Speculation: Who are the Jets losing to expansion? Better question is who are we getting!

[Guffman]

I really like the premise of this thread.

The Jets have stockpiled a surplus of young talent that Las Vegas is exempt from drafting - but those are pieces that LV WILL have to acquire via redistributing some of their excess XD players. So, I do agree here - the Jets have an amazing opportunity here to peddle their young currency for needed players that LV can acquire (LHD).

After all, that is what Jets management was talking about all these years with draft and develop. Once you finally generate a surplus, you can use that surplus to bolster needed positional upgrades on the team.

Who do we lose in the XD? Someone that is replaceable, honestly. I agree with the Fonz that there will be a huge opportunity here for the Jets, who are very well positioned, to upgrade their team.

I would imagine that the Jets would be in talks with LV before the XD to hypothetically measure value of he Jets prospects to what LV might be acquiring that would interest the Jets.

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I really like the premise of this thread.

(...)

After all, that is what Jets management was talking about all these years with draft and develop. Once you finally generate a surplus, you can use that surplus to bolster needed positional upgrades on the team.

Exactly - it's why you always grab BPA as well, so that you have the highest value available for times like this. This thread is great, and thought provoking - I'm really looking forward to seeing the deals that are going to get done around the XD, both for the Jets and for other teams. Probably going to be pretty fascinating.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Was announced today that Vegas announced a partnership with the Chicago Wolves.

Partnership contains deliberate wording that the Wolves "goal is to win championships at the AHL level."

Further it appears St. Louis will still be funnelling them players in addition to 31 players currently on the Wolves roster.

An interesting development. Quite likely zero of the Knights 2017 picks will be in the AHL next season, but there's still not as much room for prospects as I initially imagined.

If this scenario still plays out, I would think this new wrinkle infers there'd be less interest in deals involving players like Lemieux, Lipon & Phillips & more in Petan, Dano, Connor & Roslovic.

Initially my reasoning was the excess 7+ players taken at expansion would be dealt for 10+ blue chip prospects not yet meeting waiver eligibility. A relationship will the Wolves infers less immediate attention to this area.

Perhaps Vegas would rather be dealing this excess for a superstar or someone on the cusp of being considered elite?

 

[Gm0ney]

Vegas might very well be trying to go for it. They've got a couple of years of lead time on the NFL coming to town, so maybe they want to make hay while they have the sun to themselves and build a solid fanbase.

They're in pretty good shape to do it too, with the most generous XD rules in league history, and word that up to 5 KHL teams are folding this summer...what's the line on Vegas getting their first playoff win before the Jets?

 

[Peggy]

You asked that back on May 3rd.



& I responded to you already back in post #89.

It helps if you also read post #1.

I still don't understand how this forum works tbh
On other forums I use I usually get notifications when someone responds
On here I have no idea and have to look around
Sometimes I just don't got the time or patience

I appreciate that you did tho. I'll have to look around for it again lol

 

[YWGinYYZ]

I still don't understand how this forum works tbh
On other forums I use I usually get notifications when someone responds
On here I have no idea and have to look around
Sometimes I just don't got the time or patience

I appreciate that you did tho. I'll have to look around for it again lol

User CP > Edit Options > Quote Notifications > None / Email / PM

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Was announced today that Vegas announced a partnership with the Chicago Wolves.

Partnership contains deliberate wording that the Wolves "goal is to win championships at the AHL level."

Further it appears St. Louis will still be funnelling them players in addition to 31 players currently on the Wolves roster.

An interesting development. Quite likely zero of the Knights 2017 picks will be in the AHL next season, but there's still not as much room for prospects as I initially imagined.

If this scenario still plays out, I would think this new wrinkle infers there'd be less interest in deals involving players like Lemieux, Lipon & Phillips & more in Petan, Dano, Connor & Roslovic.

Initially my reasoning was the excess 7+ players taken at expansion would be dealt for 10+ blue chip prospects not yet meeting waiver eligibility. A relationship will the Wolves infers less immediate attention to this area.

Perhaps Vegas would rather be dealing this excess for a superstar or someone on the cusp of being considered elite?

They are going to have a minimum of 9 players above the 23 man limit. The 2 they have plus 30 draftees. They still may sign some more KHL refugees. Then there is Free Agent Frenzy. One more from the K and 2 UFA's gives them 12 players to find homes for and probably the only one who would be waiver exempt is Reid Duke. The 2 from the KHL migtht be exempt but aren't likely to be sent down.

The players they get from the XD won't clear waivers. The remaining 11 would need to be traded for waiver exempt assets. So that is picks or prospects. They may be able to bundle some of them for better players to improve their immediate roster but how much of that can they do? Nobody wants to give up quality for quantity.

How much room will there be on the Wolves? 7-8 players from each of SLB and VGK? Maybe a few more but the Wolves want to keep some veterans to help them win too.

TBH this arrangement sounds stranger for the Blues than for the Knights. I don't see where SLB are going to park all of their prospects even if they drop a bunch on expiring contracts.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

This whole reply of yours sounds very nice, profound and educated but again you were missing the whole point of my initial post. If they can work out a deal with Vegas before expansion, where vegas, no matter who the jets have exposed have to take Dano, then the Jets can acquire Raanta, De Haan, or whoever they want and not lose them to expansion as Vegas and the Jets already made a deal for who they will be taking from Winnipeg....

Jets GAIN a massive edge in that they can trade others for players that teams may have to expose and lose for nothing, whereas the Jets can then expose them and NOT lose them as they already made the deal with vegas.

The problem with this thought process is any players the Jets (or any other team) add prior to expansion is yet another player for them to protect. There are VERY few teams that have an open roster spot. Taking on a player before expansion results in another player being exposed. Every NHL team is knowingly in the position they are in. They've had a full year to plan this out. We're 18 days until the protected list is released. I doubt there is going to be a flurry of movement.

So, back to the whole point of this whole thread (who are we getting/losing)

Jets LOSE Dano and whatever else it takes for vegas to agree to take dano, regardless of who else may be exposed.

I doubt the Jets will have to force Dano on them. Dano & Armia would be the two big losses. I'm far less concerned with Copp & Lowry. If the Jets were to want to arrange an agreement, it would be on the latter two, not the former.

Since you played the phone game....

Chevy: "hey george, we are going 7-3-1, so, looks like Dano will be the best available player to you.. Knowing this is how it will play out, how about you guys take Dano AND our 3rd if you will commit to taking dano regardless of who we have exposed"

McPhee: "So, either we get Dano or dano and a 3rd from you guys? But what if you guys then pick up players we may be interested in, we may lose on some further capital.... How about you give us X in addition to the 3rd, and we will take Dano?"

It's bad enough to be losing Dano. I fail to see what is gained by offering them even more to take the player that is the most talented of the bunch...& then give them a 3rd. You say as much in your next sentence...

This is where I dont know what that price would be, but it would be a decent way for McPhee to gain draft picks while still getting the same player he would be getting anyway.

Lastly, I think there will be more trades done leading up to the expansion draft than during the expansion draft. All the Gms will likely know who each other are protecting well before the lists are officially released.

Another week has passed. No teams have done anything...so certainly no flurry of movement.

Once the Stanley Cup finishes, there will likely be a "Fleury of movement". Other than that pun, I don't see much else happening prior.

 

[northendninja]

Another week has passed. No teams have done anything...so certainly no flurry of movement.

Once the Stanley Cup finishes, there will likely be a "Fleury of movement". Other than that pun, I don't see much else happening prior.

I don't think there will be anything until the Cup is over. There is an unwritten rule not to make any moves to detract from the finals. But, look at what Chicago did today. Seems like they have negotiated with Vegas in advance on who they will let them take.

McPhee had also recently commented that he will be stockpiling as many draft picks as possible and anticipates to have to "draft" far less than 20 players in the actual expansion draft.

I do believe there will be a ton of movement as soon as the Cup is done. Teams will want to finalize deals with Vegas asap as I would imagine there may be better terms to be had right off the get go when there are more unknowns.

 

[scarbrow21]

I don't think there will be anything until the Cup is over. There is an unwritten rule not to make any moves to detract from the finals. But, look at what Chicago did today. Seems like they have negotiated with Vegas in advance on who they will let them take.

McPhee had also recently commented that he will be stockpiling as many draft picks as possible and anticipates to have to "draft" far less than 20 players in the actual expansion draft.

I do believe there will be a ton of movement as soon as the Cup is done. Teams will want to finalize deals with Vegas asap as I would imagine there may be better terms to be had right off the get go when there are more unknowns.

2 of the major fish have already moved in Darling and Bishop. Most thought they'd either go to a team that needed them and didn't really have a good option to protect like CGY, DAL, CAR or wait till UFA.

McPhee would also be wise to push the talks he has on potential GMs as long as possible. Sure let them know you're interested in side deals, but the longer he makes them wait to know for sure, the less time they'll have to make other side deals.

The way I see things shaking down is we'll probably get 1-3 "deals" made before the cup final ends. Like the apparent CHI deal.
Cup final will end, nothing will happen for 48 HRs and then the buyout window will open ringing the bell and trades with almost all be done within the next 4 days. I'm looking at the day the buyout window opens as almost a tradecenter day as I think we'll see 10-20 moves that day.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

Talked with a couple of friends of mine about what Vegas plans maybe. They seem to think they are looking to stockpile either draft picks or prospects from this expansion. That they may have as many as 10 to 15 trades in the works because teams are going to want players that are exposed by other teams.

The Jets may be interested in an exposed goalie from what I understand and may look at moving a draft pick for one

 

[Coach G]

Talked with a couple of friends of mine about what Vegas plans maybe. They seem to think they are looking to stockpile either draft picks or prospects from this expansion. That they may have as many as 10 to 15 trades in the works because teams are going to want players that are exposed by other teams.

The Jets may be interested in an exposed goalie from what I understand and may look at moving a draft pick for one

Great news if true. Many of us have been advocating this plan for months.

 

[scarbrow21]

Great news if true. Many of us have been advocating this plan for months.

I'm holding out hope that Calvin De Haan or one of Brodin/Scandella are available maybe even McNabb and that WPG can push Enstrom to the third pair by acquiring one of them using any of #13OA, Petan, Dano, Copp, any B level prospects

 

[northendninja]

I'm holding out hope that Calvin De Haan or one of Brodin/Scandella are available maybe even McNabb and that WPG can push Enstrom to the third pair by acquiring one of them using any of #13OA, Petan, Dano, Copp, any B level prospects

If you do this (ie de haan/brodin/scandella) prior to expansion, would you still go 7-3 and expose myers? or go 4-4 and lose perrault/lowry?

Chevy did say that myers is STILL in rehab and not healthy....

 

[10Ducky10]

I'm holding out hope that Calvin De Haan or one of Brodin/Scandella are available maybe even McNabb and that WPG can push Enstrom to the third pair by acquiring one of them using any of #13OA, Petan, Dano, Copp, any B level prospects

They'd have to have a really strong D to give upeither of those players. If the Isles would take the 13th and Copp for de Haan, I'd do it and protect 5 D with Little, Wheeler and Scheif.

Let's be really glad we aren't having this draft in 2 more years. We'd be losing a very good player.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

If you do this (ie de haan/brodin/scandella) prior to expansion, would you still go 7-3 and expose myers? or go 4-4 and lose perrault/lowry?

Chevy did say that myers is STILL in rehab and not healthy....

Still talking about pre expansion trades I see...

See below. Perhaps once the actual GM of Vegas shares his thoughts you'll come around.

They'd have to have a really strong D to give upeither of those players. If the Isles would take the 13th and Copp for de Haan, I'd do it and protect 5 D with Little, Wheeler and Scheif.

Let's be really glad we aren't having this draft in 2 more years. We'd be losing a very good player.

What makes you think the deal has to happen with the Islanders? I've been saying for some time that these deals will happen thru the Knights.

I proposed this topic of this thread some time ago. It was nice to finally hear some support of my theory from the highest source possible, Golden Knights GM McPhee.

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/golden-...-on-expansion-draft-trade-discussions~1135102

Many different scenarios are proposed in this interview, but without being prompted by a question he states outright at the 6 minute mark that "a GM reached out to me today asking for me to claim a specific player because they need a few things...this is going to be quite a process"

He goes on scant seconds later to say "We can't keep 30 players because we can't get 6 or 7 players thru waivers if we wanted to. They are not waiver exempt. There will be a lot of transactions between the day the roster is announced & the entry draft. We have to move quickly because once we get to July 5th there's not a lot of liquidity in the market. Teams will have made their decisions & we don't want to be stuck holding the bag"

 

[Bastage]

Here is an idea. Chevy calls McPhee and says "Have I got a deal for you and you and your owner will love this. I want you to acquire Calvin de Hann, Jason Demers, Josh Manson and Philipp Grubauer for me. I will send you Brandon Lemieux and Jacob Trouba in return and leave Myers exposed. You get a son of an nhler and you can sign Trouba long term to be the poster boy for your new team, he and his agent will love it. That should help you make a big splash with the media." McPhee would take it. There, all player related problems solved. Trouba, the Prima Donna whose holdout likely cost us a playoff spot, would jump at the chance to be the face of the Golden Knights. I think Lemieux is over rated and I am so afraid Maurice will love him like Lowry or as Thorburns replacement so, bye. New D pairings are Morrissey-Demers, de Hann-Byfuglien, Enstom-Manson. I like that. Competition in net with two RFA's. Yeah, I like that too.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Here is an idea. Chevy calls McPhee and says "Have I got a deal for you and you and your owner will love this. I want you to acquire Calvin de Hann, Jason Demers, Josh Manson and Philipp Grubauer for me. I will send you Brandon Lemieux and Jacob Trouba in return and leave Myers exposed. You get a son of an nhler and you can sign Trouba long term to be the poster boy for your new team, he and his agent will love it. That should help you make a big splash with the media." McPhee would take it. There, all player related problems solved. Trouba, the Prima Donna whose holdout likely cost us a playoff spot, would jump at the chance to be the face of the Golden Knights. I think Lemieux is over rated and I am so afraid Maurice will love him like Lowry or as Thorburns replacement so, bye. New D pairings are Morrissey-Demers, de Hann-Byfuglien, Enstom-Manson. I like that. Competition in net with two RFA's. Yeah, I like that too.

As it stands the Jets defence has one missing piece:

1) Morrissey / Trouba
2) x / Byfuglien
3) Enstrom / Myers

Compared to your suggestion:

1) Morrissey-Demers
2) de Hann-Byfuglien
3) Enstrom-Manson

Analyzing this:

1) Adding Demers to is a step back
2) De Haan fills that pairing need nicely
3) Manson is a step back compared to a healthy Myers

Do we really have to give up so much to fill that 1st / 2nd pairing position at LD?

It's often said that whoever gains the best player is the winner. In this case we're giving up the two best players in Trouba & Myers. I'm certainly not offering both.

If Trouba was to be traded to Vegas, I'd want more than you suggest, but the problem becomes Vegas needs to be creating some semblance of a farm system. They can't literally "sell the farm", when they need to be "creating a farm".

Giving up 3+ of their picks for Trouba is a hefty price Vegas can't afford

From the Jets perspective nothing Vegas will have available to them comes close to Trouba's value in a singular comparison.

If our current #1 in Byfuglien wasn't the league leading penalty minutes leader, played his position better & wasn't 32 years old I'd be more inclined to go along with something along these lines, but I have no faith in Dustin Byfuglien leading this team to a cup. The moment his full NMC expires I say trade him.

The Jets need Trouba, but if he won't sign then the return needs to be that oft mentioned "Trouba clone that's willing to play long term in Winnipeg."

Perhaps a third team gets involved? As mentioned elsewhere, Chevy by now must know Trouba's long term intentions. I agree that this is an ideal opportunity to solve the Trouba saga.

Or we simply deal prospect depth for whatever quality LD Vegas is willing to part with & go on hoping that Trouba signs here.

 

[northendninja]

I'm not sure we can/should pencil Myers into the lineup. As chevy said, he's STILL in rehab. He is having nerve issues and no one can be sure if and when he will be healed. A couple months ago there was some hope he can get in a few games or even the world championship to now, Chevy saying this week that he is still not ready is incredibly troubling.

If they buy out Toby we could be looking at

Morrissey/Trouba
???/buff
???/poolman?

In a magical world:
Trouba and petan for chychrun and strome
Little for Hamonic

Schief/strome/Lowry/roslovic down the middle

Morrissey/hamonic
Chychrun/buff
Enstrom/ myers if healthy.

Could more easily go 4-4 this way

Thoughts?

 

[Total Cure]

I'm not sure we can/should pencil Myers into the lineup. As chevy said, he's STILL in rehab. He is having nerve issues and no one can be sure if and when he will be healed. A couple months ago there was some hope he can get in a few games or even the world championship to now, Chevy saying this week that he is still not ready is incredibly troubling.

If they buy out Toby we could be looking at

Morrissey/Trouba
???/buff
???/poolman?

In a magical world:
Trouba and petan for chychrun and strome
Little for Hamonic

Schief/strome/Lowry/roslovic down the middle

Morrissey/hamonic
Chychrun/buff
Enstrom/ myers if healthy.

Could more easily go 4-4 this way

Thoughts?

I still think that the Jets shouldn't rush the Trouba decision. Still lots of time. Priority should be signing Trouba no matter what the cost is (well...almost). But if Chevy knows that Trouba won't sign and if he's concerned that it might become a distraction, then Arizona might be a good fit with Chayka being an analytics guy. Trouba's numbers are really good.

No disrespect but I don't think think that your magical world is realistic.

I don't mind...in fact, I like:
Morrissey/Buff
Chychrun/Hamonic
Enstrom/Myers (if not healthy, Nogier or Poolman)

Maybe my ideas are unrealistic as well, but I would try this...

I'd offer something around the 13th and a prospect and/or another pick for Hamonic. Not sure the Isles do that but they might depending on their expansion draft strategy. Either way, I feel that Little is is more valuable to the Jets than Hamonic in a one for one.

I can't see Arizona giving up Strome. Too much hype and too much recent "success". I suggested this in another Trouba thread:
Trouba, Petan (or Dano, or both), the 13th and 43rd 2017 picks for Chychrun, Dvorak, the 7th and 23rd 2017 picks. I recognize that this is a little ambitious but whatever.

Chychrun would offset the Trouba loss somewhat and balances the LD / RD issue. Not sure what his ceiling is at this point. Morrisey at 1LD and Enstrom & Chychrun at 2LD & 3LD isn't horrible. Dvorak can slot in at 3C pushing Lowry (or Copp depending on who Vegas picks) to 4C.

Petan or Dano don't seem to figure into the Jets long term plans. The Jets could pick a centre & a defenceman or two D with 7 and 23. One of Foote, Brannstrom, Timmins, Hague, or Vaakanainen should be available at 23. As for 7? Hard to tell...mock drafts are all over the place. One of Glass, Mittelstadt, Liljegren, Pettersson, or Necas will be there.

It would suck to lose Trouba. Can't replace a guy like that one for one but I'd be tempted in this scenario. If the Jets know that Trouba won't sign, maybe it's just best to rip that bandaid off. Having said that, I'd be more than happy to let it play out.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Trouba for De Haan, Manson & 6 overall would be nice though (not sure where their contracts are though)

 

[ps241]

Trouba for De Haan, Manson & 6 overall would be nice though (not sure where their contracts are though)

Gil are you saying De Haan + Josh Manson, + 6th overall? If so how does that happen?

One of the issues is De Haan is an RFA?

 

[Gil Fisher]

Gil are you saying De Haan + Josh Manson, + 6th overall? If so how does that happen?

One of the issues is De Haan is an RFA?

It would have to be a post XD trade with Vegas. But despite some of the projections out there, I doubt either of CDH and Manson make it to Vegas.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

It would have to be a post XD trade with Vegas. But despite some of the projections out there, I doubt either of CDH and Manson make it to Vegas.

So it turned out both Manson & CDH are available.

Anyways, notable defensemen available:

Anaheim-Vatanen (26) $4,875,000 (UFA 2020) (RD)
Anaheim-Manson (25) $825,000 (RFA 2018) (RD)
Buffalo-Bogosian (26) $5,142,857 (UFA 2020) (RD)
Chicago-Van Riemsdyk (25) $825,000 (RFA 2018) (RD)
Columbus-Johnson (30) $4,357,143 (UFA 2018) (LD)
Colorado-Wiercioch (26) $800,000 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Dallas-Hamhuis (34) $3,750,000 (UFA 2018) (LD)
Dallas-Oleksiak (24) $918,750 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Detroit-Ouellet (23) $715,000 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Florida-Demers (29) $4,500,000 (UFA 2021) (RD)
L.A.-McNabb (26) $1,700,000 (UFA 2018) (LD)
Minnesota-Dumba (22) $2,550,000 (RFA 2018) (RD)
N.Y.I.-De Haan (26) $1,966,667 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Tampa-Koekkoek (23) $894,167 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Washington-Schmidt (25) $812,500 (RFA 2017) (LD)

Lots of quality defensemen. Still hoping a deal for CDH or Oullet becomes reality for the Jets.

 

[WPGChief]

So it turned out both Manson & CDH are available.

Anyways, notable defensemen available:

Anaheim-Vatanen (26) $4,875,000 (UFA 2020) (RD)
Anaheim-Manson (25) $825,000 (RFA 2018) (RD)
Buffalo-Bogosian (26) $5,142,857 (UFA 2020) (RD)
Chicago-Van Riemsdyk (25) $825,000 (RFA 2018) (RD)
Columbus-Johnson (30) $4,357,143 (UFA 2018) (LD)
Colorado-Wiercioch (26) $800,000 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Dallas-Hamhuis (34) $3,750,000 (UFA 2018) (LD)
Dallas-Oleksiak (24) $918,750 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Detroit-Ouellet (23) $715,000 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Florida-Demers (29) $4,500,000 (UFA 2021) (RD)
L.A.-McNabb (26) $1,700,000 (UFA 2018) (LD)
Minnesota-Dumba (22) $2,550,000 (RFA 2018) (RD)
N.Y.I.-De Haan (26) $1,966,667 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Tampa-Koekkoek (23) $894,167 (RFA 2017) (LD)
Washington-Schmidt (25) $812,500 (RFA 2017) (LD)

Lots of quality defensemen. Still hoping a deal for CDH or Oullet becomes reality for the Jets.

1617 GAR numbers for this lot, highlighted the LD:

My eyes are strictly on De Haan, but I'm also looking at Ouellet and McNabb as a fallback. Pretty sure most of this crop is better than the UFA Ds this offseason as well.