Who should the Kraken take with the #2 overall pick?

Irie

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It might be better to move the side deal discussion to the Expansion Draft thread and out of this one.
Not sure how we got off topic, but we definitely hijacked this thread. I'll try to bring us back.

Listening to Adams in Buffalo, I don't think he is sold on Owen Power. Last year he proved he didn't want to follow convention and left a lot of draft capital on the table when he took Jack Quinn well ahead of his overall concensus value at 8th OA.

If you are Francis, what would you add to 2AO to move up for Power?

Do you add one of the top goalies you draft in expansion, which is a high need in Buffalo?

Would you add a pick that you have acquired in an expansion side deal? If so, how high?

Do you stay put and be happy with whomever is available at 2?

If Adams is eyeing Beniers, it may not cost a lot to move up. If he is going off the board again, I wouldn't be surprised to see buffalo move down 4 or 5 spots if the added assets are rich enough.
 

Irie

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i wouldn't give a lot to move up 1 spot.
When you know who you are trading for and what you are giving up, it is no longer "moving up one spot". Moving up one spot in the draft is a concept of bettering odds in a situation of uncertainty.

This would be trading whomever you value most in the draft that isn't Power for Power. It's tangible. You are trading Beniers/Hughes/whomever you like for Power. If you don't value Power over another prospect, then you stay put. But if you think he is the top prospect, then there is a value you can assign to the next valuable prospect, and that is your add.
 
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gstommylee

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When you know who you are trading for and what you are giving up, it is no longer "moving up one spot". Moving up one spot in the draft is a concept of bettering odds in a situation of uncertainty.

This would be trading whomever you value most in the draft that isn't Power for Power. It's tangible. You are trading Beniers/Hughes/whomever you like for Power. If you don't value Power over another prospect, then you stay put. But if you think he is the top prospect, then there is a value you can assign to the next valuable prospect, and that is your add.

If we had extra assets to give up then sure but its not worth giving up a couple assets when we are trying to build a team for someone that won't be exactly producing for you for a couple of years.
 
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Irie

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If we had extra assets to give up then sure but its not worth giving up a couple assets when we are trying to build a team for someone that won't be exactly producing for you for a couple of years.
I am not even sure what you are trying to say. Is your sole belief and focus that Seattle is going to contend for the cup right away?

I honestly have no response to this.
 
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gstommylee

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I am not even sure what you are trying to say. Is your sole belief and focus that Seattle is going to contend for the cup right away?

I honestly have no response to this.

No. Of course not. All i am saying it wouldn't make sense to make trades with assets when we really don't have any to spare on someone that isn't likely to playing in the NHL for a couple years. We have two teams to build for 1 now another for 22-23 ahl season.
 

Irie

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No. Of course not. All i am saying it wouldn't make sense to make trades with assets when we really don't have any to spare on someone that isn't likely to playing in the NHL for a couple years. We have two teams to build for 1 now another for 22-23 ahl season.

So the logic is that you don't want to trade any picks that won't be ready for a couple of years to upgrade any prospects because the prospects you'd be upgrading won't be ready for also a couple of years...

Yeah, I don't think you even tried on that one.

We'll just mark you down as someone that would prefer to draft Beniers and not give up any assets for Power.
 

flying v 604

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For me, in an uncertain draft, I look at which players might have had a chance at being drafted top five in past drafts.

Power would be a top five pick in most of the drafts of the past decade. When I look at how Luke Hughes was playing the second half of the season and assume he'd keep it up had he not been injured, I think he is the only other pick in this draft that had a chance to go top 5 in multiple drafts of the past ten years, but his injury is worrisome.

But the deciding question that should influence who you gamble on with the pick is, "As an expansion team, are you looking to compete right away and rush your prospects, and not have another top 5 pick for a long time like Nashville and Minnesota did? Or can you afford to be patient and stock your cupboards with a few top five picks and hopefully get some franchise players to build around, build a solid farm and develop your draft picks without rushing them."

Because that question dictates if your BPA criteria places more weight on "Highest ceiling" or "highest floor".
I think Hughes and Edvinson have the highest ceilings. Even tho unlike Quinn who was ranked to because teams were scared of his game translating even tho he just came off a worlds @18 and not allowing a goal. Luke is getting ranked more appropriately but still people seem to compare what's weaker in his game compared to Quinn instead of what makes him different and what plays to his strengths.
I think Quinn is superior in offense who will be a consistent 65+ player but Luke could be a 40+45 point D who has a chance to be a better defensive player.
 

Irie

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I think Hughes and Edvinson have the highest ceilings. Even tho unlike Quinn who was ranked to because teams were scared of his game translating even tho he just came off a worlds @18 and not allowing a goal. Luke is getting ranked more appropriately but still people seem to compare what's weaker in his game compared to Quinn instead of what makes him different and what plays to his strengths.
I think Quinn is superior in offense who will be a consistent 65+ player but Luke could be a 40+45 point D who has a chance to be a better defensive player.
I'd be excited with either if they turned out to be who Francis picks, although I feel like Edvinsson might be a little too high of risk to take at 2OA, even though I think he does have a chance to be the best of the lot if everything goes well in his development.
 

gstommylee

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So the logic is that you don't want to trade any picks that won't be ready for a couple of years to upgrade any prospects because the prospects you'd be upgrading won't be ready for also a couple of years...

Yeah, I don't think you even tried on that one.

We'll just mark you down as someone that would prefer to draft Beniers and not give up any assets for Power.

So you rather we have less prospects just so we can draft 1 specific person...
 

Irie

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So you rather we have less prospects just so we can draft 1 specific person...
Absolutely!

The top of each draft is typically broken up into tiers of players. While drafting from a higher tier doesn't guarantee the player you draft will be better than a player from a lower tier, the odds that they will goes up considerably by tier. If you can move from tier 2 to tier 1 in the first round for a decent cost, you do it each and every time. It is not often teams trade out of the top tier, it almost never happens.

To me, the reverse is true when talking later rounds. I am usually not for moving up once you get to the mid second round, as lower picks have a much slimmer chance of becoming regular NHLers, so with long-shot prospects, the more picks you have, the more chances you'll get that a pick pans out.

By and far the majority of NHL draft picks will never regularly play in the league, that should be considered when overvaluing draft picks,

NHL-players-per-round.png

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

Seattle has time and will have plenty of assets from the expansion draft for filling out their AHL team. There will also be plenty of options via trades and free agency to put together a solid farm by the time the Palm Springs team arrives.
 

Ray Martyniuk

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I saw Francis play live his rookie season, the first jersey I owned was a Hartford Francis sweater. Comparing Beniers to Francis is something akin to Blasphemy in my book.

But my bias aside, believe me when I say that Beniers level at this age is no where near to what Francis' was at that age. The chance Beniers goes on to have a hall of fame career is really, really small. He's a fine prospect, but that's it. There's only a few drafts that he may have been considered a top three pick if he were a prospect in any of the drafts of the past 20 years, and if there had been a full year of Junior league and scouting this season, i question whether or not he would actually be a top 5 prospect.

I won't hate the pick if that is who Francis decides to go with, but I will believe Power, Hughes, and Edvinsson may have been better choices.
Personally think Defense is overrated unless its a V Hedman type and there aren't too many of those kicking around. Beniers compares favorably to Francis in that they are 200 foot players and play the game the right way. Whether Beniers turns into a Francis is debatable but I think Seattle grabs him at 2 period unless Buffalo takes the youngster
 

Ray Martyniuk

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I'm a Lightning fan and honestly didn't come here to talk Tampa, but since you all brought them up...

Just to address a couple of points brought up above. No way they expose Cernak. He has way too much value to the team. I'd rather expose Sergachev, which they won't do. Either way if they were to let one of those 2 go it would be via trade since both have high value.

I would offer 1st rounder to take TJ but if Seattle wants 2 firsts & 2 prospects I'd tell them to go pound sand. TJ is still a good player and while not worth his contract I'd rather trade him retaining 1.5 to 2m somewhere else than give up the equivalent of 4 first round picks.

If I'm JBB I go one of two routes.

1 G - Vasy
4 D Hedman, McD, Serg, Cernak
4 F Kuch, Point, stammer, Cirelli

You want Gourde, TJ, Palat or Killorn? Take them. Good players but helps with our cap crunch. Seattle will do what's in their best interest.

A younger cheaper prospect? Foote, Joseph, Colton? I'd rather you took a 5M forward but we'll survive. Foote while being a former first round pick isn't a huge loss for Tampa. Tampa will have to look to trade probably 2 of TJ, Palat, Killorn, Gourde separately and while TJ would require retention or sweeter or both, if the demands for him are too ridiculous we keep him and play him and trade 2 of the other 3. The other 3 I think all have value so I don't think that would be too huge of an issue.

With the next route Tampa elects to expose McD. He's a stud and if exposed Seattle should take him. I don't think Tampa will do this because it hurts them short term for sure. But it does help with cap and if Seattle seems to think like a few of you guys and is unwilling to take long term deals for aging players (even though that's still a good deal for a very good player imo) and doesn't take him? That's OK too.

Option 2:

1 G - Vasy
3 D Hedman, Serg, Cernak
4 F Kuch, Point, stammer, Cirelli + Colton, Joseph...Maybe Gourde & whichever of Palat/Killorn they'd rather protect. Id' lean towards protect Killorn expose Palat. The idea here is protecting the younger cheap players.

Tampa doesn't really want you taking Colton or Joseph. Colton more so than Joseph at the moment we want to keep. But neither are really who Seattle should target imo. I mean they're promising young players but have they shown enough? Depends what they get elsewhere I guess. If you take them not the end of the world either.

Also the other 3rd option would be protect Foote instead of McD that would be the only difference in the first one I listed.

Anyways that's the opinion of one Tampa fan.

Looking forward to following this process for Seattle though as I'm planning to take them on as my #2 team.
McDonagh's contract is an albatross! Why would Seattle take him to help Tampa out of their cap hell? Foote is the young pro I have pegged forever! Him and T Johnson with H Alnefelt
 
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Irie

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Personally think Defense is overrated unless its a V Hedman type and there aren't too many of those kicking around. Beniers compares favorably to Francis in that they are 200 foot players and play the game the right way. Whether Beniers turns into a Francis is debatable but I think Seattle grabs him at 2 period unless Buffalo takes the youngster
Maybe in the regular season, but the one constant the past 25 years is defense wins championships. And unless your team is all-star stacked offensively, focusing on defense provides much better results.

The last 15 cup winners had these defensemen:

Hedman - top 2 all star 4 times
Pietrangelo - top 2 all star 3 times
Carlson - top 2 all star 2 times
Letang - top 2 all star 2 times
Keith - top 2 all-star 3 times
Doughty - top 2 all-star 4 times
Chara top - 2 all-star 7 times
Lidstrom - top 2 all-star 12 times
Pronger - top 2 all-star 4 times
Niedermayer - top 2 all-star 4 times

All-star caliber top pairing defensemen are just as difficult to find as top-line centers, and teams rarely can win a cup without one. They are very difficult to acquire. Of the above list, only two of the 15 teams won the cup with a number one defeseman they traded for (Anaheim-2007 and Boston-2011). All the rest were homegrown.
 

NatoGhost

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McDonagh's contract is an albatross! Why would Seattle take him to help Tampa out of their cap hell? Foote is the young pro I have pegged forever! Him and T Johnson with H Alnefelt

Taking McD would not be to help Tampa. Seattle should beg for him to be exposed lol.

Have you watched any Lightning games these playoffs? He's been their best defenseman. That's not an albatross contract at all. Could be rough the last couple years if he declines but he hasn't showed any signs of that yet.

Foote has a solid shot and good positioning and he may pan out but he's slow. Definitely not the proven commodity Foote is.

But I'd agree to expose Foote and give Seattle Huge Anelfelt if that was the best offer I could find to move Johnson. Would be better for the Lightning than losing McDonagh.

Tyler Johnson has looked pretty good lately too.
 
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Fistfullofbeer

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Taking McD would not be to help Tampa. Seattle should beg for him to be exposed lol.

Have you watched any Lightning games these playoffs? He's been their best defenseman. That's not an albatross contract at all. Could be rough the last couple years if he declines but he hasn't showed any signs of that yet.

Foote has a solid shot and good positioning and he may pan out but he's slow. Definitely not the proven commodity Foote is.

But I'd agree to expose Foote and give Seattle Huge Anelfelt if that was the best offer I could find to move Johnson. Would be better for the Lightning than losing McDonagh.

Tyler Johnson has looked pretty good lately too.
Sure. You drink that kool-aid on McD and TJ. Keep them as well. You may be the first person who has been 'brave' enough to come here and think that Seattle will actually want to take either of those players for free.
 

NatoGhost

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Sure. You drink that kool-aid on McD and TJ. Keep them as well. You may be the first person who has been 'brave' enough to come here and think that Seattle will actually want to take either of those players for free.

Guess you didn't read what I wrote. I'm not trying to sell you on taking McD. I'd rather Tampa keep him.

TJ I didnt say free either. I simply said I would do what the other poster wanted.
 

Gniwder

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Maybe in the regular season, but the one constant the past 25 years is defense wins championships. And unless your team is all-star stacked offensively, focusing on defense provides much better results.

The last 15 cup winners had these defensemen:

Hedman - top 2 all star 4 times
Pietrangelo - top 2 all star 3 times
Carlson - top 2 all star 2 times
Letang - top 2 all star 2 times
Keith - top 2 all-star 3 times
Doughty - top 2 all-star 4 times
Chara top - 2 all-star 7 times
Lidstrom - top 2 all-star 12 times
Pronger - top 2 all-star 4 times
Niedermayer - top 2 all-star 4 times

All-star caliber top pairing defensemen are just as difficult to find as top-line centers, and teams rarely can win a cup without one. They are very difficult to acquire. Of the above list, only two of the 15 teams won the cup with a number one defeseman they traded for (Anaheim-2007 and Boston-2011). All the rest were homegrown.
Not that it impacts your point, but Niskanen was the top pair D for the Caps. Carlson puts up a lot of points, but he's got defensive issues. How else could you go -5 on a team that scores a gazillion goals? (It's not just stats, I grew up a Caps fan so I watch a lot of games too.)

I do want to point out that most of the guys you mentioned are offensively minded D. The ability to transition the puck matters as well as having a good PP QB. Power, Hughes and Clarke (if the skating issue is fixed) fit the bill, but I'm not sure if Edvinsson does.
 

Irie

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Not that it impacts your point, but Niskanen was the top pair D for the Caps. Carlson puts up a lot of points, but he's got defensive issues. How else could you go -5 on a team that scores a gazillion goals? (It's not just stats, I grew up a Caps fan so I watch a lot of games too.)

I do want to point out that most of the guys you mentioned are offensively minded D. The ability to transition the puck matters as well as having a good PP QB. Power, Hughes and Clarke (if the skating issue is fixed) fit the bill, but I'm not sure if Edvinsson does.
You do realize that Carlson played more shorthanded than Niskanen most seasons in Washington when they played together? The last couple of season Niskanen played more short handed time, but Carlson was already playing 24-25 minutes a night. Carlson always played more total minutes than Niskanen.

The rest of the guys are offensive minded? They are all skilled offensively, yes, but all of them have led their teams in icetime, played in all situations, and regularly played against other teams top lines. They are not defensively suspect. Neidermayer, Pronger, Keith, Doughty, Lidstrom, Chara, Letang, Petrangelo, and Hedman are all very solid two way defensemen that would be labelled #1 defensemen in their prime. We aren't talking about Paul Coffey here, where the best defense was a great offense.

Andys argument was that defense was overrated, so wasting a high pick on a defenseman would be a waste. I am pretty sure from some of your other posts that you do not subscribe to this philosophy, but if you do, I'd love to hear your arguments to support it.
 

NYR425

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Question, if the Rangers called and offered Buchnevich, Strome, Jones and Howden for the 2nd overall do you do it? Don't think anyone wants DeAngelo or would throw him in at 50%. Strome and Buchnevich would be 2 of your 3 1st line players. If not what would it take?
 

RainyCityHockey

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Question, if the Rangers called and offered Buchnevich, Strome, Jones and Howden for the 2nd overall do you do it? Don't think anyone wants DeAngelo or would throw him in at 50%. Strome and Buchnevich would be 2 of your 3 1st line players. If not what would it take?

No, we wouldn't do that.
 

Fistfullofbeer

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Question, if the Rangers called and offered Buchnevich, Strome, Jones and Howden for the 2nd overall do you do it? Don't think anyone wants DeAngelo or would throw him in at 50%. Strome and Buchnevich would be 2 of your 3 1st line players. If not what would it take?
Easy no.

If the package around 2nd overall does not return a bonafide superstar (think Eichel) then there would be little to no interest from the Seattle side. At 2nd overall we are not looking for quantity but quality.
 

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