Which team is more likely to make the playoffs: Dallas or Edmonton?

[TomasHertlsRooster]

We’re at a weird point in the season where the sample size is probably too small to draw any meaningful conclusions on what teams are for real, but where some teams have either earned or missed out on enough points that their point totals will significantly impact their playoff odds.

Edmonton is 6-1-0. They’ve earned 12 of a possible 14 points.
Dallas is 1-6-1. They’ve earned 3 of a possible 16 points.

Who is more likely to make the playoffs?

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[SillyRabbit]

Was a poll for this really necessary? The Stars look awful and the Oilers look great.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Was a poll for this really necessary? The Stars look awful and the Oilers look great.

They just allowed over 7 expected goals against the Flyers. That’s practically unheard of. Their results might look great but there are questions about the process that has led them to those results.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

Edmonton plays in a crappy division and I was unsure if Dallas would make the playoffs before this season.

 

[izzy]

id guess neither, edmonton is more likely

 

[bobholly39]

Im one of the few who would have said Edm before the season.

So obviously - still them today

 

[wetcoast]

They just allowed over 7 expected goals against the Flyers. That’s practically unheard of. Their results might look great but there are questions about the process that has led them to those results.

The Oilers are still a good enough team to make the playoffs.

I have no idea on what is wrong in Dallas other than their PP isn't clicking at all right now.

 

[snipes]

They just allowed over 7 expected goals against the Flyers. That’s practically unheard of. Their results might look great but there are questions about the process that has led them to those results.

Good thing hockey isn’t played on a spreadsheet.

 

[Kranix]

Good thing hockey isn’t played on a spreadsheet.

Chia's greatest signing, Koskinen, held them in that game.

 

[snipes]

Chia's greatest signing, Koskinen, held them in that game.

Definitely.

But there’s also a difference about who gets prime scoring chances.

Guys who can bury chances >>> volume perimeter shooters and guys that lack elite finish.

Russia/Soviets rode that formula since they started playing.

And so I’m clear, I definitely don’t advocate for being outshot every game, but there’s more to hockey than the Corsi cup despite what some say.

 

[oXo Cube]

They just allowed over 7 expected goals against the Flyers. That’s practically unheard of. Their results might look great but there are questions about the process that has led them to those results.

I get where you're coming from here but it's still a weird poll because it's not like the Stars have been overly impressive in the corsi department.

In general it's pretty damn hard to climb out of a big hole once you've dug one. As they say you can't make the playoffs in October but you sure can miss them.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Really don't like the direction the Stars are headed
Give me the Oilers
Dallas IMO needs to blow it up!

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

They just allowed over 7 expected goals against the Flyers. That’s practically unheard of. Their results might look great but there are questions about the process that has led them to those results.

and they only allowed 3 real goals which resulted in a win

not sure how "expected goals against" is a predictor for future results but you do you

 

[Spilot23]

What's funny about this thread is that if you started that before the season you would've probably got laughed at or flamed. Oilers are looking good this year while Dallas is having a slow start ? I haven't quite watched them what is happening in Dallas can someone explain ?

 

[Steven Toast]

The Oilers are riding a PDO wave right now, but having 12 of a possible 14 points is huge.

To make the playoffs they need ~80 points in 75 remaining games.

Dallas needs ~89 points in 74 remaining games.

The Oilers are much more likely to make it, despite being fairly lucky so far this year.

 

[Tad Mikowsky]

Can’t be thrilled with the Oilers underlying stats, but having those banked points by American Thanksgiving will be huge.

 

[JustinCase]

Oilers at this point.

Honestly not sure what the hell is going on in Dallas. I know it's still early, and all we have to do is look at St Louis from last year to tell us that anything is possible.
The Stars are a team that took the eventual champs to game 7 OT, and have since added Pavelski & Perry.
Before the season started I had Dallas as a lock to finish top 3 in the Central.

 

[Ghost of Kyiv]

Edmonton if I had to choose, but I'm betting neither make it.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Good thing hockey isn’t played on a spreadsheet.

Here is where the shots they allowed on the ice:

You don’t need a spreadsheet to know that this isn’t good.

 

[The Red Line]

The Stars are garbage this season. They have a TON of work to do to make the playoffs.

 

[snipes]

Here is where the shots they allowed on the ice:

You don’t need a spreadsheet to know that this isn’t good.

Does that encapsulate the quality of the shooter? A shot from McDavid and Draisaitl is different than a shot from Hayes.

Wait 20-30 games before giving weight to team analytics.

But yes, obviously being outshot with regularity is not a recipe for success but hockey is played on the ice. Some guys are finishers.

 

[AveryStar4Eva]

Playing the numbers game the Oilers are more likely to make it. On top of that Dallas has not only been losing, but we’ve been playing pretty badly as well so it’s not a matter of being unlucky. In reality I expect both teams to miss as Dallas has to play lights out for the rest of the season to make it and Edmonton will have to keep riding their top two to make it, I don’t see that lasting a full 82 games.

 

[Machinehead]

Here is where the shots they allowed on the ice:

You don’t need a spreadsheet to know that this isn’t good.

Didn't anyone tell AV he walked into the wrong bench last night?

 

[Regal]

I really liked how Dallas looked in the playoffs last year and expected them to build off it this year so the start is pretty surprising, and while I think they can turn it around the fact that they don't look good either means by the time they do they probably won't be able to make up ground, especially in that division. The Oilers are certainly riding some luck here, and I'm still not sold on them making it, but banking these points early is huge and with the Pacific being pretty weak, I'd say they have a much better shot at this point.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Does that encapsulate the quality of the shooter? A shot from McDavid and Draisaitl is different than a shot from Hayes.

Wait 20-30 games before giving weight to team analytics.

But yes, obviously being outshot with regularity is not a recipe for success but hockey is played on the ice. Some guys are finishers.

These shots aren’t all just Hayes’ shots though. It’s hard to make out the names because there are so many, but just in that blob in the middle at even strength I see Van Riemsdyk at least 4 times, and then another 2 from him in the blob in the power play. JVR’s actual goal total last season out-performed his expected goal total to a larger degree than McDavid’s.

No, the expected goal stats don’t account for the quality of shooter, but these were hardly a bunch of muffins from AHL players.

I don’t see any reason to wait 20-30 games before giving weight to analytics. And I’m not even putting heavy weight into them, I’m just saying that there is an issue with the process at hand when you are allowing that kind of volume of chances.

Didn't anyone tell AV he walked into the wrong bench last night?

Only one team allowed 7 expected goals in a game last season. AV wasn’t the coach.