Speculation: Who is a good General Manager? Perhaps it's the luckiest one?

[ottomaddox]

I was reflecting on what a good GM is and I couldn't even tell what that might be. It's certainly not Dubas. A good GM? It's fleeting at this point.

Perhaps the best GMs are the luckiest ones. Maybe Lou or Quinn for Toronto?

I've
been posting on HF for quite a while and no one is safe. Despite Fletcher's success with the Gilmour trade/taking TOR to 2 semi final appearances, fans here ripped him a new one as interim gm (temp).


Then there
was JFJ. Then it was Burke/Nonis. Even in Lou's limited time here he was ripped. Hall of Fame GM? No he made this mistake, that mistake, etc. Fans still talk about Lou as though he did more bad things than good.

Fast forward to Dubas who seems to be learning on the job, and not promising a lot. I think to some fans he's awesome because he's the latest GM and a new hope for a Championship.

I am convinced now that success is mainly luck. Perhaps Fletcher, and Quinn were lucky. Gilmour at his peak, Sundin at his peak, Belfour at his peak, etc.

What else can it be. Just look at other franchises: Holland brought nothing but success and respect for DET. Once their top dogs lost a step DET fell. It took no time for the fans of DET to label Holland "useless".

So is it just luck? Who is a good GM?

Click to read more...

 

[LeafChief]

Another fascinating thread.

 

[nsleaf]

 

[Al14]

Another fascinating thread.

Maybe we should talk politics. Just kidding, although, it is talking about hockey politics. It's too bad that we the fans can't vote for our chosen teams management.

 

[ACC1224]

I hate Corona

 

[Cor]

Did you suggest Lou is the best Leafs GM?

 

[ottomaddox]

Did you suggest Lou is the best Leafs GM?

I am only suggesting that they might have been the luckiest ones. I don't know anymore who is a good GM.

 

[Americanadian]

Did you suggest Lou is the best Leafs GM?

I think that there is an argument to be made that Lou was a better GM than Dubas. What are the 5 best/worst trades and signings of the Dubas/Lou era?

 

[Cor]

I think that there is an argument to be made that Lou was a better GM than Dubas. What are the 5 best/worst trades and signings of the Dubas/Lou era?

Neither Dubas or Lou are the best Leafs GM in history.

Dubas is active, so who knows what the future brings.

 

[4thline]

I think that there is an argument to be made that Lou was a better GM than Dubas. What are the 5 best/worst trades and signings of the Dubas/Lou era?

Only because Lou was relieved before he could lead us into the same mess he's taken the Isles into and Dubas had to navigate the rapids to keep the core intact.

 

[ACC1224]

I think that there is an argument to be made that Lou was a better GM than Dubas. What are the 5 best/worst trades and signings of the Dubas/Lou era?

Team was at different stages so it's an unfair comparison.
You need time to evaluate Dubas, I'm not optimistic so far but I'll keep an open mind.

 

[Cor]

I am only suggesting that they might have been the luckiest ones. I don't know anymore who is a good GM.

I don’t know how Quinn could be classified as Lucky. I suppose he inherited Sundin. But every GM inherited something.

Quinn built a great team around Sundin. Constantly have him players to play with. It wasn’t until Quinn got fired that Sundin began having no wingers.

I suppose Lou could be the “luckiest” of the modern era. Having Nylander. Getting Marner to drop past ARI, and then winning the Matthews lottery. Dubas set up him up with an additional 1st, which let him grab Freddy.

Overall, I disagree with the good GM’s are just lucky theory.

 

[Dekes For Days]

A good GM is somebody with a clear vision, who does the right thing, within his abilities, based on the available information and options at the time. Unfortunately, many only evaluate the success of GMs through some of these flawed methods:

1. Hindsight vision, where information only known after the fact is used to judge decisions made before that information was known/option was available.
2. Speculative vision, where decisions are judged compared to the best-case-scenario of unsubstantiated rumours/ideas that may not be possible.
3. Completely tied to the regular season point total success of the team, regardless of impacting factors or reasons.
4. Completely tied to the playoff success of a team, regardless of impacting factors or reasons.

 

[ottomaddox]

A good GM is somebody with a clear vision, who does the right thing, within his abilities, based on the available information and options at the time. Unfortunately, many only evaluate the success of GMs through some of these flawed methods:

1. Hindsight vision, where information only known after the fact is used to judge decisions made before that information was known/option was available.
2. Speculative vision, where decisions are judged compared to the best-case-scenario of unsubstantiated rumours/ideas that may not be possible.
3. Completely tied to the regular season point total success of the team, regardless of impacting factors or reasons.
4. Completely tied to the playoff success of a team, regardless of impacting factors or reasons.

Wouldn't you say that throughout professional sports that #4 should be the best measurement? The only exception is when a team is retooling/rebuilding.

 

[4thline]

Overall, I disagree with the good GM’s are just lucky theory.

Luck is the difference between a good gm and one that is seen as great/ one with a cup winning legacy.

Margins are razor thin among playoff teams. The team that wins the cup is the team that wins the cup, not necessarily the best team any given year. Replay the same playoffs 5 times with the same rosters and you end up with 5 very different brackets.

 

[ottomaddox]

Team was at different stages so it's an unfair comparison.
You need time to evaluate Dubas, I'm not optimistic so far but I'll keep an open mind.

I don't disagree, but what stage are we at? When you consider where the leafs are at, their experience, the holes that have been filled, and contracts signed; should we expect more from them? Is it reasonable to expect a playoff series win? Perhaps the signing of Tavares has created too much too soon in terms of expectations.

I am willing to give Dubas some time. When I say he's "learning on the job", I don't mean it in the most critical way. He seems to be adjusting in places. That's fine.

 

[ACC1224]

You don't need luck to be a good GM.
You do need luck to be a Cup winning GM.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Wouldn't you say that throughout professional sports that #4 should be the best measurement?

No. It's a small sample involving a lot of luck and a lot of impacting factors, with drastically different conditions for every team involved.

Leafs have "technically" lost in the 1st round for 3 years, however that was against the 1st, 4th, and 3rd best teams in the entire league; teams filled with veterans with home ice advantage, and the Leafs put up really close battles with their core as kids against them, even through significant injuries, suspensions, and questionable officiating. If you're going to look at "playoff success", the context involved is more crucial than the actual series results.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

You don't need luck to be a good GM.
You do need luck to be a Cup winning GM.

Pretty much what I was going to say.

A good GM gives their team a good shot to win the Cup, and great ones give them a shot on a regular basis.

This team has more than enough talent to win multiple Cups, it's a matter of that talent actually performing consistently to deserve it.

 

[meefer]

Unless you've inherited a bankrupt franchise, and are allowed to build it from the ground to the Cup, it's awfully difficult to call a GM great, imo. Or, to keep your team in the mix and win multiple times. Otherwise, a GM's job is to build a contending team, put a coaching staff in place that can maximize the talents available, and then cross your fingers and watch how the games unfold.

With respect to Dubas, suspicions suggests he wished to move on from Babcock last spring. Shanny said no. I will argue that our biggest drawback this year was Shanahan's intervention on Kyle's intent. I can understand why, but in retrospect, it was a boat anchor of a decision. I'm not suggesting KD is a great manager, just that as GM he helped create a roster based on certain skill sets and wanted to have a coach that would develop and enhance the way the Leafs were drawn up to play. Unless a GM has that freedom, I find it hard to evaluate his performance. Was the team mature enough, who knows. Tough enough, doubtful. But, a GM has to have the final say in all aspects of the product on the ice if one wishes to evaluate that person's performance.

 

[The Podium]

I think that there is an argument to be made that Lou was a better GM than Dubas. What are the 5 best/worst trades and signings of the Dubas/Lou era?

Lou has his place as a HHoF GM, but has either gone senile or is unable to adapt to the changing modern league.

He values the blue collared grinders and character guys, which is fine as I believe they are still an asset in this league, but values them at the expense of their young stars. Happened here when they signed Marleau to that 3rd year overlapping the first year of Matthews and Marners new contract. Happened again in NYI spending a 1st (top 3 protected) + 2nd + 3rd for a career 30-40 point player subsequently signing him at 5mill when Pulock, Toews and Barzal are pending RFAs.

I rather overpay my stars by 1-1.5 mill than grinders like Matt Martin and Leo Komarov.

Dubas is much better than Lou at this point, and I say that while believing Dubas has his faults. Lou is just that bad and starting this offseason well see how he handles the mess he made on the island.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

I think the work Dubas has done thus far, this early, has been very impressive.

 

[The Podium]

I think the work Dubas has done thus far, this early, has been very impressive.

I see the good and bad.

He is able to extract value out of everything it seems; Euro UFAs, minor trades and later draft picks.

Good trades overall like Muzzin, Hyman, Campbell/Clifford, pick deals, etc.

Kadri for Barrie/Kerfoot turned out bad in hindsight, but was lauded around here when first made. In hindsight, the requirements for a 3C in return in addition to a top 4 D might have diminished the value of the D we were able to acquire, which IMO was a mistake.

Dropped the ball on the term of the Matthews contract and the AAV on Marner, but thats been beaten to death.

Unpopular opinion, he did well through the entirety of the Nylander negotiations and we are already seeing the dividends.

 

[IPS]

Doug Armstrong has long been one of the best GM's in the league even though it took him until last year to finally win a cup.

Many years he fulfilled his duty assembling fantastic teams on paper but the players in St. Louis kept delivering sub-par showings in the playoffs. Armstrong always kept great players flowing into the organization and continually adjusted and improved the team.

 

[Fogelhund]

You've got to give credit to JFJ, for identifying the need for a proper rebuild, and pitching it to the board. He was one guy who saw the need, and had the courage to try and do what was obvious to many. I'm not sure he would have made a good GM otherwise, but I don't blame him for what happened during his tenure. He was handcuffed by the board.