Which Defenseman will be high on the Leafs radar if Nylander is traded?

Cappuccino

Registered User
Aug 18, 2017
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the Netherlands
I don't see it from a value perspective unless they're adding pieces and retaining a ton of salary.

I figure Weber's worth a late first with salary retained at this point in his career

Didn't they just promote him to Captain? Not saying it became impossible to trade him, but not very likely.
 

Jeddie

Registered User
Sep 22, 2014
19
12
If Nylander has to be traded it wont be for a 3 - 5 years. Why not let him peak. Hes not going to hold out. If something long term cant happen, we bridge him and before his next deal you trade him for your D if that's what everyone wants..

I still vote to keep..
 

Not My Tempo

Registered User
Feb 22, 2015
3,663
3,701
Toronto
For what it's worth, here are some charts from HockeyViz for a couple of the right handed defensemen mentioned here. We'd be interested in the Isolated column as that their individual impact. The top graph is the offense they create compared to league average and the bottom is the offense they allow. So for example, Ryan Ellis generates 0.9% LESS offense compared to league average defensemen, and he allows 1.1% LESS offense compared to league average. Parayko on the other hand generates 3% MORE offense than league average and allows 8.5% LESS offense compared to league average.

Ryan Ellis:
sixfold-ellisry91-1618.png


Colton Parayko:
sixfold-parayco93-1618.png


Brett Pesce:
sixfold-pescebr94-1618.png


Josh Manson:
sixfold-mansojo91-1618.png


Matt Dumba:
sixfold-dumbama94-1618.png


Jared Spurgeon:
sixfold-spurgja89-1618.png


Rasmus Ristolainen:
sixfold-ristora94-1618.png
 

Dzonna

Registered User
Mar 28, 2017
1,034
430
I feel like 25% of the teams don’t have a player of nylanders skill, potential and youth. So if Dubas really wants to trade w a team that is bottom heavy I don’t believe it will be difficult. I feel like everyone here deep down wants him to stay to see how good our offence is.

My question is this: can’t leafs sign him to a one year deal and then in January sign him to an extension with a no trade clause??
 
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Peiskos

Registered User
Jan 4, 2018
3,665
3,614
If Dubas can convince the Sabres to unite the Nylander brothers, Risto. Worked when Flyers wanted to unite the Schenn brothers.

If the Leafs are going to eventually move Nylander, I'd prefer he goes outside the division and conference if possible, wouldn't want him coming back to haunt this team in future.
 

frog

Registered User
Apr 8, 2014
2,427
1,449
Canada
Colorado could be a great trading partner, They have 5 young/middle age/ up and coming star defensemen... but with little offense (Mackinnon,Rantanen excluded)

Tyson Barrie
Sam Girard (young top pairing offensive D)
Cale Makar (Top prospect, projected 1/2 Defensemen)
Connor Timmons (Top prospect)
Nikita Zadorov (Huge, physical, relatively young)
 

Peiskos

Registered User
Jan 4, 2018
3,665
3,614
To think, I mean if players really wanted Stanley Cups as much as they claim they could make it much more likely. Imagine if Erik Karlsson decided to come aboard for simply 1 year on this team, make a boatload for one fun year then go back to UFA for a long term payday.

Why don't players do this more often?

This current team with EK on it IMO solves all our problems back there even its just for one year, him alone could carry the puck out of our zone and make everything look elite...one could dream.
 

Leafsfan74

Registered User
Jul 2, 2018
4,781
4,914
If Nylander has to be traded it wont be for a 3 - 5 years. Why not let him peak. Hes not going to hold out. If something long term cant happen, we bridge him and before his next deal you trade him for your D if that's what everyone wants..

I still vote to keep..


This depends on how close the Leafs feel they are to being a legitimate Stanley Cup Champion. Let's say, at worst, they believe they can win two rounds with such a trade, in such a case you have to do it every single time.

Professional sports is about hitting while the iron is hot, when the hunger, talent and passion on the team is there, when it's ripe for success. The lottery win of Matthews put them well ahead of schedule, just as the Penguins winning the Crosby sweepstakes gave them success.

It's simple, in my eyes, Matthews and Marner are THE key players going forward. They have a strong team around them but lack 1-2 responsible, physical D men in my opinion to be a perennial threat to win the Cup for the next number of years. Doesn't mean they can't win with Nylander on the team and this defense, but I estimate it's more difficult, especially in he Cap era. They can't put themselves in a difficult spot and right up to the cap for the next 4 years.

There's only one puck. They have shown they can spread the offense around. They need to think about the playoffs and playoffs alone at this point. "What do we need to ensure success in the post-season"? It's defense unless the league has returned to the 1980's
 

Morbo

The Annihilator
Jan 14, 2003
27,100
5,734
Toronto
I don't think Spurgeon will be on the radar. He's the only one of this list where he could not be the primary piece in acquiring Nylander. He does not have enough value.

Gardiner-Spurgeon have similar value if we get a third team involved, or if Brodin moves to the RD.

I'd rather take Brodin and move him to RD than take Spurgeon.

If we get a defenceman as good as Jared Spurgeon for Nylander, I think you guys will be more than happy.
 

Cappuccino

Registered User
Aug 18, 2017
1,387
421
the Netherlands
To think, I mean if players really wanted Stanley Cups as much as they claim they could make it much more likely. Imagine if Erik Karlsson decided to come aboard for simply 1 year on this team, make a boatload for one fun year then go back to UFA for a long term payday.

Why don't players do this more often?

This current team with EK on it IMO solves all our problems back there even its just for one year, him alone could carry the puck out of our zone and make everything look elite...one could dream.

I don't think a player, as a UFA, wants to sign for only 1 year. If the player gets injured (career ending) he would miss out on (in the case of a player like EK) 70 million dollars.
 

Puckstuff

Registered User
May 12, 2010
11,037
3,267
Milton
Pesce and Tanev at the deadline

Gardiner for a 2nd
Nylander for Pesce + 1st
1st + 2nd for Tanev


Rielly-Pesce
Dermott-Zaitsev
Rosen-Tanev

Make right d great again
 
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hamzarocks

Registered User
Jul 22, 2012
20,123
13,067
Pickering, Ontario
Pesce and Tanev at the deadline

Gardiner for a 2nd
Nylander for Pesce + 1st
1st + 2nd for Tanev


Rielly-Pesce
Dermott-Zaitsev
Rosen-Tanev

Make right d great again

Gardiner has more value than broken tanev. Trading him for just a secon is hideous deal. Look at a shattenkirk type deal if we deal Gardiner at deadline
 

therealkoho

Him/Leaf/fan
Jul 10, 2009
17,011
8,202
the Prior
Gardiner for a 2nd???

Gardiner + Nylander + 2nd

Lindholm + Henrique + Larsson

it's a cap trade and may mean the difference with Matty, in fact to get it done i'd even bump that up to a 1st
 
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lipstickjunkie

Registered User
Jan 5, 2017
612
713
For what it's worth, here are some charts from HockeyViz for a couple of the right handed defensemen mentioned here. We'd be interested in the Isolated column as that their individual impact. The top graph is the offense they create compared to league average and the bottom is the offense they allow. So for example, Ryan Ellis generates 0.9% LESS offense compared to league average defensemen, and he allows 1.1% LESS offense compared to league average. Parayko on the other hand generates 3% MORE offense than league average and allows 8.5% LESS offense compared to league average.

Ryan Ellis:
sixfold-ellisry91-1618.png


Colton Parayko:
sixfold-parayco93-1618.png


Brett Pesce:
sixfold-pescebr94-1618.png


Josh Manson:
sixfold-mansojo91-1618.png


Matt Dumba:
sixfold-dumbama94-1618.png


Jared Spurgeon:
sixfold-spurgja89-1618.png


Rasmus Ristolainen:
sixfold-ristora94-1618.png

Interesting information. So Parayko or Pesce would be perfect. Where do you get this data?
 

Not My Tempo

Registered User
Feb 22, 2015
3,663
3,701
Toronto
Interesting information. So Parayko or Pesce would be perfect. Where do you get this data?
Model Description: Magnus

If you scroll down there's a link for every player in the league. Things to note:

1. It uses data from 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 only
2. It's uses shot generation. If you look at Marner's graphs, they're not good. Reading into the methodology, I think it can be explained by the fact that it's using unblocked shot data, and Marner is actually a really unique player in that he more often than not shoots for a tip rather than try and get pucks on net. It should be pretty reliable for the vast majority of players though.
 

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