Why did the Leafs lose to the Flyers in 2003?

[Golden_Jet]

Weird back then, Toronto had Ottawa’s number, Philly had the Leafs number and Ottawa had Phillys number.
In 2002 Ottawa vs Philly, the flyers only scored 2 goals in the 5 game series, and had Ottawa won game 1 in OT instead of Philly, then Philly wouldn’t have scored any goals in the series.

 

[TradeforWendel]

That Flyers team was uncannily good at limiting quality scoring chances. They made Chechmanek look like a god, but it was purely because of how good they were at pushing chances to the outside. A very frustrating series.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Weird back then, Toronto had Ottawa’s number, Philly had the Leafs number and Ottawa had Phillys number.
In 2002 Ottawa vs Philly, the flyers only scored 2 goals in the 5 game series, and had Ottawa won game 1 in OT instead of Philly, then Philly wouldn’t have scored any goals in the series.

I know Philadelphia defeated Toronto in the 2003 and 2004 playoffs, however did they really have the Leafs number?

In 1999 Toronto defeated Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference Quarter-Final, so is it was a 4 year gap until they meet again in 2003.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Yeah most likely. A big reason that Toronto consistently beat Ottawa was that they got incredible goaltending performances in those series, as well as bad performances from Ottawa goalies. Prime examples would be CuJo in 2001, and on the other side, Lalime in 2004 (particularly Game 7 and the Nieuwendyk goals). Of course, it could've happened again in '03, Belfour was a good goalie after all. But it would've had to be a much better performance than he put in against Philly.

In 2003, Ottawa definitely looked like the superior team on paper (which wasn't necessarily the case in 2000 & 2002). 113 points to 98. A +81 GD to a +28. Overall better special teams (and better discipline, spending ~3 minutes more than opposition on the PP per game, the opposite of Toronto). They controlled 54.5% of shots all season compared to Toronto's 47.0%. In addition, their roster was over 4 years younger than Toronto's on average. Of course anything can happen in a best of seven series. But if there was any year that Ottawa was primed to break the streak, it was '03.

You are forgetting in 2004 when Toronto defeated Ottawa they had Ed Belfour who won them that series and had 3 shutouts.

 

[67Leafs67]

You are forgetting in 2004 when Toronto defeated Ottawa they had Ed Belfour who won them that series and had 3 shutouts.

I'm not forgetting that. I said that it could've happened because Belfour was a good goalie, but his poor performance against Philadelphia (both in '03 & '04) suggests that he was just as capable of putting in a bad series as a good one, and thus there is no guarantee (in fact, it is probably more unlikely) that he would again pitch three shutouts in one series.

An insane goaltending mismatch like the one in '04 seems to have been necessary for Toronto essentially every time they beat Ottawa, because in nearly every series, Ottawa outplayed them everywhere except the crease. I'm not saying that it couldn't have happened, but I am saying that the probability of it happening a fifth time is somewhat low.

 

[Antropovsky]

Wasnt it a bad giveaway or pinch by leetch that ended up being the odd man rush for roenick who scored in OT?

Not reading through all pages, someone orobably has already referenced it.

The real pity was not getting Leetch for the next season due to the lockout.

 

[67Leafs67]

That Flyers team was uncannily good at limiting quality scoring chances. They made Chechmanek look like a god, but it was purely because of how good they were at pushing chances to the outside. A very frustrating series.

That's pretty much the size of it in my opinion. The Flyers were 1st in the NHL in GA, and 2nd in shots against, and had the 3rd best Sv% in the NHL despite neither Cechmanek nor Esche being particularly gifted goaltenders. I would expect them to perform very well in terms of xG and scoring chance metrics if the NHL tracked that sort of thing in 2002-03. Definitely a Hitchcock kind of team.

 

[67Leafs67]

Wasnt it a bad giveaway or pinch by leetch that ended up being the odd man rush for roenick who scored in OT?

Not reading through all pages, someone orobably has already referenced it.

The real pity was not getting Leetch for the next season due to the lockout.

That was in the '04 series. The '03 series ended with the Leafs getting stomped 6-1 in Game 7, outshot 36-19.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I'm not forgetting that. I said that it could've happened because Belfour was a good goalie, but his poor performance against Philadelphia (both in '03 & '04) suggests that he was just as capable of putting in a bad series as a good one, and thus there is no guarantee (in fact, it is probably more unlikely) that he would again pitch three shutouts in one series.

An insane goaltending mismatch like the one in '04 seems to have been necessary for Toronto essentially every time they beat Ottawa, because in nearly every series, Ottawa outplayed them everywhere except the crease. I'm not saying that it couldn't have happened, but I am saying that the probability of it happening a fifth time is somewhat low.

I realize at the time no one knew Toronto would have played Ottawa in the 2004 playoff, since they didn't get to play them in the 2003 playoffs. However my point was since he was saw Belfour win that series in 2004 with those 3 shutouts, why can't we assume he might have had that performance in 2003 if they get past the Flyers to play the Senators in the Eastern Conference Semi-Final.

 

[67Leafs67]

I realize at the time no one knew Toronto would have played Ottawa in the 2004 playoff, since they didn't get to play them in the 2003 playoffs. However my point was since he was saw Belfour win that series in 2004 with those 3 shutouts, why can't we assume he might have had that performance in 2003 if they get past the Flyers to play the Senators in the Eastern Conference Semi-Final.

Again, I'm not at all saying that Belfour was incapable of putting in the performance that the Leafs likely would have needed to beat Ottawa in a hypothetical 2003 series. I'm not saying you can't assume that Belfour would might have had that performance in 2003. I'm just saying that it is a very bold assumption, and not something that is at all likely to happen. It is much more likely that Belfour plays at or around his season average performance, and that isn't enough to compensate for Toronto (likely) being outplayed by a superior Ottawa roster.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Again, I'm not at all saying that Belfour was incapable of putting in the performance that the Leafs likely would have needed to beat Ottawa in a hypothetical 2003 series. I'm not saying you can't assume that Belfour would might have had that performance in 2003. I'm just saying that it is a very bold assumption, and not something that is at all likely to happen. It is much more likely that Belfour plays at or around his season average performance, and that isn't enough to compensate for Toronto (likely) being outplayed by a superior Ottawa roster.

What were the major changes between the Senators roster in 2003 compared to their roster in 2004 when Toronto defeated them in the playoffs? If it was basically the same maybe Toronto wins a 2003 playoff series against them.

 

[FraumBallard]

Zeke.
Did you watch any of these games.
Sundin/Roenick.
Who played bigger?
Roenick.
Always.
Yuskevich/Lumme.
Same thing.
Everything is numbers for you.
I wonder why.
Hmmm.
If I know the game I don't need numbers.
Seems logical.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

What were the major changes between the Senators roster in 2003 compared to their roster in 2004 when Toronto defeated them in the playoffs? If it was basically the same maybe Toronto wins a 2003 playoff series against them.

Not who you replied to, but I'd say it’s more about how the Leafs changed between the 2002-03 to 2003-04, not how the Sens changed.

The biggest differences would be that Toronto in '04 was a better team than the one in '03, and Lalime played much better in the '03 playoffs than he did in '04 (1.82 GAA and .924sv% in '03 vs a 1.96 GAA and .906sv% in '04). Belfour was also better in '04 (2.09 GAA, .929sv%) than he was in '03 (2.71 GAA, .915sv%).

The additions of Nieuwendyk and Leetch (and to a lesser extent Francis) had the Leafs in a better spot than the previous season, whereas Ottawa's roster remained largely the same. 5 of Nieuwendyk's 6 goals for us came in that Ottawa series, and 4 of Leetch's 8 assists came in the Sens series as well.

Of course the Leafs could've pulled off another upset in '03 like they did in '01 but that wasn't a guarantee. The Leafs weren't as deep in '03 like they were in '04, Lalime wasn't a sieve in '03 like he was in '04 (seriously, the guy only allowed 3 or more goals 4 times in 18 games in '03), and Eddie the Eagle was good in '03, but not great like he would go on to be for us in '04.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Not who you replied to, but I'd say the biggest differences would be that Toronto in '04 was a better team than the one in '03, and Lalime played much better in the '03 playoffs than he did in '04 (1.82 GAA and .924sv% in '03 vs a 1.96 GAA and .906sv% in '04). Belfour was also better in '04 (2.09 GAA, .929sv%) than he was in '03 (2.71 GAA, .915sv%).

The additions of Nieuwendyk and Leetch (and to a lesser extent Francis) had the Leafs in a better spot than the previous season, whereas Ottawa's roster remained largely the same. 5 of Nieuwendyk's 6 goals for us came in that Ottawa series, and 4 of Leetch's 8 assists came in the Sens series as well.

Of course the Leafs could've pulled off another upset in '03 like they did in '01 but that wasn't a guarantee. The Leafs weren't as deep in '03 like they were in '04, Lalime wasn't a sieve in '03 like he was in '04 (seriously, the guy only allowed 3 or more goals 4 times in 18 games in '03), and Eddie the Eagle was good in '03, but not great like he would go on to be for us in '04.

I guess the additions of Nieuwendyk and Leetch in 2004 obviously helped and is a reason why they won that series. The other being the play of Belfour and his 3 shutouts.

Obviously Nieuwendyk and Leetch were not on the 2003 team and it's easy to look back with hindsight. Plus like I said before no one knew they would play Ottawa in the 2004 playoffs until that was made official.

I was also asking did Ottawa make any major changes on their roster between their 2003 and 2004. I know they had Alfredsson, Hossa, Havlat, Redden, Chara, Bonk, Fisher, Phillips, and Lalime both those years. So would the 2003 Maple Leafs minus Nieuwendyk, Leetch, and Francis not be able to defeat them if they had meet in the Eastern Conference Semi-Final? Would it have been in the Senators players heads since Ottawa lost to Toronto in 2000, 2001, and 2002. Plus in 2001 is when the Leafs swept them despite being the underdogs and in 2002 the Senators had a chance to eliminate the Leafs in Game 6 and blew an early 2-0 lead.

 

[67Leafs67]

What were the major changes between the Senators roster in 2003 compared to their roster in 2004 when Toronto defeated them in the playoffs? If it was basically the same maybe Toronto wins a 2003 playoff series against them.

The Senators' roster in 2003 was nearly identical to that of 2004. Still Lalime in net. They dropped Rachunek & Hnidy and added de Vries on the back-end, but otherwise the same. Up front they lost Arvedson & van Allen, but brought in Bondra & Vermette. So no major changes in personnel.

The teams finished with different numbers of points, the '03 Sens with 113, the '04 Sens with 102. But when you adjust for goal differential & strength of schedule, they both come out with an identical 0.88 SRS (a rating system that Hockey-Reference put together). In fact, the teams are eerily similar.

Category​	2002-03​	2003-04​
SRS​	0.88​	0.88​
GF​	263​	262​
GA​	182​	189​
Sv%​	.910​	.907​

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The main difference was that the Senators got slightly better goaltending in 2002-03, allowed a few less goals, and thus had a couple more wins than ties/OTL to grab those eleven points. Pretty much identical rosters and identical results (even down to shots for & against).

So absolutely, the 2002-03 Toronto Maple Leafs could've have beaten the Ottawa Senators in a playoff series. Any team can win any playoff series, even if they get majorly outplayed. It is no secret that the NHL is kind of known for upsets, and the fact that anything can happen between any two teams in a series as short as best-of-seven. However, I still wouldn't think that it is likely Toronto would've beaten Ottawa in 2003. Even in the 2003-04 series, Toronto won, but were significantly outplayed. They were outshot 238-154 over the course of seven games (an average of 34-22 per game). Now, in that series, Belfour stood on his head, pitched three shutouts, and had a .954 SV%, but that is highly unusual, and not likely repeatable. If you replayed that series ten times more, Ottawa likely wins most of them.

That being said, the 2003-04 Leafs were better than the 2002-03 Leafs as well. They were actually outshooting opponents, finished with a nearly double SRS (0.26 vs 0.48), went from a +28 GD to a +38 GD despite dropping from .914 goaltending to .906 goaltending. Their special teams were better, they were playing more disciplined hockey (taking an excess of only ~1 PIM per game over their opponent, opposed to ~3 the past season), and their roster was better. They swapped out Svehla, Wesley, Lumme, & Housley for Leetch, Marchment, Klee, & Johansson. Up front they retained the same top six from '03 (Sundin, Mogilny, Roberts, Tucker, Nolan, & Reichel), while adding Francis, Nieuwendyk, & Ponikarovsky to the fold. They lost Hoglund & Corson, but brought in Kilger & Stajan.

So all in all, the Leafs team that was better in '04 still got dominated by the Senators, but thanks to Belfour standing on his head, squeaked out the Round 1 win. I'm not inclined to believe that a worse Leafs' roster in '03 would be able to outplay the Senators, or would get as lucky with 3 shutouts from Belfour. It is possible, but not probable.

 

[X66]

Those Flyer teams were really good.

 

[Buds17]

The Leafs did well to get out to 1-0 and 2-1 leads in the series against the higher seeded Flyers. The Flyers did win more of the games where the score wasn't as close though. The Leafs only winning one game on the road also meant that they'd have to be perfect at home in order to advance. That's not typically the easiest of tasks. Unfortunately, the finale was a rout... not to mention that the soon-to-be Mr. Game 7 was a part of the opposition as well!

 

[LeafsNation75]

The Leafs did well to get out to 1-0 and 2-1 leads in the series against the higher seeded Flyers. The Flyers did win more of the games where the score wasn't as close though. The Leafs only winning one game on the road also meant that they'd have to be perfect at home in order to advance. That's not typically the easiest of tasks. Unfortunately, the finale was a rout... not to mention that the soon-to-be Mr. Game 7 was a part of the opposition as well!

I remember Game 4 in 2003 went to triple overtime and if the Leafs win that they go up in the series 3-1. So if anything that was their best chance to get a strangle hold on the series.

Also all the games played in Toronto had multiple overtimes periods. Game 2 went to double overtime, Game 3 went into overtime, and Game 6 went into double overtime.

 

[Buds17]

I remember Game 4 in 2003 went to triple overtime and if the Leafs win that they go up in the series 3-1. So if anything that was their best chance to get a strangle hold on the series.

Also all the games played in Toronto had multiple overtimes periods. Game 2 went to double overtime, Game 3 went into overtime, and Game 6 went into double overtime.

Agreed. It was definitely crazy that all of the OT games happened in Toronto; and nothing less than double OT to boot. I'd very much like to believe that the Leafs would have moved on had they won that Game 4.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Agreed. It was definitely crazy that all of the OT games happened in Toronto; and nothing less than double OT to boot. I'd very much like to believe that the Leafs would have moved on had they won that Game 4.

If Toronto wins Game 4 in triple overtime and everything else happens the same way, the Leafs ends up winning the series 4-2. They would still have lost Game 5 in Philadelphia and won Game 6 in double overtime back in Toronto.

 

[Ciao]

They won four games while we didn’t

This pretty much sums it up.

Thre only thing I could really add is that it was probably all Dubas' fault anyway.

 

[Swervin81]

The revisionist history of not being tough enough in the early 2000's is laughable. The team routinely finished top 5 in PIM and had the likes of Tucker, Roberts, Domi, McCabe, Yushkevich, Marchment, Travis Green, Tom Fitzgerald, Corson (to an extent), McAuley (who eventually became Owen Nolan, another tough SOB). Does no one remember that 2002 series against the Isles where we beat them by simply just being the biggest assholes out there (2nd biggest assholes, next to the Isles fans booing the Canadian anthem).

I touched on this earlier, but our problem was we had no skill depth and completely lacked discipline. If you slowed down Sundin... you slowed down everybody. And the lack of discipline is both in the "taking stupid penalties" sense and in the standard hockey sense. The style of play was very fun to watch. Hard hitting and aggressive risk taking, but we would always meet our end and run out of steam at some point when well oiled machines led by Robinson/Burns/Hitch would not be rattled by it. Teams like the Flyers and Devils who always gave the Leafs fits those years were the two most structured, well-oiled defensive machines. The Flyers had a lot of skill depth up and down the lineup to go with that structured discipline, but their goaltending sucked. The Devils also had plenty of depth (they were routinely near the top of the league in goals for, despite being an eyesore to watch) and were a defensive dynasty with a hall of fame goalie to boot. Meanwhile, we had no one outside of Sundin who could reliably drive offense. Combine that with a very shallow D past the top pair and the results are what you'd expect. The only time we ever had a D that was good on paper was with McCabe/Kaberle and Berard/Yushkevich and Danny Markov being a fan favorite, but most of that D depth eroded due to bad luck (Berard's eye getting poked out, Yushkevich's blood clot...)

 

[zeke]

. The only time we ever had a D that was good on paper was with McCabe/Kaberle and Berard/Yushkevich and Danny Markov being a fan favorite, but most of that D depth eroded due to bad luck (Berard's eye getting poked out, Yushkevich's blood clot...)

agreed with most everything you said - especially with the Flyers skill depth at the time (i.e. young Gagne and Williams as 3rd line depth).....

....BUT...Berard and McCabe never played on the leafs together. McCabe was Berard's replacement when he was injured (and cost us Karpovtsev).

(In order of Even Strength TOI):

98-99 Playoffs

Markov 22 - Yushkevich 27
Berard 21 - Cote 33
Kaberle 20 - Karpovtsev 28

99-00 Playoffs

Markov 23 - Yushkevich 28
Kaberle 21 - Berard 22 (* injured before playoffs, replaced by Diduck)
Karpovtsev 29 - Cross 29

00-01 Playoffs

Markov 24 - Yushkevich 29
Kaberle 23 - McCabe 25
Berg 23 - Cross 30

 

[CreeksideStrangler]

We lost because 3'rd OA draft pick Aki Berg was playing on the Leafs

 

[Koolboss]

Still getting nightmares from the OT goal from JR.