When NHL opens their gates: Will the ticket prize fall down?

[Jets4Life]

And there is no way in hell any sports is going to have no fans until mid point of years 2022 that just not going to happen.

If the health department imposes regulations barring gatherings of over 1,000 people, there is nothing the NHL can do.

Cutting teams is the last resort, there is a lot of things that will happen before that like reducing the salary cap. The NHL just expanded twice collecting 1.15b dollars. They didn't cut teams after the 05 lost season. They didn't cut teams after the 08 recession they won't cut teams now. Oh there is a such concept as selling teams and NHL finding new owners or relocating a couple teams.

Apples and Oranges.

This is a major Worldwide pandemic. You cannot compare it to 2008. It's is going to be far worse, and longer in duration.

Oh btw the last league to actually folded teams was MLS in the 90's cause they were on the verge of actually shut down permanently. Its not that drastic where its a difference between having a league or having no league. If the league was in bad shape to where this virus would cause them to fold teams, they wouldn't have expanded to Vegas and Seattle in the first place, they would have relocated teams and kept at 30.

The NHL never anticipated a global pandemic when they announced expansion. This is going to be the most severe event humanity has endured since World War 2. Even worse, in an economic sense. All pro sports leagues are going to suffer, and it will takes years to have the economy rebound to pre-COVID levels, if it ever happens.

 

[gstommylee]

If the health department imposes regulations barring gatherings of over 1,000 people, there is nothing the NHL can do.



Apples and Oranges.

This is a major Worldwide pandemic. You cannot compare it to 2008. It's is going to be far worse, and longer in duration.



The NHL never anticipated a global pandemic when they announced expansion. This is going to be the most severe event humanity has endured since World War 2. Even worse, in an economic sense. All pro sports leagues are going to suffer, and it will takes years to have the economy rebound to pre-COVID levels, if it ever happens.

Its not going to last 2+ years or more. And government can't ban mass gatherings indefinitely or however long it'll take for a vaccine to happen. People will get tired of having everything shut down and start suing. and the courts will declare it unconstitutional. One state already had its stay at home order thrown out by the courts due to unconstitutional of the governor going beyond its authority.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

Unfortunately there are zero options for them once Thunder Bay didn't provide the public funding for an arena. Outside of TB, there isn't a single market, even from unavailable ones, that offers anything resembling decent travel and decent call-ups.

Saskatoon or Regina?

 

[Jets4Life]

Its not going to last 2+ years or more. And government can't ban mass gatherings indefinitely or however long it'll take for a vaccine to happen. People will get tired of having everything shut down and start suing. and the courts will declare it unconstitutional. One state already had its stay at home order thrown out by the courts due to unconstitutional of the governor going beyond its authority.

Well, I guess we will see who is right in a couple of years.

PS...which state is that?

 

[Jets4Life]

Saskatoon or Regina?

I've heard that the main arena in Saskatoon has an exclusive lease with the WHL Blades, that can only be broken by an NHL team. What about Fargo?

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

First off, the economy will be in it's worst shape since the 1930s. The NHL lost several clubs during that time. I don't think you are grasping the magnitude of the pandemic. This is likely going to last well into 2022, and the unemployment rate could reach 30%. If that happens, and 2020-21 is played with no fans, you can say goodbye to at least 5 or 6 NHL clubs. The next few years are going to be the hardest the World has adjusted to in a century. Professional sports are going to suffer greatly.

Parts of North America are already reopening, and the economies have already bottomed out and nearly every single part of USA that has reopened has had immediate reversal of economic negative growth. Absolutely nothing suggests things are economically going to continue getting worse. I think you’re making far too much of this.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

Saskatoon or Regina?

WHL won’t budge from either city, and both would have by far the worst travel in the AHL.

What about Fargo?

Not a good market for AHL Winnipeg. Is entirely Minnesota Wild territory, would need a new arena as their current one is far too smalland their attendance for current USHL team would be bottom 5 AHL attendance. I also don’t think there are any direct flights.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

You are kidding yourself if you think prices will go down.

 

[Jets4Life]

Parts of North America are already reopening, and the economies have already bottomed out and nearly every single part of USA that has reopened has had immediate reversal of economic negative growth. Absolutely nothing suggests things are economically going to continue getting worse. I think you’re making far too much of this.

This virus is going to come back. 100% certainty. There is a very legitimate chance COVID could be like HIV, meaning we will have to achieve herd immunity to this, while trying not to overburden our health care system. I'm just being realistic. Life as we know it, probably will not return to normal until summer of 2022.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

This virus is going to come back. 100% certainty. There is a very legitimate chance COVID could be like HIV, meaning we will have to achieve herd immunity to this, while trying not to overburden our health care system. I'm just being realistic. Life as we know it, probably will not return to normal until summer of 2022.

The virus will be back, but it will become part of the risks of going outside. The flu kills somewhere around half a million people annually in the world. People still went outside, sat next to other people, went to large sporting events and continued on with their lives. Death directly related to cigarette smoking killed just under half a million people in the USA alone last year, and from when I've visited I have seen countless people smoking or standing apathetically near smokers. Car accidents world wide have killed almost as many people as COVID.

People will get on with their lives like they always have. Things will change. There will be mandatory hand sanitizing stations for all large gatherings. People might stop kissing each other on the cheek. Hugs from the creepy uncle won't last as long. But, the North American economy has already bottomed up, every reliable source says it will incrementally continue as places open, nearly everywhere in North America has some sort of phased plan to resuming normalcy and North Americans will continue to improve their financial situations.

That "I'm being realistic, life as we know it has changed" is exactly what everyone said during the Recession in 2007-08, and not a single team relocated because of the Recession. It was said about SARS before that. Ebola was going to change the world. It didn't even change West Africa. It's not being realistic, it's being alarmist.

 

[Jets4Life]

The virus will be back, but it will become part of the risks of going outside. The flu kills somewhere around half a million people annually in the world. People still went outside, sat next to other people, went to large sporting events and continued on with their lives. Death directly related to cigarette smoking killed just under half a million people in the USA alone last year, and from when I've visited I have seen countless people smoking or standing apathetically near smokers. Car accidents world wide have killed almost as many people as COVID.

People will get on with their lives like they always have. Things will change. There will be mandatory hand sanitizing stations for all large gatherings. People might stop kissing each other on the cheek. Hugs from the creepy uncle won't last as long. But, the North American economy has already bottomed up, every reliable source says it will incrementally continue as places open, nearly everywhere in North America has some sort of phased plan to resuming normalcy and North Americans will continue to improve their financial situations.

That "I'm being realistic, life as we know it has changed" is exactly what everyone said during the Recession in 2007-08, and not a single team relocated because of the Recession. It was said about SARS before that. Ebola was going to change the world. It didn't even change West Africa. It's not being realistic, it's being alarmist.

If we continue with everyday life, COVID will likely kill at least 50,000,000 people in the next 18 months. The fatality rate is 30x that of a normal influenza. Additionally, it is more contagious than the flu. What people fail to realize, is that people may have been more conservative in regards to the quarantine measures of the Spanish Flu. There is zero chance teams will play in front of anywhere near 15,000+ fans in the next season.

The owners have two choices:

1. pay players a fraction of their salaries, and layoff arena staff.
2. cancel the season.

This pandemic is going to have long lasting effects on the World. I just hope a vaccine is made by this time next year.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

If we continue with everyday life, COVID will likely kill at least 50,000,000 people in the next 18 months. The fatality rate is 30x that of a normal influenza. Additionally, it is more contagious than the flu. What people fail to realize, is that people may have been more conservative in regards to the quarantine measures of the Spanish Flu. There is zero chance teams will play in front of anywhere near 15,000+ fans in the next season.

The owners have two choices:

1. pay players a fraction of their salaries, and layoff arena staff.
2. cancel the season.

This pandemic is going to have long lasting effects on the World. I just hope a vaccine is made by this time next year.

Considering we’ve seen the absolute worst of the virus, most of the world has built an immunity or like most cases are entirely asymptomatic and there’s not even a million dead, that 50 million dead count is a gross overestimation.

I would say check out the plans for leagues that are playing in the fall before you think the leagues’ only two choices are shrink or die.

 

[HugoSimon]

Its not going to last 2+ years or more. And government can't ban mass gatherings indefinitely or however long it'll take for a vaccine to happen. People will get tired of having everything shut down and start suing. and the courts will declare it unconstitutional. One state already had its stay at home order thrown out by the courts due to unconstitutional of the governor going beyond its authority.

This is just a complete fantasy. Freedom isn't what you want it to be. A public health risk pretty much nullifies any "freedoms" you can dream up.

If "freedoms" were the only thing that matter there'd be no building capacities, speed limits, taxes etc etc.

You've never lived in some form of libertarian anarchy and you're not about to enter one.

 

[HugoSimon]

The virus will be back, but it will become part of the risks of going outside. The flu kills somewhere around half a million people annually in the world.

This is like trying to compare herpes to aids. Yes they are both STD's but neither are in the same ball park.

People still went outside, sat next to other people, went to large sporting events and continued on with their lives. Death directly related to cigarette smoking killed just under half a million people in the USA alone last year, and from when I've visited I have seen countless people smoking or standing apathetically near smokers. Car accidents world wide have killed almost as many people as COVID.

Ironic example because it is super illegal to expose people to second hand smoke.

People will get on with their lives like they always have. Things will change. .

And this is said with no appreciation for history. Having no NHL due to pandemic is exactly the kind of thing that has always been happening throughout history. Change/paradigm shifts mean rapid changes, and there is no special property of the nhl that will protect it.

There will be mandatory hand sanitizing stations for all large gatherings. People might stop kissing each other on the cheek. Hugs from the creepy uncle won't last as long.

But, the North American economy has already bottomed up, every reliable source says it will incrementally continue as places open, nearly everywhere in North America has some sort of phased plan to resuming normalcy and North Americans will continue to improve their financial situations.

When you loose 50 percent of economic activity a 1 percent return to normal but it isn't remotely moving towards 70-80 percent. Automotive and real estate on their own have been anihilated by lack of immigration/people working from home. That is just one small portion of our economy.

That "I'm being realistic, life as we know it has changed" is exactly what everyone said during the Recession in 2007-08, and not a single team relocated because of the Recession. It was said about SARS before that. Ebola was going to change the world. It didn't even change West Africa. It's not being realistic, it's being alarmist.

Hockey player x goes into bankruptcy in 2008. He's told he can refinance his debts and eventually pay them off.

12 years later, he blows out his knee and still owes that debt. He tells his wife he made it through 2008(by delaying the debt payment) and this (not being able to play) is no big deal.

This is what you're saying. Guy goes broke while making money versus guy who is still broke who now can't work.

 

[HugoSimon]

Considering we’ve seen the absolute worst of the virus, most of the world has built an immunity or like most cases are entirely asymptomatic and there’s not even a million dead, that 50 million dead count is a gross overestimation.

Gross overestimation? Are you serious? The lowest number we have is something like 0.4 percent die. Globally that'd be something like 25 million people. Ignoring the health complications created by the virus, and if the second wave turns out ot be more deadly.

It's not just the 1-3 Americans that'll die from the virus. It is the large number of people suffering kidney failures, liver troubles, long disease etc. For all we know 2-3 million Americans could have cancer within a year.

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

Gross overestimation? Are you serious? The lowest number we have is something like 0.4 percent die. Globally that'd be something like 25 million people. Ignoring the health complications created by the virus, and if the second wave turns out ot be more deadly.

It's not just the 1-3 Americans that'll die from the virus. It is the large number of people suffering kidney failures, liver troubles, long disease etc. For all we know 2-3 million Americans could have cancer within a year.

That's taking the faulty assumption that everyone would get it. That's the definition of alarmism. And the definition of gross estimation.

This is like trying to compare herpes to aids. Yes they are both STD's but neither are in the same ball park.


Ironic example because it is super illegal to expose people to second hand smoke.





And this is said with no appreciation for history. Having no NHL due to pandemic is exactly the kind of thing that has always been happening throughout history. Change/paradigm shifts mean rapid changes, and there is no special property of the nhl that will protect it.







When you loose 50 percent of economic activity a 1 percent return to normal but it isn't remotely moving towards 70-80 percent. Automotive and real estate on their own have been anihilated by lack of immigration/people working from home. That is just one small portion of our economy.



Hockey player x goes into bankruptcy in 2008. He's told he can refinance his debts and eventually pay them off.

12 years later, he blows out his knee and still owes that debt. He tells his wife he made it through 2008(by delaying the debt payment) and this (not being able to play) is no big deal.

This is what you're saying. Guy goes broke while making money versus guy who is still broke who now can't work.

It is more than a fair comparison because people go into potentially deadly situations on a regular basis and don't think twice about it.

Ironic, but second hand smoke is responsible for a large percentage of tobacco-related illnesses. Not sure what the policeman are doing in America if it's illegal and there's still huge numbers of people dying annually.

Sort of like the Recession changing everything? The NHL will fold, teams can't still exist with the new conditions. Alarmism.

Places in North America have been open for a few days or aren't open at all and have already recovered. It's May. The current season would still be going on. You're thinking things are going to be messed up for years and it's already bouncing back.

Pick a better analogy. If a millionaire hockey player goes bankrupt, it is their own fault. Especially if they have 12 years to pay off their debts and still can't accumulate enough wealth to get back to even. Especially if they don't have enough skills to get a job post-pro hockey like most NHLers will need.

 

[HugoSimon]

That's taking the faulty assumption that everyone would get it. That's the definition of alarmism. And the definition of gross estimation.

For herd immunity to work it'll take 80 percent to get it.

And we'll be at that rate by christmas if we ease up on the restrictions.

It is more than a fair comparison because people go into potentially deadly situations on a regular basis and don't think twice about it.

And these people are idiots.

The only exposure most people accept is driving and it isn't hard to see that there is a growing intolerance of this crap.

Ironic, but second hand smoke is responsible for a large percentage of tobacco-related illnesses. Not sure what the policeman are doing in America if it's illegal and there's still huge numbers of people dying annually.

People are not forced into those environment. You think the police turn a blind eye when people smoke in bars?

Sort of like the Recession changing everything? The NHL will fold, teams can't still exist with the new conditions. Alarmism.

Not sure you're point?

Places in North America have been open for a few days or aren't open at all and have already recovered. It's May. The current season would still be going on. You're thinking things are going to be messed up for years and it's already bouncing back.

It's not bouncing back. The damage caused by all of this hasn't even begun to be absorbed. You don't appreciate how much our society is run by debt. When people run into economic difficulties they tend to spend far less, especially when their debt load is so high. The more people being careful the more people have to be careful because the margins are so narrow.

Pick a better analogy. If a millionaire hockey player goes bankrupt, it is their own fault. Especially if they have 12 years to pay off their debts and still can't accumulate enough wealth to get back to even.

Actually its perfect, because yes our governments have loaded us with even more debt.

Especially if they don't have enough skills to get a job post-pro hockey like most NHLers will need.

Well this is the thing our economy runs on consumption.

I.e. people consuming 2 to 3 times as much as they need.

When people start consuming what they need because they are worried about the economy tanking, they start to pull bank from over consuming.

Our economy is entirely dependent on people being over in debted.

Getting back to normal is dependent on people who are already in debt taking on even more debt in the middle of an economic crisis.

Consumer confidence tanks when there's a virus running around wreaking havoc on our society.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

What they might be able to try is socially distancing at games. I mean just a few seats distanced from one another and have the concession people bring their stuff for them. For the bathroom I don't know what they'd do.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

It would be smart for TNSE to try to come up with a plan for the Moose to play in a city other than Winnipeg for multiple reasons.

Thunder Bay would be perfect if they had the arena.

 

[Centrum Hockey]

Thunder Bay would be perfect if they had the arena.

There seems to be few good options for them a lot of the potential arenas in area's near the us border are in Minnesota Wild territory.

 

[cbcwpg]

What they might be able to try is socially distancing at games. I mean just a few seats distanced from one another and have the concession people bring their stuff for them. For the bathroom I don't know what they'd do.

While that may work in some cities because they don't sell out games and hence have some "social distancing" room available to them, how can this work anywhere where all the seats are held by season ticket holders?

 

[Barclay Donaldson]

And these people are idiots.

The only exposure most people accept is driving and it isn't hard to see that there is a growing intolerance of this crap.

People are not forced into those environment. You think the police turn a blind eye when people smoke in bars?

People regularly put themselves in the way of potentially deathly harm. And no one bats an eyelash.

Not sure you're point?

*Your* point and the point is that people have been saying "everything is going to change and the league/teams are going to fold for everything. SARS, the Recession, everything has resulted in people thinking teams are done because "it is different now."

It's not bouncing back. The damage caused by all of this hasn't even begun to be absorbed. You don't appreciate how much our society is run by debt. When people run into economic difficulties they tend to spend far less, especially when their debt load is so high. The more people being careful the more people have to be careful because the margins are so narrow.

During the Recession, the average NHL ticket price and attendance both increased. Whatever thoughts you have about debt and people reducing spending are incorrect.

Actually its perfect, because yes our governments have loaded us with even more debt.

North America is built on debt. No one is going to call it, not all of it and not soon. People's day-to-day lives aren't affected by their government's spending habits during a crisis, only when the money is used for something else like bailing out the big corporations.

Well this is the thing our economy runs on consumption.

I.e. people consuming 2 to 3 times as much as they need.

When people start consuming what they need because they are worried about the economy tanking, they start to pull bank from over consuming.

Our economy is entirely dependent on people being over in debted.

Getting back to normal is dependent on people who are already in debt taking on even more debt in the middle of an economic crisis.

Consumer confidence tanks when there's a virus running around wreaking havoc on our society.

None of this has anything to do with the NHL or people being able to go see games. The United States piled on debt during the recession in numbers comparable to what will be seen soon for COVID. And attendance and average ticket price increased. Guess Which Major Sport Is Recession Proof. Your logic isn't correct.

 

[Anthony5967]

They better think of something to draw fans because cutting the attendance and jacking up the prices when arguably 1/3 of the US is out of work won't work. May have to just take precautions and have regular attendance. They're going to lose so much money.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

While that may work in some cities because they don't sell out games and hence have some "social distancing" room available to them, how can this work anywhere where all the seats are held by season ticket holders?

Taking turns...

 

[robertocarlos]

Declare force majeuer. Cancel all ST holder agreements. Arrange seating for 3,000 fans in arena that holds 15,000. Raise prices two fold.

I don't know how an owner can say they will lose less money not playing next year when he doesn't know how things will pan out next year.