Value of: Which Players Actually Garner a 1st Round Pick at the TDL?

405Exit

Registered User
Mar 15, 2018
2,442
424
How does everyone leave off Silfverberg? He has 39 points in his last 44 playoff games. It's a guarantee he gets a 1st.

I was about to post the same. And he’s Ducks leading goal scorer right now on a horrible team.

He’s arguable for a first. But not to be mentioned at all? That’s a slap in the face.
 

Richard Menzel

Registered User
Jan 23, 2019
146
13
The speculation from Brooks about Zuccarello and Hayes talking about contract extensions with NYR have me wondering which rentals will actually fetch 1st round picks. Keep in mind there are teams who will be in the hunt who do not possess their own first such as: San Jose, Toronto and St. Louis. With teams becoming increasingly hesitant to part with their first round picks, the math doesn't add up to me for the rental market. Which of the following will net the selling team a first?

Panarin-yes
Bobrovsky-no
Stone-yes
Duchene-yes
Simmonds-no
Ferland-no
Hayes-no

Zuccarello-no
Dzingel-no
Johansson-
no
 

Volica

Papa Shango
May 15, 2012
21,391
11,074
Lotta disappointment this year to be passed around when only a few players return firsts.
 

rosscow

Registered User
Apr 5, 2015
714
223
How many contending teams even still have there first to trade? San Jose, Toronto and Tampa have all traded there 1st away.
 

Dooble08

Registered User
Jan 12, 2019
1,576
944
Panarin- Yes
Bobrovsky- Yes
Stone- Yes
Duchene- Yes
Simmonds- Yes
Ferland- No (probably not traded)
Hayes- Maybe
Zuccarello- No
Dzingel- No
Johansson- No
 

BlueBaron

Registered User
May 29, 2006
15,669
6,302
Sarnia, On
Because its a Maple Leaf post, they undervalue all Red Wing players. Can;t u tell from all the posts??
We do? Sorry man, it's this damn Hive mind. It's odd but we are the only fan base in the world that all see things and do them in exactly the same way. Or that was an incredibly foolish post...
 

ottawah

Registered User
Jan 7, 2011
3,469
605
For context:

YearGuaranteedConditional TotalPlayers Dealt
2009101Comrie (Traded With RFA Campoli, Though)
2010101Kovalchuk
2011101Kaberle
2012101Gaustad
2013224Iginla, Miller (Condition On Other Pick Not Met), Jagr
2014000
2015303Sekera, Vermette, Franson
2016112Ladd, Russell (Condition Not Met)
2017213Hanzal, Shattenkirk, Eaves
2018213Kane, Nash, Stastny
Average1.40.51.9
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
I counted those picks that gave the trading team the option of year as a guaranteed selection.

We're either going to see a real deviation from recent history or there will be some disappointed fans come deadline day. I think it will be the latter.

The simple argument is that the players available this year make that list look very very bad. The top 5 from this year are arguably more valuable than just about everyone on that list, and its even far deeper than that.

I think teams will be disappointed simply because there are not nearly as many buyers as assets up for trade.
 
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JTToilinginToronto

Isles Fan
Jan 18, 2019
4,667
4,786
Panarin, Duchene, Stone, and maybe Hayes will go for packages that include first round picks (or the equivalent in prospect).

The others on the list just don't have the relative value.
 

Meeqs

Registered User
Aug 23, 2012
9,295
1,677
USA
Stone and Duchene will and then only 1-2 others tops. I don't think we see many 1sts moved this year. There aren't many buyers.
 

Meeqs

Registered User
Aug 23, 2012
9,295
1,677
USA
Panarin- Yes
Bobrovsky- Yes
Stone- Yes
Duchene- Yes
Simmonds- Possible... dont see it
Ferland- 2nd +
Hayes- Yes
Zuccarello- Late 1st +
Dzingel- late 1st... Probably ends up being a 2nd +
Johansson- 2nd +

Question for you. Which teams do you think will be giving up all those 1sts?
 

Taluss

Registered User
Jul 28, 2018
8,250
5,902
NYC
Question for you. Which teams do you think will be giving up all those 1sts?

My best guess...
Panthers- Bobrovsky, Panarin
Jets- Stone
Isles- Panarin or Duchene
Preds- Zuc
Knights- Duchene or Panarin
Avs- Hayes (maybe not now cuz of their record)

Canes and Flames I think will be players

Hayes and Zuc are iffy on getting a 1st for me but if I had to bet I'd say they both would. Dzingle I think can if its a low 1st (not sure where) or if he goes to Oilers and we get the 1st from taking on Sekera or Lucic.
 

Crede777

Deputized
Dec 16, 2009
14,611
4,124
Lotta disappointment this year to be passed around when only a few players return firsts.
A lot of disappointment I think when teams - even rebuilding ones - opt for a conservative approach and only a few players are moved.
 

thadd

Oil4Life
Jun 9, 2007
26,717
2,718
Canada
Panarin- Yes
Bobrovsky- Yes
Stone- Yes
Duchene- Yes
Simmonds- Possible... dont see it
Ferland- 2nd +
Hayes- Yes
Zuccarello- Late 1st +
Dzingel- late 1st... Probably ends up being a 2nd +
Johansson- 2nd +

If all that comes to fruition it's going to be the weirdest draft ever.
I don't see it happening.
 

Coach Parker

Stanley Cup Champion
Jun 22, 2008
21,888
8,233
Vancouver, B.C.
I think this is the year you see former first from the last two drafts perhaps moved instead of the actual future pick.

Example, I can see the Bruins moving Zboril or Frederic who were both 1sts and progressing and ready for the NHL for a rental.
 

Meeqs

Registered User
Aug 23, 2012
9,295
1,677
USA
My best guess...
Panthers- Bobrovsky, Panarin
Jets- Stone
Isles- Panarin or Duchene
Preds- Zuc
Knights- Duchene or Panarin
Avs- Hayes (maybe not now cuz of their record)

Canes and Flames I think will be players

Hayes and Zuc are iffy on getting a 1st for me but if I had to bet I'd say they both would. Dzingle I think can if its a low 1st (not sure where) or if he goes to Oilers and we get the 1st from taking on Sekera or Lucic.

Regardless of where they go I was just curious how many teams you think would actually move their 1st's this year, as to me that is the real limiting factor here. As was mentioned earlier the average is 1.9 1st rounders moved on TDL day.

Fla and Col certainly aren't moving what will likely be high 1sts. However even so while I could see it happening, 4+ teams moving 1sts would be pretty high.
 

captainpaxil

Registered User
Dec 2, 2008
4,645
1,194
I honestly don't think alot of the mentioned players move. Panarin and bobrovski and one of stone or duchene. Ottowa will get a 1st+++ . while the high end is very attractive this year i think the majority will be depth additions as few of the buyers seem able to commit the assets these players would require
 

DemidovSaveUs

Danila Yurov Fan Club Executive Assistant
May 2, 2018
18,568
11,645
The speculation from Brooks about Zuccarello and Hayes talking about contract extensions with NYR have me wondering which rentals will actually fetch 1st round picks. Keep in mind there are teams who will be in the hunt who do not possess their own first such as: San Jose, Toronto and St. Louis. With teams becoming increasingly hesitant to part with their first round picks, the math doesn't add up to me for the rental market. Which of the following will net the selling team a first?

Panarin-
Bobrovsky-
Stone-
Duchene-
Simmonds-
Ferland-
Hayes-
Zuccarello-
Dzingel-
Johansson-
Didn’t even think to put staal:(
 

HOPE

Goal Caufield!
Jun 30, 2011
7,336
5,229
Montreal
I'm gonna guess you see 3 guaranteed 1sts get traded and a pair of conditional 1sts. Stone gets a guaranteed first, Hayes gets a 1st, and Panarin gets a 1st.


Duchene gets a conditional 1st that is based on him re-signing with the team he's traded to, but gets a higher quality prospect instead as compensation for the conditional 1st. And Bobrovsky gets a conditional 1st based upon his play in the playoffs, along the lines of if he gets 4 wins in the playoffs the Jackets will get a 1st rounder.


Ferland, Zuccarello, Simmonds, Dzingel, etc. all get 2nds + B or C level prospects.

Quality prospect > late 1st

Panarin > Duchene
 

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