Why did Backstrom never reach the next level?

InjuredChoker

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Can any of the fancy statters dig up Backstrom's numbers the last several years and see where he stacks up against some of the other names being mentioned?

went with last three seasons (10-13) what includes his down season, though.

he's one of the best on pp. but on es, he loses to lots of players in point production and on-ice goals. pretty good numbers in goals against, as we know he is pretty good defensively but one of the best.

possession numbers are solid too, but not upper echelon.

on even strength he loses to many/most of the top-tier centers. but there is his down year, and caps haven't been strong even strength team for a while. at least compared to what they were and how strong other teams are. one player can do only so much.

some thing that i noticed.. he's been very strong goals for and against wise with carlson.. 63% of goals scored come from the caps when nick and carlson are on ice together.. number is 50.9% when nick is without carlson. same numbers are 60.5% and 54.1% with and without green, respectively. for that three year period 55.6% of all goals scored come from caps when nick is on ice. fwiw, caps are at 51.3% for that time period.

anyway, i agree nick hasn't looked the same since bourque hit. though i ran the numbers and even discounting the games from that 11-12 season after that hit, nick was around on same pace for es points as he was for last year.

that is assuming i didn't **** up with my calculations.
 

Stewie G

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went with last three seasons (10-13) what includes his down season, though.

he's one of the best on pp. but on es, he loses to lots of players in point production and on-ice goals. pretty good numbers in goals against, as we know he is pretty good defensively but one of the best.

possession numbers are solid too, but not upper echelon.

on even strength he loses to many/most of the top-tier centers. but there is his down year, and caps haven't been strong even strength team for a while. at least compared to what they were and how strong other teams are. one player can do only so much.

some thing that i noticed.. he's been very strong goals for and against wise with carlson.. 63% of goals scored come from the caps when nick and carlson are on ice together.. number is 50.9% when nick is without carlson. same numbers are 60.5% and 54.1% with and without green, respectively. for that three year period 55.6% of all goals scored come from caps when nick is on ice. fwiw, caps are at 51.3% for that time period.

anyway, i agree nick hasn't looked the same since bourque hit. though i ran the numbers and even discounting the games from that 11-12 season after that hit, nick was around on same pace for es points as he was for last year.

that is assuming i didn't **** up with my calculations.
Thanks! I appreciate the time you spent working on that.

Did you happen to do any rankings? You said he had solid possession numbers but not upper echelon and was wondering where that left him. Top 20?
 

InjuredChoker

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Thanks! I appreciate the time you spent working on that.

Did you happen to do any rankings? You said he had solid possession numbers but not upper echelon and was wondering where that left him. Top 20?

he's around top20 with centers. around 60 with all forwards.

fenwick (all shots - blocked shots)

corsi (all shots + blocked shots)

however, bäckström is little better if one uses zone starts adjusted numbers. he doesn't start as often in off. zone as sedins for example and that hurts his numbers a bit. check zone adj. corsi here and fenwick here. though sedins still have good possession numbers.
 

FreshFruit

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Better question is - what's the worth of Backstrom on todays market?
I have no complains about him, he's doing OK job up there but our first line is terrible at 5 on 5 game and they play practically no def. Someone said about puck possession problems too, agree.
 

InjuredChoker

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Better question is - what's the worth of Backstrom on todays market?
I have no complains about him, he's doing OK job up there but our first line is terrible at 5 on 5 game and they play practically no def. Someone said about puck possession problems too, agree.

a lot. a ton.

arguably elite 1c tied to very friendly cap hit for the next 6 years after this season.

1 centers rarely hit the market. almost never. many teams would be drooling all over him.
 

FreshFruit

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a lot. a ton.

arguably elite 1c tied to very friendly cap hit for the next 6 years after this season.

1 centers rarely hit the market. almost never. many teams would be drooling all over him.

With McPhee's trade history... :sarcasm:

But, if we can get some physical beast that can play solid two way and in the process feed Ovi with pucks and shoot I would go for it.

We need a stud center who can play def. Our whole first line is in -. It's not a coincidence. When our first line is playing and opponent's team has a puck it's practically a PP situation(I can't watch Ovi when we're defing). With weak 5 on 5 and puck possession play we're in the black hole.
 

InjuredChoker

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With McPhee's trade history... :sarcasm:

But, if we can get some physical beast that can play solid two way and in the process feed Ovi with pucks and shoot I would go for it.

We need a stud center who can play def. Our whole first line is in -. It's not a coincidence. When our first line is playing and opponent's team has a puck it's practically a PP situation(I can't watch Ovi when we're defing). With weak 5 on 5 and puck possession play we're in the black hole.

i think you just described backes.

and st louis happends to need elite #1C badly. backes is great but not elite tier. i think they love backes out there but would probably give up on him for bäckström. he does have ntc, though. ofc stl would need to add to balance it out.

i wouldn't trade nick but that's just me. but man.. nick on other top 6 line and backes with ovy would be so great.
 

FreshFruit

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i think you just described backes.

and st louis happends to need elite #1C badly. backes is great but not elite tier. i think they love backes out there but would probably give up on him for bäckström. he does have ntc, though. ofc stl would need to add to balance it out.

i wouldn't trade nick but that's just me. but man.. nick on other top 6 line and backes with ovy would be so great.

aww wet dream that'll never happen.

MoJo - Backes - Ovechkin
Erat/Burakovsky - Grabovski - Kuznetsov

With solid defence we would rock, hard. :yo:
 

SimplySensational

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Better question is - what's the worth of Backstrom on todays market?
I have no complains about him, he's doing OK job up there but our first line is terrible at 5 on 5 game and they play practically no def. Someone said about puck possession problems too, agree.

Backstrom plays no defense.

Want to dominate the first line, go below the goal line because Backstrom won't and you don't have to worry about a 3 on 2 the other way, because Backstrom will just throw a sloppy backhand pass.
 

Burakovsky95*

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I'm in no way in support of dealing Backstrom but if we got insane value back then that is the type of move that changes a franchise and potentially one that saves a certain man's job if it works out.
 

Zoidberg Jesus

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I don't understand why we don't shelter the Ovechkin-Backstrom line the way the Sedins are. Boudreau did it up until 09-10 (Backstrom's 101 point season) and since then Nick hasn't seen above 52% OZone starts in a season. It's not like we need him playing in the defensive zone, we've got the centers now with Grabo and Laich to field a great two-way and shutdown line, respectively.
 

artilector

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Joe Thornton is neither a particularly speedy, nor explosive player. Heck, neither is Henrik Sedin for that matter. You can take over a game without being a speedster.

The fact that Allen Iverson was really good at basketball without being tall doesn't mean that it's not beneficial to be tall to be successful in basketball.. Some have other qualities to compensate, some don't.

Also, I can't say I agree with Thornton being a guy that takes over games. Not from what I saw, certainly not in playoffs. And Sedin might very well be faster than Backstrom, in a sport where every bit counts.

In any case, (IMO) explosiveness is the one ingredient that is missing the most from Backstrom's individual game. What do you think?

Who was that center for Boston back in the day that used to pass well and put up lots of points but eventually fell off on account of being slow? Allison, no? I'm sure there's lots of examples of players with great hands whose NHL careers didn't quite pan out as planned because their skating was not up to par.
 

Dream Big

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In '09-'10 Backstrom was 3rd in total points amongst centerman and 3rd in ES points. The next year he was 20th in both, and last year he was 10th in total points and 12th in ES points.

Backstrom's PP/ES point breakdown appears right in line with everyone else as far as point producing centermen are concerned IMO.

Could 09-10 be an anomaly? See Jeff Schultz +50 http://capitals.nhl.com/club/player.htm?id=8471240

His overall points are okay. Goals are on always the low side.
 

txpd

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its only an anomaly if you think the ovechkin of the past 40 games is also one. backstrom was 3rd in assists last season and you can make a case that the shortened season worked against him.

I think backstrom's problems have been coming of age problems, getting used to his lifestyle, and the weight that the playoff failures carry.
 

RandyHolt

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We are talking about reaching the next level. He long ago had reached the level of being 3rd in assists blah blah

images
 

Mothra

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38 goals and 125 assists on the power play = 163 points in 425 games.

Playing on the power play is a big boost for any player.

Perhaps all player's points should be compared minus power play points?

It would then be a more fair comparison of all centres. Not just centres that get power play time. Another variable in powerplay time is some teams get more penalties and some less.

So putting up points in the PP is a bad thing?

news to me
 

Ajax1995

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Dec 9, 2002
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Could 09-10 be an anomaly?

His overall points are okay. Goals are on always the low side.

Sure '09-'10 could be as far as total points go but that doesn't seem to be the case as far as the breakdown between total and ES points goes, which is what I was using those figures to illustrate.

You seemed to indicate that you felt Backstrom feasted on the PP to a higher degree than most of his peers and I was simply pointing out that that doesn't seem to be the case.
 

marcel snapshot

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I don't understand why we don't shelter the Ovechkin-Backstrom line the way the Sedins are. Boudreau did it up until 09-10 (Backstrom's 101 point season) and since then Nick hasn't seen above 52% OZone starts in a season. It's not like we need him playing in the defensive zone, we've got the centers now with Grabo and Laich to field a great two-way and shutdown line, respectively.

Agree with this. Also don't get why we put 90-19-8 out after we've scored a goal (or the other team scores a goal). I mean, sure, it's our first line and all, but their puck possession and territorial play 5 v 5 has been so bad this year, why would you have any expectation that that line would be able to extend or generate momentum following a score.
 

Liberati0n*

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its only an anomaly if you think the ovechkin of the past 40 games is also one. backstrom was 3rd in assists last season and you can make a case that the shortened season worked against him.

I think backstrom's problems have been coming of age problems, getting used to his lifestyle, and the weight that the playoff failures carry.

Nice pun.

Mothra said:
So putting up points in the PP is a bad thing?

news to me
It's not, but it can be a product of the unit the player's on or how it's run, and it's viewed as unsustainable in the playoffs. A majority of the game is also played at even strength, and you want to be able to trust your players to tilt things in the right direction there. Backstrom is definitely an elite PP player though.
 

Holtbyisms

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Saying his powerplay points inflate his numbers is an absolute joke. "Do you even watch the games?" :D

Seriously though, find me an "elite center" who is not on their teams first PP unit. Has our powerplay been more efficient than some of their, sure, but do you know why? Because we have an elite center distributing the puck on it.
 

capitalsrock

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Sep 7, 2012
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Backstrom plays no defense.

Want to dominate the first line, go below the goal line because Backstrom won't and you don't have to worry about a 3 on 2 the other way, because Backstrom will just throw a sloppy backhand pass.

This is ridiculous

You choose two things to criticize Backstrom on and they are his passing and defensive play

Pay attention

These are two of the strongest parts of Backstrom's game
 

FloridaCap

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Jun 30, 2012
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This is ridiculous

You choose two things to criticize Backstrom on and they are his passing and defensive play

Pay attention

These are two of the strongest parts of Backstrom's game


Yeah, I don't know where the hell he got that from.

Criticize his shooting confidence, sure. Criticize his speed, fine. Criticize his faceoffs from time to time, go ahead. But his passing is elite and his defense is good.
 

Acallabeth

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^, ^^, I agree with you guys, but as our fatso used to say, the problem with super-skilled guys is that they think they can do anything.

Describes Green perfectly and also fits for Backstrom's passing.
 

Acallabeth

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Note: Henrik Sedin is the Captain, has a Hart and Art Ross trophy and makes $6.1.

Will make $7M from the next season ;)

Give me the anti-Flyers Backstrom all day. He shoots, he hustles, he's physical. Now relearn not to overhold the puck, and he's back to elite.
 

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