Speculation: Where do you think that Crosby ends up on the career PPG list?

Discussion in 'Pittsburgh Penguins' started by Jaded-Fan, Oct 28, 2013.

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  1. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    For his career Crosby is currently averaging 1.42 points per game. (683 points in 481 games http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/3114/sidney-crosby ).

    Only 3 players in history have a higher PPG average in ANY era:

    Gretzky, Mario and Bossy

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/points_per_game_career.html

    Over the last three years, all shortened by injury admittedly, but still he has raised his game significantly, and averaged the following:

    2010-11: Crosby 1.61 PPG

    2011-12: Crosby 1.68 PPG

    20012-13: Crosby 1.56 PPG

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/statistics/pl...sort/avgPoints

    So the question is, when he eventually hangs them up where on this list do you think that he will end up?

    Of course the question requires several elements of speculation, including how long he plays. Jagr for instance has lowered his PPG by resuming his career well past his prime.

    But it is an interesting thing to speculate and guess at, and if he can maintain this position on the list he certainly will having something to point to in the debates of where he belongs on the all time lists.
     
  2. UnrealMachine

    UnrealMachine Registered User

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    I think he'll ultimately finish 4th. I see him passing Bossy sometime next year and staying at #3 for a time period that exceeds Bossy's career number of games. Bossy's career ended early though, so he practically played in his prime years for his entire career and only played a limited number of games in his "declining" phase. Additionally his last season was 86-87 when there were an average of 3+ more goals scored per game than today's era. If Crosby plays into his 40's and the league scoring rate remains static, it will be very difficult to not have some "declining" years drag down his career average. 1.5 PPG is almost impossible to maintain in this era and very few players have achieved that over the course of single season since the early 90's.

    That being said, if you normalize the scoring of each player to that of the league goal scoring average during their respective era, Crosby will be closer to the number 1 player in that category, Lemieux.
     
  3. Shrimper

    Shrimper Trick or ruddy treat

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    He's played poorly in the last three games. Hope he gets back in the groove soon. Reckon around 1.56-1.65.
     
  4. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    I was asking where he ends up for his career not this year.
     
  5. dr robbie

    dr robbie Let's Go Pens!

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    This is his prime and his numbers are almost surely to drop as his career goes on (obviously, assuming no career ending injury). That said, I still hope he ends up somewhere in the top 10 list. I think we will probably see him in the 1.25-1.30 range when all is said and done. If things work out, he plays killer for a bit, and only a little drop off near the end, maybe he'll end in the 3rd-4th range with around 1.5.
     
  6. Darth Vitale

    Darth Vitale Dark Matter

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    Probably right where he is now, maybe a little lower down.. 5th or 6th. He won't go lower than 6th.
     
  7. Don'tcry4mejanhrdina

    Don'tcry4mejanhrdina Registered User

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    I doubt it. Crosby might play into his 40's. Who's to say his offense remains at it's current level for that long? Bossy's and Mario's (before coming out of retirement) PPG average was helped by the fact that they retired early.
     
  8. Darth Vitale

    Darth Vitale Dark Matter

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    If Crosby stays healthy and plays into his late 30s, he has the type of game (where many of his shots are high percentage shots) that I can see him staying pretty close to his current level. OTOH I can't see Malkin doing that into his 30s (were he to stick around his 1.5PPG potential most seasons) because he is not an in-close type shooter. Malkin's PPG will definitely decline as he gets into his mid- to upper-30s.
     
  9. Don'tcry4mejanhrdina

    Don'tcry4mejanhrdina Registered User

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    I could see him becoming like Steve Yzerman actually, sacrificing offense for the sake of his defensive game to help the team win. Especially if he wins the next few Art Ross trophies while going nowhere in the playoffs.
     
  10. Darth Vitale

    Darth Vitale Dark Matter

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    Certainly possible.
     
  11. JWells16

    JWells16 Registered User

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    It's so tough to predict because we have no idea how long he'll play. Also, it could be lower due to the fact that he's missed so many games in his prime.

    To guess, I'll say around 1.3 PPG, which would be good for 6th.
     
  12. UnrealMachine

    UnrealMachine Registered User

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    Crosby's numbers are skewed low because of his games missed and the shortened season. Over the last 3 seasons he has averaged 1.61 points per game, but only played 99 out of a potential 246 games (yes, I realize that there were only 48 games last season).
     
  13. Ragamuffin Gunner

    Ragamuffin Gunner Lost in the Flood

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    It's impossible to say. It depends on how healthy he is and who he has to play with.
     
  14. AquaticBirdman

    AquaticBirdman Registered User

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    Second assist Sidney will surely finish first of course...
     
  15. spiny norman

    spiny norman Administrator

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    I can see Crosby finishing 6th in career PPG.
     
  16. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    As I said in my OP, one of the predictions you need to make is how long that Crosby plays. If he plays into his late 70's like Jagr is his PPG would of course suffer some.

    Personally I do not see Crosby playing far past his mid 30's. He is extremely driven and despite what some say elsewhere at HF, his skills do compare to previous greats. He has that consistent greatness than people will look back on. Like with Michael Jordan, if you needed a title winning basket everyone knew that the shot was going to him and everyone knew that he would deliver. Those type of players seldom keep playing long enough to see themselves look average or below. Jagr is the exception. Most hang them up rather than play at that level.

    As the great Ty Cobb once said (well it was a movie quote but I do think that he actually said it):

    Louis Prima: With all the great players playing ball right now, how well do you think you would do against today's pitchers?

    Ty Cobb: Well, I figure against today's pitchers I'd only probably hit about .290

    Louis Prima: .290? Well that's amazing, because you batted over .400 a... a whole bunch of times. Now tell us all, we'd all like to know, why do you think you'd only hit .290?

    Ty Cobb: Well, I'm 72 ****ing years old you ignorant son of a *****.
     
  17. Til the End of Time

    Til the End of Time Registered User

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    a lot of this depends on pascal dupuis and his health going forward...
     
  18. Don'tcry4mejanhrdina

    Don'tcry4mejanhrdina Registered User

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    Haha well at least you're able to poke fun of yourself. We all know you're a Crosby fanboy. We all want him to win multiple art Ross trophies. Just not at the expense of somebody else's health lol.

    It's way too early to be able to project something like career ppg average.
     
  19. FDBluth

    FDBluth Registered User

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    Aren't you in medical school or something? Do you have some connections that could potentially slip something into a water bottle?
     
  20. mpp9

    mpp9 Registered User

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    Depends how long Sid plays. I think he could keep up his 1.6+ ppg for another 5 years easy. But from there, he'll probably need a better supporting cast to keep that up.
     
  21. BrunoPuntzJones

    BrunoPuntzJones Biscuit Scorer

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    Is he? :laugh:, damn. It's like a librarian who wants to burn books.
     
  22. Ugene Malkin

    Ugene Malkin Registered User

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    At this point with how many games he has missed I could care less about this stuff. As long as he can bring in another cup or two the PPG, goals/assists just are not interesting enough for me considering that lost time. It's not like he can be Lemieux and just dominate with illness and back problems and put godly numbers up to make up for it. It's just not going to happen.

    Just stay healthy and he should still be one of the greats.
     
  23. Jaded-Fan

    Jaded-Fan Registered User

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    I care, because I am old enough to remember Mario, even when he came into the league. And watching both (and admittedly biased but still) Mario was the most purely talented player I have ever seen. He had more natural talent than Gretzky, especially because his size enabled him to do things that Gretzky could never dream of doing, while having all the skills and hockey awareness that Gretzky possessed. But he was not the better player, because he could not keep on the ice.

    I care about all of the things that you talk about, but we are so spoiled having several generational players in a row, Mario, Jagr, Crosby and Malkin. So spoiled that we just shrug when talking about wondering where they will end up on the all time lists.
     
  24. Pancakes

    Pancakes Registered User

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    It's really hard to say. Sadly if he keeps being as injury prone as he is he's going to probably retire fairly early like 38-40ish. If he retires that early, he'll probably finish really high on the PPG list.

    If his body holds up his PPG is bound to drop a little bit the older he gets. Although, with conditioning and how well guys are playing lately you never know. Look at MSL, he's still dominating.

    With conditioning and how well guys are playing into their old age these days we might see an unprecedented level of domination from mid to late 30's players. What used to equal severe decline might now mean you see a late 30's Crosby still putting up 100 point seasons. If MSL can do it, why not Sid?
     
  25. Sidney the Kidney

    Sidney the Kidney 3-Peat + 1

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    Ironically, Crosby's career points per game average will benefit if he has to retire early due to injury than if he's healthy enough to play into his late 30's. If he's capable of playing into his late 30's, I can't see his average doing anything but going down.

    Also disagree that Crosby's style of game would be conducive to success in his twilight years. A lot of Sid's game is based on his explosive skating. If he loses a step (or two), it's going to affect his ability to put those pucks home that he's currently quick enough to get to.

    Also, Pascal Dupuis.
     

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