mathieu Joseph on the Lightning side, he's a great young NHL player, wanted him badly in 2015

 

[armani]

Re-build is a sham when the team doesn't even own its number 1 pick. Lets not confuse Melnyk's liquidation of player personnel with a rebuild.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Missing Mathieu Joseph on the Lightning side, he's a great young NHL player, wanted him badly in 2015

The Lightning scouting must be really good .. and they go after player that have that never say die all out every shift approach to the game along with some pretty decent skill. Guys like Cerelli, Jospeph, and Erne .. I would love to have all 3 of those guys. Their development must be up their as well.

 

[Xspyrit]

We’re not rebuilding, we’re cutting down expenses

 

[Samsquanch]

Because we have a terrible, cash strapped owner. And he will use the cover of a "rebuild" as an excuse to scrape the cap floor for the next 5 years while his financial problems sort themselves out.

Im already starting to check out mentally on this franchise, Im just basically waiting for Stone and Duchene to get traded at this point. If/when that happens, I will be good and ready to officially give up on the Melnyk owned Senators in perpetuity.

 

[Byron Bitz]

When I look at that chart I see a huge gap at Center and goaltending, wing is pretty even, and Defence clearly goes to Tampa.

 

[supsens]

Because we have a terrible, cash strapped owner. And he will use the cover of a "rebuild" as an excuse to scrape the cap floor for the next 5 years while his financial problems sort themselves out.

Im already starting to check out mentally on this franchise, Im just basically waiting for Stone and Duchene to get traded at this point. If/when that happens, I will be good and ready to officially give up on the Melnyk owned Senators in perpetuity.

Duchene wants to be a UFA and he wants to be on a contender or at least he has publicly stated, I have no idea why you would base anything off what that guy does. Stone is a tough one, he will recive a handsome offer EM is desperate to keep some fans and the money has nowhere else to be go. I hope he decides to stay.

 

[Samsquanch]

Duchene wants to be a UFA and he wants to be on a contender or at least he has publicly stated, I have no idea why you would base anything off what that guy does. Stone is a tough one, he will recive a handsome offer EM is desperate to keep some fans and the money has nowhere else to be go. I hope he decides to stay.

If you think that its just about Stone and Duchene resigning, then clearly you have not been paying much attention to this train wreck of a franchise much lately...

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I think that we started a rebuild because under Melnyk's previous budget of 68 million dollars, there was no way we could have paid Karlsson, Ryan, Stone, and Duchene while remaining competitive. That's would have been about 35 million dollars worth of salary which means over half the internal salary structure would be eaten up by four players, one of which doesn't live up to his 7.5M price tag.

I also think a rebuild is a way to justify spending less money on players in the short term. With our insured contracts, we're spending well under our previous 68 million mark. We're very close to being a cap floor team in terms of real money spent.

We're not spending less money because we're rebuilding, we're rebuilding because we want to spend less money.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

I think that we started a rebuild because under Melnyk's previous budget of 68 million dollars, there was no way we could have paid Karlsson, Ryan, Stone, and Duchene while remaining competitive. That's would have been about 35 million dollars worth of salary which means over half the internal salary structure would be eaten up by four players, one of which doesn't live up to his 7.5M price tag.

I also think a rebuild is a way to justify spending less money on players in the short term. With our insured contracts, we're spending well under our previous 68 million mark. We're very close to being a cap floor team in terms of real money spent.

We're not spending less money because we're rebuilding, we're rebuilding because we want to spend less money.

We're not spending less money because we're rebuilding, we're rebuilding because we want to spend less money.

We're not spending less money because we're rebuilding, we're rebuilding because we want to spend less money.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

We're not spending less money because we're rebuilding, we're rebuilding because we want to spend less money.

We're not spending less money because we're rebuilding, we're rebuilding because we want to spend less money.

So finishing 30th, overall, last year, has nothing to do with the re-build?

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

So finishing 30th, overall, last year, has nothing to do with the re-build?

Not in my opinion no. It certainly helped them justify their cost cutting with no attempts to improve the team though. It gave them an excuse to plug in a roster of kids, pending UFA's & all of the bad contracts and say that's enough, no more effort needed. Now they have their reasoning to send Stone and Duchene packing all lined up.

 

[aragorn]

Do we really need another thread to crap on the team? If you compare the Lighting to every other team in the NHL do they fare any better against one of the best teams in the NHL this yr, if not the favourite on winning it all? Of course the Sens are rebuilding, they have had half a dozen or more young prospects playing this yr as well as a number of AHL veterans & will most likely be sellers at the deadline, if they aren't already. And because of that it's also been a good yr for the owner to save money & get to the cap floor with cheaper contracts. Both are right.

IMO Ottawa has a very good crop of young players, some already playing & more coming. Whether they will ever be as good as Tampa's team is right now or whether they all pan out remains to be seen but that's the nature of sports that every team that doesn't win it all have to go through. Could they be better if the owner spent more? Who really knows but at the least they could keep the better players they have. There are times when some players have to go but it would be nice if money wasn't such an issue here every yr & it's so difficult to bring & retain good talent.

I think Ottawa will have a very competitive team in future but who knows if they will be cup contenders & whether he spends then to push them over the top. There are plenty of examples of that working & not working. IMO they need better management & coaching for this team to take the next step in their development & they need the financing to retain their good players. Complaining about what we don't have gets in the way of appreciating all of the good players they do have & Ottawa isn't the only NHL team with problems. Only one team wins the cup & all the rest have to improve for the next yr, if they wish to ever compete. It would be great if he sold the team but he could own the team for another decade. Who knows?

1. They could have another generational defenceman in Thomas Chabot.
2. They have two rookies (White & Tkachuk) who are 2nd & 4th in rookie scoring.
3. They have a potential #1 goalie in Gustavasson & #1 centre in Brown.
4. Batherson has lead the Belleville Sens in scoring all yr in his rookie season.
5. They have a cast of very good players coming in Chlapik, JBD, Norris & others.
6. They have two very good NHL offensive forwards in Duchene & Stone, hopefully they both get re-signed.
7. IMO the guys in yellow & some in white could all be gone over the course of the next couple of yrs & replaced with potentially better, younger & cheaper players. But every team is doing the same thing, that's the nature of sports.

 

[God Says No]

Not in my opinion no. It certainly helped them justify their cost cutting with no attempts to improve the team though. It gave them an excuse to plug in a roster of kids, pending UFA's & all of the bad contracts and say that's enough, no more effort needed. Now they have their reasoning to send Stone and Duchene packing all lined up.

Agreed. That was just a very good excuse to sell this rebuild. There was no need for a rebuild. An adjustment yes, a rebuild no. You rebuild because the core is old, or the core is not good enough. Neither of these apply to the Sens.

 

[IlTerrifico]

Do we really need another thread to crap on the team? If you compare the Lighting to every other team in the NHL do they fare any better against one of the best teams in the NHL this yr, if not the favourite on winning it all? Of course the Sens are rebuilding, they have had half a dozen or more young prospects playing this yr as well as a number of AHL veterans & will most likely be sellers at the deadline, if they aren't already. And because of that it's also been a good yr for the owner to save money & get to the cap floor with cheaper contracts. Both are right.

IMO Ottawa has a very good crop of young players, some already playing & more coming. Whether they will ever be as good as Tampa's team is right now or whether they all pan out remains to be seen but that's the nature of sports that every team that doesn't win it all have to go through. Could they be better if the owner spent more? Who really knows but at the least they could keep the better players they have. There are times when some players have to go but it would be nice if money wasn't such an issue here every yr & it's so difficult to bring & retain good talent.

I think Ottawa will have a very competitive team in future but who knows if they will be cup contenders & whether he spends then to push them over the top. There are plenty of examples of that working & not working. IMO they need better management & coaching for this team to take the next step in their development & they need the financing to retain their good players. Complaining about what we don't have gets in the way of appreciating all of the good players they do have & Ottawa isn't the only NHL team with problems. Only one team wins the cup & all the rest have to improve for the next yr, if they wish to ever compete. It would be great if he sold the team but he could own the team for another decade. Who knows?

1. They could have another generational defenceman in Thomas Chabot.
2. They have two rookies (White & Tkachuk) who are 2nd & 4th in rookie scoring.
3. They have a potential #1 goalie in Gustavasson & #1 centre in Brown.
4. Batherson has lead the Belleville Sens in scoring all yr in his rookie season.
5. They have a cast of very good players coming in Chlapik, JBD, Norris & others.
6. They have two very good NHL offensive forwards in Duchene & Stone, hopefully they both get re-signed.
7. IMO the guys in yellow & some in white could all be gone over the course of the next couple of yrs & replaced with potentially better, younger & cheaper players. But every team is doing the same thing, that's the nature of sports.

This wasn't set to crap on the team - just to point out that retaining assets and allowing 2 years of development, if all went fairly well, we should match up nicely with a current top team roster. Dumping 2 of our 3 best assets, not so much, but with the right ownership view on retention, we would likely peak for several years starting in 2021-22.

Dump Duchene and/or Stone for a package of magic beans, and the team craps out. Get some bona fide up and coming talent for them will ensure some suckage near term, and maybe a peak in 2 years before a salary cap crunch would likely kill all hope, under a budget owner not vested in a full effort to win.