Where does Clayton Kershaw rank among all-time pitchers?

[Tyrus Cobb]

Top 30 is way too low. Is there a better pitcher to enter the league in the past 25 years?

The game has been around over 130 years.

 

[Cas]

Top 30 is way too low. Is there a better pitcher to enter the league in the past 25 years?

The best contender is Verlander, followed by Greinke and Scherzer. It's not clear that any of them are better than Kershaw.

However, great pitching seems to come in clumps. Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, and Martinez; Seaver, Carlton, Niekro, Perry, Blyleven, Ryan, Jenkins, and Palmer; Young, Nichols, and Rusie; Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander. At the same time you have gaps of relatively weaker pitching greats - Grove, Hubbell, and not a lot else between the wars; Feller didn't have a lot of strong competition; Spahn, Roberts, and Ford is kind of weak; the period between the 300 game winners of the 70's and the emergence of Clemens, Maddux, and Randy Johnson was basically filled by Jack Morris and Dave Stieb.

Kershaw is almost certainly Top 30, but reaching the Top Ten or Twenty is tough. He ranks #39 in career WAR right now, and that's ignoring a few pitchers who were denied the chance to play major league baseball during their primes (Satchel Paige, Smokey Joe Williams, Bullet Joe Rogan, Cannonball Dick Redding, and Jose Mendez all have Top 30 cases, and I have no idea what to do with Martin Dihigo).

Now, career WAR is not the be-all and end-all - I certainly wouldn't take Vic Willis or Rick Reuschel before Clayton Kershaw. On the other hand, I wouldn't clearly take Clayton Kershaw ahead of Bob Feller. You have to account for peak value, quality of competition (which includes the timeline effect), and postseason performance, at a minimum.

I have a system that tries to balance career performance against peak and prime performance, and account for interruptions in careers outside of the control of the player (like military service or shortened seasons, but not injuries). I haven't figured out how to incorporate playoff performance quantitatively and I don't timeline on it, but right now I have Kershaw at #23, narrowly behind Curt Schilling and Gaylord Perry. Here's my top 30:

Walter Johnson, Roger Clemens, Cy Young, Pete Alexander, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, Satchel Paige, Christy Mathewson, Kid Nichols, Smokey Joe Williams, Bob Gibson, Bob Feller, Bullet Joe Rogan, Steve Carlton, John Clarkson, Warren Spahn, Robin Roberts, Curt Schilling, Gaylord Perry, Clayton Kershaw, Ed Walsh, Max Scherzer, Bert Blyleven, Zack Greinke, Al Spalding, Fergie Jenkins, Cannonball Dick Redding.

It's not by any means a conclusive statement, but I don't think anyone not on this list would clearly rank ahead of Kershaw (Carl Hubbell and Sandy Koufax are probably the most commonly cited great pitchers who don't make my top 30 - Hal Newhouser is technically #30 on my list but I realized I haven't given him a war demerit yet). I also don't know how many players ahead of Kershaw aren't clearly greater than he has been so far - Clarkson if you discount 1880's pitchers, maybe Schilling (though he should make up some ground through his postseason performances), Roberts and Perry. I'm not sure I could justifiably argue that Kershaw has been better than Steve Carlton or Warren Spahn - maybe in five years.

 

[Tyrus Cobb]

The best contender is Verlander, followed by Greinke and Scherzer. It's not clear that any of them are better than Kershaw.

However, great pitching seems to come in clumps. Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, and Martinez; Seaver, Carlton, Niekro, Perry, Blyleven, Ryan, Jenkins, and Palmer; Young, Nichols, and Rusie; Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander. At the same time you have gaps of relatively weaker pitching greats - Grove, Hubbell, and not a lot else between the wars; Feller didn't have a lot of strong competition; Spahn, Roberts, and Ford is kind of weak; the period between the 300 game winners of the 70's and the emergence of Clemens, Maddux, and Randy Johnson was basically filled by Jack Morris and Dave Stieb.

Kershaw is almost certainly Top 30, but reaching the Top Ten or Twenty is tough. He ranks #39 in career WAR right now, and that's ignoring a few pitchers who were denied the chance to play major league baseball during their primes (Satchel Paige, Smokey Joe Williams, Bullet Joe Rogan, Cannonball Dick Redding, and Jose Mendez all have Top 30 cases, and I have no idea what to do with Martin Dihigo).

Now, career WAR is not the be-all and end-all - I certainly wouldn't take Vic Willis or Rick Reuschel before Clayton Kershaw. On the other hand, I wouldn't clearly take Clayton Kershaw ahead of Bob Feller. You have to account for peak value, quality of competition (which includes the timeline effect), and postseason performance, at a minimum.

I have a system that tries to balance career performance against peak and prime performance, and account for interruptions in careers outside of the control of the player (like military service or shortened seasons, but not injuries). I haven't figured out how to incorporate playoff performance quantitatively and I don't timeline on it, but right now I have Kershaw at #23, narrowly behind Curt Schilling and Gaylord Perry. Here's my top 30:

Walter Johnson, Roger Clemens, Cy Young, Pete Alexander, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, Satchel Paige, Christy Mathewson, Kid Nichols, Smokey Joe Williams, Bob Gibson, Bob Feller, Bullet Joe Rogan, Steve Carlton, John Clarkson, Warren Spahn, Robin Roberts, Curt Schilling, Gaylord Perry, Clayton Kershaw, Ed Walsh, Max Scherzer, Bert Blyleven, Zack Greinke, Al Spalding, Fergie Jenkins, Cannonball Dick Redding.

It's not by any means a conclusive statement, but I don't think anyone not on this list would clearly rank ahead of Kershaw (Carl Hubbell and Sandy Koufax are probably the most commonly cited great pitchers who don't make my top 30 - Hal Newhouser is technically #30 on my list but I realized I haven't given him a war demerit yet). I also don't know how many players ahead of Kershaw aren't clearly greater than he has been so far - Clarkson if you discount 1880's pitchers, maybe Schilling (though he should make up some ground through his postseason performances), Roberts and Perry. I'm not sure I could justifiably argue that Kershaw has been better than Steve Carlton or Warren Spahn - maybe in five years.

Damn - that is a good post. Well done. You know your baseball

 

[Hockeyholic]

Pitchers I have firmly ahead of him (in no order):

Young
Spahn
Walter Johnson
Gibson
Koufax
Clemens
Maddux
Pedro
Randy Johnson
Rivera
Nolan Ryan

So call it anywhere from 12th to 17th

Albeit the greatest ever, he was still a closer. Meaning he pitched two innings max. Kershaw was a starting pitcher.

And whenever I think of Rivera, I think about him throwing away the 01 WS. And his blown save in 04 against Boston. Which started the reverse sweep.

Overrated.

 

[Tyrus Cobb]

Lol Rivera is no where close to being the greatest pitcher ever.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

The best contender is Verlander, followed by Greinke and Scherzer. It's not clear that any of them are better than Kershaw.

However, great pitching seems to come in clumps. Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, and Martinez; Seaver, Carlton, Niekro, Perry, Blyleven, Ryan, Jenkins, and Palmer; Young, Nichols, and Rusie; Walter Johnson and Pete Alexander. At the same time you have gaps of relatively weaker pitching greats - Grove, Hubbell, and not a lot else between the wars; Feller didn't have a lot of strong competition; Spahn, Roberts, and Ford is kind of weak; the period between the 300 game winners of the 70's and the emergence of Clemens, Maddux, and Randy Johnson was basically filled by Jack Morris and Dave Stieb.

Kershaw is almost certainly Top 30, but reaching the Top Ten or Twenty is tough. He ranks #39 in career WAR right now, and that's ignoring a few pitchers who were denied the chance to play major league baseball during their primes (Satchel Paige, Smokey Joe Williams, Bullet Joe Rogan, Cannonball Dick Redding, and Jose Mendez all have Top 30 cases, and I have no idea what to do with Martin Dihigo).

Now, career WAR is not the be-all and end-all - I certainly wouldn't take Vic Willis or Rick Reuschel before Clayton Kershaw. On the other hand, I wouldn't clearly take Clayton Kershaw ahead of Bob Feller. You have to account for peak value, quality of competition (which includes the timeline effect), and postseason performance, at a minimum.

I have a system that tries to balance career performance against peak and prime performance, and account for interruptions in careers outside of the control of the player (like military service or shortened seasons, but not injuries). I haven't figured out how to incorporate playoff performance quantitatively and I don't timeline on it, but right now I have Kershaw at #23, narrowly behind Curt Schilling and Gaylord Perry. Here's my top 30:

Walter Johnson, Roger Clemens, Cy Young, Pete Alexander, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, Satchel Paige, Christy Mathewson, Kid Nichols, Smokey Joe Williams, Bob Gibson, Bob Feller, Bullet Joe Rogan, Steve Carlton, John Clarkson, Warren Spahn, Robin Roberts, Curt Schilling, Gaylord Perry, Clayton Kershaw, Ed Walsh, Max Scherzer, Bert Blyleven, Zack Greinke, Al Spalding, Fergie Jenkins, Cannonball Dick Redding.

It's not by any means a conclusive statement, but I don't think anyone not on this list would clearly rank ahead of Kershaw (Carl Hubbell and Sandy Koufax are probably the most commonly cited great pitchers who don't make my top 30 - Hal Newhouser is technically #30 on my list but I realized I haven't given him a war demerit yet). I also don't know how many players ahead of Kershaw aren't clearly greater than he has been so far - Clarkson if you discount 1880's pitchers, maybe Schilling (though he should make up some ground through his postseason performances), Roberts and Perry. I'm not sure I could justifiably argue that Kershaw has been better than Steve Carlton or Warren Spahn - maybe in five years.

Do you understand how WAR is calculated? You can't use WAR to compare a starting pitcher in today's game to guys who had 300+ IP in a season.

Career WAR is maybe the worst place to start your list.

 

[Cas]

Do you understand how WAR is calculated? You can't use WAR to compare a starting pitcher in today's game to guys who had 300+ IP in a season.

Career WAR is maybe the worst place to start your list.

I know how WAR is calculated very well. Career WAR is actually a perfectly reasonable place to start your list, as the players near the top are pretty much all greats - it's a crummy place to end your list.

I also added in an adjustment factor to account for starting pitcher usage throughout baseball history that tends to adjust earlier pitchers downwards and more recent pitchers upwards (its not linear because pitchers in the 60's and 70's pitched more innings per season than pitchers of the 40's and 50's). The exact calculation is to take the top n number of innings pitched totals in the league that season, where n is the number of teams in the league, and divide the sum by the total number of innings pitched that season - the theory being that all-time great pitchers will, on average, be staff ace quality pitchers and so I'm concerned only with the usage patterns of staff aces (some teams have two or more all-time great, ace-quality pitchers, but because other teams won't have any, I figure it washes out). Kershaw is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this out of my data set, as top pitchers in his leagues have pitched an average of 14.4% of league innings, compared to a rough historic average of 19% (the league factor is divided by 19%, so lower factors increase pitcher value).

This factor is also mollified by averaging raw totals by my adjusted totals and taking the mean. In effect, this means that players get half credit for missing seasons due to military service, shortened seasons, or being trapped in the minor leagues (the biggest beneficiary of the latter is Lefty Grove, and affects very few players because I only give credit after a player has at least one full season of very good performance in the highest available minor leagues, and very few great players were ever trapped in the minor leagues for more than a season); half credit for the starting pitcher adjustment factor; half demerit for playing through a wartime season (Hal Newhouser) or a weak major league (Three Finger Brown and Eddie Plank in the Federal League; Tony Mullane or Silver King in the American Association), and any other adjustments I might make. Note that I don't make these adjustments for players who were trapped by segregation, because their MLEs are already heavily regressed.

 

[Fantomas]

Can you please elaborate on this?

If anyone is overrated to common baseball fans it's Nolan Ryan.

To answer the OP. I rank him in my top 30. No where near the top 15 at this point.

Nolan Ryan is pretty overrated too. But Feller was pretty much finished as an ace in his late 20s.

 

[Cas]

Nolan Ryan is pretty overrated too. But Feller was pretty much finished as an ace in his late 20s.

He was, but he started as an ace at 19 - he just peaked very early, so his peak ending at 28 isn't really that unusual. He did pack in four really tremendous seasons during that span and missed almost four years to war (and the partial season he had in 1945 was pretty outstanding).

I don't much care how old a player was when they peaked - merely how big and how long that peak was. Feller's peak is pretty extraordinary.

 

[Fantomas]

He was, but he started as an ace at 19 - he just peaked very early, so his peak ending at 28 isn't really that unusual. He did pack in four really tremendous seasons during that span and missed almost four years to war (and the partial season he had in 1945 was pretty outstanding).

I don't much care how old a player was when they peaked - merely how big and how long that peak was. Feller's peak is pretty extraordinary.

I'm not saying that Feller was bad. I just don't think he belongs with that given group of players.