Hockey Outsider
Registered User
- Jan 16, 2005
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Not every goalie faces shots of the same difficulty. Shots from certain players are more difficult to stop than average, while others are easier. I am attempting to adjust for this.
For example, if Brendan Shanahan shoots, he has an 8.9% chance of scoring (25 goals on 280 shots). Thus, an average goalie will allow 0.089 goals per shot, and make 0.911 saves. If a goalie faced nothing but Shanahan shots, he'd be expected to save 91.1% of them. More complex example: Brendan Shanahan, Kris Draper and Nicklas Lidstrom have shooting percentages of 8.9%, 15.5%, and 5.2%, respectively. If a goalie faced five shots from Shanahan, two from Draper and three from Lidstrom, he would be expected to allow 0.911 goals and make 9.089 saves. Since the goalie faced ten shots, this corresponds to an expected save percentage of 90.89%. A high expected save percentage means the goalie faces easy shots, and a low expected save percentage means the goalie faces hard shots.
I compiled this data for every goalie for 2004. Here are the results:
Expected Save Percentage
(Ranked from highest/easiest shots to lowest/most difficult shots)
1 TOSKALA_SJS 91.5%
2 HEDBERG_VAN 91.3%
3 KIPRUSOFF_CGY 91.3%
4 DIPIETRO_NYI 91.3%
5 TUREK_CGY 91.3%
6 SAUVE_COL 91.2%
7 THIBAULT_CHI 91.2%
8 LEGACE_DET 91.1%
9 BRATHWAITE_CBJ 91.1%
10 NORONEN_BUF 91.1%
11 GERBER_ANA 91.1%
12 MARKKANEN_NYR 91.1%
13 VOKOUN_NAS 91.1%
14 NABOKOV_SJS 91.1%
15 MCLENNAN_CGY 91.1%
16 GRAHAME_TBL 91.1%
17 LEIGHTON_CHI 91.1%
18 BOUCHER_PHO 91.0%
19 FERNANDEZ_MIN 91.0%
20 JOSEPH_DET 91.0%
21 ESCHE_PHI 91.0%
22 ROLOSON_MIN 91.0%
23 LALIME_OTT 91.0%
24 BURKE_PHO 91.0%
25 DENIS_CBJ 91.0%
26 KOLZIG_WAS 90.9%
27 CONKLIN_EDM 90.9%
28 KHABIBULIN_TBL 90.9%
29 AEBISCHER_COL 90.9%
30 CECHMANEK_LAK 90.9%
31 DUNHAM_NYR 90.9%
32 TURCO_DAL 90.9%
33 CARON_PIT 90.8%
34 GARON_MTL 90.8%
35 FLEURY_PIT 90.8%
36 LUONGO_FLA 90.8%
37 HUET_LAK 90.8%
38 NURMINEN_ATL 90.8%
39 BRODEUR_NJD 90.8%
40 AUBIN_PIT 90.8%
41 ANDERSON_CHI 90.8%
42 GIGUERE_ANA 90.8%
43 SALO_EDM 90.8%
44 CLOUTIER_VAN 90.8%
45 BELFOUR_TOR 90.7%
46 THEODORE_MTL 90.7%
47 WEEKES_CAR 90.7%
48 DAFOE_ATL 90.7%
49 BIRON_BUF 90.6%
50 HACKETT_PHI 90.6%
51 OSGOOD_STL 90.6%
52 RAYCROFT_BOS 90.5%
53 SNOW_NYI 90.5%
54 POTVIN_BOS 90.4%
55 PRUSEK_OTT 90.2%
Quick observations:
- At the top of the list we see a lot of goalies from San Jose and Calgary. Clearly, these teams do an excellent job of protecting their goalies.
- It was a bad year to be a goalie in Boston. Raycroft and Potvin are both in the bottom four in terms of shot difficulty.
- Theodore was left for dead by his defense. How things have changed in Montreal… I wonder what Ken Dryden would say.
- It’s interesting to note that DiPietro faced among the easiest shots in the league, while Snow faced some of the hardest. They played behind the same defense, so why is Snow facing much tougher shots? Did he consistently play against better teams? Did the Islanders open up when he was in net?
- This data doesn't support the "Brodeur faces really easy shots" theory. In fact, it shows us that Brodeur faces tougher shots than most goalies.
For example, if Brendan Shanahan shoots, he has an 8.9% chance of scoring (25 goals on 280 shots). Thus, an average goalie will allow 0.089 goals per shot, and make 0.911 saves. If a goalie faced nothing but Shanahan shots, he'd be expected to save 91.1% of them. More complex example: Brendan Shanahan, Kris Draper and Nicklas Lidstrom have shooting percentages of 8.9%, 15.5%, and 5.2%, respectively. If a goalie faced five shots from Shanahan, two from Draper and three from Lidstrom, he would be expected to allow 0.911 goals and make 9.089 saves. Since the goalie faced ten shots, this corresponds to an expected save percentage of 90.89%. A high expected save percentage means the goalie faces easy shots, and a low expected save percentage means the goalie faces hard shots.
I compiled this data for every goalie for 2004. Here are the results:
Expected Save Percentage
(Ranked from highest/easiest shots to lowest/most difficult shots)
1 TOSKALA_SJS 91.5%
2 HEDBERG_VAN 91.3%
3 KIPRUSOFF_CGY 91.3%
4 DIPIETRO_NYI 91.3%
5 TUREK_CGY 91.3%
6 SAUVE_COL 91.2%
7 THIBAULT_CHI 91.2%
8 LEGACE_DET 91.1%
9 BRATHWAITE_CBJ 91.1%
10 NORONEN_BUF 91.1%
11 GERBER_ANA 91.1%
12 MARKKANEN_NYR 91.1%
13 VOKOUN_NAS 91.1%
14 NABOKOV_SJS 91.1%
15 MCLENNAN_CGY 91.1%
16 GRAHAME_TBL 91.1%
17 LEIGHTON_CHI 91.1%
18 BOUCHER_PHO 91.0%
19 FERNANDEZ_MIN 91.0%
20 JOSEPH_DET 91.0%
21 ESCHE_PHI 91.0%
22 ROLOSON_MIN 91.0%
23 LALIME_OTT 91.0%
24 BURKE_PHO 91.0%
25 DENIS_CBJ 91.0%
26 KOLZIG_WAS 90.9%
27 CONKLIN_EDM 90.9%
28 KHABIBULIN_TBL 90.9%
29 AEBISCHER_COL 90.9%
30 CECHMANEK_LAK 90.9%
31 DUNHAM_NYR 90.9%
32 TURCO_DAL 90.9%
33 CARON_PIT 90.8%
34 GARON_MTL 90.8%
35 FLEURY_PIT 90.8%
36 LUONGO_FLA 90.8%
37 HUET_LAK 90.8%
38 NURMINEN_ATL 90.8%
39 BRODEUR_NJD 90.8%
40 AUBIN_PIT 90.8%
41 ANDERSON_CHI 90.8%
42 GIGUERE_ANA 90.8%
43 SALO_EDM 90.8%
44 CLOUTIER_VAN 90.8%
45 BELFOUR_TOR 90.7%
46 THEODORE_MTL 90.7%
47 WEEKES_CAR 90.7%
48 DAFOE_ATL 90.7%
49 BIRON_BUF 90.6%
50 HACKETT_PHI 90.6%
51 OSGOOD_STL 90.6%
52 RAYCROFT_BOS 90.5%
53 SNOW_NYI 90.5%
54 POTVIN_BOS 90.4%
55 PRUSEK_OTT 90.2%
Quick observations:
- At the top of the list we see a lot of goalies from San Jose and Calgary. Clearly, these teams do an excellent job of protecting their goalies.
- It was a bad year to be a goalie in Boston. Raycroft and Potvin are both in the bottom four in terms of shot difficulty.
- Theodore was left for dead by his defense. How things have changed in Montreal… I wonder what Ken Dryden would say.
- It’s interesting to note that DiPietro faced among the easiest shots in the league, while Snow faced some of the hardest. They played behind the same defense, so why is Snow facing much tougher shots? Did he consistently play against better teams? Did the Islanders open up when he was in net?
- This data doesn't support the "Brodeur faces really easy shots" theory. In fact, it shows us that Brodeur faces tougher shots than most goalies.
