Why Fire Your Coach? Because New Coaches Win the Most

By Goose · Nov 21, 2019 · Updated Nov 22, 2019
Rating:
5/5,
  1. Goose Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2006
    Messages:
    1,980
    Likes Received:
    1,020
    Trophy Points:
    149
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Thinking about the high turnover in NHL head coaches (leading all professional sports leagues), I did a bit of a back-of-the-napkin math on NHL head coaches and their tenure with a given team who made the Stanley cup Finals over the past 30 years, and here's the breakdown:

    Note that this represents how many years the coach has been with that specific team, not overall experience. So Pat Burns, for example, made the SCF in his 1st year coaching the Canadiens (lost) and won the SCF his 1st year with the Devils.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    I don't have easy raw data on average NHL tenure per calendar year to compare against the mean, but it's pretty amazing how many first year coaches with a team have made the SCF and how few long tenured coaches have won. The breakdown for winning and making the SCF as a first year coach are the same, by the way, (12/12).

    I'm a believer in the whole "shaking up the culture" argument, especially looking at STL last year, and the data seems to back it up. The only problem is, I don't have raw data on average coaching tenure to compare deviation, and that's too much work, but I thought I'd see what people think. Do the numbers look like this simply because there is a lot of turnover in the NHL, or is there a lot of turnover because it works?

    For comparison, only 3 NFL head coaches have won a Super Bowl in their first year of coaching a team over the past 30 years, compared with the NHL's 12. I think it's 7 for MLB, then 4 for the NBA.
     
  2. MikeK Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2008
    Messages:
    9,203
    Likes Received:
    1,825
    Trophy Points:
    187
    SB Cash:
    $ 148,800
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Earth
    Because the coach is the only option for most teams nowadays. It's hard making player changes when most impactful players make so much money today and when you throw in a cap it's almost impossible to make any sort of meaningful trades mid-season. The coach will always be the first to go because he's the cheapest and quickest fix.
     
  3. Doctor No Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 26, 2005
    Messages:
    8,424
    Likes Received:
    2,261
    Trophy Points:
    166
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Home Page:
    It would be useful to see what proportion of coaches overall are in their first year with a team, second year with a team, et cetera...

    For instance, it's interesting that 24/60 of SC Finalists are first-year coached, but would be less interesting if (hypothetically) 90% of teams have a first-year coach (exaggerating for effect).
     
  4. Goose Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2006
    Messages:
    1,980
    Likes Received:
    1,020
    Trophy Points:
    149
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Yeah for sure, that’s what I was referring to not having the mean data. Would take way too long to do that by hand and I don’t have a quick way to aggregate.

    Still pretty amazing the difference between NHL/NFL.
     
    NHL WAR and Doctor No like this.
  5. JianYang Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2017
    Messages:
    6,618
    Likes Received:
    3,702
    Trophy Points:
    101
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    It's the life of an nhl coach. It doesn't take long for things to get bad, and it happens to virtually every coach.

    It's not uncommon to see an immediate improvement after a change, but all that does is perpetuate the cycle, because the new guy's time will turn sour soon enough.
     
  6. MrFunnyWobbl GOAT

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2012
    Messages:
    27,020
    Likes Received:
    913
    Trophy Points:
    139
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Coaches that can't adapt to maximize the talents of their players and deploy them correctly should go.

    Different sport, but look at how John Harbaugh has rebuilt the Ravens entire offense around Lamar Jackson, a QB who many teams thought couldn't cut it in the position, and it is paying dividends. So many lesser coaches would be using him poorly. Same applies in the NHL, and moreso european soccer.
     
    stopclickbait, mrquincy27 and Josepho like this.
  7. LeHab Registered User

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2005
    Messages:
    13,637
    Likes Received:
    3,218
    Trophy Points:
    186
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Location:
    6 feet away
    Helistin likes this.
  8. Goose Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2006
    Messages:
    1,980
    Likes Received:
    1,020
    Trophy Points:
    149
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
  9. valet obviously adhd

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2017
    Messages:
    5,701
    Likes Received:
    2,693
    Trophy Points:
    112
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Location:
    buffalo
    it's moments like these where i wish i had the attention span and focus to really dig in to an article like that, but i just don't got it.... :(
     
    JoeThorntonsRooster likes this.
  10. Luigi Lemieux Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 26, 2003
    Messages:
    18,754
    Likes Received:
    3,218
    Trophy Points:
    231
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    In recent memory a team that fired its coach mid-season won the cup 4 times in the past 10 years.

    2009 - Pittsburgh - Therrien to Bylsma
    2012 - LA - Stevens to Sutter
    2016 - Pittsburgh - Johnston to Sullivan
    2019 - St Louis - Yeo to Berube

    A good team that's not living up to expectations can definitely get a huge boost from firing the coach.
     
    Goose likes this.
  11. adsfan Registered User

    Joined:
    May 31, 2008
    Messages:
    8,417
    Likes Received:
    1,141
    Trophy Points:
    140
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Milwaukee
    Babcock is an egomaniac.

    Lavy seems to be wearing out his welcome in Nashville. Losing 8 of the last 9 games is shocking with the talent the Preds have.

    If you fire a coach, you need to find somebody better, or maybe somebody as good but different in methods.
     
  12. abo9 Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2017
    Messages:
    2,085
    Likes Received:
    1,175
    Trophy Points:
    94
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Are you suggesting the Maple Leafs will win the Cup? :sarcasm: My bold prediction is that Keefe will be seen as a great coach by the end of the year, and win the Jack Adams trophy

    I'm surprised because I would have thought that 2nd year coaches had more success!
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2019
  13. rubous Jekyll and Hyde

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2012
    Messages:
    8,421
    Likes Received:
    4,497
    Trophy Points:
    127
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Location:
    Murica.
    who is this?
     
    abo9 likes this.
  14. SillyRabbit Trix Are For Kids

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,399
    Likes Received:
    2,069
    Trophy Points:
    156
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    I remember reading a statistic a couple years ago that no coach has ever won a Cup for a team he’s coaching if he didn’t already win one in his first four seasons.

    So basically you either have early success or you never will.

    So if that’s true, the coaches who won Cups 5+ years after coaching the same team had already won one with that same team in the first four years.
     
  15. LatvianTwist Global Moderator Sponsor

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2010
    Messages:
    35,166
    Likes Received:
    6,513
    Trophy Points:
    225
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Glen Sather invalidates this. Took him 8 years to win a Cup with Edmonton. Al Arbour too, took him 7 years.

    Probably more historically, but I'm too lazy to keep looking.

    Recently, it does hold though.
     
  16. SillyRabbit Trix Are For Kids

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2006
    Messages:
    5,399
    Likes Received:
    2,069
    Trophy Points:
    156
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Yeah there might've been a qualifier such as "in the past 30 years" or something like that.
     
  17. Machinehead CHAMP19NS

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    105,081
    Likes Received:
    35,828
    Trophy Points:
    156
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Occupation:
    Professor
    Location:
    NYC
    By the same logic you should trade any player who turns 22 because young players score more.

    At some point, there's value in stability also.
     
  18. tucson83 Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2017
    Messages:
    1,902
    Likes Received:
    884
    Trophy Points:
    84
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Gender:
    Male
    i think it's combination of alot of things, results, figuring out your scheme, etc, new coaches that come in have new ideas and the rest of the coaches cant figure it out and they win that way. in my opinion, i think coaches are kept too long get figured out and lose more games, that's why new coaches should get smaller windows because they eventually get figured out and lose more games.
     
  19. end Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2007
    Messages:
    16,857
    Likes Received:
    785
    Trophy Points:
    169
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Location:
    Arklay Mansion
    I think a big thing is how players respond. I think it's a lot like relationships, you work a little harder when you know you're starting at 0 with a new person. I bet players are putting more effort into the small things they know are right rather than trying to follow someone's plan and fearing reprisal.

    Edmonton won in their 5th year in the league..?
     
  20. Tom Polakis Eternal Optimist

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2008
    Messages:
    2,911
    Likes Received:
    1,096
    Trophy Points:
    139
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Location:
    Tempe, AZ

    It was easy to do this for the current point in time using the Wikipedia list of coaches and some spreadsheet work. I don't know how you'd go about doing this for other seasons. You'd want a snapshot of coaches and their tenure in April of each year. Anyway, here's the current breakdown.

    1st season: 8 coaches (26 percent)
    2nd: 8 coaches (26 percent)
    3rd/4th: 8 coaches (26 percent)
    5th+: 7 coaches (22 percent)

    So if the numbers for this season is typical, the coaches with shorter tenure who appeared in Cup finals is high, but not exceedingly so.

    Nice work by the OP!

    [​IMG]
     
    Doctor No likes this.
  21. InfinityIggy Zagidulin's Dad

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2011
    Messages:
    33,170
    Likes Received:
    5,949
    Trophy Points:
    187
    SB Cash:
    $ 200,000
    Location:
    59.6097709,16.5425901
    Well as a Flames fan, this is certainly a nice silver lining to this day.
     
    Esq likes this.
  22. Kamiccolo Truly wonderful, the mind of a child is.

    Joined:
    Aug 30, 2011
    Messages:
    26,699
    Likes Received:
    15,998
    Trophy Points:
    177
    SB Cash:
    $ 100,001
    Occupation:
    IT
    Location:
    Undisclosed research facility
    See you in the finals.
     
    InfinityIggy likes this.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice
monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"