Where will the Jackets finish this season

[EspenK]

Okay time to commit to where you see the Jackets finishing the upcoming season.

I went with 2nd wild card. I think the Flyers beat them out for 3rd and I think Florida will eke out the 1st wild card.

Click to read more...

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I've said this before but since this is the appropriate thread...

Talent wise this team is near the top of the division. Especially so if SOME players who had bad seasons last year (Wennberg, Jenner, Savard, Dubinsky) take steps forward again. If we can get our young guys to take steps forward (Wennberg, Bjorkstrand, Dubois, Milano, Duclair) we will be in good shape.

However, the depth on defense concerns me.

The top 4 is fine, although who knows how Savard will play. Murray is not to be trusted with his injury history, and Nutivaara is still hit or miss. Z could potentially miss time (I know he is close to 100% and will resume contact this week) with his shoulder. Freak injuries happen (even Jones missed time last year) and our defense cannot afford it. I don't trust Clendening, Carlsson, Harrington, and Kukan other than to fill in for a few games, and at least one of those guys is going to be an NHL regular this year. If injuries hit, especially multiple, at defense we will be in huge trouble.

Then of course we have the whole Panarin/Bob drama. Yes, I think it matters. I don't necessarily think either one will "hold out" or not give it their all in order to protect themselves, but I think both players would rather move on than play here, and if adversity hits the team I wonder how much they will dive into fixing things rather than be looking for the door. Even though we have talent, these are our top two players and trading them/dealing with their potential attitudes could cast a dark cloud on the locker room.

I have us out of the playoffs. Barely.

Flyers got better (even though I still don't trust their goalies), Pittsburgh and Washington are locks. The Eastern conference is a bitch, with almost every team aside from Ottawa and Detroit improving in some way. IMO we didn't improve enough to keep up with whats around us. It's going to be close, just like it was last year when we barely got in.

If our young guys take significant steps forward and all the pieces align like they did in 16-17, I can easily see us making it. It's going to be very close either way and as usual when I am "pessimistic" I hope to be wrong.

 

[CBJx614]

Voted 2nd in the metro, some players take a step forward and it's gonna make a huge impact.

Having 3 lines producing will go a long way.

 

[213 Sentinel]

I'm officially down for barely missing, assuming all the same pieces perform the same way or a little less. I hope to be proven wrong, but having been present since the creation, my pessimism is hard-wired.

 

[Maylo]

So we finally landed on Dom's model. #4 in the league and #1 Metro with 101 points, with the roster as it is right now, however if they trade Bob and Panarin team is projected to have 87 points.

Combined, the duo(B&B) is projected to be worth roughly seven wins above replacement next season. Subtract that from the team’s projection, though, and they plummet all the way down to an average projection of 87 points – from fourth to 23rd in the league. Those two are beyond vital to this team’s success and the fact they both seem disgruntled is an alarming sign. Columbus may survive losing one. Losing both is a gut punch to a franchise that has been carefully building towards an apex they were just about to hit.

2018-19 NHL Season Preview: Columbus Blue Jackets

 

[CBJWerenski8]

So we finally landed on Dom's model. #4 in the league and #1 Metro with 101 points, with the roster as it is right now, however if they trade Bob and Panarin team is projected to have 87 points.



2018-19 NHL Season Preview: Columbus Blue Jackets

I find it interesting that his model has us as being the 3rd most "top heavy" team in the league. It makes sense, thinking about how much we struggled last year, but I really thought our depth was better at F.

 

[Maylo]

I find it interesting that his model has us as being the 3rd most "top heavy" team in the league. It makes sense, thinking about how much we struggled last year, but I really thought our depth was better at F.

He also adressed being top heavy there. I thik we saw that during the season sometimes and in PO since game 4.

However, with all of it concentrated to one line and one pair, it makes Columbus an easy team to gameplan against relative to other top teams. Stop Panarin and the top pair and you’re basically set – if you can solve Bobrovsky in net of course. All that will be easier said than done, though, as that top group is seriously good and only getting better with the emergence of Dubois up front along with Jones and Werenski on defence.

Also this is for our resident "Bob fans".

Bobrovsky is even more important as Columbus’ best days have come when he’s in Vezina-Trophy form (and it was a bit of a farce he wasn’t a finalist last season). ....He’s first when quality is considered and it’s there where things aren’t really close. His actual save percentage is nearly two percentage points better than expected and the next best starter is John Gibson at 1.6 per cent (Philipp Grubauer is at 1.9, but has only played 59 games). There are only four other starters even above one per cent: Raanta, Jonathan Quick, Corey Crawford and Roberto Luongo. Bobrovsky really has been in a league of his own and that’s worth 3.7 projected wins, the second highest mark among goalies.

 

[thebus88]

Expected?

1.6?? 1.9?? 3.7??



"OK, Bye"- Jarmo Kekalainen

 

[major major]

I've said this before but since this is the appropriate thread...

Talent wise this team is near the top of the division. Especially so if SOME players who had bad seasons last year (Wennberg, Jenner, Savard, Dubinsky) take steps forward again. If we can get our young guys to take steps forward (Wennberg, Bjorkstrand, Dubois, Milano, Duclair) we will be in good shape.

However, the depth on defense concerns me.

The top 4 is fine, although who knows how Savard will play. Murray is not to be trusted with his injury history, and Nutivaara is still hit or miss.

Defensive depth is not so hard to fix. What did Cole cost? A third round pick? And Nutivaara has succeeded at almost every task he's been given. I don't see the "miss" or the grounds for pessimism.

The fundamentals are in your first paragraph. The scoring should be up dramatically.

 

[major major]

Expected?

1.6?? 1.9?? 3.7??



"OK, Bye"- Jarmo Kekalainen

Jarmo knows what those things are, bus. He's brought in a lot of stats folks into the team.

 

[EDM]

The Athletic has a very good statistical analysis of the CBJ that puts them in the Top Five. But it notes that we are very heavily reliant upon Bread and Bob and that is very dangerous considering their contract situations. It also notes that our top line is one of the most dangerous in the entire NHL ( due to Bread) but that our second and third lines are very mediocre further underscoring the fragility of the Bread situation.

 

[EDM]

By the way, because we are so top heavy, I think Jarmo's off-season performance was incredibly bad. Borderline inept. Now if Wennberg becomes the player he has never actually been maybe we look a little better.

 

[Viqsi]

I frankly think the only way we end up missing the playoffs is if we end up losing two of Bob/Bread/Jones/Z to extended injury or trade or whatnot.

 

[major major]

I have to give kudos to Dom here. He's so far ahead of the other public advanced stats guys. He's digging into minute details like the with you/ without you of Foligno on the PP. Dubinsky dragging down Jenner, Foligno dragging down the PP, etc.. This guy did his homework, and then did ours.

By the way, because we are so top heavy, I think Jarmo's off-season performance was incredibly bad. Borderline inept. Now if Wennberg becomes the player he has never actually been maybe we look a little better.

To be fair to Jarmo here - the middle six looks bad in Dom's model partly because he has Dubinsky slated as 3C. If Dubinsky is as bad as the model expects, he won't be the 3C, because Jarmo got Riley Nash. There's also Anthony Duclair and Sonny Milano chomping on the bit in case Jenner, Anderson, Foligno, or Bjorkstrand underperform. I don't expect the second line to be above average for a second line (i.e. among the top 45 lines in quality), but the middle-six as a whole should be strong because there's so many potential scorers competing for ice time.

 

[EDM]

I agree that Duclair and Sonny could make a difference. But still, making a conscious decision to enter the season with a second line of Bjork, Pooh and Fligs is cring-worthy.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Another point I forgot to mention was the special teams. We subtracted a lot on our already awful PK, and only added Riley Nash from the outside to help the PK. I read a change of philosophy happened, which was needed, but the personnel is largely the same off an an awful group. I think the PP can only get better after being historically awful last year, but how much better?

Defensive depth is not so hard to fix. What did Cole cost? A third round pick? And Nutivaara has succeeded at almost every task he's been given. I don't see the "miss" or the grounds for pessimism.

The fundamentals are in your first paragraph. The scoring should be up dramatically.

Cole was acquired at the deadline. IIRC there weren't many trades last year during the season. It's not as easy as throwing a draft pick to a team.

 

[major major]

Another point I forgot to mention was the special teams. We subtracted a lot on our already awful PK, and only added Riley Nash from the outside to help the PK. I read a change of philosophy happened, which was needed, but the personnel is largely the same off an an awful group.

Pick one complaint.

Cole was acquired at the deadline. IIRC there weren't many trades last year during the season. It's not as easy as throwing a draft pick to a team.

Yes it would be somewhat more difficult - but if the third pair is anything close to being a problem that could affect our ability to make the playoffs, you can rest assured the problem will be fixed.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Pick one complaint.



Yes it would be somewhat more difficult - but if the third pair is anything close to being a problem that could affect our ability to make the playoffs, you can rest assured the problem will be fixed.

We''ll see. It's not that easy.

The PK group saw a loss of Shaw, Calvert, Cole, and Letestu. Gained Nash. Werenski, Nuti, and others will be asked to step in to PK roles they've not played much before. So that's my thinking behind "personnel is largely the same but also subtracted from."

 

[Hello Johnny]

I don't think the personnel was bad. That system was absolutely non-existent. The players were told to sit back in that small box. As Foligno said earlier this week: a powerplay hates an aggressive PK. Our PK system killed us, and it seems that will be changing. I'll reserve judgement until then.

 

[major major]

I don't think the personnel was bad. That system was absolutely non-existent. The players were told to sit back in that small box. As Foligno said earlier this week: a powerplay hates an aggressive PK. Our PK system killed us, and it seems that will be changing. I'll reserve judgement until then.

Aggressive PK's can be bad too - IIRC the club did try to be aggressive on the PK at times and it led to breakdowns.

I expect them to be better, but that's just regressing to the mean. A great PK team is usually a one-season thing, as is a bad PK team. It's always up and down.

 

[JacketsDavid]

I think the talent is there, just I guess we will be in the general mix for first half of season, then be forced to trade Panarin (just can't afford to lose him for nothing) then team falters just enough to miss playoffs.
Bob gets resigned (to a contract I won't like) and I still suspect Rick Nash could be brought back.

 

[MoeBartoli]

I ended up voting 2nd wild card. I actually considered 3rd in the Metro, but just too many things would have to fall into line - health, bounce-back years, trade scenarios, coaching - which I deemed unlikely. Thus I have us battling til the end, doing just enough to eke out the final PO spot.

 

[Cyclones Rock]

Too many uncertainties with the top guns to predict a good season. Borderline playoff team. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see the franchise record 2 year playoff qualification streak bite the dust.

Panarin, Bob, Z and Jones are a great core, but we probably won't have that core all year. Bob and Panarin are potentially highly volatile situations.....no one can predict with any confidence how their seasons will play out.

The CBJ barely made the playoffs last season. There's no guarantee that even if Bob and Panarin are here all year in perfect harmony that they'll make the playoffs. Bob's performance could easily slip from the past 2 seasons.

Dubinsky is shot. Foligno and Jenner are 15 goal plugs. Milano may not even be an NHLer. Bjorkstrand has a great shot/release, but has not demonstrated much else to date. Wennberg certainly doesn't inspire confidence based on last season. PLD played well, but no doubt greatly benefited from playing with Panarin. Duclair...who knows? The new Nash isn't anything to hang one's hat on, imo.

Atkinson should probably rebound and score 30. I think Anderson could score 25-what's not to like about his speed and size? I don't know much about the draft picks/organizational depth players who might have an impact. Maybe someone among that group can provide a big spark. On the whole, if one eliminates Panarin, it's a very average forward gourp.

Torts is approaching his shelf life expiration date. So naturally he was signed for 2 more years. Larsen will still be running the PP unit. I don't see this coaching staff as being to elevate the players anything above last season's performance.

With the improvement of the Flyers, Panthers and Buffalo, I'll guess that the boys will be on the outside looking in come season's end. Unless Murray can play in 70+ games. Then the President's Trophy will be a mortal lock.

 

[Doug19]

I voted win the metro, this is the best team in the metro as long as we don't trade Panarin and bob mid season.

 

[thebus88]

We''ll see. It's not that easy.

The PK group saw a loss of Shaw, Calvert, Cole, and Letestu. Gained Nash. Werenski, Nuti, and others will be asked to step in to PK roles they've not played much before. So that's my thinking behind "personnel is largely the same but also subtracted from."

Ya, its not that easy to claim they suck, when they don't. You don't think the team is good, I/we get it. But, why force it? You just throw everything out there until something sticks, highlighted there, as major called you out on contradicting yourself in a matter of a couple sentences and during the same "point" being made.

Calvert is a big loss. Probably the only actual loss that actually hurts the team on the PK. Cole can be brought up, but he was around for only 30% of a season. Letestu, along with also being around only a little bit, wasn't much of the same player last year, and quite frankly I think guys like Sedlak and Nash MORE than make up for the "loss" of him. Another guy that was injured a lot, and probably had his "penalty killing" affected along the way, is Atkinson. Is he an "addition"? And Johnson, who you didn't name, is another guy I think the team will NOT miss on the PK.