Where is Rasmus Dahlin's ceiling?

[geniusgoalie]

I've seen the term 'generational' thrown around quite a bit when describing Dahlin's ceiling. The problem is that both 'generational' and 'ceiling' are terms that can have very different meanings from person-to-person. So for the sake of this poll let's say that a prospect's ceiling is the highest level that is plausibly attainable for them based on their current skill and the trajectory of their development, if everything goes right and there are no major anomalous changes. For example, in 2015 Eichel's ceiling wasn't Gretzky-level but McDavid's was- it isn't EXPECTED that McDavid will reach that level, but it certainly seems (and seemed) within the realm of possibility. Jack Eichel getting there wasn't inconceivable but it would've been a big surprise, so Eichel's ceiling would be something like Ovechkin-level.

With this definition in mind, where is Rasmus Dahlin's ceiling? Are his skills and intangibles promising enough that it wouldn't be surprising for him to reach the truly highest level? Or does he have limitations that put a realistic cap on him somewhere lower?

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[93LEAFS]

I find ceiling a pretty stupid term, as players over and underachieve their perceived ceilings and floors all the time.

I can't see him passing Orr even if everything goes perfect. Defenders just don't put up points like that anymore. Maybe he can catch Bourque and Doug Harvey.

I'd add. I think there is a massive gap between Lidstrom and Orr. They shouldn't be grouped togeather. Orr won the Hart multiple times. Lidstrom wasn't a top 3 finisher once.

 

[Laineux]

I do not think that it's even humanly possible to have the kind of skill gap over peers anymore as Orr did in his time.

Dahlin could challenge Lidström for the best Swedish d-man ever if all goes well. Not sure what to vote.

 

[EichHart]

From Bob:

To no one’s surprise, Dahlin sits atop TSN’s Final Draft Rankings, a unanimous choice as he has been all season long. Ten of 10 NHL scouts surveyed by TSN have the 6-foot-3, 185-pound blueliner in a class all by himself.

We can expect the Dahlin hype train to hit top speed this week as he sets out on a career that will determine where he fits in the pantheon of modern-day elite Swedish defencemen.

He’s not quite as tall as Tampa’s Victor Hedman but does a lot of the same things on both sides of the puck as the Norris Trophy candidate. He’s far bigger than Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson but flashes the same dynamic skill and breathtaking offence. He has a long, long way to go to earn favourable comparisons to arguably the greatest Swedish defenceman ever - Nicklas Lidstrom - but Dahlin already demonstrates much of the same ease and three-zone impact as the Hall of Famer.

Dahlin is just commencing his journey to forge his own identity, and there’s no telling for sure what he will make of it, but this is indisputable — at the same age, entering the draft, none of Lidstrom, Hedman or Karlsson was comparable to where Dahlin’s game is at.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Ceiling? 1st OV picks scoff at such notions.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

10 ft above his floor

 

[Haatley]

Paul Coffee? LMAO

 

[amnesiac]

hes had the most hype for a Dman since Denis Potvin.... so better than Karlsson and CoffeY

 

[Tim Vezina Thomas]

I think a realistic expectation is a #1 defenseman that plays in all situations.

I think an attainable but not necessarily "realistic" expectation is someone like Doughty. Superstar and elite talent. Not to say he doesn't have a great chance of getting there, but even Drew Doughty had to prove it before he was Drew Doughty.

 

[ijuka]

Not Orr.

But if we talk ceiling, surely if all goes well he could be the best D of the era.

 

[Echo Roku]

Sweden. Probably. Later, Buffalo NY

 

[COHawk]

Voted greatest defensemen of a period. He could go down as ONE of the all time greats, but he would have to play like a combination of Doughty/Ovechkin/Crosby to be considered THE greatest of all time.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

What’s his ceiling? I guess literally taken he could be the greatest ever. What’s a reasonable projection for his career? I don’t think it’s reasonable to project anyone as the greatest ever.

 

[Brock Radunske]

Realistic Ceiling: Greatest defenseman of a given period, or contender for (Karlsson, Coffee)
Likely Ends Up: Top defenseman of a franchise over a substantial period (Hedman, Chara)

 

[tony d]

Option 2 for me. Think this kid's going to be the real deal, best defenseman in the draft since Hedman in 2009 IMO.

 

[geniusgoalie]

Thanks for all of the input guys. I'm wishing I would've separated the top pair into Orr by himself, and then maybe Lidstrom and Bourque above Karlsson and Coffee. I guess at the elite levels it's hard to differentiate into tiers of talent (after Bobby Orr, all by himself). As a Sabres fan, I'd like to think that the Lidstrom/Bourque level is the best answer to this question, but the input has given me a better idea of where the community thinks he's at.

It may sound stupid but I never really realized the separation between Orr and his contemporaries. Even though Gretzky's period of dominance was also before I was born, enough video abounds that I've watched enough of him play to see what put him in a class of his own. Orr's era is less well-preserved (or at least less easily accessible) and I never really grasped how great he was. I have to rely on you old bastards to tell me

 

[Howboutthempanthers]

He has the puck handling skills of a forward back on defense, and elite offensive instincts. Now defensively is where I don't know what his projections are, so I can't say what type of all around game he potentially has. But, potentially I would say offensively he has a Karlsson type of ceiling.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Chara certainly; and Hedman probably belong in category 2 not category 3. Hell Chara may have been the most valuable skater in the league for a while.

 

[DanM]

Oh boy.... Let the kid actually develop first, we literally have no idea how this Dman will end up, and he certainly won't be helped by unhealthy amounts of expectations.

If he becomes Hedman or Doughty, that is a win, Lidstrom, Orr, Potvin, Bourque, Coffey, Harvey.... lets give that a break lol

 

[Sundinisagod]

I think his upside is to be the 2nd goat.

 

[Ace of Hades]

Hedman level importance.

 

[Brobust]

He'll be in the same league as Provorov/Werenski/McAvoy. People who think he's going to separate himself from that group have their expectations a bit too high.

 

[DanM]

He'll be in the same league as Provorov/Werenski/McAvoy. People who think he's going to separate himself from that group have their expectations a bit too high.

I think he will come in at that level, but I see him close to a Hedman type Dman, people seem to forget how great the great ones are, even Doughty, just an amazing Dman.

Even Lidstrom was not Lidstrom for a while

 

[justafan22]

In between Karlsson and Hedman if he reaches his potential. Should at least be a top 5 dman every single year that he's healthy as soon as he reaches his prime at 23-27.

 

[Spirit of 67]

Opted for #3.

I see him as, roughly, a Hedman. A bit more offensive and a bit less defensive. But right in there.
He will win a Norris.