Where would you rather the Montreal Canadiens finish this year? (Part 2)
- Thread starter Lshap
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Chili
En boca cerrada no entran moscas
- Jun 10, 2004
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Another top ten pick would be nice, but they should still get a decent prospect in the 11-20 range (which looks around the lowest they could end up). The season was already lost at this time last season, I think it`s better for the younger players to develop in more of a competitive/winning enviroment.
The blueline still needs upgrades so can`t see them believing they are close to taking a run this year, especially with the strength of the division. I could see them making another Reilly type trade if one becomes available.
The blueline still needs upgrades so can`t see them believing they are close to taking a run this year, especially with the strength of the division. I could see them making another Reilly type trade if one becomes available.
Gravity
Generational Poster
Hopefully Top 5. Draft another high end C prospect and load up at LD with all the remaining picks.
Would also sell high on Tatar and Petry at the TDL. Trade Benn for whatever you can get!
Would also sell high on Tatar and Petry at the TDL. Trade Benn for whatever you can get!
montreal
Go Habs Go
CHwest
Talent sets the floor, character sets the ceiling.
- May 24, 2011
- 3,490
- 4,568
NobleSix
High Tech Low-Life.
We're going to get so wrecked in the playoffs. Our shitty defense is going to get fully exposed, and Domi is going to be getting double coverage in the offensive zone. Can't see us even coming close to winning a 7 game series against Tampa, Toronto, or even a healthy Bruins team.
It's going to be embarrassing.
It's going to be embarrassing.
Milhouse40
Registered User
- Aug 19, 2010
- 22,100
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Best place to finish would be in the 1st wildcard spot....i'm less scared of Washington, Columbus or Pittsburgh....not that i think they are going to win against any of those teams either, but should be more entertaining. Against Tampa it's 4 quick games and a pretzel for every Habs players as a participation prize.
HabsWhiteKnightLOL
Registered User
and still lose in 5 games , draft another mccarron
because habs cant draft above top 15rinse repeat
hope we crash
We could finish 3rd in the division and avoid Tampa for one round, or finish in first WildCard position and avoid Tampa for two rounds or miss them completely if they lose to Toronto, Buffalo or Boston.
Is Poehling a better prospect than McCarron?and still lose in 5 games , draft another mccarron
rinse repeat
hope we crash
Yes. Better tools and a definite two-way, shutdown C, IMO. Can make surprising passes through traffic and, if he used it, has a more than decent shot. Will give you something even when he doesn't produce offensively. That's something you can't affirm regarding McCarron.
Agreed, so when #HabsWhiteKnightLOL lamented the possibility of drafting 18th or so and saying "oh crap, McCarron again" - he was not being fair. McCarron was drafted 25th and even at that spot our last pick was Poehling.
It's less about objective analysis and more about fear of getting screwed with a bad 1st round pick... again. We've seen this film before: Draft a kid in the 1st or 2nd round, whisper amongst ourselves that he's a hidden gem with top-6 potential, write him into our lineup in two years, await the second-coming, and then watch as he arcs across the sky ("Look at that nice pass!"), loses altitude ("Hmm... needs work on his skating") and crashes into obscurity ("welp... maybe nobody will claim him on waivers...").
I know, I know. Different draft positions. Different kids. Different outcomes. But if we've learned anything about the Habs' drafts the past decade, it's to quietly hope for the best and loudly expect the worst.
We already have one of the, if not the, youngest teams in the NHL. While I don't want to see MB go out and blow a bunch of picks on rentals (not that he has a history of that), I do want to see this team make the playoffs. I believe strongly that young players need to be rewarded for their hard work. They should see the results. This team deserves that reward. Add in that playoff experience would be huge for player development (in my opinion of course) and we have ourselves in a situation where I think it's significantly better for this team to make the playoffs even if it means a first round exit.
I'll take 4,5,6 playoff games and likely end up picking only 3 or 4 spots lower than had we missed the playoffs.
Only deadline moves I'd like to see are real hockey trades for some players with term remaining. Unless the price is too good to be true, or the team has intent to re-sign (ie. Petry), I'd rather not see UFA's coming in.
I'll take 4,5,6 playoff games and likely end up picking only 3 or 4 spots lower than had we missed the playoffs.
Only deadline moves I'd like to see are real hockey trades for some players with term remaining. Unless the price is too good to be true, or the team has intent to re-sign (ie. Petry), I'd rather not see UFA's coming in.
DAChampion
Registered User
- May 28, 2011
- 29,794
- 20,951
I would rather the Habs draft high. I favor delayed gratification. However, it really doesn't appear feasible at this point. The anti-tankers have been arguing that Bergevin tanking the team could kill the locker room atmosphere ... I think that they have a plausible point. I'm not sure if it's right, I'm not sure how long the effect would last, but it does look credible. The poisoned locker room atmosphere would not simply reduce the odds of making the playoffs in subsequent years, but it could also impact the integration and development of young players. I believe in development, and that means that a better atmosphere is one which rewards effort.
It's also not that easy to tank. The Eastern Conference is not in a state of parity. It looks pretty stratified actually. The non-playoff teams don't seem likely to threaten the Habs, and the Habs appear unlikely to threaten the other playoff teams.
Unless some GM in the conference makes a great or awful trade, the Habs might just split 8th and 9th place with the Islanders. If they finish 8th, I hope that they don't lose in 4. If they finish 9th, I hope that the lottery is kind to them.
The strategy being aggressively argued by @BaseballCoach, @Habs Icing , and others may not so much be the best available strategy, but rather the only available strategy. There is no plausible means for Bergevin to either genuinely tank or genuinely compete this year.
It's also not that easy to tank. The Eastern Conference is not in a state of parity. It looks pretty stratified actually. The non-playoff teams don't seem likely to threaten the Habs, and the Habs appear unlikely to threaten the other playoff teams.
Unless some GM in the conference makes a great or awful trade, the Habs might just split 8th and 9th place with the Islanders. If they finish 8th, I hope that they don't lose in 4. If they finish 9th, I hope that the lottery is kind to them.
The strategy being aggressively argued by @BaseballCoach, @Habs Icing , and others may not so much be the best available strategy, but rather the only available strategy. There is no plausible means for Bergevin to either genuinely tank or genuinely compete this year.
Milhouse40
Registered User
- Aug 19, 2010
- 22,100
- 24,678
and still lose in 5 games , draft another mccarron
rinse repeat
hope we crash
Yep, our top picks are really killing the league #NOT
Gravity
Generational Poster
HabsWhiteKnightLOL
Registered User
unless major upsets , i dont see poehling in a top6. abetter and younger danault
HabsWhiteKnightLOL
Registered User
indeed 2 were traded 1 plays less than danault
nothing good came from barginbin era
SPOILER ALERT! Heresy is about to be written.
While it is true that there is no plausible means for the Habs to genuinely tank when they have as many good players as they do, it is not true that there is no plausible means for the team to compete. For sure, there are those with a strong, stubborn belief that the team will be doomed if it finishes in the playoffs this year, and who can literally see no way for things to improve after a playoff appearance due to the sole reason that the next draft will see the team in a later slot by X ranks. These folks use Jehovah-Witness like resolve to get others to "see the light" that "more high end talent is needed" and that the only way to get it is to win the draft lottery. They RIGHTLY point out that previous lottery winners usually benefitted from their luck. They rightly point out that previous Cup winners all had a top-2 overall draft pick on their team, but ignore the fact that losing teams also have a top-2 draft pick on their team almost every time.
Recent developments are disappointing to some. The Habs have moved ahead of Boston and are only two points behind Buffalo and 3rd spot in the Atlantic Division.
While most fans of the team are really pleased with the current situation, and just hope that Carey is ok, others are actively wishing for this injury to derail the team, fast, so that the chances of getting Jack Hughes in the draft might rise to 10%. They overlook the odds that arise from past observation that a top pick has only a 50% chance of being good enough to put a team on his back, thus effectively reducing the odds of the lottery win to maybe 5%.
In their religious fervor that stresses the fundamentally "sinful" state of the team, a 5% chance is deemed "optimal".
It's complete nonsense. The Emperor has no clothes. Reality is much more complex and nuanced, and there are many, many different ways for GMs to compete and either improve their team, or preside over regression. Going to church and praying for salvation or a miracle is NOT the only nor best way to achieve success in life, nor is it so in a GM's work.
To take an example: trades. Our current IdiotGM says trades are "hard". Sure they are. If you make three trades and you have average success, you have a 12.5% chance of winning all three and dramatically changing the fortunes of your team. That may not be great odds, but they are better than the "miracle generatrional player" odds!
But you have a 50% chance of winning at least 2/3 and getting closer to your goals, and if you are a sharp GM, your odds may be even better than that. Competence increases your odds of winning a trade strategy whereas pretty much nothing increases your odds of winning a lottery and hoping the pick is a genuine godly player once your final standings are known. Thus the excessively loud clamour to lose games on purpose to improve the odds. It is the only recourse available to those with an exclusive draft-dependent strategy. To successfully improve the lottery odds, the brainwashed fantasy GM must actually hope that all of his other moves DON'T WORK. It's all or nothing, and it's justified with "nothing else has worked", a hindsight-driven catechism that has superficial appeal but is totally logically flawed.
Meanwhile, real life GMs work on trades, UFA signings, cap management, player development, waiver wire pickups, and personnel decisions. Real GMs, even the Leafs' GM in 2015-16, do not actively pursue losses for many reasons, only one of which is the effect it has on the psyche of the players on the team.
I've been that religiously inspired draft afficanado. I know of which I speak. The first step in realizing that the tank approach is illgogical is to admit that it may not be usable in the particular circumstances in which we live, but the religious fervor still initially leads this poster to downplay or ignore the viability of the many other real options that exist. Some of the awakening Champs will stop right there, but others, like I have, eventually see the fuller possibilities that are out there (none of which are guaranteed to work!). Then the hard analysis and prognostication begins, in complete uncertainty.
Nice to see some more people starting to see all the sides of the coins. Hope the awakening continues!
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I've never been a fan of tanking, especially with a mediocre GM at best. So I guess I'd like to see them make the playoffs to expose their weaknesses just like other posters have alluded to. Problem is there seems to be quite a few weaknesses on paper: haven't seen Drouin in the playoffs except with Tampa where he actually did excel with better players? Price just hasn't been much of a playoff performer through the years. Domi to me is too smallish for the playoffs. Weber has a great shot no doubt but he was exposed in the playoffs with Nashville. The rest of the D is predictably, unpredictable. Although if this team is in a wild card spot near the end then I do fear what the GM will do. Well, you kinda fear that no matter what. LOL
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