Who's our 11th best prospect?

Who's our 11th best prospect?


  • Total voters
    92
  • Poll closed .

The Zetterberg Era

Ball Hockey Sucks
Nov 8, 2011
40,957
11,577
Ft. Myers, FL
During last preseason I felt Hickett’s size was exposed so you’re not being unreasonable however Hicketts is listed at 5’8 on every single source I have seen. He is also a thiccboi more capable of playing out of his weight class than VS imo.

Second on this note, I felt he looked a lot better when he played during the regular season. FWIW.




I don't feel this point favours either player TBH. Both probably cap out as 3rd pairing dmen with PP upside.

I would also contend that Hickett's gifts are every bit as quality as Saarijarvi's while being much further along in his development curve. And this is the key for me. Similar upside with one guy having accomplished quite a bit more up until this point.

I respect that opinion. I don't really agree that they have similar upside.

On the height thing I have yet to hear from anyone that he is legitimately 5'8" even which is pretty tough as well. He is incredibly strong no argument at all there. I know Saarijarvi is near his actual height, all I ever hear on Hicketts is he is generously listed at 5'8" and I have heard that a lot and from people who have met him in person.

I thought he was okay during the regular season. I thought some bounces went his way, a couple of our chances were buried while he was out there and a few of his mistakes didn't immediately wind up in the back of our net. I do like the fearlessness in his game and his approach. He is an easy player to root for so make no mistake I hope he somehow does become a solid NHL contributor.

Here would be another difference in terms of my opinion limiting his upside with you though in terms of third pairing PP guy. I think we have a real problem if Hicketts sniffs the PP. We are a really bad team so he might for a quick trial. I know the Wings hope he can carve that role but I certainly don't. Hronek and Cholowski both intrigue me a heck of a lot more here. Vili has a plus shot, skating to manipulate the zone and passing you look for out of a PP guy as well. Put in players we hopefully draft or add in free agency and add in the fact the modern NHL one of your two units is likely to feature a fourth forward and I just don't see it. I see Saarijarvi's attributes for third pairing right handed PP guy as significantly in his favor when comparing him to Hicketts. Again he is also a plus skater something you will find in almost all undersized guys that were successful where Hicketts is not. To me Hicketts knocking it out of the park becomes Francis Bouillon. 3rd pairing undersized PK tank of a player who loves physical play. We will see but I am not bullish on that either. Not really super high on Saarijarvi at this point but I think he can still get this on track.

Again I really do hope all of these guys can achieve their dreams and play in the NHL. They all can make it happen, I really do want to believe that. But some would need an awful lot to go right to stay a long time.

I mean it is all sort of a feel thing mixing and matching potential and the current player while voting on these anyway so it isn't surprising we differ. But I don't have a couple of these guys real high. The reality of the players at this point is we are unlikely to be truly embarrassed about any of the claims. They are long-shots to carve out significant NHL roles for the most part. I think Smith, Pearson and Saarijarvi have the potential to fit in certain roles and see the value and upside. But is Givani more than a fourth line guy, I am not sure, I see third sometimes but he is an extremely likely player to play NHL hockey. All the scouts say that, he can play up and down and plays a heavy game. But he isn't real popular on this board either and it is because you can easily see him as a nothing 4th liner and that isn't all that exciting. But for me he has the best floor here not Hicketts when looking at that angle. But third pairing guys you like rooting for aren't necessarily going to have a ton of happiness.
 
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Leibinger6

Registered User
Jul 26, 2018
228
165
Givani Smith. Will likely never be a top 6 guy but his path toward a bottom 6 banger who can contribute offensively seems inevitable. Those type players are just as important as the top 6 guys.
 

Oddbob

Registered User
Jan 21, 2016
15,764
10,302
I personally don't see how size+development time + handedness relates to overall upside. Had you mentioned hockey IQ and skating I might have bought what you are saying. It honestly tells me next to nothing about how a prospect plays hockey and how his strength's and weaknesses make him more likely than other prospects to break through at the next level.

I am with you in that I don't think anyone left on the board projects to be more than a 5/6 defencemen (maybe middle pair under optimal conditions). Hell, the most likely outcome is that none of them make the NHL. That is why I landed on the most NHL ready of them. Like you, I don't expect Sulak to have much of an impact on the team. Then again, you haven't told me why Regula is expected to have any more of an impact.

The strange thing is that I really like Regula as a prospect. I just think people are getting ahead of themselves a bit with the 2018 class and overrating where some of these guys actually are in their development.

Short sample size I know, but he had 3 pts in 5 NHL games, while being +5, and was the most physical presence on our team. His compete level is what will make him a potential NHL regular.
 

Oddbob

Registered User
Jan 21, 2016
15,764
10,302
I respect that opinion. I don't really agree that they have similar upside.

On the height thing I have yet to hear from anyone that he is legitimately 5'8" even which is pretty tough as well. He is incredibly strong no argument at all there. I know Saarijarvi is near his actual height, all I ever hear on Hicketts is he is generously listed at 5'8" and I have heard that a lot and from people who have met him in person.

I thought he was okay during the regular season. I thought some bounces went his way, a couple of our chances were buried while he was out there and a few of his mistakes didn't immediately wind up in the back of our net. I do like the fearlessness in his game and his approach. He is an easy player to root for so make no mistake I hope he somehow does become a solid NHL contributor.

Here would be another difference in terms of my opinion limiting his upside with you though in terms of third pairing PP guy. I think we have a real problem if Hicketts sniffs the PP. We are a really bad team so he might for a quick trial. I know the Wings hope he can carve that role but I certainly don't. Hronek and Cholowski both intrigue me a heck of a lot more here. Vili has a plus shot, skating to manipulate the zone and passing you look for out of a PP guy as well. Put in players we hopefully draft or add in free agency and add in the fact the modern NHL one of your two units is likely to feature a fourth forward and I just don't see it. I see Saarijarvi's attributes for third pairing right handed PP guy as significantly in his favor when comparing him to Hicketts. Again he is also a plus skater something you will find in almost all undersized guys that were successful where Hicketts is not. To me Hicketts knocking it out of the park becomes Francis Bouillon. 3rd pairing undersized PK tank of a player who loves physical play. We will see but I am not bullish on that either. Not really super high on Saarijarvi at this point but I think he can still get this on track.

Again I really do hope all of these guys can achieve their dreams and play in the NHL. They all can make it happen, I really do want to believe that. But some would need an awful lot to go right to stay a long time.

I mean it is all sort of a feel thing mixing and matching potential and the current player while voting on these anyway so it isn't surprising we differ. But I don't have a couple of these guys real high. The reality of the players at this point is we are unlikely to be truly embarrassed about any of the claims. They are long-shots to carve out significant NHL roles for the most part. I think Smith, Pearson and Saarijarvi have the potential to fit in certain roles and see the value and upside. But is Givani more than a fourth line guy, I am not sure, I see third sometimes but he is an extremely likely player to play NHL hockey. All the scouts say that, he can play up and down and plays a heavy game. But he isn't real popular on this board either and it is because you can easily see him as a nothing 4th liner and that isn't all that exciting. But for me he has the best floor here not Hicketts when looking at that angle. But third pairing guys you like rooting for aren't necessarily going to have a ton of happiness.

Theo Fleury was 5 foot 6 and played in a a big man's game of clutch and grab and did more than alright. Hicketts is bigger and not afraid to get involved physically. Also, no one is pegging him above Cholowski or Hronek, but him being above Saarijarvi who wasn't even a regular last season in the AHL, is totally realistic. People keep saying the blueline was full in GR, but if he was overwhelmingly better than Hicketts or anyone else, that wouldn't have mattered, he would have pushed someone else to the side.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,756
4,569
Cleveland
Fleury was one of the best skaters in the league and an Olympian. If Hicketts could skate like that, let alone have that sort of best-in-the-world skillset, there would be a lot fewer reservations about his game.
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,078
Tampere, Finland
Stop comparing small forwards to defencemen. We have had successful midget forwards all the time in NHL, but show me the successful midget defencemen.

They just can't be very succesful because of the lack of reach for rebounds, and size against big guys at net-front. It's a law.

As we hype Mantha for his size and reach at net-front, for same opposite reason midget defencemen have very very small proability to have any succesful career.

They are just crap on the D-zone and net-front battles against guys like Mantha or ever smaller guys.
 

Oddbob

Registered User
Jan 21, 2016
15,764
10,302
Torey Krug! There also ins't the clutch and grab like when Fleury played, so smaller players have a better chance.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,756
4,569
Cleveland
Spurgeon. Ghost. A few others. They usually skate very well, though - which is what everyone is dinging Hicketts for. I like Hicketts, guy plays a fun game, but his size is a major hurdle long term without that great skating ability.
 

waltdetroit

Registered User
Jul 20, 2010
2,649
526
A bit off topic but height and weight are important, not to say it can't be overcome. Here is a site for you graph folks showing average height & weight for D, forwards and goalkeepers by year from 1917 until 2015. Interesting in the past few years, while height stayed the same, weight has decreased, probably due to the speed of the game.
NHL Forwards vs. Defensemen Height & Weight, 1917-18 to 2014-15
 

Richard Moistmaker

Registered User
May 9, 2018
136
120
The only reason Hicketts was called up was because the Griffins couldn't loose one of their impact D men when they were pushing for playoffs. He had an atrocious season in the AHL. He doesn't have the offensive abilities or skating to be an impact D man in the nhl at his size.
 

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
5,980
2,698
At his size, Hicketts needs to skate much, much better to have a snow ball's chance in hell of being truly effective at the NHL level long tern. You can't just say he is undersized when he gives up two inches on undersized defensemen. He is genuinely tiny (albeit very, very strong). I love the way he plays and competes, but I can't back him in terms of long-term NHL potential.
 

SirloinUB

Registered User
Aug 20, 2010
4,643
2,121
Canada

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,078
Tampere, Finland
A bit off topic but height and weight are important, not to say it can't be overcome. Here is a site for you graph folks showing average height & weight for D, forwards and goalkeepers by year from 1917 until 2015. Interesting in the past few years, while height stayed the same, weight has decreased, probably due to the speed of the game.
NHL Forwards vs. Defensemen Height & Weight, 1917-18 to 2014-15

Yep. Just read about an article how Brent Seabrook has dropped some weight to get some speed back. Future will more lighter but taller players.

In clutch and grab era, muscle power had the biggest effect.
 

Winger98

Moderator
Feb 27, 2002
22,756
4,569
Cleveland
Yep. Just read about an article how Brent Seabrook has dropped some weight to get some speed back. Future will more lighter but taller players.

In clutch and grab era, muscle power had the biggest effect.

I'm not sure where I saw it, but one of the real oddities about player's physical attributes is their arm span in comparison to their height. Guys who have really long arms in comparison to their height just seem to do very well in comparison to other folks.
 

snailderby

Registered User
Jul 10, 2010
844
14
I personally don't see how size+development time + handedness relates to overall upside. Had you mentioned hockey IQ and skating I might have bought what you are saying. It honestly tells me next to nothing about how a prospect plays hockey and how his strength's and weaknesses make him more likely than other prospects to break through at the next level.

I am with you in that I don't think anyone left on the board projects to be more than a 5/6 defensemen (maybe middle pair under optimal conditions). Hell, the most likely outcome is that none of them make the NHL. That is why I landed on the most NHL ready of them. Like you, I don't expect Sulak to have much of an impact on the team. Then again, you haven't told me why Regula is expected to have any more of an impact.

The strange thing is that I really like Regula as a prospect. I just think people are getting ahead of themselves a bit with the 2018 class and overrating where some of these guys actually are in their development.

Regula skates well. According to the reports that I read, he "moves very well," has "excellent acceleration," "possesses excellent mobility," "glid[es] up ice with ease," "us[es] his mobility to keep forwards wide or break-up plays," is "capable of skating the puck out of danger," and has "good speed, edgework, agility, ... pivots," and "gap control."

As for his decisionmaking, one report states that he "thinks the game very well ... and plays a positionally sound game." But another report says that he can be "turnover prone" and that "[h]e needs to pick his spots better to jump into the rush," although "for every questionable play he makes, he makes two great ones that make you see [his] potential."

Also, Brock Otten (who is the source for many of these quotes) recently posted this about Regula at OHL Prospects: 31 Teams in 31 Days - Detroit Red Wings:
At 6'4, his reach is a major asset in the defensive end, especially when you consider how mobile he is. Shows the potential to develop into a terrific player in his own end as he gets stronger and gains experience. Offensively, his mobility and puck carrying ability are potential pluses. It's a matter of confidence in leading the rush and picking his spots. Bottom line, this is a kid coming off of his first OHL season, who has already improved a ton. As he gains experience, expect his decision making to improve, especially under the tutelage of the London Knights coaching staff.

So I think it's fair to say that the kid has got a high ceiling. We'll see whether he reaches it.
 
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Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,078
Tampere, Finland
I really can't tell who will pan out best of our defencemen. But that's same for all defencemen drafted in NHL. Someone makes a surprise development and someone won't.

They didn't expect Lidström to be that good on the draft day. But then it happened. For lower round guys, as more lottery tickets you have, the probabilities to have this surprise guy will rise.

We can't predict who will be our best defenceman. Drafting them high doesn't quarantee either.

I also don't which have better odds, draft 1 guy high or 10 guys at lower rounds, to have one great defenceman.

That's a quite list already:

#20 LD Cholowski
#36 LD McIsaac
#38 RD Lindström
#53 RD Hronek
#67 RD Regula
#71 LD Kotkansalo
#73 RD Saarijärvi
#81 RD Barton
#100 LD Setkov
FA LD Hicketts

If 3-4 of them pans out, that's a great result.
 
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waltdetroit

Registered User
Jul 20, 2010
2,649
526
So is Turgeon not considered a prospect by the voting rules? Because he has a better chance of playing 50 NHL games than most of these players and already has seen NHL time. Ceiling is a bit low, but still
Two things (1) folks here value new prospect potential over older prospects that we've now seen & (2) For me 9-20 are relatively equal
 

Henkka

Registered User
Jan 31, 2004
31,077
12,078
Tampere, Finland
So is Turgeon not considered a prospect by the voting rules? Because he has a better chance of playing 50 NHL games than most of these players and already has seen NHL time. Ceiling is a bit low, but still

Yes he is a prospect, I don't know what the rule is. Good rule would be NHL rookie rule, +25 NHL games or more. And prospect is less than that.
 

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