Which is more likely - a goalie putting up .940 over 50+ games or a defenseman scoring 30+ goals?

[Cloned]

For reference:

Mike Green scored 31 goals in 2008-09. Burns scored 29 in 2016-17.

Tim Thomas put up a .938 in 57 games in 2010-11. Several others have come close, some have put up .940+ in 40ish games.

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[bobholly39]

For reference:

Mike Green scored 31 goals in 2008-09. Burns scored 29 in 2016-17.

Tim Thomas put up a .938 in 57 games in 2010-11. Several others have come close, some have put up .940+ in 40ish games.

I think you kind of answered your own question OP with these examples.

Tim Thomas's 2011 season is regarded as one of the all-time best goalie seasons. Not top 5 best or anything, but it's up there. Won Vezina very easily

Mike Green scored 31 and didn't even win the Norris. It's a good season, but it's never talked about as an all-time great season for defensemen. Burns won the Norris, but same idea, good season, but not an all-time great season.

I think 30 goals is a lot more attainable.

 

[Cloned]

I think you kind of answered your own question OP with these examples.

Tim Thomas's 2011 season is regarded as one of the all-time best goalie seasons. Not top 5 best or anything, but it's up there. Won Vezina very easily

Mike Green scored 31 and didn't even win the Norris. It's a good season, but it's never talked about as an all-time great season for defensemen. Burns won the Norris, but same idea, good season, but not an all-time great season.

I think 30 goals is a lot more attainable.

There’s some era bias though. A .940 was impossible in the 80s for example, while most of the “all time great” 30+ goal seasons by defensemen came in the 80s.

Both have been shown to be in the realm of possibility within the last 10 years.

 

[ManofSteel55]

30 goals is something that could happen nearly any year in the right situation. A .940 season for a goalie probably doesn't happen again for awhile. It would need to be one of the best goalie seasons ever.

 

[Cloned]

30 goals is something that could happen nearly any year in the right situation. A .940 season for a goalie probably doesn't happen again for awhile. It would need to be one of the best goalie seasons ever.

Brian Elliott put up a .940 over ~40 games a few years ago. Burns nearly scored 30 a few years ago. Both can happen in the right situation, and I don’t think anyone was calling Elliott’s year one of the best goalie seasons ever.

 

[Varan]

Mike Green answers this question

 

[bobholly39]

There’s some era bias though. A .940 was impossible in the 80s for example, while most of the “all time great” 30+ goal seasons by defensemen came in the 80s.

Both have been shown to be in the realm of possibility within the last 10 years.

I know era's matter - but here are some stats put in a different light.

17x in NHL history a defensemen scored 30 or more goals in an NHL season.
If you expand it to 25+ goals (+/- 5 goals doesn't seem like a huge bar) it happened 43x, including 5x since the turn of the century (2000).

With offensive talented defensemen like Hughes, Makar, Fox and others - I don't think it's a huge stretch to see it happening again soon, and maybe multiple times.

In contrast - 940+ sv% for 50+ games has never been done in the NHL
The only 2 who got kind of close were Thomas (938 in 2011) and Hasek (937 in 1999). Than you have Price (933 in 2015) and Thomas again (933 in 2009), which aren't that close to 940.
If you expand it to 40+ games, you do have Plante in 1971 who put forth 944 sv%. But no one else, and nothing recent (Bishop in 2019 had 934, in 46 games).

Another way of looking at it. If you tell me a goalie next season will have 940 sv%+ in 50+ games - I'd respond and say "cool, I bet he wins hart/lindsay/vezina, or is a strong finalist minimum".
If you told me a defensemen were to score 30+ goals, I'd say "cool, I wonder if he'll win the Norris"

First one seems like a bigger accomplishment

 

[Cloned]

I know era's matter - but here are some stats put in a different light.

17x in NHL history a defensemen scored 30 or more goals in an NHL season.
If you expand it to 25+ goals (+/- 5 goals doesn't seem like a huge bar) it happened 43x, including 5x since the turn of the century (2000).

With offensive talented defensemen like Hughes, Makar, Fox and others - I don't think it's a huge stretch to see it happening again soon, and maybe multiple times.

In contrast - 940+ sv% for 50+ games has never been done in the NHL
The only 2 who got kind of close were Thomas (938 in 2011) and Hasek (937 in 1999). Than you have Price (933 in 2015) and Thomas again (933 in 2009), which aren't that close to 940.
If you expand it to 40+ games, you do have Plante in 1971 who put forth 944 sv%. But no one else, and nothing recent (Bishop in 2019 had 934, in 46 games).

Another way of looking at it. If you tell me a goalie next season will have 940 sv%+ in 50+ games - I'd respond and say "cool, I bet he wins hart/lindsay/vezina, or is a strong finalist minimum".
If you told me a defensemen were to score 30+ goals, I'd say "cool, I wonder if he'll win the Norris"

First one seems like a bigger accomplishment

I think it balances out.

A lot of the 25-30 goal seasons came in higher scoring eras. A lot of the .935+ seasons have come in more recent years. In the last 10 years we’ve had two defensemen score 29+ goals and several goalies put up .935+ over ~40 games.

 

[SUX2BU]

For reference:

Mike Green scored 31 goals in 2008-09. Burns scored 29 in 2016-17.

Tim Thomas put up a .938 in 57 games in 2010-11. Several others have come close, some have put up .940+ in 40ish games.

Next season, neither

 

[SannywithoutCompy]

I think you kind of answered your own question OP with these examples.

Tim Thomas's 2011 season is regarded as one of the all-time best goalie seasons. Not top 5 best or anything, but it's up there. Won Vezina very easily

Mike Green scored 31 and didn't even win the Norris. It's a good season, but it's never talked about as an all-time great season for defensemen. Burns won the Norris, but same idea, good season, but not an all-time great season.

I think 30 goals is a lot more attainable.

Why would Thomas not be top 5 there? He put up a .938, winning the vezina in the regular season and then a .940 in a cup and conn Smythe winning playoff run. It would be hard to find one season better than that from a goalie, let alone 5.

 

[bobholly39]

Why would Thomas not be top 5 there? He put up a .938, winning the vezina in the regular season and then a .940 in a cup and conn Smythe winning playoff run. It would be hard to find one season better than that from a goalie, let alone 5.

If you combine regular season and playoffs he has a more compelling case. I was looking at regular season alone though. You can probably argue he's top 5 for regular season alone if you wanted to, but without looking at it too closely I think he's probably farther back.

 

[wetcoast]

I think you kind of answered your own question OP with these examples.

Tim Thomas's 2011 season is regarded as one of the all-time best goalie seasons. Not top 5 best or anything, but it's up there. Won Vezina very easily

Mike Green scored 31 and didn't even win the Norris. It's a good season, but it's never talked about as an all-time great season for defensemen. Burns won the Norris, but same idea, good season, but not an all-time great season.

I think 30 goals is a lot more attainable.

With Makar in the league I think the poll would have been more fair if it said 35 goals for a Dman.