Speculation: Which players are gone next year?

Which players will be gone next season


  • Total voters
    62
  • Poll closed .

Stickpucker

Playmaka
Jan 18, 2014
15,097
36,186
I was looking at Derek Ryan and Brock McGinn's numbers. I'm wondering what it is about McGinn that everyone loves, but with Ryan, everybody hates. Ryan's deployment was only slightly easier than McGinn's this season, but he was pretty much better in almost every metric except hits and GVAs and maybe a bit "luckier" in terms of OISH%. Is it just because McGinn plays a more physical game (which has value)?

I'm not advocating that Ryan be brought back, as I'd like the Canes to improve on the center position over him, but what makes us think McGinn will be anything more than a 4th liner?

RyanMcGinn
Goals1516
Points3830
+/--15-12
5v5 Goals1210
5v5 G/600.720.6
5v5 Points2722
5v5 P/601.611.33
CF%57.0554.36
CF% Rel3.29-0.33
PDO0.9570.968
OISH%7.085.93
OA SH%11.10%10.10%
Hits52137
GVA4834
TKA5438
Blks2717
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is a perfect example for the eye test vs fancy stats debate.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,101
This is a perfect example for the eye test vs fancy stats debate.

It is, but all of us are guilty of letting our biases affect our eye test (me included). I'm not a fan of Derek Ryan, but I think my dislike towards him also affects my judgement of him to some extent. I would have never guessed he was a more productive 5v5 scorer than McGinn.

The truth probably lies somewhere in between the eye test and the fancy stats.
 

WreckingCrew

Registered User
Feb 4, 2015
12,059
37,075
It is, but all of us are guilty of letting our biases affect our eye test (me included). I'm not a fan of Derek Ryan, but I think my dislike towards him also affects my judgement of him to some extent. I would have never guessed he was a more productive 5v5 scorer than McGinn.

The truth probably lies somewhere in between the eye test and the fancy stats.
I think part of it is also that McGinn sometimes seems to come through at clutch times, or just has a big, beautiful goal...he's memorable that way. On the other hand, while Ryan seems to get some good points on the board he's very streaky, and there are so many times where something good is being set up and then the play often tends to die on his stick or he makes egregious giveaways and ruins it. And yes, McGinn is much more physical, but he also has a shot that can really catch goalies off-guard. Ryan's not as bad as we make him out to be sometiems, but his point totals I think make him look better than he really is...if that makes sense?
 

A Star is Burns

Formerly Azor Aho
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Dec 6, 2011
12,270
38,836
When it comes to McGinn, I'll say what I said a few years ago with Nordstrom and Nestrasil after their hot streaks with Jordan and everyone was penciling in the same line for the next year. We'll be a better team with a guy like that being a fixture on the 4th line, and not the top 9. And that's not a slight against McGinn as he's improved each year and brings a lot of what we need on this team. I'd just much rather him be part of an amazing and productive 4th line (think Clutterbuck, Martin, Cizikas of a few years ago) that can move up at times, rather than having him in the top 9.

Ryan is definitely too streaky, doesn't create enough on his own, and loses battles as has been mentioned. If there was a way to guarantee he'd not leave a 4th line scenario like the one I mentioned above, you could do worse than him. But at least with the coach we currently have, that doesn't seem likely.
 

cptjeff

Reprehensible User
Sep 18, 2008
20,384
33,944
Washington, DC.
I absolutely envision McGinn as the ideal 3rd/4th liner. He's a valuable player in that role. Ryan OTOH, is kind of a guy without a role. He's not good enough to be on the top two lines on a good team, and he's not strong enough to win the kind of physical battles you need your 3rd/4th line guys to be able to win. Can he get some points? Sure. Can he get enough to compensate for being a complete non-entity defensively, in transition, physically? Have you ever seen him force a turnover? I don't really think so.
 

Boom Boom Apathy

I am the Professor. Deal with it!
Sep 6, 2006
48,174
97,101
If the Canes can find the right C, a 4th line of McGinn-X-Foegele would be an excellent 4th line. Give them 10 min. / night of ES time and each get a couple of min / night on the PK. Move one or both them up to the top 9 when other guys are injured, struggle or the team needs a spark. To me, that would be the ideal deployment, but we need more top 9 talent to be able to do that.
 

DaveG

Noted Jerk
Apr 7, 2003
51,016
47,854
Winston-Salem NC
If the Canes can find the right C, a 4th line of McGinn-X-Foegele would be an excellent 4th line. Give them 10 min. / night of ES time and each get a couple of min / night on the PK. Move one or both them up to the top 9 when other guys are injured, struggle or the team needs a spark. To me, that would be the ideal deployment, but we need more top 9 talent to be able to do that.
Reilly Nash want return a Carolina? Actually scratch that, dude's gonna get PAID by someone to be their #3 after the season he just had.

I'm hopeful about Clark Bishop in the long run but the guy isn't exactly an offensive machine in his own right. Wallmark is the most likely candidate though he's not ideal in the role.
 

MinJaBen

Canes Sharks Boy
Sponsor
Dec 14, 2015
20,678
79,638
Durm
If the Canes can find the right C, a 4th line of McGinn-X-Foegele would be an excellent 4th line. Give them 10 min. / night of ES time and each get a couple of min / night on the PK. Move one or both them up to the top 9 when other guys are injured, struggle or the team needs a spark. To me, that would be the ideal deployment, but we need more top 9 talent to be able to do that.

Victor Rask. Wins face offs, can score, defensively responsible. Unfortunately, not paid like a 4th line center.
 

Anton Dubinchuk

aho
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Jul 18, 2010
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Reilly Nash want return a Carolina? Actually scratch that, dude's gonna get PAID by someone to be their #3 after the season he just had.

I'm hopeful about Clark Bishop in the long run but the guy isn't exactly an offensive machine in his own right. Wallmark is the most likely candidate though he's not ideal in the role.

Scouting report on Bishop? What do you see there that makes you think he’s got NHL potential? Counting stats suggest a blah AHL bottom 6er, and at 22 he’s a little older.
 

DaveG

Noted Jerk
Apr 7, 2003
51,016
47,854
Winston-Salem NC
Scouting report on Bishop? What do you see there that makes you think he’s got NHL potential? Counting stats suggest a blah AHL bottom 6er, and at 22 he’s a little older.
Guy's got speed to burn and has had a rep since junior of being an exceptionally strong defensive forward. As I said though his scoring is a concern, but 22's also not really THAT old especially when he just turned 22 late last month. For reference his production is extremely similar to that of Nash at the same age at the same level, though Nash certainly had a pedigree of being more of a scorer for Cornell then Bishop did for Cape Breton. Bishop also had a rep for post-season production in juniors... not that he'd ever need that here in Raleigh :(
 
Last edited:

NotOpie

"Puck don't lie"
Jun 12, 2006
9,218
17,639
North Carolina
Yeah, there's no disagreement there. I've just seen most people have him firmly in the top 9 and some even top 6. I think "toughness to play against" aside, in order for him to be in that role, he needs to be more productive offensively. Don't get me wrong, I like McGinn and he's one of the few guys that throws hits and he's improved every year, so I'm not suggesting that we move him, nor do I think we will. I just think he'll need to take another step forward offensively in order to be entrenched in the top 9.

As other's have said, as the team gets more talent, McGinn becomes part of a better 4th line...occasionally able to fill in in the Top 9. When that is his role, I believe we really will be a playoff team (that's what I figured his role would be this year).

I'm not a fan of Derek Ryan, but I think my dislike towards him also affects my judgement of him to some extent.

I've never been a Ryan hater, but I do believe he's too weak on the puck, is super erratic defensively, and has more than his fair share of brain farts for a 31 year old player. Again, on a playoff team, he could be on a 4th line, but I'm not sure we couldn't do better than him there.
 

A Star is Burns

Formerly Azor Aho
Sponsor
Dec 6, 2011
12,270
38,836

  1. So with a lot of votes in now, I think the below are the most interesting results. People that we collectively have a greater than 50% confidence will be gone are PGD, Nordstrom, Dahlbeck, Kruger, and Darling (just barely). There's a pretty high confidence in Faulk and Rask being moved. There's a not insignificant amount that believe that a few of our most valuable trade chips in Skinner, Lindholm, and Hanifin will be dealt, but most seem to think they'll be held onto.

  1. I guess I also find it mildly interesting that there is almost no belief that Fleury would be traded. Not that I necessarily expect it, but he is a player that I believe could be moved in a package with some value, and is both somewhat replaceable within, or possibly with a more steady veteran presence.

  1. Overall, this has been a great exercise.
  1. Skinner22.2%
  2. Lindholm (RFA) 15.6%
  3. Hanifin (RFA) 15.6%
  4. Rask 44.4%
  5. Faulk 42.2%
  6. PDG (RFA)53.3%
  7. Nordstrom (RFA) 91.1%
  8. Dhalbeck (RFA) 68.9%
  9. Kruger 80.0%
  10. Darling 51.1%
 

Hulkacaniac

You MUST
Jun 4, 2015
1,712
9,331
NC
First one down. Report (In Russian) says Dahlbeck will sign in KHL (CSKA).
Шведский защитник Дальбек перейдёт в ЦСКА
Google Translate:

"Swedish defender Klas Dalbeck will sign a contract with CSKA Moscow at the end of the season.
According to "BUSINESS Online", the defender of "Carolina", whose agreement with the NHL club expires at the end of this season, will take one of the legionary vacancies in the army club.
In the current season, the 26-year-old defender held 33 matches in the regular season, in which he scored 5 (1 + 4) points with a score of -6. For his career in the NHL, Dalbek scored 23 (6 + 17) points in 170 games with a score of -31."
 

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