Speculation: where do you see the oilers finishing this season

[KCC]

It's going to take a lot of "believing in one another" to make the playoffs and I don't think they will. lol

 

[CanmoreMike]

Well I guess they are assuming that the Oilers outside of the top 3 are going to have another near 31st finish... which I don't think will happen. I mean it could if everything goes bad again... but it's hard to imagine guys getting like 0/2/3/4 goals each in the bottom 6 yet again.

Here's the actual stats from last season...

Drai/McDavid/RNH/Chaisson/Kassian = 394 man games and 156 goals = .396 goals per game

The rest of the Oilers forwards = 588 man games and 43 goals = .073 goals per game (which works out to an average of 6 goals over a full 82 game season... which essentially means your bottom 7 forwards on the roster are only scoring at a 6 goal full season pace... ridiculously low).


I don't think the Oilers secondary scoring will be that bad again to only score 43 goals by effectively all the forwards from #6-14 on the roster.

I also think Smith should "easily" improve on what Talbot delivered to this team last year... I'm assuming he gives the team close to 91% goaltending and I'm assuming Koskinen gives them the same as he did last year... about 90.6% again. I'm also assuming we get about a 50-50 split in the net... which might be an incorrect assumption but if/when Smith plays reasonably well... I think Tippett (who is familiar with Smith).. will play Smith a little more than many people expect him to.

I am assuming some regression from Drai and McDavid as well... and I still see this team as a ~96 point team... and if someone steps up and surprises... they should/could be a 98+ point team.

I'm not factoring a "out of no-where" great season by Persson/Nygard/Benson etc... but my gut says we could have at least one solid surprise this year... but again I'm not using that in the projections.

Essentially I'm just assuming a trend back upwards towards the mean... which this team SHOULD be capable of... not quite to the levels of the "surprising" 16/17 season... but not as bad as the past 2 seasons either... and in the end I think they are in a dogfight for a wildcard spot this year at ~96 pts.

Well said.

I figure the Oilers got 130 goals out of McDavid, Draisaitl and RNH. Now with Neal I expect at least as much.

Kassian and Chiasson combine for another 30 goals. Fifteen each. Eighteen-twelve. It’ll add up to 30.

The defence got 31 goals last year. I expect Nurse, Klefbom, Benning and someone else to be able to duplicate another 30. A combination of 9/8/7/6 from those 4 gets you 30 goals. Another 10 from the rest including subs gets you 40.

If the bottom 6 average 10 goals each - not out of the realm of possibilities - that’s another 60.

Add it up. No crazy predictions or expectations and this adds up to 260.

Do I think it’s that easy and it’ll just happen? No. But If this team plays organized and hard on pucks I don’t see why good things can’t happen.

 

[McSuper]

Where do you see the oiler finishing in the standings this year?

Not sure where they finish but I expect around 90 to 94 points . I think Benson will surprise people . I see the top 6 being the best we had in a long time

Draisaitl 95 points McDavid 125 points Kassian 50 points because you know McDavid
Benson 45 points RNH Nuge breaks 70 Neal rebounds with 4o points

 

[I am the Liquor]

Bottom five

 

[McFlash97]

If everyone stays healthy McDavid eclipses Kucherovs totals from last year, Drai hits 100 again Neal hits 25 goals , Nuge hits 75 points, Nurse breaks out big time and is force on both ends and the Oilers hit 100 points , finish 6th in the conference.

 

[CanmoreMike]

If everyone stays healthy McDavid eclipses Kucherovs totals from last year, Drai hits 100 again Neal hits 25 goals , Nuge hits 75 points, Nurse breaks out big time and is force on both ends and the Oilers hit 100 points , finish 6th in the conference.

Geez - I'd love to know what you are expecting from the 5 teams ahead of the Oilers. Three of them going to have GAA sub 1.50? Two of them will have GFA over 3.50?

 

[Louis Cypher]

If Toby's replacement scores 10 goals are we not in the playoffs? That's what I heard.

However its going to be tough without Lucic's scoring prowess though. Not sure Neil will surpass that lofty point total. Here's hoping.

Also as long as we cut that first shot goal ritual down we could see some lift there as well.

All in all I say we are in the playoffs. If not pretty damn close right to the end.

Also about f***ing time a rookie steps up and delivers.

Let's go boys!

 

[Blue Line Turnover]

I think that as long as they stick to their game plan, keep shots hard and low, look for rebounds, keep shifts short and play for each other, the Finals aren't out of the question

 

[McDrai]

Near the bottom of the western conference this season. The players we signed/acquired will probably need to have career years for us to make the playoffs and I’m not sure if players such as Benson, Jones, etc can step in right away and contribute. Usually rookies take time to adjust to the change of pace. With that being said I believe we can be in the playoff race next season as a lot of our players on the farm should be ready by then and I think we will have some cap space to play with as well

 

[McWeber]

We're going to crush the flames in the first round of the playoffs with Neal leading us in playoff goals against them and Looch eating popcorn in the pressbox.

 

[harpoon]

In the 2016-17 season he predicted something similar, was completely wrong. Instead of owning up to it being a miss on his model, he declared it was a wash

Kinda reminds me of the folks who predicted long and loud that Chiarelli just needed one more season to turn it around. Some of them were apparently so embarrassed that ‘instead of owning up to it’ they just absent themselves from the board for the better part of two seasons. Now they’re back, loud as ever, pretending like nothing happened. Can’t make it up.

 

[ToeMcDrag83]

The literal only way is to play unreal against the Pacific.
Central will have 5 teams in without breaking a sweat.

I believe Tippet's playoff Coyotes had a knack for giving their divisional opponents fits and being very well prepared for those games.
I don't see it happening, but here's hoping.

 

[thadd]

While on one hand we haven't done anything to fix all of our problems, I'm hopeful that we will be better this year. I'm sure we'll still be in it in April, but years of failure from this organization prevents me from being optimistic enough to believe we'll make the playoffs.

If Neal is in much better shape and if it's enough to make him who he was a few years ago we'll at least have 2 scoring lines even if McDavid and Drai are on 1 line.

 

[Fourier]

Near the bottom of the western conference this season. The players we signed/acquired will probably need to have career years for us to make the playoffs and I’m not sure if players such as Benson, Jones, etc can step in right away and contribute. Usually rookies take time to adjust to the change of pace. With that being said I believe we can be in the playoff race next season as a lot of our players on the farm should be ready by then and I think we will have some cap space to play with as well

Granlund's career year is 19 goals in 69 games. Josh Archibald had 12 in 68. That would be 31 goals out of two forwards. Last year is you excluded McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Chiasson, Kassian, Caggiula the forwards scored 36 goals combined. If those two alone hot their career highs, barring injury to the top guys you are probably adding 25 goals for even if everyone else is as bad as they were last year which in itself would be a feat.

 

[Weitz]

I expect regression - not growth - from the top players this year. Don't see Draisaitl matching his ridiculous shooting % and McDavid starting slow due to injury.

And the rest of the lineup isn't good at all. I won't count on rookies to make up the difference.

I voted out of it by Jan 15th. I actually think it could be earlier. I see this team coming out extremely flat this year due to a limited McDavid.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Kinda reminds me of the folks who predicted long and loud that Chiarelli just needed one more season to turn it around. Some of them were apparently so embarrassed that ‘instead of owning up to it’ they just absent themselves from the board for the better part of two seasons. Now they’re back, loud as ever, pretending like nothing happened. Can’t make it up.

still calling out posters about this like a year later? geeze, we get it dude

you were right and we were wrong...why are you still bringing it up

 

[PinSeeker]

Team will be better but goaltending will still kill them. 82-90 pts. No playoffs.

 

[dustrock]

Team will be better but goaltending will still kill them. 82-90 pts. No playoffs.

The goaltending is the biggest question mark, and if Koskinen and Smith are both terrible, we'll be done before the New Year I think.

I just don't see our young players being able to make enough of an impact and most of the teams in our division have improved. Anything's possible, there's always a team like the Islanders last year who surprise, it's just unlikely. Our forward corpse is pretty terrible.

 

[dem]

Can't imagine us not getting a top 10 pick..

 

[Captain Controversy]

Oilers will squeek in and upset the flames.

 

[Cypress]

Even though I think the team will miss the playoffs this year, I'm really excited for the season. There is a new energy for me with Ken Holland as gm now, as I trust him to have a plan and make smart moves, whereas Chiarelli I was always left trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I think we have a lot of exciting prospects that have a chance to work their way into the lineup this year, so I'm interested to see how that progresses.

We really need someone to take that 3C role to really tie together the bottom 6, which otherwise looks like an improvement from last year. And we need some reliable play from whoever fills out our top 6. I think we should have someone that can fill out our defence pairings internally, and I'm excited to see how the defence progresses over the next few seasons.

 

[FlameChampion]

I dont think the Oilers have really done enough. I think their season depends on goaltending, stability of new GM/coaches, ability to get more out of the bottom 6 and how well Neal fits in. I think theres just too many question marks on the team to be confident that they will make the playoffs. But I do think theres a chance.

There are a few things going for them I think though.

1) The pacific is weak.
2) There are so many key RFA out there that havent been signed. Like half of the teams are missing key guys. I dont get the impression that many of these high profile guys are signing soon. We all seen how Nylander played last year after sitting out. How good will the flames be if Tkachuk misses part of the season? How good will the Avalanche be without Rantanen? Jets with no Connor/Laine? It certainly opens the door more for us.

I think its going to be a bit of a weird year.

 

[CycloneSweep]

I dont think the Oilers have really done enough. I think their season depends on goaltending, stability of new GM/coaches, ability to get more out of the bottom 6 and how well Neal fits in. I think theres just too many question marks on the team to be confident that they will make the playoffs. But I do think theres a chance.

There are a few things going for them I think though.

1) The pacific is weak.
2) There are so many key RFA out there that havent been signed. Like half of the teams are missing key guys. I dont get the impression that many of these high profile guys are signing soon. We all seen how Nylander played last year after sitting out. How good will the flames be if Tkachuk misses part of the season? How good will the Avalanche be without Rantanen? Jets with no Connor/Laine? It certainly opens the door more for us.

I think its going to be a bit of a weird year.

The Pacific is weak. However Calgary, Vegas, San Jose are easily the best teams in the division. Arizona and Vancouver are better on paper too imo.

The central having a few teams missing key RFAs could help but imo it's a much stronger division than ours. If we aren't top 3 in the Pacific, we don't make it, so unless one of the big 3 division teams has major injuries, our playoff chances are close to zero

 

[LMFAO]

Even though I think the team will miss the playoffs this year, I'm really excited for the season. There is a new energy for me with Ken Holland as gm now, as I trust him to have a plan and make smart moves, whereas Chiarelli I was always left trying to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I think we have a lot of exciting prospects that have a chance to work their way into the lineup this year, so I'm interested to see how that progresses.

We really need someone to take that 3C role to really tie together the bottom 6, which otherwise looks like an improvement from last year. And we need some reliable play from whoever fills out our top 6. I think we should have someone that can fill out our defence pairings internally, and I'm excited to see how the defence progresses over the next few seasons.

Yup... not sure why we can't figure out a trade to acquire Pageau or something

Nygard - Pageau - Chiasson
Khaira - Haas - Archibald

Looks decent

 

[BudBundy]

82 points. Injuries happen on the blueline and we arent deep enough to handle them yet. And the goaltending. Oh God the goaltending. Break in Jones and maybe Benson. See what Persson is. Give Bouch a cup of coffee. Push hard next year.