Why does hockey have the fewest busts?

Discussion in 'NHL Draft - Prospects' started by walker33, Jul 13, 2011.

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  1. walker33

    walker33 Registered User

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    I have been thinking today about other sports such as baseball, football and basketball and was thinking about their drafts and how those sports drafts don't seem to work out quite as well as NHL drafts.

    Why do you think?

    Maybe they don't scout as seriously or maybe its an easier game to adapt to (which i know its the hardest game around) i dunno I am just curious.

    If you look at the Number 1 picks in the NHL their have been few busts. But if you look at the MLB and NBA and NFL there are always a few busts in the lottery picks.
     
  2. GlassesJacketShirt

    GlassesJacketShirt Formerly known as BLASPHEMOUS

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    I think it's because hockey players, including lottery picks, haven't been given cars and benefits and big time American fame to convince themselves that they're god's gift to the Earth before they're even drafted, and thus are level-headed and want to work hard to get better.
     
  3. fong p88

    fong p88 Registered User

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    I'd say it's because the other sports are more likely to draft by position than BPA. I'd guess if you counted the guys from each draft who played in their respective the league the NFL would have the most since they are drafted much older.
     
  4. David A. Rainer

    David A. Rainer Registered User

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    What is the criteria for being a bust?

    Whether they make it to the top professional league? I would argue that the NFL wins at that.

    Number of average games played in a career (standardized for difference in games played per sport) per player drafted? I would argue that either the NFL or NBA wins at that.

    Something else?

    I think MLB clearly has the highest bust rate though no matter the criteria.
     
  5. jumptheshark

    jumptheshark Rebooting myself Sponsor

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    sorry

    But i disagree with the OP's theory that hockey has less busts

    what is your definition of a bust?

    playing 1 game in the nhl or 400 or are you going by pts?

    compare the number of players drafted in the NFL and MLB and the % of players who play 4 years plus compared to the NHL

    for the record the NBA has the fewiest bust as they only have 2 rounds and no minor leagues
     
  6. ponder

    ponder Registered User

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    I only closely follow the NHL and NBA. Comparing the two, in the NHL you have most players drafted out of the CHL, it makes it easy to compare them. It's easy to compare players within each of the 3 leagues (OHL, WHL and QMJHL), and not too tough to compare between those leagues either. After that you can slot in the USHL, European, etc. players, but you've already got a good, reliable framework set up - once you've got your CHL rankings down, it's not too tough to slot in the other players. In the NBA most players are drafted out of the NCAA, which is a massive, sprawling league - there are 345 NCAA Div I basketball teams in 32 different conferences! The quality of competition varies massively from conference to conference, it's really tough to say how good players are, you're constantly having to compare players who've played against totally different levels of competition, so you have to rely very heavily on just looking at tools, on court production sort of gets thrown out the window. It's not like the CHL where you see all the top prospects play against each other all the time, it's WAY more spread out in the NCAA, making it much harder to compare prospects to one another and get that basic framework down. Further complicating matters is the fact that NHLers are more or less all drafted at the same age, while with NBAers they'll be drafted after anywhere from 1 to 4 years in college, so you have to try to adjust for experience in your projections as well, adding further error.

    Also, in the NHL there are good leagues for the prospects to continue to develop in post-draft (they can stay in the CHL or whatever league they got drafted out of, progress to AHL or ECHL, etc.). In the NBA players are no longer eligible to return to school once drafted, and the D-league is a joke, for the most part guys have to immediately make an NBA team or they'll just be cast aside.

    Finally, in the NBA you just have generally 1-2 stars per team, and 8-10 rotation players. In the NHL there are twice as many players getting significant minutes, and roughly twice as many star type players, it's easier to be seen as a success.
     
    Last edited: Jul 13, 2011
  7. Steve

    Steve Registered User

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    I believe Hockey players (generally) have the longest amateur career after being drafted.... They have more time to develop don't they?
     
  8. ponder

    ponder Registered User

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    I think he's pretty clearly just looking at roughly the top of the draft. Basically fewer busts in the top 5, top 10, or 1st round in the NHL draft vs the NBA draft, that kind of idea.
     
  9. alcanalz

    alcanalz whys and wherefores

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    I think the NBA has less busts than the NHL but there are only two rounds. Hard to compare.

    Perhaps the NFL is just too different from college to the big league and it's tough to evaluate. One player might look good in college and be the consensus great pick but his game won't transition that well to the NFL. I don't know, I'll let other people argue the NFL prospects as that's not my thing.

    Baseball is just too different. You draft kids, hope you can sign them, and then pray that eventually, three-to-five years down the line, they'll play a game for your team. I mean, there's like 40 rounds in the draft.

    All of these sports are really too different to compare prospects.

    Edit: If you're just comparing first-rounders or top ten picks then someone crunch the numbers so we can actually see. That could take some time however.
     
  10. BadHammy*

    BadHammy* Guest

    Why does hockey have the fewest busts? Because they're not allowed to draft girls!
     
  11. Filip Zadina

    Filip Zadina ~

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    I'm not into any other sports, but, I'm wondering to the other sports have leagues like the CHL? I live in Detroit and everyone seems to think that they'll be a star in the NBA/NFL by playing on the highschool teams... Which seems pretty rare in Hockey.
     
  12. r0bert8841

    r0bert8841 Registered User

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    Lets bring some actual statistics into this thread to compare. Its hard to compare just on previous knowledge.
     
  13. r0bert8841

    r0bert8841 Registered User

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    They have the NCAA
     
  14. Breakfast of Champs

    Breakfast of Champs Registered User

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    Basketball is pretty good. since 1979 23 #1 overall picks have gone on to be all stars with guys like lebron, howard, iverson, griffin, weber, rose, magic, shaq, duncan and ming all being #1 picks. I think baseball is the biggest bust potential, because like some have said before they're kids and you hope someday they will play, even one of the most hyped picks ever in bryce harper started his career in A and probably wont play in the majors this season. Football probably has the money issue. Guys are already super rich and famous and havent played a single game (jamarcus russell) and probably dont train as hard as they would if they had to work for their money. A lot of people praise hockey for having the rookie salary cap and want it to be in all sports.
     
  15. Booom

    Booom Registered User

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    Amateur career? Maybe but the average MLB player is in the minors until his mid 20's or even later. The Angels just called up a kid and it's a huge deal because he's 19, in hockey that's every year.
     
  16. FLAMES666

    FLAMES666 Registered User

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    NFL hands down has the least amount of busts. Most players make a career in the NFL from the 1st to the 3rd round unlike hockey.
     
  17. David A. Rainer

    David A. Rainer Registered User

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    Baseball has a myriad of minor leagues with different levels of competition, winter ball, international development camps, etc.
     
  18. Ozamataz Buckshank

    Ozamataz Buckshank Registered User

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    Well that could also be attributed to the huge roster size and the need for very specific role players.
     
  19. squidz*

    squidz* Guest

    Depending on the definition of bust, MLB has to have the most since they have like 3285972345 rounds in their draft and only have so many players on a team. The NFL probably has the highest rate of draft picks playing (x) games in the NFL, but that's because they have so many players on every team and only 7 rounds in the draft. Basketball might not have many rounds, but they only have what, 9 players per team?

    If anything, I would say the NHL must attribute any success it has in avoiding busts to the development system. How many players are drafted and immediately play in the big league? Also, when players receive their first contract, they're not just handed lumps and lumps of money then set to go on their merry way for a while. While the average person might think the minor league pay on a two way contract is nice, it's not like the millions that NFL rookies frequently get.
     
  20. walker33

    walker33 Registered User

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    Im just saying i saw guys like matt bush in the mlb number 1 overall pick still hasnt played a game hes 25 and you have guys like jamarcus russel in the nfl who is horrible. I don't know it was crossing my mind i love the insight and i am glad soem people agree and some people disagree

    Thanks for the opinions
     
  21. Sticks and Pucks

    Sticks and Pucks Registered User

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    MLB players have more time to develop with all the different minor league levels one has to go through before he makes the majors.
     
  22. Ozamataz Buckshank

    Ozamataz Buckshank Registered User

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    Matt Bush was the number 1 overall pick because San Deigo did not want to pay the big bonus that other players would demand. It's an unfortunate issue in the MLB, where the rich get richer because they can afford top talents salary demands and pay over slot to keep kids from going to college.
     
  23. molsonmuscle360

    molsonmuscle360 Registered User

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    Baseball is the hardest sport to draft for. You are really basing everything off of potential, you know there is mechanical problems you will need to really work on to get them to high levels. And also a high percentage of pitchers who throw insane smoke when they are young throw out their arms. I had a friend drafted in the 3rd round by the Mets in the later part of the 90's and he blew out his arm his first year in University ball.

    Basketball is another high injury sport, most of the busts of the last decade were due to injury or because of horrid scouting by the team (everyone else knew better players were available)

    Football is due to the massive difference in styles of the game. The NCAA football talent pool is so focused on a handful of schools out of many. There are just a few huge fish in a pond of little fishes. A quarterback that totally wrecks college secondary's because he can run the option and throw ok is going to get murdered by someone like Ray Lewis who runs as fast as 3/4's of the college running backs and hits like a truck.

    Hockey has a much more gradual progression to the bigs then all but baseball. You start in Junior playing minimal minutes as a 16 year old, by the time you are 18 you are playing a ton, and then 95% of guys spend some time in the AHL where they can refine their game against men who are just a step down from the NHL.
     
  24. Darrelle Lundqvist

    Darrelle Lundqvist Swagelin

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    This. :handclap:
     
  25. ottawah

    ottawah Registered User

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    If you just look at number 1's yes, but when you look at the breadth of a draft, especially the first round, hockey is generally coming in third, just a touch behind basketball and well behind football.

    Hockey usually has 3 - 5 first rounders every year who never play a game, which does not happen in the other sports, and usually only around 50% become regulars and play enough to earn a pension, again far less than basketball and football.


    Football has less busts because the players are three years older when drafted, so you know more about them. Basketball tends to be 1 - 3 years older. That IMHO is the sole reason why. Move the hockey draft back a year, and you would see quite a change in the rankings.
     

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