Why is it so Hard to Make a Trade?

[Drop the Sopel]

After the failed Ballard deal I don't think GMMG is as willing to part with a first as you might think. This team isn't getting any younger and we don't have much coming up who will be able to replace some of our aging core players. I think Gillis is always looking but times are changing in Van. I see them starting to shift into full on development stage very soon.

No time, nor need or room on the roster for this. The defense is locked up semi-longterm, goaltending is sorted and the top half of the forward roster is locked in too. This isn't a team in a position to start slotting youth into crucial roles.

Gillis' objective has to be to find one more impact forward and strengthen centre ice. Looks like this is what he's trying to do.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Gillis has traded his 1st rd pick before and has probably traded as many draft picks as any other GM in the league since his arrival. If 'frequency 101' is all about keeping picks, why has Gillis moved so many?

I expect Gillis to continue looking for veteran talent leading up to the deadline.

It's the 1st, more than anything. And I think he has learned to start keeping his higher picks after 2010, where he had none in the top90. 2011, they were in contention, and he kept his 1st and 2nd. 2012, he again kept his 1st and 2nd. Right now, he has all of his picks. I'm going to guess that he keeps his 1st and 2nd again... All to support the frequency strategy.

Vet talent is one thing. You can get that with 3rds and 4ths, like he has. But dealing prime picks is another. The 2nd given up for Bernier was his biggest gaffe IMO. But aside from a desperate situation trying to land a top4 Dman, he's been good at keeping his 1st. I expect him to do the same this year.

 

[Bleach Clean]

No time, nor need or room on the roster for this. The defense is locked up semi-longterm, goaltending is sorted and the top half of the forward roster is locked in too. This isn't a team in a position to start slotting youth into crucial roles.

Gillis' objective has to be to find one more impact forward and strengthen centre ice. Looks like this is what he's trying to do.

He's trying to strengthen centre ice, of that there is no doubt. But I don't believe he will deal a 1st to do it. And I think everyone wants to add an impact forward...

Gillis has _explicitly_ discussed how he feels about contention windows. He doesn't believe in them. There's plenty of "time" in this regard.

 

[MikeK]

No time, nor need or room on the roster for this. The defense is locked up semi-longterm, goaltending is sorted and the top half of the forward roster is locked in too. This isn't a team in a position to start slotting youth into crucial roles.

Gillis' objective has to be to find one more impact forward and strengthen centre ice. Looks like this is what he's trying to do.

It takes time to draft and develop good prospects. Unless you are drafting a top 5 player in the draft most players take years to crack a lineup. If they started now then by the time those deals are expiring we should have some valid replacements in the system. As it stands right now we have nothing. I like what we have in Gaunce and Jensen but in my opinion that is all we have to look forward to. It is time to start looking at what the next 4-5 years are going to look like and we can't do that by trading away top end picks.

I don't know though. Like I said this is just my opinion. I see the Canucks at kinda the tail end of this cores run. It is time to start thinking about down the line.

 

[Bleach Clean]

It takes time to draft and develop good prospects. Unless you are drafting a top 5 player in the draft most players take years to crack a lineup. If they started now then by the time those deals are expiring we should have some valid replacements in the system. As it stands right now we have nothing. I like what we have in Gaunce and Jensen but in my opinion that is all we have to look forward to. It is time to start looking at what the next 4-5 years are going to look like and we can't do that by trading away top end picks.

I don't know though. Like I said this is just my opinion. I see the Canucks at kinda the tail end of this cores run. It is time to start thinking about down the line.

Except the team has been very strong 5 on 5 this year, even without Booth+Kesler+Kassian. It may not be the tail end just yet. On the whole though, I agree with your take. Have to think long-term. Gillis has to start to orchestrate the push from within the pipeline. Whether it be to help a declining roster, or bolster a still competitive one.

I like his approach of doing enough for the team to have a shot at the cup, while not sacrificing what little youth this team has. Jensen and Gaunce shouldn't be going anywhere. They are this team's future.

 

[MikeK]

Except the team has been very strong 5 on 5 this year, even without Booth+Kesler+Kassian. It may not be the tail end just yet. On the whole though, I agree with your take. Have to think long-term. Gillis has to start to orchestrate the push from within the pipeline. Whether it be to help a declining roster, or bolster a still competitive one.

I like his approach of doing enough for the team to have a shot at the cup, while not sacrificing what little youth this team has. Jensen and Gaunce shouldn't be going anywhere. They are this team's future.

It is a tough spot to be in for GMMG but it's really his own fault because he has, in my opinion, wasted his fair share of draft picks on bad player acquisitions. I am all for trying to improve the lineup but the Canucks are so limited in what they have to gamble with. I still believe and hold my position that we should never even dream of trading Gaunce and Jensen. Regardless of our position in the standings I also still feel our 1st is worth keeping. I look around and see great young teams coming into their own and I believe the Canucks blew their shot with this core. Their time isn't over yet but the end is close. I pray GMMG doesn't do something stupid like trading Jensen or Gaunce or one of our top 2 picks.

 

[Bleach Clean]

It is a tough spot to be in for GMMG but it's really his own fault because he has, in my opinion, wasted his fair share of draft picks on bad player acquisitions. I am all for trying to improve the lineup but the Canucks are so limited in what they have to gamble with. I still believe and hold my position that we should never even dream of trading Gaunce and Jensen. Regardless of our position in the standings I also still feel our 1st is worth keeping. I look around and see great young teams coming into their own and I believe the Canucks blew their shot with this core. Their time isn't over yet but the end is close. I pray GMMG doesn't do something stupid like trading Jensen or Gaunce or one of our top 2 picks.

I don't think it's over yet for this core. With the right supplements, he can keep the bus rolling for them. After that, it's up to them to seize the opportunity and push for the cup. There's only so much he can do.

As to his wasted draft picks: I've complained a few times that he's dealt a good amount of depth picks. He needs to stop. And I think he kind of has. He's being much more selective now. But even when dealing those depth picks, he valued his 1st rounder. The Ballard deal being the outlier. If he keeps hold of those 1sts, I think he can start supplementing the roster as we go here. No guarantee of course that they all make it, but I've like what he's done in the 1st rounds so far...



Just to re-iterate the earlier point, here's Gillis's take on it (from the Wolves thread via Feebster):

“It’s difficult when you have a good team to turn over a lot of players. Ideally, next year, I think we’ll have more turnover, because the cap changes and we have some younger players we feel will be ready to make the step.

“So we won’t have to sign the older, kind of journeyman player.

“Our hope now, as some of these younger guys step into our lineup, is that we start to get younger over the next couple of years, and we’ll retain our core guys that they’ll learn from, and it seems to be the kind of process that allows you to stay pretty good over a long period of time.”

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/sports/C...#ixzz2OoMDWdpd

He wants the team to start to get younger over the next few years. Then, he wants the core guys to teach those guys, which essentially inserts youth into more prominent roles. Surrounded by the core. Again, the focus is long-term.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

It is a tough spot to be in for GMMG but it's really his own fault because he has, in my opinion, wasted his fair share of draft picks on bad player acquisitions. I am all for trying to improve the lineup but the Canucks are so limited in what they have to gamble with. I still believe and hold my position that we should never even dream of trading Gaunce and Jensen. Regardless of our position in the standings I also still feel our 1st is worth keeping. I look around and see great young teams coming into their own and I believe the Canucks blew their shot with this core. Their time isn't over yet but the end is close. I pray GMMG doesn't do something stupid like trading Jensen or Gaunce or one of our top 2 picks.

Okay lets look back at what draft picks Gillis traded away...

1st in the Ballard trade, ya we can say that this trade didn't work out.

A couple 4ths in the Paulsson trade, you have to give up to get something, but ya you can say that this one didn't work out. But they are 4th rd picks...

The 3rd rd picks that were traded for Higgins and Lapierre, I would say that these were well worth it.

If I'm missing any let me know but to me it doesn't look like Gillis has "wasted his fair share of draft picks on bad player acquisitions."

To me it looks like he hasn't turned the draft picks he has made into either a) Impact Roster players or b) Attractive tradeable assets.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Gillis has a good plan, Young players develop with mentors in the lineup. Jagr does not become Jagr without Mario, Datyshuk and Zetterberg do not become who they are without Yzerman, Larionov, Federov. I think Sundin, helped the Sedins and Kesler get to the next level as well. Luongo helped produce Schneider also. If you can develop Kesler, Burrows, and Hansen from 4th line players to 2nd line and 1st line players you do not need to rebuild. If Gaunce, Jensen, Schoeder, can do the same the team will be fine. Especially when they pick up Garrison, Hamhuis, Tanev for no assets.

 

[Yossarian54]

Okay lets look back at what draft picks Gillis traded away...

1st in the Ballard trade, ya we can say that this trade didn't work out.

A couple 4ths in the Paulsson trade, you have to give up to get something, but ya you can say that this one didn't work out. But they are 4th rd picks...

The 3rd rd picks that were traded for Higgins and Lapierre, I would say that these were well worth it.

If I'm missing any let me know but to me it doesn't look like Gillis has "wasted his fair share of draft picks on bad player acquisitions."

To me it looks like he hasn't turned the draft picks he has made into either a) Impact Roster players or b) Attractive tradeable assets.

Just on this point, a lot of people have done cursory studies that have looked at the chances of sub-20 or so picks, and it seems that the chances that you'll get a long term NHL player out of a sub-20 pick in any draft are less than 30%. That drops precipitously after the 1st round too. I can't blame Gillis in that respect any more than I can blame any other NHL Gm for not turning second round picks into gold consistently.

 

[BeardyCanuck03]

Just on this point, a lot of people have done cursory studies that have looked at the chances of sub-20 or so picks, and it seems that the chances that you'll get a long term NHL player out of a sub-20 pick in any draft are less than 30%. That drops precipitously after the 1st round too. I can't blame Gillis in that respect any more than I can blame any other NHL Gm for not turning second round picks into gold consistently.

Agreed, which is why I added the 2nd part of attractive tradeable assets.

 

[King of the ES*]

Gillis has _explicitly_ discussed how he feels about contention windows. He doesn't believe in them. There's plenty of "time" in this regard.

Oh, so he's found how to defy the aging process? What a guy!

 

[rye&ginger]

Oh, so he's found how to defy the aging process? What a guy!

Did you read the previous dozen posts? haha.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

WHAT?!?

You can't be serious. Any team that Jarome will waive his NTC for will offer Calgary something, and they'll get to choose which offer they feel is better, and/or play both sides against eachother to try and drive the price up even more.

Not the case with Luongo. There are already only a handful, max, of teams that might have interest in accommodating him, and I don't think any will be beating down Gillis' door over the next week.

Doesn't look like that happened eh?

Shero actually goes out and improves one of the elagues best teams.


Gillis can't even move Luongo.

Yeah and he goes out and overpays because he can for a few reasons. (Aside from the Iggy deal) I don't think it makes sense for us to do something like that and trade Nicklas Jensen for a 3rd line rental like Morrow.

How does pittsburgh have a rostrEr like that compared to a roster like ours and we both spend the same amount of money???


Shero >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Gillis.

Because they have the 2 best players in the world who can make tweeners/3rd line players bonified top 6 fowards.

making a move is not necessarily the best thing for this team, especially if the prices are high for rentals.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

Except the team has been very strong 5 on 5 this year, even without Booth+Kesler+Kassian. It may not be the tail end just yet. On the whole though, I agree with your take. Have to think long-term. Gillis has to start to orchestrate the push from within the pipeline. Whether it be to help a declining roster, or bolster a still competitive one.

I like his approach of doing enough for the team to have a shot at the cup, while not sacrificing what little youth this team has. Jensen and Gaunce shouldn't be going anywhere. They are this team's future.

I agree, I would also throw Schroeder in there too for forwards.

We need to keep our picks, thats how Detriot has remained successful. They just replace the older pieces in there roster with the players they drafted. We have really made strides to improve our developmental system to the point where if we keep most of our picks (and our high picks) we should see the benefit of that down the road.

It will be nice for them to learn from guys like the Sedins, exc. So down the road these guys can be the core of our team along with other players we draft and sign/acquire, exc.

 

[ChilliBilly]

I see two general types of comments:

1 - GMMG has done nothing to improve this team.

2 - We have nothing in the pipeline, GMMG had better not move Jensen, Gaunce or our first this year.

Does anyone see the problem with trying to answer both of these issues?

Would be nice to add a piece, but it really depends on the price.

Before the StL game people were talking about how bad we were and we should really tank the rest of the season to get a good draft pick. Now we are one piece short of planning a parade.

We have a damn good team, doing well considering how much injury crap we have going on.

 

[Scurr]

Gillis has _explicitly_ discussed how he feels about contention windows. He doesn't believe in them. There's plenty of "time" in this regard.

That's the Detroit model. Ice a competitive team every year, make the playoffs 20 straight, win cups. Boom.

 

[Zarpan]

They also don't have $9.3m invested in goalies. Every game we have $5M sitting on the bench never touching the ice. We also have 2 bad acquisitions eating up another $8.5M in Ballard and Booth. When you really look at it we have a total of $13.8M of wasted cap space. That $13.8M is the equivalent to 2 Iginla's. How would this team look if it had 2 Iginla type players instead of a 6th Dman playing wing on the 3rd-4th line, a Salo 2.0, and a $5M backup? Sad but true.

On the other hand, we have a number of players signed for considerably less than they'd get on the open market.

Speaking of the open market - even $13 million in cap space wouldn't get you 2 Iginla's these days. None of the top players hit the open market unless they are looking to move to a specific team like Suter and Parise. Probably the best you can do in free agency is to toss $7+ million at a Semin like player with some question marks.

As for the Penguins - their success is largely due to 5 straight top 5 picks as well as some excellent drafting 8-9 years ago. Their draft record in the last few years is okay, but nothing spectacular. They've made some good trades, but have had the assets to make the trades due to the drafts from the mid-2000s.

 

[biturbo19]

That's the Detroit model. Ice a competitive team every year, make the playoffs 20 straight, win cups. Boom.

And then Lidstrom retires and your 'model' looks just like everyone else scrambling to fill big holes in FA and getting tossed into discussions with Calgary for Bouwmeester.


Gillis can believe in that 'model' all he wants. And yes, there are ways to stay competitive over time, etc.

But ultimately, teams in today's NHL live and die by their elite players. For us...that's the Sedins. Our 'window' opens and closes with them, and it's extremely unlikely that we miraculously unearth an entire new '1st line' while they are still playing at an elite level as they are.

 

[Bleach Clean]

That's the Detroit model. Ice a competitive team every year, make the playoffs 20 straight, win cups. Boom.

Yes, exactly. But people have such a difficult time grasping this. It's like they can't resolve this in their heads due to past notions of "loading up". It doesn't make sense to them, even when Gillis is outlining it for them point blank. When you increase the frequency of playoff appearances, you inherently increase the opportunity to win. That's why a DET can win cups 4 times in 12 years. And it's why they are still in the playoffs as we speak.

Frankly, it doesn't really matter if fans want to hitch their wagon to the Sedin-based window. Gillis has explicitly described his plan, and it runs counter to that notion. The complaining won't matter.

 

[Fat Tony]

That's the Detroit model. Ice a competitive team every year, make the playoffs 20 straight, win cups. Boom.

I used to believe that. We're coming into a period where that model will be tested and I don't think it will be pretty.

 

[biturbo19]

I used to believe that. We're coming into a period where that model will be tested and I don't think it will be pretty.

Yep. As i said above...having one of the greatest defencemen of all time on your depth chart can hide a lot of shortcomings. Not just one of the best defencemen in any given year...a guy who is consistently at the top of the heap and makes everyone around him better for a decade.

You lose that...and i think we're already starting to see some pretty concerning cracks forming in the foundations of that 'Detroit Model'.

 

[Bleach Clean]

I used to believe that. We're coming into a period where that model will be tested and I don't think it will be pretty.

It's being tested right now, and DET is 6th in the west, where they finished 5th last year... With a far weaker defense corps.

But your larger point is dependent on a lot of factors. One in particular being the transition of their prospects like Nyquist, Jarnkrok, Smith and Oullette. Their strength is going to come down to how their development coincides with the decline of Datsyuk. The point being, at least they have the option now, where loading up would have taken that away from them.

 

[Aphid Attraction]

Seems easy enough for us to get good free agents though, DET well, who chooses to live there?
The model is have a solid team, compete each year, and try and get lucky on a pick or FA, or get an easy playoffs, seems better then to go full Pejorative Slur for a heap of prospects.
But that's just me...

 

[biturbo19]

It's being tested right now, and DET is 6th in the west, where they finished 5th last year... With a far weaker defense corps.

But your larger point is dependent on a lot of factors. One in particular being the transition of their prospects like Nyquist, Jarnkrok, Smith and Oullette. Their strength is going to come down to how their development coincides with the decline of Datsyuk. The point being, at least they have the option now, where loading up would have taken that away from them.

I think you're completely mixing up 'The Detroit Model' and the idea of not 'Loading Up'. The two concepts are not the same.

I think the idea of not going 'all in' on a given playoff year is a valid one. That is definitely how teams can wreck their future in a heartbeat.

But that 'Detroit Model' is about an awful lot more than that. It's about 'over-ripening' prospects, filling all the major holes from within, stability and consistency, first rate development, etc etc etc., and it relies extremely heavily on finding gems in the later rounds.

And arguably...relies heavily on having a HOF blueliner hiding some of the problems.


I'm all for not going 'all in' with rentals, etc. for a push this year. Building the organization from within. Building something that is sustainable and can compete for a few years. But i think the 'Detroit Model' of contending for a decade is a crock, and it ultimately comes down to having Lidstrom on your roster, and a pair of late-round gems who turned into elite forwards in Datsyuk+Zetterberg. Outside that...they're just like every other team, filling in spots with depth from within with very mixed results, or trying to find external options via UFA and Trade...and they're a significantly weaker team now than they were last year.

And as far as the Canucks are concerned...The Sedins are our guys. If we don't get a cup win done while they are here...we are going to have some heavy duty re-tooling to do. Not a top-to-bottom gutting of the organization...but we're going to be missing a 1st line. Jensen is the ONLY prospect currently in our organization with that sort of upside...How long will the Sedins really hold out as top-tier 1st liners? That's our 'Window'.