Why Mark Andrew's is going to be the #1 fantasy tight end in 2020

[DJB]

Hey guys thought I'd share some info on Mark Andrew's and his possible future outlook

I posted this on twitter but thought it would also be deserving in the forums
https://mobile.twitter.com/dynastylife_ ... 9271475200

Did you know that Mark Andrew's ranked 39th for all tight ends in the % of total team snap counts in 2019?

Yes. 39th. With a total team share of just 41.5%

Kelce was #1 with a 92.6% share
Waller #2 with 90.6%
Ertz # 3 with 80.5%
Kittle #6 with 75%

In 2019 here were Andrews final fantasy points scoring for tight ends

#2 TE in standard format ahead of Kittle, but behind Kelce
#4 TE in half PPR behind Kelce, Kittle, and Waller.
#5 TE in full PPR behind those three and Ertz.

We know that Hayden Hurst and his 41.4 % of total team snap contain 2019 when he left Baltimore

Is M Andrew's going to gobble all of those snaps up? Unlikely. Even if he was given half, Andrews would only have finished #20 in 2019 for TE total team snap counts.

Let's say Andrew's is given 1/2 Haydens snaps so about 60% of the total team snap counts. If we use his 2019 fantasy points per target, and his overall points along with increase in snap total count by our estimated 20%, he would have finished as the #1 TE

With that data we can conservatively guess that Andrew's would have finished with an avg of 17.5 fantasy points per game in 2019 in 1/2 PPR. Easily surpassing both Kelce and Kittle who avg 12.9 fantasy points per game.

Andrew's is entering his 3rd NFL season and is only 23 years old. Kittle (26), and Kelce (30) y/o.

Andrew's is also tied to Lamar Jackson for the foreseeable future and appears to be the #1 passing target in Baltimore. Buy Mark Andrews. NOW!

We aren't taking into account whatever scheme and personelle additions and subtractions. We are basing everything off how each tight end finished in 2019 and using some data to take a conservative guess on the future. I hope you enjoyed this thread.
Last edited by DJB on Mon May 11, 2020 1:43

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[Trap Jesus]

It's going to be Kelce and Kittle again as the top 2 in all formats. Andrews is definitely in that top group but I don't know how you can justify him being in the top 2. There's so much more certainty with those other two guys.

 

[Evincar]

Jackson's fluky TD rate is sure to come down and I doubt his passing attempts increase that much. Also I think Hollywood Brown was banged up all season so he's going to get more targets as result of being healthy. Who knows if guys like Duvernay or Boykin make an impact or not.

I think Andrews is the clear #3 behind Kelce and Kittle.

 

[Josepho]

Andrews will never get nearly as many snaps as the guys you mentioned because he's not nearly as good of a blocker.

Our offence runs the ball so often, and will likely try to incorporate receivers into the game more after the playoff loss. I don't think incorporating the tight ends more will be a priority in our offence.

I'd probably have him at 4, behind Kelce, Kittle, Ertz.

 

[Unholy Diver]

How many of Hurst's snaps came with Andrews already on the field? As much as they ran the ball I have to think that the Ravens used 2 TE's quite a bit

 

[Josepho]

How many of Hurst's snaps came with Andrews already on the field? As much as they ran the ball I have to think that the Ravens used 2 TE's quite a bit

Boyle was usually the 2nd TE on the field and had nearly 70% of offensive snaps. He was the designated blocker of the three.

I don't have specific data for this (and if anyone has a site for this I'd to know) but I really don't recall often seeing Hurst and Andrews on the field simultaneously.

 

[Terry Yake]

Boyle was usually the 2nd TE on the field and had nearly 70% of offensive snaps. He was the designated blocker of the three.

I don't have specific data for this (and if anyone has a site for this I'd to know) but I really don't recall often seeing Hurst and Andrews on the field simultaneously.

yeah it was almost always andrews+boyle playing together last season

when hurst was in he'd usually be the only TE or he'd be playing with boyle

 

[StreetHawk]

yeah it was almost always andrews+boyle playing together last season

when hurst was in he'd usually be the only TE or he'd be playing with boyle

Plus Baltimore will dress 3 TE. The new TE might end up eating the majority of Hurst’s snaps. Andrews might only see 6/7 more snaps a game.