Which team is more likely to make the playoffs: Dallas or Edmonton?

[McXLNC97]

They just allowed over 7 expected goals against the Flyers. That’s practically unheard of. Their results might look great but there are questions about the process that has led them to those results.

Expected goals? lol...what kinda bullcrap is that?....game is based on REAL results....they gave up 3 goals....not 7 imaginary ones.

 

[McXLNC97]

Here is where the shots they allowed on the ice:

You don’t need a spreadsheet to know that this isn’t good.

Gee i guess that's what the goalies are there for then...you know, to stop those pucks from all different areas on the ice.

 

[ijuka]

Oilers are clearly more likely to make the playoffs, with just the points advantage alone.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Expected goals? lol...what kinda bullcrap is that?....game is based on REAL results....they gave up 3 goals....not 7 imaginary ones.

The shots they allowed are REAL results.

Here is where the shots they allowed on the ice:

You don’t need a spreadsheet to know that this isn’t good.

Expected goals is just saying that based on how the past decade+ of NHL hockey has played out, a team on average will allow about 7 goals when they allow that volume of quality shots.

Gee i guess that's what the goalies are there for then...you know, to stop those pucks from all different areas on the ice.

If Koskinen consistently allowed only 3 goals facing that kind of shot volume, he would be posting by far the greatest goaltending performance of all time.

 

[McXLNC97]

The shots they allowed are REAL results.



Expected goals is just saying that based on how the past decade+ of NHL hockey has played out, a team on average will allow about 7 goals when they allow that volume of quality shots.

The shots were 27-18 going into the 3rd period. The score was 5-1...Oilers made it 6-1 early in the 3rd. The Flyers outshot the Oilers 25-4 in the 3rd period, so the majority of those shots came from garbage time when the game was already in the bag.

 

[McXLNC97]

The shots they allowed are REAL results.



Expected goals is just saying that based on how the past decade+ of NHL hockey has played out, a team on average will allow about 7 goals when they allow that volume of quality shots.



If Koskinen consistently allowed only 3 goals facing that kind of shot volume, he would be posting by far the greatest goaltending performance of all time.

Like i said, 25 shots came in the 3rd period when the game was already out of reach. Difference in shots was only 9 going into the 3rd period. Your putting way too much emphasis on stat padding in garbage time. Oilers were coasting that final period.

 

[Steven Toast]

Joe Rooster is trying to argue that 1 poor team performance from the Oilers (that they still won) means the 9 point advantage in the standings is bunk. I'm not sure why anyone takes him seriously on this forum.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

The shots were 27-18 going into the 3rd period. The score was 5-1...Oilers made it 6-1 early in the 3rd. The Flyers outshot the Oilers 25-4 in the 3rd period, so the majority of those shots came from garbage time when the game was already in the bag.

According to Natural Stat Trick, of the 6.63 expected goals they allowed (something must have changed from the data that said 7.43), 3.59 came in the first two periods.

Look, last night’s game was obviously an outlier that was in part driven by score effects. They are not going to allow 6 expected goals per game in the season no matter what happens. But there have been issues with the process that has led them to their results so far. That is all I’m saying.

Joe Rooster is trying to argue that 1 poor team performance from the Oilers (that they still won) means the 9 point advantage in the standings is bunk. I'm not sure why anyone takes him seriously on this forum.

I literally voted for the Oilers in this poll. Try actually responding to the argument that is being made instead of using straw men and personal attacks.

 

[Steven Toast]

Why on earth are you making a huge deal out of 1 game then? Dallas has certainly turned in poor defensive performances as well.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Why on earth are you making a huge deal out of 1 game then? Dallas has certainly turned in poor defensive performances as well.

I’m not making a huge deal out of 1 game. I just mentioned the underlying metrics from the game that they had just played in response to a poster who said they looked great. It was everybody else who decided to make a huge deal out of me mentioning that game.

 

[ColbyChaos]

Dallas was always incredibly overrated even last year Bishop needed to be perfect to even make the post season since their offense barely even scored 200 goals

 

[Steven Toast]

I’m not making a huge deal out of 1 game. I just mentioned the underlying metrics from the game that they had just played in response to a poster who said they looked great. It was everybody else who decided to make a huge deal out of me mentioning that game.

You are using a poor defensive performance in 1 game to try and justify creating a really dumb poll. Go ahead and try to backpedal if you want.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

You are using a poor defensive performance in 1 game to try and justify creating a really dumb poll. Go ahead and try to backpedal if you want.

You should just not respond to me if you’re going to do such a horrible job of misrepresenting everything I say. Try actually reading.

 

[Steven Toast]

You should just not respond to me if you’re going to do such a horrible job of misrepresenting everything I say. Try actually reading.

First comment in this thread questions why the poll is necessary. You justify the poll by bringing up the 1 poor game.

How exactly am I misrepresenting you?

 

[Stopsight]

Edmonton just because of divisions

 

[McDavidCrushedLarkin]

This is why hockey is played on the ice - not on spreadsheets.

 

[POVERTY]

Dallas is trash so Edmonton

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

First comment in this thread questions why the poll is necessary. You justify the poll by bringing up the 1 poor game.

How exactly am I misrepresenting you?

I said that the results look great, but the process that led them there hasn’t. That was just one example of an issue with the process. And that wasn’t to justify the poll. That was just in response to somebody who said they looked great.

There is plenty of other evidence to justify the poll. If I was trying to do that, I would’ve started with one of these:

- Micah McCurdy’s standings projection model still has Dallas ahead of Edmonton.

- If both teams play the rest of the season at the same pace that they did last season, Dallas will finish with 83 points and Edmonton will finish with 84 points.

- Dallas, with one of the league’s strongest goaltending duos, have a team save percentage of 88.94%. Edmonton with one of the worst goaltending duos have a team save percentage of 91.77%. Edmonton also has a shooting percentage of 15.64%, compared to 6.67% for Dallas. There is some major regression due for both teams in the PDO department.

- Edmonton came from behind to win in all but one of their games.

- At all situations, Dallas has an xGF% of 52.74%, while Edmonton is at 40.50%. At 5-on-5, Dallas has a score/venue-adjusted xGF% of 49.20%, while Edmonton is at 44.64%.

There is plenty of “justification” for this poll. While I do think that Edmonton is the better pick here, I think it’s close, and I think recency bias is heavily responsible for the 80-20 split in voting.

 

[Steven Toast]

"Evidence", here we go.

Micah McCurdy’s standings projection model still has Dallas ahead of Edmonton.

1 person's model/opinon isn't evidence. Dom Luszczyszyn's on theathletic has Edm ahead of Dallas.

- If both teams play the rest of the season at the same pace that they did last season, Dallas will finish with 83 points and Edmonton will finish with 84 points.

Why would you assume they will revert back to last years pace? Both teams have changed quite a bit. In order to get to 92 points (roughly the cutoff for playoffs) Edmonton would need 80 points in 75 games (87 point pace). Dallas would need 89 points in 74 games (99 point pace). It's pretty obvious to me which is more likely here.

- Dallas, with one of the league’s strongest goaltending duos, have a team save percentage of 88.94%. Edmonton with one of the worst goaltending duos have a team save percentage of 91.77%. Edmonton also has a shooting percentage of 15.64%, compared to 6.67% for Dallas. There is some major regression due for both teams in the PDO department

Dallas goaltending may improve, it may not. Its lazy to just assume it will revert back to how it was last year. Ditto for Edmonton.

- Edmonton came from behind to win in all but one of their games.

The come from behind stat is really over stated. Edmonton has had the lead for an average of 20:33/game. Been tied for 29:21/game. They have been behind for only 10:50/game, 6th least amount in the whole NHL. They have only trailed by more than 1 goal ONCE this year against Chicago. Dallas on the other hand has had the lead for 5:48/game, been tied for 23:31/game, and been behind for 31:25/game (29th place) Source: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/leadingtrailing

- At all situations, Dallas has an xGF% of 52.74%, while Edmonton is at 40.50%. At 5-on-5, Dallas has a score/venue-adjusted xGF% of 49.20%, while Edmonton is at 44.64%.

Its no secret the Oilers are riding a PDO wave, props for pointing that out. They will fall back to earth somewhat and I don't expect them to win 6 of 7 going forward.

All in all not much justification for this poll. An 80-20 split if anything is closer than it should be.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

"Evidence", here we go.


1 person's model/opinon isn't evidence. Dom Luszczyszyn's on theathletic has Edm ahead of Dallas.


Why would you assume they will revert back to last years pace? Both teams have changed quite a bit. In order to get to 92 points (roughly the cutoff for playoffs) Edmonton would need 80 points in 75 games (87 point pace). Dallas would need 89 points in 74 games (99 point pace). It's pretty obvious to me which is more likely here.


Dallas goaltending may improve, it may not. Its lazy to just assume it will revert back to how it was last year. Ditto for Edmonton.


The come from behind stat is really over stated. Edmonton has had the lead for an average of 20:33/game. Been tied for 29:21/game. They have been behind for only 10:50/game, 6th least amount in the whole NHL. They have only trailed by more than 1 goal ONCE this year against Chicago. Dallas on the other hand has had the lead for 5:48/game, been tied for 23:31/game, and been behind for 31:25/game (29th place) Source: https://morehockeystats.com/teams/leadingtrailing


Its no secret the Oilers are riding a PDO wave, props for pointing that out. They will fall back to earth somewhat and I don't expect them to win 6 of 7 going forward.

All in all not much justification for this poll. An 80-20 split if anything is closer than it should be.

If you can convince yourself that not only might Dallas possibly maintain a 88.94% SV% over the course of the season, and not only might Edmonton possibly maintain a 91.77% SV% over the course of the season, but that both of these things might possibly happen, then you can convince yourself of anything.

 

[justafan22]

Edmonton.

You can't make the playoffs in October, but you can certainly dig yourself enough of a hole that you won't make them.

 

[Skolman]

They just allowed over 7 expected goals against the Flyers. That’s practically unheard of. Their results might look great but there are questions about the process that has led them to those results.

Hahaha what on earth....?

 

[spiny norman]

Lopsided result.